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What’s the future of the independent healthcare market?
Barbara HakinChairHealth Tech Alliance
ramsayhealth.co.uk
Lis Neil, Director of Strategy
“What is the future of the independent healthcare market?” How providers can navigate the new post-covid
world
The Independent Healthcare Providers Network (IHPN) Summit
14th October 2020
Ramsay Health Care
Global Health Operator
Economies of scale
Best practice
Cost leadership
Speed to market
Innovation
#1 Australia
#1 France
#1 Scandinavia
Differentiated
Business
Scale
Diversified portfolio
Industry leading
quality
Deep and
experienced
leadership
Market Leading
Positions
Employees
77,000
Locations
480
Countries
11
Patient visits/admissions
8,500,000
4
“What’s the future of the independent healthcare market?” How providers can
navigate the new post-COVID world……..
5
What the next year will bring for the sector?
• Living with operational uncertainty, frustration &
nervousness
• Recognition that the independent sector is a key player in
supporting the NHS to clear waiting lists and deliver
solutions locally
• Continued collaboration across the independent sector
• Potential to change direction with the rise and fall of
COVID rates
• Public demanding reassurances of safety
• Acceleration of digitalisation and new pathways
• More lateral collaborations within and outside of the
industry
How can we balance private and NHS patients in light of a
public health service under strain?
• Definitely role for the private sector working with the NHS
in providing capacity challenging operational management
• Innovative approach to partnerships
• Different approach to costing and contracting models
What the impending recession will mean for demand for
private healthcare?
• Exacerbation of demand outstripping capacity
• Prioritisation of certain specialties and clinically urgent leading
to people seeking alternative private provision
• Short term disposable income before the recession takes hold
• Insurers seeking pathways and technology to control referrals
Risk of contraction of the corporate market in the longer-term
• Emerging strategies from insurers and tech companies to
capture and harness private demand
• Uncertainty could lead to more cautious decision making on
the part of the public and providers
How a safe and efficient service can be delivered in a socially
distanced world?
• New ways of delivering pathways: e.g virtual consultations,
virtual diagnosis, virtual follow up.
• Risk assessment perhaps more stringent than ever before
• We do not know what the longer term health impact of COVID
is going to be and its impact upon health and health systems
• The more we know about COVID the likelihood that clinical
safety guidance and therefore practice will change.
• Greater focus on outcomes
Andrew CoombsCommercial DirectorHCA Healthcare
IHPN Conference14 October 2020
Covid sub sector impactDiagnostics Digital Health /
Healthcare IT
Specialty Pharma /
Generics
CDMOs / CMOs
Medical /
Regulatory
Affairs
Children’s
services
ClinicsCROs
Homecare
Elderly
Residential
care
Drug discovery
/ pre-clinical
Mental Health
Private
hospitals
Positive long-term outlook
but facing challenges
Fundamentally strong
sub-sectors
WeakStrongLong term sub-sector outlook
Mid-term
COVID
impact
Highly positive
Highly
negative
Largely
unaffected
Modestly
negative
Specialist care
Source: Ernst & Young/Apposite
Traditional
Medical devices
Infection
control
UK Healthcare Market Review
Short term - what does the future holdShort term (end of 2020)
• PMI backlog – soon back to normal
• Self-pay – will probably lag - can providers convert enquiries
• International – recovery was forecast to start later this year, but second wave
• PPU’s vulnerable with a couple of exceptions
Medium term (next 2 years)• Macro-economic outlook – more downside than upside
• World recovery – global trade war (China, US), oil prices
• UK recovery + Brexit impact
• trade, ‘PMI-included’ jobs e.g. head office, City finance, legal, accounting, etc.
• Stock market, house prices, unemployment, inflation
Assumptions
• Patient confidence; a managed second wave; no bad winter flu season; no Covid outbreaks in a private hospital
Long term - what does the future holdLong term
• PMI - even more pressure for pathway management to contain costs
• Self-pay – consumer confidence as important as NHS waiting lists
• International – reasonable prospects – ongoing need, lack of local doctors, oil price recovery, although volatile with risks involved (e.g. debt)
• NHS – will the NHS become a key customer in the Central London market
• PPU – vulnerability – high acuity, bread and butter
• Hospital profitability
• Governance, Covid-related costs, wages, over-capacity, new business models
Longer term• Reduction in IPT
• Home working => Remote consultation => Outer London diagnostics => Outer London treatment
• Consultants more interested in employment due to lower risk to income
Q&A