What will Happen in the Future of Human Society - iFest08 will Happen Next ? Emergence of New Economic Principle. ... Social Entrepreneur for Ecology ... Paradigm Change What will

What will Happen in the Future of Human Society ?

Hiroshi Tasaka

Professor at Tama UniversityPresident of Think Tank SophiaBank

Copyright 2008, Hiroshi Tasaka 1

First Question

Can We Predictthe Future ?


The Answer is

No


Because

“A small fluctuationwill change

drastically the future of the evolution of a system.”

Ilya Prigogine


In Other Words

Butterfly Effect


Chaos Theory

A small butterflyin Beijing

would cause a huge hurricane

in New York.


So

WeCannot

Predict the Future.


But

We Can

Foresee the Future.


In Other Words

WeCannot

Predict Events.


WeCan

Foresee Trendsand

Paradigm Changes.


In What Way ?


ByPhilosophy


DialecticPhilosophy


byGeorg Hegel


byExistentialism

ofJean Paul Sartre


byZen Buddhism


byTaoism


What is Dialectic ?

Five Lawsof

Dialectic


　　

Law of Spiral Up Process　　

Law of Mutual Infiltration Process　　


　 Law of Double Denial Process　　

Law of Quantity to Quality Process　　

Law of Sublation of Contradiction


What is the Most Important

Lawto Foresee the Future ?


Law of Spiral Up Process


What isthe Law of Spiral Up Process ?

Development of the Worldis like

Climbing UpA Spiral Staircase.


Another Expression

“Old Thing”Once Disappeared

will Revivewith “New Value”


Where are Examples ?

Many Examplesin

The Internet Revolutionand

The Web2.0 Revolution


Example

Auctionand

Reverse Auction


What is “New Value” ?

In the PastFor Hundreds of People

At PresentFor Millions of People


Another Example

E mail

Revival of “Letter”


Another Example

E Learning

Revival of “Tutorial System”


What isthe Second Important

Lawto Foresee the Future ?


Law ofMutual Infiltration Process


What is the Law of Mutual Infiltration Process ?

Two Opposite Principlesin Competitionwill Fuse into

A New Principle.


Where are Examples ?

Policy ofLabour

and Conservative


Another Example

Principle ofSocialism

andCapitalism


Example of the Internet

Role ofProducer

andConsumer


Example of the Internet

“Pro-sumer Development”on the Web

byAlvin Toffler


Important Question

Why DialecticNow ?


Dialectic Lawhas been

Happeningin the Past History.


Because of

Dog Year (7times faster)Mouse Year (18times faster)

Acceleration ofChange


In the Past

We couldClimb Up

A Spiral StaircaseJust for a Few Steps

in Our Lifetime.


But Now

We areRunning Up

A Spiral Staircase.


In the Past

Spiral Up Processwas An Interest

only forHistorian.


But Now

Spiral Up Processis An Interest

even forBusinessperson.


Then

What Paradigm Changescan be foreseen

byDialectic ?


EightParadigm Changes


FirstParadigm Change

What will Happen toEconomy ?


Paradigm Change

Monetary Economyto

Voluntary Economy


Spiral Up Processof Economy

Old Voluntary Economywill Revive

with “New Value”.


What isVoluntary Economy ?

An Economydriven by

the Motivation of Peopleto “Satisfy Mind”


What is Monetary Economy ?

An Economydriven by

the Motivation of Peopleto “Acquire Money”


Example of the Internet Revolution

Linux Project

byLinus Torvalds


Example of the Web2.0 Revolution

Customer Generate Contents

Knowledge of Q&A CommunityGrassroots Critics of Amazon

Grassroots Movies of You Tube



Local Communityto

Global Community



Invisible Economyto

Visible Economy


What will Happenafter

the Revival ofVoluntary Economy ?


Mutual Infiltration


In Other Words

Merger ofMonetary Economy

andVoluntary Economy


Example

Google, Amazon, You Tube

Fusion ofProfitable Business Model

andConsumer Generated Contents


What will Happen Next ?

Emergence ofNew Economic Principle


SecondParadigm Change

What will Happen toInnovation ?


Paradigm Change

Beneficiary Innovationto

Participatory Innovation


What isBeneficiary Innovation ?

InnovationPromoted by

Governments and Large Companiesfor

Grassroots Consumersas Beneficiary


What is Participatory Innovation ?

InnovationPromoted by

the Participation of Grassroots Consumer


Example

Innovation of Social Systems

byOpen Source Policy Making


Examples

Innovation of Products and Services

byPro-sumer Development


Why doesthe Paradigm Change Happen ?

Revival of the Way of Innovation

in Primitive Community


ThirdParadigm Change

What will Happen toDemocracy ?


Paradigm Change

Indirect Democracyto

Neo Direct Democracy


What is Neo Direct Democracy

“Direct Democracy”in True Meaning


What is Democracy ?

Democracyis not only

the Problem of “Participation to Decision Making”


What is Democracy ?

Democracyis but also

the Problem of “Participation to Innovative Action”


What is Democracy ?

Democracyis not only

the Problem of “Politics”


What is Democracy ?

Democracyis but also

the Problem of “Economy” and “Culture”


Until Now

Economy and Culturehave been

Indirect Democracy.


