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WHERE SMART PV MEETS SMART GRID
J. POORTMANS
SCIENTIFIC DIRECTOR PV@IMEC
PART-TIME PROFESSOR@KUL
2© IMEC 2012
OUTLINE
Energy@imec: the Internet of Power
PV in a global context
PV@imec
EnergyVille: where Smart PV meets Smart Grid▸ PV in Buildings▸ PV in the Shadow▸ Predicting PV energy yield
Key messages
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
3© IMEC 2012
IMEC IN THE ENERGY CHALLENGE?
The Internet of Power
Think nano ?
Linking Nanoscale to Gigawatts / GWh
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
4© IMEC 2012
THE INTERNET OF POWER ...
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Generation Storage Distribution Flow
Internet of Data
Central Central Central Data flow known and controllable
Internet of Power
Related imec-activity
5© IMEC 2012
THE INTERNET OF POWER ...
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Generation Storage Distribution Flow
Internet of Data
Central
Ubiquitous generation of information
Central
Ubiquitous storage devices
Central
ExtremeInterconnectivit
y
Data flow known and controllable
Strongly fluctuating
Internet of Power
Related imec-activity
6© IMEC 2012
THE INTERNET OF POWER ...
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Generation Storage Distribution Flow
Internet of Data
Central
Ubiquitous generation of information
Central
Ubiquitous storage devices
Central
ExtremeInterconnectivit
y
Data flow known and controllable
Strongly fluctuating
Internet of Power
Central large-scale power
plants
Decentralized production – prosumers
Related imec-activity
PV-technology
7© IMEC 2012
THE INTERNET OF POWER ...
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Generation Storage Distribution Flow
Internet of Data
Central
Ubiquitous generation of information
Central
Ubiquitous storage devices
Central
ExtremeInterconnectivit
y
Data flow known and controllable
Strongly fluctuating
Internet of Power
Central large-scale power
plants
Decentralized production – prosumers
Balancing
Distributed storage
Related imec-activity
PV-technology
Electrochemical storage
8© IMEC 2012
THE INTERNET OF POWER ...
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Generation Storage Distribution Flow
Internet of Data
Central
Ubiquitous generation of information
Central
Ubiquitous storage devices
Central
ExtremeInterconnectivit
y
Data flow known and controllable
Strongly fluctuating
Internet of Power
Central large-scale power
plants
Decentralized production – prosumers
Balancing
Distributed storage
One-directional flow through transmission
and distribution grid
Bi-directional flow of energy
Related imec-activity
PV-technology
Electrochemical storage
Efficient convertors
9© IMEC 2012
THE INTERNET OF POWER ...
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Generation Storage Distribution Flow
Internet of Data
Central
Ubiquitous generation of information
Central
Ubiquitous storage devices
Central
ExtremeInterconnectivit
y
Data flow known and controllable
Strongly fluctuating
Internet of Power
Central large-scale power
plants
Decentralized production – prosumers
Balancing
Distributed storage
One-directional flow through transmission
and distribution grid
Bi-directional flow of energy
Stable base load
Highly fluctuating
resources (solar, wind)
Related imec-activity
PV-technology
Electrochemical storage
Efficient convertors
Energy yield prediction
10© IMEC 2012
OUTLINE
Energy@imec: the Internet of Power
PV in a global context
PV@imec
EnergyVille: where Smart PV meets Smart Grid▸ PV in Buildings▸ PV in the Shadow▸ Predicting PV energy yield
Key messages
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
11© IMEC 2012
BREATH-TAKING GROWTH ...
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Corresponding to 53 full size 1,300MW nuclear reactors … and energy wise to the annual output of 9 such reactors
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
AND TO BE CONTINUED ...
