What the World Is Thinkingsiteresources.worldbank.org/INTMIGDEV/Resources/...What the World Is Thinking . 1 | What the World Is Thinking 2 | Human Behavior, Economic Outcomes ... excellent,

What the World Is Thinking

1 | What the World Is Thinking 2 | Human Behavior, Economic Outcomes 3 | Complete Country List 4 | Asking the Right Questions 5 | Driving the Right Decisions 6 | Performance Indexes10 | Methodological Design11 | Sampling12 | Statistical Validity13 | Access the Gallup World Poll

What could you do differently if you knew what the whole world was thinking . . . all of the time?

Imagine the possibilities. What could you do with constant access to the

opinions and behaviors of 6 billion global citizens?

The Gallup World Poll, an entity like nothing of its kind, brings the thoughts and actions of the world’s population to life. The Gallup World Poll is a new way to view the world. More important, the World Poll is the single most accurate source of global behavioral economic data in existence today — the source necessary to drive change and create new opportunities around the world.

Innovators look for unique and original ways to drive change. Global innovation in economics, social well-being, national leadership, food and shelter, and dozens of other areas depends on accurate understanding of the world’s citizens.

You can drive change with the Gallup World Poll.

Copyright © 2008 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. 1

Human Behavior,

Economic Outcomes

The Gallup World Poll represents a new institution of behavioral economic data reported by country and includes questions about almost every critical subject. The Gallup World Poll surveys global citizens about well-being, war and peace, law and order, hopes and dreams, healthcare, suffering and striving, personal economics, poverty, environmental issues, availability and quality of jobs, and many other economic and social issues.

There is a great deal of classic economic data that record an infinite amount

of human transactions, from GDP to unemployment to birth and death

rates, and that indicate what human beings are doing. Conversely, there

has not been a systematic account of what human beings are thinking.

Until now.

2 Copyright © 2008 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

Afghanistan

Albania

Algeria

Angola

Argentina

Armenia

Australia

Austria

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

Belarus

Belgium

Belize

Benin

Bolivia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Botswana

Brazil

Bulgaria

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cambodia

Cameroon

Canada

Central African Republic

Chad

Chile

China

Colombia

Congo (Kinshasa)

Costa Rica

Croatia

Cuba

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denmark

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

Estonia

Ethiopia

Finland

France

Georgia

Germany

Ghana

Greece

Guatemala

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Hong Kong

Hungary

India

Indonesia

Iran

Iraq

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Jamaica

Japan

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Kenya

Kosovo

Kuwait

Kyrgyzstan

Laos

Latvia

Lebanon

Liberia

Lithuania

Macedonia

Madagascar

Malawi

Malaysia

Mali

Mauritania

Mexico

Moldova

Mongolia

Montenegro

Morocco

Mozambique

Myanmar (Burma)

Namibia

Nepal

Netherlands

New Zealand

Nicaragua

Niger

Nigeria

Norway

Pakistan

Palestinian Territories

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Puerto Rico

Romania

Russia

Rwanda

Saudi Arabia

Senegal

Serbia

Sierra Leone

Singapore

Slovakia

Slovenia

South Africa

South Korea

Spain

Sri Lanka

Sudan

Sweden

Switzerland

Taiwan, Province of China

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Thailand

Togo

Trinidad and Tobago

Tunisia

Turkey

Uganda

Ukraine

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

United States

Uruguay

Uzbekistan

Venezuela

Vietnam

Yemen

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Complete Country List* The Gallup World Poll surveys citizens in more than 140 countries, representing 95% of the world’s adult population. Below is a list of the areas across the globe where Gallup researchers and interviewers collect the thoughts, opinions, and behaviors of the world’s citizens.

*Country list subject to change


The power of the Gallup World Poll lies in asking the right questions.

With the goal of establishing the world’s foremost public opinion and

behavior research platform, Gallup’s world-class researchers created

the World Poll questionnaire in collaboration with the leading behavioral

economists and well-being scientists around the globe.

Asking the Right Questions The core question items of the Gallup World Poll measure the most essential and critical thoughts and actions of the world’s citizens.

The following pages offer just a glimpse of the hundreds of World Poll core question items and the Gallup WorldView, the dynamic Web-based platform used to access the World Poll data. What could you do with the knowledge and understanding of the answers to these kinds of questions?

Hundreds of core

question items,

measuring the most

important global

issues, asked in

more than 140

countries worldwide


Driving the Right Decisions In addition to these core items, the Gallup World Poll also asks hundreds of region-specific questions around the globe to gauge the unique behavioral climate in the world’s different countries and local areas. Gallup asks both the core and region-specific questions over time. This creates a constant flow and update of information and gives World Poll users the ability to compare data and spot key trends.

Again, the questions on the inside pages comprise just a fraction of the items the Gallup World Poll asks. This extensive, continuous survey provides a new access point to the voices, hearts, and minds of the majority of the Earth’s population.

Gallup constantly refines and evaluates the question items in an effort to precisely study the opinions and actions of global citizens. Why? Because the Gallup World Poll strives to provide users with the most complete information in each of the stages of Gallup’s behavioral economic model for societies (below).

