60
WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END? Paul Desmond, President Lowry Research Corporation www.lowryresearch.com

WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    4

  • Download
    1

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

WHEN WILL THIS OLD

BULL MARKET END?

Paul Desmond, President

Lowry Research Corporationwww.lowryresearch.com

Page 2: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1987 1990 1994 1998 2002 2008 20??

-10%

?

-20%

-30%

-40%

-50%

-60%

THE HISTORY OF BEAR MARKETS

Page 3: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

• 1929 DJIA losses not recovered until 1955

• 1962 losses set prices back to 1958

• 1973-74 decline set prices back 13 years

• 2000-2003 bear market cut portfolios in half.

• 2007-2009 losses set S&P 500 back 15 years

Page 4: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 5: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

WE’VE BEEN DEALING

WITH THE APPROACH OF

BEAR MARKETS FOR MORE

THAN A HUNDRED YEARS,

WHY DON’T WE HAVE

SOME BETTER ANSWERS?

Page 6: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

CAUSE AND EFFECT

THE CAUSES ARE ALWAYS

CHANGING

THE EFFECTS ARE

AMAZINGLY CONSISTENT

Page 7: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

The LAW of

SUPPLY and

DEMAND

Page 8: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

Chapter One of Virtually Every

Economics Textbook states,

“The Law of Supply and Demand

is the Foundation …..

…..the Starting Point…..

of ALL economic analysis.”

Page 9: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

THE LAW OF

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

If there is more Demand for a

commodity than there is a

Supply of that commodity, the

price Will Rise.

Page 10: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

THE LAW OF

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

If there is a greater Supply of

a commodity than there is a

Demand for it, the price

Will Fall.

Page 11: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

THE LAW OF SUPPLY

AND DEMAND

ONLY DEALS WITH

EFFECTS

COMPLETELY IGNORES

CAUSES

Page 12: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

SUPPLY AND

DEMAND

IS A

UNIVERSAL

LANGUAGE

Page 13: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

AT EVERY MARKET TOP,

FIRST, DEMAND BEGINS TO

FADE, CAUSING PRICES TO

WEAKEN.

SECOND, WEAKENED PRICES

CAUSE SUPPLY TO EXPAND.

Page 14: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 15: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

SELECTIVITY AT MAJOR MARKET TOPS

TOP DAY % STOCKS @ % AT OR < 2% % OFF 20% % OFF 30%

FOR DJIA NEW HIGHS OF NEW HIGHS OR MORE OR MORE

09/03/1929 2.30%

LOWRY RESEARCH

Page 16: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

SELECTIVITY AT MAJOR MARKET TOPS

TOP DAY % STOCKS @ % AT OR < 2% % OFF 20% % OFF 30%

FOR DJIA NEW HIGHS OF NEW HIGHS OR MORE OR MORE

09/03/1929 2.30% 15.62% 31.84% 18.77%

LOWRY RESEARCH

Page 17: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 18: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

IN 1927 TWO BANKERS FROM CLEVELAND TRUST DEVELOPED

THE ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE

Page 19: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

1928

Page 20: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

1929

Page 21: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

1961 1962

Page 22: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

1972 1973

Page 23: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

1987

Dow Jones Industrial Average

NYSE Advance-Decline Line

Page 24: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

1999 2000

Page 25: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

2007

Page 26: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

THE KEY TO

DETECTING MAJOR

MARKET TOPS IS TO

OBSERVE SIGNS OF

INCREASINGLY

EXTREME

SELECTIVITY.

Page 27: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 28: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 29: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

MARKETS ARE NOT HOMOGENEOUS.

A SINGLE “ALL-ISSUES” ADVANCE-DECLINE LINE HIDES A GREAT AMOUNT

OF IMPORTANT INFORMATION.

LOWRY RESEARCH

Page 30: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 31: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 32: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 33: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 34: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

➢ SMALL-CAP BREADTH USUALLY WEAKENS FIRST . . .

➢ THEN MID-CAP BREADTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN . . .

➢ BIG-CAP BREADTH IS VIRTUALLY ALWAYS THE LAST TO WEAKEN.

LOWRY RESEARCH

Page 35: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

SO, WHERE ARE WE NOW?

LOWRY RESEARCH

Page 36: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 37: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 38: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 39: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 40: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 41: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 42: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

IN CONCLUSION….

Page 43: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

BASED ON THE 88 YEAR HISTORY OF THE LOWRY ANALYSIS, THE PROBABILITIES FAVOR

AT LEAST ANOTHER SIX MONTHS OF FURTHER GAINS BEFORE

THE FINAL HIGHS IN THE DJIA AND S&P 500 (BIG-CAP) INDEXES

SEPT. 25, 2017

LOWRY RESEARCH

Page 44: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

BUT, NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN TO

SLOWLY CULL STOCKS AS THEY STOP PARTICIPATING IN THE UPTREND……

INITIALLY REINVESTING IN STRONG LARGER-CAP STOCKS……

AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN BUILDING A HEAVILY DEFENSIVE STRATEGY.

Page 45: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

Lowry Research

If You Would Like A Copy of . . . .

“The Warning Signs of Major Market Tops”

…Just Drop Off Your Business Card….. Or,

[email protected]

Page 46: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 47: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 48: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 49: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 50: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 51: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 52: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 53: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 54: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 55: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 56: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 57: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 58: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 59: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?
Page 60: WHEN WILL THIS OLD BULL MARKET END?

1929-1930