Source: Photon Consulting
UPSIDE
CONSENSUSFORECAST
Module >$2/W
Module < $1/WChina, India FiT
Japan FiT
(GW)
CAGR = 20% (2012 – 2015)
GROWTH REGIONS CAGR (2012 – 2015)
US, China,India, Japan
ROW (excl. Italy and Germany)
= 38%
= 28%
CONSENSUS FORECASTS* (2009 – 2011)
30-50%BELOW actuals
GERMANY
ITALY
JAPAN
USA
INDIA
CHINA
ROW
Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans 25-06-2013
Courtesy: Charles Gay, Applied Materials
13© IMEC 2012
PRICE COLLAPSE IN 2011-2013
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
14© IMEC 2012
EVERY CRISIS ENDS AT SOME TIME Resorption of excess PV-production capacity will take time, but first signs of slow recovery
2/3 of the value creation of the PV-system is still located in Europe – materials, equipment, design&installation
Link with local market is important for PV-systems with high added value (e.g. BIPV)
Will the PV-world after the PV-crisis be the same?
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
15© IMEC 2012
GRID PARITY: THE HOLY GRAIL?
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Courtesy of Prof. J. Luther, Fraunhofer ISE
Residential electricity price
PV electricity
price
Grid parity achieved
16© IMEC 2012
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR PV-DEPLOYMENT
The ideal place to locate PV is where consumption is located
▸ Slightly increases the need for PV-capacity (+10%)▸ Reduces need for additional
transmission/distribution (-75%)ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
www.epia.org “Connecting the Sun”
17© IMEC 2012
STORAGE “AT OR NEAR THE PROSUMERS’ LOCATION”
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
www.epia.org “Connecting the Sun”
18© IMEC 2012
IMPACT ON REQUIRED PV-COSTS
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Levelized cost of
electricity
=
Investment
cost
Maintenance cost
+
Years of operatio
n
Annual energy output
x
19© IMEC 2012
IMPACT ON REQUIRED PV-COSTS
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Levelized cost of
electricity
=
Investment
cost
Maintenance cost
+
Years of operatio
n
Annual energy output
x
Cost for energy storage
+
▸ Grid parity is a milestone, not the end goal▸ PV installed close to consumer to limit
excess PV-capacity▸ Local storage needs to integrated with the
PV system▸ Cost of local storage evolves to 10 c€/kWh
PV investment cost needs to reduced with factor 2 to 3 ! Energy output needs to be further increased
20© IMEC 2012
OUTLINE
Energy@imec: the Internet of Power
PV in a global context
PV@imec
EnergyVille: where Smart PV meets Smart Grid▸ PV in Buildings▸ PV in the Shadow▸ Predicting PV energy yield
Key messages
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
Organic PVCZTS as alternative for CIGS
Thin film photovoltaics20 % -
10 % -
30 % -
Cost(€/Wp) on module level
1.5 1 0.75 < 0.5
Go beyond current Si-PV boundaries
with industrial manufacturable
processes
Silicon photovoltaics
IMEC PV RESEARCH Efficiency targets
Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans 25-06-2013
Si-PV partners
IMEC CONFIDENTIAL
Solar cell
producers
Material
suppliers
Toolsupplie
rs
Energycompani
es
25 year solar cell research
Kuwait University
Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans 25-06-2013
Si-based photovoltaics:▸ Thanks to the Vlaams Fotovoltaisch
Initiatief!▸ 6” Screenprinted i-PERC cells > 20%▸ 6” i-PERC (p-type Si) and i-PERT (n-type
Si) cells with Cu contacts near 21%
Si-PV AND OPV PROGRAMSIT IS ALL ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE!
Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans 25-06-2013
Si-based photovoltaics:▸ 6” Screenprinted i-PERC cells > 20%▸ 6” i-PERC (p-type Si) and i-PERT (n-type
Si) cells with Cu contacts near 21%▸ World class IBC-platform with h > 23%
for Fz- and Cz-Si substrates
Si-PV AND OPV PROGRAMSIT IS ALL ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE!
Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans 25-06-2013
Substrate
Jsc [mA/cm2]
Voc
[mV]
FF[%]
Efficiency
[%]
CZ 41.4 691 81.1 23.2
FZ ** 41.60 696 80.4 23.3
** Measurement at ISE CalLab with designated illumination area (4 cm2)Designated illumination area measurement (4 cm2)
25© IMEC 2012
SOLLIANCE OPV PROGRAM OVERVIEW
▸ Program partners
WP1 WP2 WP3 WP5 WP6
Pin
WP4Reliability
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
26© IMEC 2012
ORGANIC PHOTOVOLTAICSPERFORMANCEOPV: ▸ Certified polymer cells > 9%▸ Certified polymer module > 5.5%▸ Polymer tandem ≈ 9.0%▸ Polymer triple junction > 9.5%▸ Small molecule tandems > 7.5%
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
10 solution processed layers
27© IMEC 2012
OUTLINE
Energy@imec: the Internet of Power
PV in a global context
PV@imec
EnergyVille: where Smart PV meets Smart Grid▸ PV in Buildings▸ PV in the Shadow▸ Predicting PV energy yield
Key messages
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
28© IMEC 2012
BIPVINTEGRATION IN THE CONSTRUCTION
VISIT DOW CORNING J. POORTMANS 24-06-2013
BIPV: An industry driven by the need of energy efficient buildings
Courtesy of 3E
29© IMEC 2012
BIPV: WHERE EFFICIENCY MEETS BEAUTY
No ‘silver bullet’ for all PV applications▸ PV power plants and regular rooftop systems▸ Future renewable energy demands will required
broadening the application fields
E.g. real building integrated PV (BIPV)- Facades, weak roofs, not ideal orientation, ...- Aesthetics !
Other parameters start to play▸ Flexibility in patterns and shapes▸ Good response to indirect light▸ Cost/m2 rather than cost/Wp
▸ Integrated system solutions
Further R&D essential for all these aspects
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
PV SYSTEMSTODAY
Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans 25-06-2013
After http://www.energyenv.co.uk
4
PV SYSTEMS IN THE SMART GRID ERA
Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans 25-06-2013
High-eff modules with thin BC Si
solar cells
Distributed DC to AC
conversion
Grid smoothing / balancing needed
local storage
After http://www.energyenv.co.uk
Demand side
management
4
elec. cost = f(time, season, meteo...)
SMART PV-MODULEADDITIONAL FUNCTIONALITIES
Road to EnergyVille J. Poortmans 25-06-2013
Maintaining efficiency
under non-STC operation
Integrated re-configuration series ><
parallel
Module-level DC/DC
conversion
Thinner Si and polymer layers
Design-for-disassembly
Integrated condition
monitoring
Control strategies that optimize plant energy / lifetime in synergy with the smart grid
33© IMEC 2012
PV AND THE SHADOW
Partial shadowing leads to large losses of energy yield
Energy yield can be substantially improved by dynamically reconfiguring the PV-module:▸ Integration of sensors▸ Integration of switches
Reliability should remain unaffected
Energy yield modelling to make the trade-off between additional costs and additional energy yield
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
34© IMEC 2012
ENERGY YIELD PREDICTION
Energy yield crucial for low LCOE▸ Dependent on lifetime & local
conditions▸ Long-term decision for investment
But reliable prediction of energy yield is also crucial for short-term decisions▸ Short-time weather predictions
(hours to day scale)▸ Reliable prediction of energy
“aggregator” crucial for pricing strategy
Focus on effect of non-stationary, non-homogeneous conditions (e.g. T-profile in presence of wind)
Scenario clustering approach
ROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013
H. Goverde et al. ,to be published
35© IMEC 2012
KEY MESSAGES
PV is there to stay
Flanders has a strong position in PV R&D
Performance is necessary but not sufficient
In order to remain relevant, one has to create added value on the level of PV-system▸ To increase and predict energy yield▸ To integrate more intelligence (reconfigurability)
at the level of PV-module and system▸ To integrate storage capability
imec wants to create this value together with VITO, KUL and Uhasselt in
EnergyVilleROAD TO ENERGYVILLE J. POORTMANS 25-06-2013