Whether or not Global Warming is Real – A View Point

7/30/2019 Whether or not Global Warming is Real A View Point

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Whether or not Global Warming is Real A View Point

Summary: It is not disputed that mean temperature of Earth has increased by

0.8 C since the early 20thcentury. Various factors affecting Earths surface

temperature have been examined and it is found that no mathematical correlation

exists between those factors and Global Warming. It is suggested that Earth

dynamically keeps its surface temperature.

The purpose of this article is not to dispute generally accepted facts or to deny

projected effects of Global Warming. The purpose of this article is to examine

whether or not evidence that has accumulated is being correctly interpreted.

Therefore cumulative evidence is generally presumed to be correct. I have

principally relied upon Wikipedia to build up this article.

According to Wikipedia:-

Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and

oceans since the late 19th century and its projected continuation. Since the early

20th century, Earth's mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8

C (1.4 F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. Warming of

the climate systemis unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain that it

is primarily caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gasesproduced byhuman activities such as the burning of fossil fuelsand deforestation. These

findings are recognized by the national science academies of all major

industrialized nations.

Climate modelprojections were summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment

Report(AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). They

indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to

rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 C (2 to 5.2 F) for their lowest emissions scenarioand 2.4

to 6.4 C (4.3 to 11.5 F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise fromthe use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.

Wikipedia further states:-

Global warming controversy


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The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, significantly more

pronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature, regarding the

nature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues include

the causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-

20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normalclimatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, and

whether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measurements.

Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions of

additional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be.

In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surface

temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused

mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of

national or international standing disagrees with this view, though a feworganizations hold non-committal position.

From 19901997 in the United States, conservative think tanks mobilized to

undermine the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challenged

the scientific evidence.

The difficulty with Global Warming is that cause-effect relationship between

increased temperature and the alleged causes has never been scientifically

established. Only certain associated changes have been alleged to be the cause.

We are not certain if these associated changes are indeed the culprit. Moreover

even these projections are based on empirically generated climate models. This is

presumably because we do not yet understand how Earth keeps its

climate/temperature. So literature has plenty of mutually contradictory

observations, claims and counterclaims. Plenty of positive feedback and negative

feedback cycles are known but all put together do not explain as to how Earth

keeps its climate/temperature within a range. Attempts to link Earths

temperature with solar constant and its variations just dont meet the eye. Solar

constant is highest during winters and lowest during summers. Variations in solar

constant do not exceed 0.1%. Wikipedia states about Solar Constant as under:-

Solar output is nearly, but not quite, constant. Variations in total solar irradiance

were too small to detect with technology available before the satellite era. Total

solar output is now measured to vary (over the last three 11-year sunspotcycles)

by approximately 0.1%; see solar variationfor details.


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The solar constant includes all types of solar radiation, not just the visible light. It

is measured by satellite to be roughly 1.361 kilowatts per square meter (kW/m)

at solar minimum and approximately 0.1% greater (roughly 1.362 kW/m) at solar

maximum. The actual direct solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere

fluctuates by about 6.9% during a year (from 1.412 kW/m in early January to1.321 kW/m in early July) due to the Earth's varying distance from the Sun, and

typically by much less than 0.1% from day to day. Thus, for the whole Earth(which

has a cross sectionof 127,400,000 km), the power is 1.7401017

W, plus or minus

3.5%. The solar constant does not remain constant over long periods of time

(see Solar variation), but over a year varies much less than the variation of direct

solar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere arising from the ellipticity of the

Earth's orbit. The approximate average value cited,1.361 kW/m, is equivalent to

1.952 calories per minute per square centimeter, or 1.952 langleys (Ly)or, in SI

units about 81.672 kJ/m per minute.

The Earth receives a total amount of radiation determined by its cross section

(RE), but as it rotates this energy is distributed across the entire surface

area(4RE). Hence the average incoming solar radiation, taking into account

the angle at which the rays strike and that at any one moment half the planet

does not receive any solar radiation, is one-fourth the solar constant

(approximately 340 W/m). At any given moment, the amount of solar radiation

received at a location on the Earth's surface depends on the state of the

atmosphere, the location's latitude, and the time of day.

The amount of solar energy Earth receives for sun is sufficient to increase surface

temperature beyond 100 C in less than one hour. Moreover amount of energy

cant be correlated with observed weather conditions, being the highest in

winters and lowest in summers. Even the extent of variation in solar constant

cant be correlated with rise of Earths temperature by 0.8 C during the last

century. Moreover it is self-evident that Earth was unable to dissipate energy it

receives from Sun; it would have been hot enough that no known life forms

except (probably) some kind of Extremophiles could have survived. Evendepletion of Ozone layer does not correlate with Global Warming.

In 2008, total worldwide energy consumption was

474 exajoules (4741018

J=132,000 TWh). This is equivalent to an average power

use of 15 terawatts (1.5041013

W). This is 0.009% of the amount of energy Earth

receives from Sun during any year. Therefore increased energy consumption due


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to increased human activity cant account for increase in mean temperature of

Earth from 13.9 C to 14.6 C (approximate increase of 5.4%) during past 100

years.

From the above discussion, it is evident that Earth rigorously keeps itstemperature and Earths temperature bears no direct correlation to amount of

energy it receives from sun or released by burning of fuels to meet demands

created by increased human activity. Further no cause-effect relationship with

accumulation of so called green house gases and Earths temperature has been

established. Increased concentration (16% to 167% since 1750) of naturally

occurring greenhouse gases does not linearly correlate with extent of reported

mean temperature change. Same is the case with increased positive radiative

forcing. Increased positive radiative forcing for different naturally occurring

greenhouse gases has increased from 0.18 W/square meter to 1.79 W/squaremeter but bears no correlation with reported temperature increase.

Therefore all that can be said at the moment is that Earths surface temperature

is the result of dynamic equilibrium which is attained and maintained by a variety

of mechanisms having positive and negative feedback loops. So the reported

increase in mean temperature of Earth may not be due to alleged accumulation of

green house gases or increased human activity but may be the result of shift in

dynamic equilibrium. How this dynamic equilibrium is determined, attained and

maintained is the key issue to be resolved if we want to understand the reason

underlying reported increase in mean temperature of Earth. Empirically worked

out climate models are really not of much help because they indicate only

association of facts and not the rationale behind those facts. Scientific resolution

of problem of Global warming is not possible in the absence of proper

understanding of the phenomenon. Last but not the least, nature is self-

perpetuating and this invariably is the result of dynamic conservation of status-

quo.

Author: Dr Mahesh C. Jain is a practicing medical doctor and has written the

book Encounter of Science with Philosophy A synthetic view. The book begins

with first chapter devoted to scientifically valid concept of God and then explains

cosmic phenomena right from origin of nature and universe up to origin of life

and evolution of man. The book includes several chapters devoted to auxiliary

concepts and social sciences as corollaries to the concept of God. This is the only


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book which deals with origin of nature and universe from null or Zero or

nothing.

http://www.sciencengod.com

http://curatio.in
http://www.sciencengod.com/http://www.sciencengod.com/http://www.sciencengod.com/http://www.sciencengod.com/

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Whether or not Global Warming is Real – A View Point