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WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNER Barcelona, July 5 of 2018

WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

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Page 1: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERBarcelona, July 5 of 2018

Page 2: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

• Can we discern a normal ocurring from a postnormal one?

• Are phenomena postnormal or do they become so?

Page 3: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Can we discern a normal ocurring

from a postnormal one?

Page 4: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

What is normal?

Page 5: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Normal in PNTWe take normal to be that which is frequently encountered: what is accepted as the dominant way of being, doing and knowing, conventionally seen as the standard, dictated by convention and tradition, backed by disciplinary structures and scholarship and what we are able to predict and control.

(Z. Sardar, Postnormal Times revisited)

Page 6: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Concept coined by Venkatesh Rao in ‘Welcome to the Future Nauseous’. • Why the future is always going to happen and not

happening?Manufactured Normalcy Field (MNF)

Life as we live it has this familiar sense of being a static, continuous present. Our ongoing time travel (at a velocity of one second per second) never seems to take us to a foreign place.

Manufactured Normalcy

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MNF in PNTA means of re-orienting our perceptions of what is and is not normal, and as a field that expands and contracts relative to our individual or communal focus.

(Sardar & Sweeney)

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Page 9: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

MNF in PNT

Page 10: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

MNF in PNT

• Determines what we can see and understand.• Cultural equivalent to automatic body

functions.

• Intellectual software.• Heavily influenced by traditional learning

practices: linearity, dichotomy, induction, etc.

Page 11: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Are phenomena postnormal? or

become postnormal?

Page 12: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

If they are already Postnormal, then we are dealing with an epistemological issue.If they become Postnormal, then we have to understand the process they they undergo to become so.

Page 13: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

PN Change

Page 14: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Postnormal Creep

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The process by which any given phenomenon develops its PN potential to become fully postnormal.

Postnormal Creep (PNC)

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Uncertainty

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Surface Uncertainty

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Shallow Uncertainty

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Deep Uncertainty

Page 20: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Surface Uncertainty

Shallow Uncertainty

Deep Uncertainty

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So, as the PN Creep progresses

• The 3Cs overlap more and more

• Uncertainty grows and deepens

But, what is our typical response to it?

Page 22: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Business as usual

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Yet, what is it happening?1. We are immersed in a process of PN Change.

2. The 3Cs are becoming evident as they overlap

3. The uncertainty is becoming greater and deeper.

4. However, our ability to react to all this is determined by our awareness of the creep.

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Ignorance

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Uncertainty

Ignorance

Page 26: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

MNF

Uncertainty

Ignorance

Page 27: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

The MNF when in a PN Creep

MNF SOM 3Cs unnoticed Linearityreigns We know Business

as Usual

Contradictions SurfaceUncertainty

Linearitytested

Plain Ignorance Learn

Complexity Shallow Uncertainty

Linearity challenged

Vincible Ignorance

Enhance awareness

Chaos Deep Uncertainty

Linearityabandoned

Invincible Ignorance Unlearn

Page 28: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Surface Uncertainty

Shallow Uncertainty

Deep Uncertainty

Plain Ignorance

VincibleIgnorance

Invincible Ignorance

Learn Awareness Unlearn

Page 29: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

MNF

Surface Uncertainty

Plain Ignorance

Shallow Uncertainty

Vincible Ignorance

Deep Uncertainty

Invincible Ignorance

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MNF

Postnormal Lag

Uncertainty

Ignorance

Page 31: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

• The perceptual state of denial or disavowal in the face of a postnormal situation.

• It PNT Theory is represented by the ignorance inability to catch up with uncertainty.

• It denotes a potential for a faster and more abrupt PN Creep.

Postnormal Lag (PNL)

Page 32: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

PN Change

MNF

Surface Uncertainty

Plain Ignorance

Shallow Uncertainty

Vincible Ignorance

Deep Uncertainty

Invincible Ignorance

Postnormal Burst

PNL

PNC

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• The culmination of a PN Creep that takes the situation to a point that either it’ll collapse or it’ll begin a new cycle.

• In PNT Theory it is represented by the total overlap of the 3Cs and indicates the reset of the MNF.

Postnormal Burst (PNB)

Page 34: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

• If we are unable to overcome PN Lag, we will be carried away by the PN Creep and the PN Burst.

• But if we are able to adjust the MNF to the advancement of the PN Creep we will be able to navigate it.

Page 35: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

Our best option in front of a PN Creep is to anticipate it so we can defuse its worse aspects and/or impacts.

Page 36: WHAT’S AROUND THE CORNERxodel.diba.cat/sites/xodel.diba.cat/files/whats_around_the_corner.pdf · Ignorance Shallow Uncertainty Vincible Ignorance Deep Uncertainty Invincible Ignorance

http://postnormaltim.es

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cppfs.org@CPPFS