The combination of the core questions and the country- and region-specific items allows the Gallup World Poll to accurately measure key indicators around the globe such as law and order, food and shelter, economics, health, well-being, and engaged citizenship, among others. These issues correlate with world development indicators such as GDP and brain gain.

Simply, the Gallup World Poll question items drive understanding of the different correlations between global opinions and behaviors and specific, classic economic data and indicators — a complete understanding of the world.

Hundreds of region-

and country-specific

question items,

uncovering the

critical opinions and

behaviors of the

world’s citizens

What change could

you bring with the

knowledge and

understanding of

these global opinions

and behaviors?


Asking Questions. Understanding the World. The Gallup WorldView, below, gives users a dynamic interface through which to access the answers to

the hundreds of World Poll questions, a sampling of which are highlighted on the following pages.

Do you believe the current

economic conditions in this country are good

or not?


economic conditions in

the city or area where you live are good, or not?

How would you rate

economic conditions in

this country today — as

excellent, good, only fair, or

poor?

In your country, do you

have confidence in each

of the following, or not?

How about financial institutions or banks?

In this country, are you

satisfied or dissatisfied

with efforts to increase the

number and quality of jobs?

Right now, do you think that

economic conditions in this country, as a whole,

are getting better or

getting worse?

Right now, do you think

that economic conditions in

the city or area where you

live, as a whole, are getting

better or getting worse?

Thinking about the job situation in the city or

area where you live today,

would you say that it is now

a good time or a bad

time to find a job?

Have you donated money to

a charity in the past month?

Have you helped a stranger

or someone you didn’t know

who needed help in the past

month?

Have you voiced your opinion to a public official in the past month?

Have you volunteered

your time to an organization

in the past month?

Are you satisfied or

dissatisfied with the city or

area where you live?

Do you approve or

disapprove of the

leadership of the city or



economic conditions in the

city or area where you live

are good, or not?

In the city or area where

you live, are you satisfied or

dissatisfied with the beauty

or physical setting?

In the next 12 months, are

you likely or unlikely to move

away from the city or area

where you live?

Is the city or area where you

live getting better or getting

worse as a place to live?

Right now, do you think

that economic conditions in

the city or area where you

live, as a whole, are getting

better or getting worse?

Thinking about the job situation in the city or

area where you live

today, would you say that it

is now a good time or a bad

time to find a job?

Would you recommend

the city or area where you live to a friend or associate

as a place to live, or not?

Do you think the

government of your

country is doing enough

to fight corruption, or not?

Do you think the level of

corruption in this country

is lower, about the same, or

higher than it was 5 years

ago?

Is corruption widespread

throughout the government

in this country, or not?

Is corruption widespread

within businesses

located in this country, or

not?

Was there at least one

instance in the last 12

months when you had to

give a bribe or present, or

not?



with your freedom to choose what you do with your life?

Once again, imagine a

ladder with steps numbered

from zero at the bottom to

ten at the top. Suppose

the top of the ladder

represents the best possible situation for this country and the

bottom represents the worst

possible situation. Please

tell me the number of the

step on which you think this

country stands at t

Are you doing full-time

housework, caring for children (yours or other

children) or caring for

others, but are not paid for

it?

Are you self-employed

or make money or barter by

working for yourself by doing

domestic work, farm work,

odd jobs, or working for your

own business?

Could you tell me what your

religion is?

Are you planning to start a business of your own in

the next 12 months, or not?

Can people in this country

get ahead by working hard, or not?

If someone wants to start a

business in this country, can

they feel very confident that

their business will do well?

If someone wants to start

a business in this country,

can they feel very confident

that they will easily find

hardworking and

qualified employees

when they need them?



can they trust the government to allow

their business make a lot of

money?



can they trust their assets

and property to be safe at all

times?



with efforts to increase the

number and quality of jobs?

In general, is it easy for

anyone to obtain a loan to start a business in this

country, or not?

Is the city or area where you

live a good place or not

a good place to live for

entrepreneurs forming

new businesses?

Other than your family

members, is there

someone you trust

enough as to make them

your partner to start a

business?

How much do you know

about global warming or

climate change?

How serious of a threat is

global warming to you

and your family?


satisfied or dissatisfied with

efforts to preserve the environment?


you live, are you satisfied

or dissatisfied with the

quality of air?




quality of water?

temperature rise is a

part of global warming or

global change. Do you think

rising temperatures are a

result of human activities, or

a result of natural causes?

Have you avoided using

certain products that harm the environment in the

past year?

Have you voluntarily

recycled newspapers,

glass, aluminum, motor oil,

or other items in the past

year?

Have there been times in the

past twelve months when

you did not have enough

money to buy food that

you or your family needed?

Have there been times in

the past twelve months

when you or your family have

gone hungry?

Are you satisfied or

dissatisfied with your

personal health?

Did you exercise, or have a

lot of physical activity,

yesterday?

Did you experience

depression during a lot of

the day yesterday?

Did you experience the

following feelings during a

lot of the day yesterday?

How about physical pain?

