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11/14/2012
1
The Fiscal
Showdown and
Children:
What’s at Stake.
November 14, 2012
The Fiscal
Showdown and
Children:
What’s at Stake.
November 14, 2012
11/14/2012
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Co-sponsored by
and
Joe Theissen
Senior Vice President,
Programs
Voices for America’s
Children
Moderator
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Alan Houseman
Executive Director
Center for Law and
Social Policy (CLASP)
Chair, Children’s
Leadership Council
Ellen Nissenbaum
Senior Vice President
For Government Affairs
Center on Budget and
Policy Priorities
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Deborah Weinstein
Executive Director
Coalition on Human
Needs
Huge Fiscal Decisions Lie Ahead:
The Key Policy Choices for Protecting the Poor
CHN,CLC, Voices for America’s Children
Ellen Nissenbaum
www.cbpp.org
November 14, 2012
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
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Long-Term Debt is Unsustainable
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
Number of U.S. Households Living Below World Bank
Measure of Serious Poverty in Developing Nations: Living on Less Than $2 a Day, Per Person
Cash Income Cash Income plus Food Stamps
1996 636,000 households with 1.4 million children
475,000 households
Start of 2011 1.46 million households with 2.8 million children
800,000 households
Source: Shaefer and Edin, “Extreme Poverty in the United States,” 1996 to 2011.
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
Tax cuts & UI expire in December
Sequestration hits in January
Debt limit is hit in early
2013
Current FY13 CR runs through
March 27
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
Deficit Deal:
3-legged stool
Discretionary spending
Health/other entitlements
Revenues (reduce deficit? Lower rates?)
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
The 3 legs of the stool: the central issues • “Discretionary” (appropriated) spending: we’ve
already cut $1.5 trillion since 2011. Will the Congress make further cuts in this area, below the deep cuts enacted in the Budget Control Act? If so, will nondefense spending be protected?
• Revenues: will new revenues contribute to deficit reduction, or will conservatives win and force a new round of income tax rate cuts?
• Entitlements: how much will be cut in health, and what does that mean for Medicaid? SNAP? Other low-income entitlements “off the table?”
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
KEY DECISIONS TO PROTECT THE POOR
• Averting further cuts in NDD (nondefense discretionary)
• No cuts in nonhealth low-income entitlements (SSI,etc)
• Reject deep cuts and harmful changes in SNAP
• Medicaid (protect beneficiaries, no cost shifts to states, no
per capita cap)
• No cuts or harmful changes in the refundable tax
credits for working poor (EITC, Child Tax Credit)
• Ensuring tax reform is progressive
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
11/14/2012 16
Non-Defense Discretionary Spending Cuts Far Below Historical Levels
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
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Nearly Half of NDD Spending is Grants to States; Low-Income Programs
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
There Are Both Risks and Opportunities on Taxes,
Especially for Low-Income Families with Children
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• If new tax revenue is raised, who will bear the burden? Will revenue increases
be progressive?
• How will low-wage workers fare? Some emerging proposals to make
everyone who works pay at least some federal income tax would effectively
result in a several-thousand-dollar tax increase for low-income working
families.
• A mother raising two children on full-time minimum-wage earnings now
receives a $7,000 tax credit check because of the Earned Income Tax Credit
and Child Tax Credit — essentially a large negative income tax. For her to
owe income tax would require taking more than $7,000 — the equivalent of
$3.50 an hour — away from her.
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
Most Who Don’t Owe Federal Income Tax Are Workers, Elderly, Disabled, or Students
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
The Case for Letting the High-Income Tax Cuts Expire
Proposed Extension of Bush Tax Cuts Favors Millionaires
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
Raising Threshold for Extending
Bush Tax Cuts Would Cost $366 Billion
Over First Decade
*Excludes additional savings from reduced interest on the debt. **Savings exclude any reductions in estate tax cuts. Source: Joint Committee on Taxation
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
Large Deficit-Reduction Packages Have Included Large Revenue Increases
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
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Tax Expenditures are Substantial
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
BOTTOM LINE: A Balanced Plan REVENUES
• Bipartisan commissions all agree
• Getting to $2+ trillion
• $1.5 trillion cuts already enacted
• What’s “off the table?”
• Two big budgetary “losers” w/o major revenues
• Big hit on federal funding for state governments?
