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When is 2nd generation coming ?. 7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on Renewable Energy. 05-10-2007. Agenda slide Use: Help the audience to a better understanding of the presentation progression by visualizing the agenda when changing topic. guide. Biofuels now … … next, biomass to ethanol … - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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When is 2nd generation coming ?7th Inter-Parliamentary Meeting on Renewable Energy
05-10-2007
Biofuels now …
… next, biomass to ethanol …
… biomass challenges …
… Beyond biofuels
AGENDA
Biofuels now …
Global bioethanol production growing stronglyGlobal bioethanol production growing strongly
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mio
Gal
ROW
China
Europe
North America
Brazil
Sources: US Energy Information Administration, F.O. Licht, Novozymes estimatesSources: US Energy Information Administration, F.O. Licht, Novozymes estimates
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Billi
on G
allo
ns
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production
USA Bioethanol boomEstimated
2007 production ~ 6.5bn
gal.
1
Source: 1 – U.S. Energy Information Administration/ Renewable Fuels Association; 2 - SJH & Company Inc.; 3 – Novozymes est.
1 Gallon = 3,785 liters
Jan 7, 2007
In operation 110
Construction 79
Proposed >200
American ethanol plants
Novozymes and biofuels
~10% of total revenues in 2006, ~12% of total H1 2007 revenues
20-25% growth over next 3-4 years
Largest supplier of enzymes to the fuel ethanol industry
Mainly an US business but Europe & Asia nice growth from lower levels
Collaborations in Biomass with industry leaders Poet Energy in the US COFCO in China Abengoa in Europe CTC in Brazil
… next, biomass to ethanol …
- There is a limit as to how much ethanol you can produce from grain and sugar
- You can produce much more ethanol from biomass
- If the ambitious objectives are to be carried out, we need to base production on biomass in order to produce sufficient amounts of ethanol
- Better utilization of agricultural production
- Biomass has superior environmental advantages because a larger part of the plant is used
Why biomass-based ethanol?
BIOETHANOL AND CO2 REDUCTION
Reduction of CO2 emission from producing and combusting 1MJ fuel 20
30
40
10
0Gasoline Conv. boilerCHP tech.
60
70
80
50
Energy fromstraw
2ndgeneration
85% savin
g
70% savin
g
45% savin
g
30% savin
g
Gasoline 1st gen. wheat starchg/MJ
2nd gen. wheat straw
Natural Gas
Oil Based < 10 ppm sulfur
2nd generation of biofuelbased on biomass
1st generation grain-based bio-ethanol & biodiesel
OilBased
<500 ppmsulfur
2005 10F 20F 30F
Hydrogen regenerative
~23%
~35%
~38%
~4%
2030 global vision for biofuel
Source: McKinsey Analysis
Latest quote from President Bush: “35 billion by
2017”
Cellulosic ethanol is taking off
Cellulosic ethanol developing worldwide
Three main regions have a head start in cellulosic ethanol:
the USA, China and Europe
All on-going pilot/demonstration plant projects experience very basic feedstock / logistics issues (supply chain, grinding, conveying, mixing…)
USA: New RFS of 35 bill. gal. by 2015 ~9-10% of total road transport fuel consumption 2030 target of 30% alternative fuels 6 to 8 final contenders for the DoE grant on the construction of 2 to 3 commercial
bio-refineries Overall, corn stover / fibers and wheat straw are the two types of feedstock
considered to hold the most potential Other companies are looking at woody substrates (sawdust, wood trimmings, soft
wood (pine trees, poplars), hard wood) or rice straw, citrus peels and urban waste Energy crops are being considered POET-Novozymes partnership No pilot plan running yet… but several will start up by the end of 2007
Cellulosic ethanol in Europe
EU Energy Strategy - 2020 targets: 20% renewable energy 20% reduction in GHG emissions 20% energy savings compared to
projections 10% binding min. target for biofuels
EU Biofuel directive: Encouarges member states to reach 5,75%
biofuel before 2010 Only 1,4% has been reached, but Member
States show increasing commitment Some EU Members have a biofuel share of 1+
%: AT, FR, SE, DE
Cellulostic ethanol status: A few pilot plants will run in 2007 and one
larger scale demonstration plant Main feedstock: wheat straw The drive is more technological and
opportunistic
Cellulosic ethanol in China
• E-10 required in nine provinces
• Current production ~0.25 billion gallons per year (2.3% of total Chinese consumption)
• Goal of 7.5% ethanol in 2010
• An enormous sense of urgency!