Until Now

Companieshave been

Representatives of Consumersby using

Market Research.


From Now

Consumerswill be able to

Design, Produce and Usewhat they want.


In Other Words

What you Desireis

What you Get.


Spiral Up Processof

Democracy


FourthParadigm Change

What will Happen toOrganization ?


Paradigm Change

Profit Organization v.s. NPOto

Social Enterprise


What will Happen to Organization ?

Mutual Infiltrationof

Profit Organizationand

Non-profit Organization


Example

Corporate Social Responsibility(CSR)

Movement fromProfit Organization to

Non-profit Organization


Example

Social Entrepreneur

Movement fromNon -profit Organization to

Profit Organization


What will Happenafter Infiltration ?

Social Enterprise

To Contribute to Societythrough Main Business

To Create a Cash Flowfor Sustainable Contribution


FifthParadigm Change

What will Happen toTalent ?


Paradigm Change

Single Talent Professionalto

Multi Talent Professional


What will Happen toTalent ?

Web2.0 Revolutionwill make

PeopleRather Easyto become

A Professional.


What will Happen toSociety ?

“Da Vinci Society”

Multi Talents Flowers in People like

Leonard Da Vinci


Example

Sales Manager in a CompanyMember of Pro-sumer CommunitySocial Entrepreneur for Ecology

Music Composer on the WebSeries of Essay on the BlogShort Movies to You Tube


SixthParadigm Change

What will Happen toPersonality ?


Paradigm Change

Single Personality Lifeto

Multi Personality Life


What will Happen to Personality ?

Web2.0 Revolutionwill Enable

Peopleto Express Themselves

in Many Ways.


Why isExpressing Oneself

so Important ?


Expressing Oneselfis

A Healing


Why is that a Healing ?

WeAlways Choose

a “Persona”to Adopt Oneself

to the Circumstances


There areMany Personalities

Deep Insideof Us


But We Always

Repress Most of Themto Avoid

Confusion in Daily Life.


How Can WeExpress

Hidden Oneself ?


Three Ways

Anonymous MessagePlaying a Person in DramaNon Language Expression


What isthe Meaning of

Web2.0 Revolutionin this Context ?


SeventhParadigm Change

What will Happen toWorld View ?


Paradigm Change

Mechanical System Paradigmto

Living System Paradigm


What isMechanical System

Paradigm ?


A tendency to thinkthat

the world is likea huge mechanical system

andwe can design and manipulate it freely.


Examples

Typical Wording

Re-engineering of CompanyRe-structuring of System

Blue Print of Society


What isLiving System

Paradigm ?


The way of thinkingthat

the world is likea great living system

which we cannot design and manipulate

intentionally.


Why does this

Paradigm ChangeHappen ?


Because ofInternet Revolution

andWeb2.0 Revolution?


The Revolutionsmake

Corporations, Markets and Society

more “Inter-related”.


Then

Systems of Corporations, Markets

and Society will evolve into

“Complex Systems”.


What isComplex System ?


A SystemCharacterized by

Coherence, Self OrganizationEmergence, Co-evolution

EcosystemButterfly Effect etc.


What isthe Essence of

Complex System ?


Living System


The Insight of Gregory Bateson

Complex SystemSeems to behave

as a“Living System”.


Internet Revolutionand

Web2.0 Revolutionwill naturallyRequire Us


to Changethe Paradigm

fromMechanical System Paradigm

toLiving System Paradigm


Because

Corporations, Marketsand

Societywill Become

Living Systems.


And Because

There will be CreatedA Huge

Ecosystem of Minds.


Example

Key WordsIn Web2.0 Revolution

Wisdom of CrowdsCollective Intelligence


What is Next ?


Collective Intelligenceto

Collective Consciousness


Collective Consciousnessto

Collective Sub-consciousness(Carl Gustav Jung)


The Insight ofGregory Bateson

Ecology of Mind


Why is Living System Paradigm

So ImportantNow ?


All of Global Problemsincluding Global Warming

are the Problems

of Complex Systems.


EighthParadigm Change

What will Happen toCivilization ?


Important Question


How to Cope with the Complex Systems

as“Living Systems”


Seven Problems of Complex Systems

Impossibility of AnalysisImpossibility of PredictionImpossibility of DivisionImpossibility of ControlSensitivity to Small InformationSensitivity to FluctuationFrequent Change of Law


Seven Pillars of Wisdom forComplex Systems

Not to Analyze, But to Use Intuition and Insight.Not to Predict the Future, But to Create it.Not to Divide, But to Treat as a Whole.Not to Control, But to Promote Emergence.Not only Share Information, But also Create Coherence.Not to Use Large Power, But to Use Butterfly Effect.Not to Learn Law, But to Change Law.


Where is the Wisdomto Cope with

Complex systemsas

Living System ?


In Old Communityand

in Old Societyof Each Country


Spiral Up Processof

Civilization


Revival of Old Value System

and Old Civilization


Then

What is the Mutual Filtration Process

ofCivilization ?


Eastern Civilizationand

Western Civilization


The History of Humankindis

Climbing Up A Spiral Staircase.

Documents

What will Happen in the Future of Human Society - iFest08 will Happen Next ? Emergence of New Economic Principle. ... Social Entrepreneur for Ecology ... Paradigm Change What will