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Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
cbpp.org
Core Principles for Deficit Reduction
• Requires substantial new revenues & spending cuts
• Don’t increase poverty or income inequality.
• End the 2001/2003 tax cuts for the wealthiest 2%
• Factor in the $1.5 trillion spending cuts already made
• No more cuts in total discretionary spending below BCA
• Don’t shift costs to states (especially Medicaid)
• No structural changes or harmful reforms in Medicaid or SNAP
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Take Action to Protect Children
Deborah Weinstein
Coalition on Human Needs
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Impact of Automatic Cuts on Children
(aka “sequestration”)
750,000 – 900,000 fewer infants, children and moms receiving WIC
80,000 fewer children with child care assistance
96,000 fewer children in Head Start
413,000 fewer adults and youth getting job training
1.8 million fewer low-income schoolchildren with reading and math help
5 million fewer families will receive prenatal care and other maternal and child health services
212,000 fewer children vaccinated against childhood diseases
27,000 fewer infants receiving special education early intervention services
Medicaid and SNAP
• Medicaid serves one-third of all children in the
U.S.
House-passed budget would cut Medicaid
by 1/3 ($810b) by 2022
• SNAP/food stamps served 46.6 million people
in July 2012, nearly half of them children.
House-passed budget would cut SNAP by
$134 billion by 2022 – could mean
8 million people denied food aid
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Tax Credits, UI, SNAP lift families out of
poverty
All children lifted out of poverty
by EITC and CTC, 2011: 4.9 million All people lifted out of poverty by
UI, 2011: 2.3 million
All people lifted out of poverty by
SNAP, 2011: 3.9 million (1.7m children)
source: U.S. Census Bureau
Strengthening America’s Values and Economy
(SAVE) For All
Letter signed by 1,900+ organizations
nationwide
Protect low-income
and vulnerable
people
Promote job creation
to strengthen the
economy
Increase revenues
from fair sources
Seek responsible
savings from the
Pentagon and other
areas
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What we’re up against
• CEO’s ready to spend $60 million to get a
“balanced plan” (see Kids Not CEO’s, at
www.Americansfortaxfairness.org)
• “Deficit scolds” using
fear of fiscal “cliff” to
call for huge spending cuts
• Little will to invest in rebuilding
the economy – kids (and former kids) will pay
But! There is recent precedent
for beating piles of CEO $
People spoke out
through the vote.
Now that the election is
over, we still need to
speak out.
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Ways to be heard:
Easiest First:
Send an email:
SAVE for All
emailable letters
to Congress:
Go to
www.chn.org/takeaction Tell your networks to
send it too!
Pledge for
children
www.voices.org
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Meet with Senators
By Phone In person
Get in the press:
• Opinion pieces:
Op-eds
Letters to the Editor
Blogs
Talk to editorial boards
CHN can help:
contact Angie Evans,
CLC can help with op-eds:
contact Amy Harfeld, [email protected]
• Hold events:
Site visit
Release a report
(CHN will have state
fact sheets you can
use)
Stand in front of
senator’s office
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Call in Day: November 28
Key messages, whatever you do
• If your group has signed SAVE for All letter,
mention it and how many groups have
signed
• If you’ve signed the Voices pledge with many
others in your state, talk about that
• Talk about key choices…
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A Choice:
The cost of continuing
the favorable tax
treatment for hedge fund
managers:
$21 billion over
10 years
The cost of avoiding
sequestration-level cuts
for housing vouchers and
WIC:
$21 billion over
10 years
Choice #2
Spend $156 million for 2
V-22 Osprey helicopters,
which cost 5 times as
much as other
helicopters and don’t
work well.
OR
Provide low-cost
child care to 22,000
children
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Choice #3
Keep estate tax low:
• Helps 7,400 estates nationwide, who get $1.1 million more each than if at 2009 levels.
• Helps 140 Ohio estates.
OR
• Preserve refundable tax credits for 13m families; 25.7m children.
• Helps 500,000 Ohio families; nearly 1 million children.
Source: Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities
We can help!
• Fill out survey to ask for help in specific
areas
• We’ll send a follow-up email with more
resources
• Contact Angie Evans ([email protected]) for
more info about holding meetings or press
activities
Just don’t be silent – too much is at stake!
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Thanks!