• A number of companies are going ahead in the cellulosic ethanol field (organisms, pre-treatment…)…only four companies have officially been granted a license to produce ethanol (subsidies for cellulosic ethanol are pending)
• COFCO – NZ partnership
Provinces:HeilongjiangJilinLiaoning
Province: HenanHebei
Provinces: HubeiShandongJiangsuAnhui
Cellulosic ethanol in the remaining worldLatin America•85% of all cars sold in Brazil are FFVs•Strong industry growth•Legislation on burning creating significant additional biomass increasing awareness of bagasse as an important biofuel resource
•Brazil focussing on export opportunities, target is 10% of the global demand
•International recognition of Brazil as key supplier and example of a sustainable fuel economy
•Major agricultural land expansion potential
•NZ partnership with CTC
Japan & Korea•Japan will be a net importer of ethanol from Brazil
•Biofuel target of 500 mill l. in place by 2010
•Limited feedstock availability due to limited agriculture. Wood is the primary possibility
South East Asia & Indian Sub.•Political drive for ethanol production from local feedstocks•Political instability limiting implementation of long term biofuel policy
•Biodiesel dominates the landscape due to feedstock availability
•Food for fuel debate will foster alternative feedstocks incl. lignocellulosic bionmass
Africa & Middle
East:•Potential major region for growing crops, incl. sugar cane
•No biofuels effort so far
… biomass challenges …
Cornstover
Enzymatichydrolysis
Glucose
Fermentation
Ethanol
Pre-treatment
Pre-treatedcorn
stover
What about the cost structure?
Showstopper?
Enzyme cost no longer dominates the picture
- Cost comparison after the BioEnergy Project: grain vs. biomass in USD/gallon ethanol, April, 2005*
-$1,00
$0,00
$1,00
$2,00
$3,00
$4,00
$5,00
$6,00
$7,00
Starch* Cellulose 1999 Cellulose 2005
*Modified from “Determining the Cost of Producing Ethanol from Corn Starch and Lignocellulosic Feedstocks”, NREL/TP-580-28893 joint USDA, NREL study released in October 2000.
Major cost reduction In enzyme price
Estimate for Nth-plant production, current cost based on lab-scale is $2-3/gal
Proteomic analysis of a cellulase producer
CDH
EG I
GH61C
EG IV
GH74
GH61D
CBH ICBH II
CBH I
EG V
SOD
GH61F
EG IIIGH61G
EG II
GH61B
Understanding GH61 ?
Pre-treatmen
t
EnzymeHydrolys
is
Fermen-tation
Collection
Recovery/
distillation
Enzymes are one of the keys to the process, but are no longer the major
barrier for biomass conversion
Biomass
FuelEthanol
From starch to sugar -> biomass based fuel ethanol
• Ethanol from cellulosic feedstock - market and technical leadership in the development of processes for the conversion of cellulosic biomass to economically viable ethanol. Pre-treatment, hydrolysis and fermentation expertise
• Extensive leverage from our manufacturing, R&D and marketing capabilities in Europe, North America, Latin America, India and China
• ”Cellulase Cost Reduction for Bioethanol” with the DoE as a subcontractor funded at 17.8 million USD
• Current further cellulase performance improvement through an unprecedented R&D effort
• Development of several hemicellulases
• Most importantly putting our enzymes to work through partnerships
Novozymes and cellulosic ethanol
How far to go before 2nd generation ethanol will be commercial?
The process need be up scaled from lab to factory Further reduction in overall process costs required First pilot plants are starting Larger scale demonstration plants on-line within 2-3 years Commercial plants on-line within 4-5 years
…… Beyond Biofuels
The future potential for sustainable solutions
Bio-PDO™ -DuPont/Tate& Lyle Joint Venture
Tomorrow has already started! Loudon Facility-
DuPont Tate & Lyle BioProducts October 2006
Conclusion
Novozymes is committed to actively participate in the commercial development of a viable biomass-to-ethanol process
Enzyme costs have been viewed as the major barrier for biomass conversion - this is no longer the case even though improvements still need to be achieved to make it an economically viable process
Continued enzyme research has delivered improved performance which translates into lower costs
Enzymes need to be integrated into the process developments in order to truly optimize the costs in conjunction with other parameters. We are teaming up with strong partners with complementary technologies and with whom we can develop the best solutions to achieve commercial success