Did you have enough

energy to get things done

yesterday?

Did you smoke yesterday?

Do you have any health problems that prevent

you from doing any of the

things people your age

normal ly can do?

In this country, do you

have confidence in the

healthcare or medical

systems, or not?




availability of quality healthcare?

Now, please think about

yesterday, from the morning

until the end of the day.

Think about where you were,

what you were doing, who

you were with, and how you

felt. Did you eat healthy

all day yesterday?

Comparing the quality of products manufactured

in China with those

manufactured in this

country), would you say

products made in China

are generally of superior

quality, inferior quality, or the

same quality?

In the past 12 months,

would you say the amount

and variety of Chinese

products available in this

country has increased,

remained about the same, or

decreased?

Do you feel safe walking

alone at night in the city or



you live, do you have

confidence in the local

police force, or not?

Have you been

assaulted or mugged?

Have you had money or

property stolen from

you or another household

member?

Do you approve or

disapprove of the job

performance of the leader or head or president, etc. of this country?

Do you approve or


performance of the leadership of this

country?

Do you approve or


performance of the

leadership of Canada?

china? France? Germany?

India? Japan? Russia? The

european union? The

U.K.? The u.s.a.? The

united nations?

Do you approve or

disapprove of the leadership

of the city or area where you

live?


have confidence in the healthcare or medical

systems, or not?

In this country, do you have

confidence in the honesty of elections, or not?



judicial system and

courts, or not?



national government, or

not? How about national government?

In this country, do you have

confidence in the quality and

integrity of the media,

or not?



military, or not?

Are you planning to

move permanently to that

country in the next 12

months or not?

Are you planning to vacation at a country

other than this country in the

next 12 months, or not?

For the person who went

most recently, what was the

highest level of his/her

education? (Open ended)

Have any members of your

household, aged 15 to 60,

gone to live in a foreign country permanently or

temporarily in the past five

years?

Ideally, if you could afford

it, would you like to move permanently to another

country, or would you prefer

to continue living in this

country?

Some people believe

that groups that are

oppressed and are

suffering from injustice can improve their

situation by peaceful means

ALONE. Others do not

believe that peaceful means

ALONE will work to improve

the situation for such

oppressed groups. Which

do you believe — peaceful means ALONE will work, or

peaceful means ALONE will

NOT work?

Some people think that for

an individual person or a

small group of persons to

target and kill civilians

is sometimes justified,

while others think that

kind of violence is never

justified. Which is your

opinion?

Some people think that for

the military to target and

kill civilians is sometimes

justified, while others think

that kind of violence is

never justified. Which is

your opinion?

Do you believe that the

muslim world respects

the Western world?

Do you believe that the

Western world respects the

Muslim world?

Do you think the Muslim

world is committed

to improving the interaction between the muslim and western worlds?

Do you think the Western

world is committed to improving the interaction

between the Muslim and

Western worlds?

Do you think the

interaction between

the muslim world and the

west ern world

The Gallup World Poll is organized into Performance Indexes that track

critical economic, social, and political issues. These indexes serve as

indicators of correlations to other classic and behavioral economic data.

This index is an evaluation of national leadership as defined by the confidence people have in key institutions. Questions in this index measure approval of national governments and confidence in elections, judicial systems, and the military.

This index represents the security level that citizens observe for themselves and their families. Questions in this index measure confidence in local police, the feeling of safety, and specific problems such as money or property being stolen.

This index is derived from a series of questions designed to assess the capabilities people have to meet their everyday, basic needs. Questions in this index measure issues such as having enough money for food and clothing and having running water and electricity in the home.

Items in this index focus on the degree of personal engagement at work — whether it is paid labor or a part of day-to-day family subsistence. Questions in this index measure citizens’ work and job classifications, their job satisfaction, and their ability to do what they do best every day.

National Leadership Index

Law and Order Index

Food and Shelter Index

Work Index


The key issues that this index includes focus on people’s evaluations and outlook for their standard of living and the national economic situation. Questions in this index measure satisfaction with standards of living, improvements in standards of living, and national economic conditions.

This index measures personal perceptions of one’s own health and incidence of pain, sadness, and worry. Questions in this index gauge satisfaction with personal health and citizens’ self-reported levels of health, rest, worry, sadness, and pain.

Developed in collaboration with the world’s foremost behavioral economists, the Well-Being Index items are used to rate citizen’s current and past quality of life. Questions in this index measure overall life quality now and 5 years from now, as well as citizens’ reports of laughter, learning, and being treated with respect.

Items in the Engaged Citizens Index focus on respondents’ satisfaction with their communities, and their inclination to volunteer their time, money, or assistance to others. Questions in this index gauge satisfaction with community, personal freedoms, generosity, and respect for minorities and other social groups.

Economics Index

Health Index

Well-Being Index

Engaged Citizens Index


The purpose of the Environment Index is to measure satisfaction with efforts to deal with environmental issues. Questions in this index gauge satisfaction with air quality, water quality, and the overall environmental system.

The Youth Development Index includes general measures of “development of youth” and “respect for youth,” along with satisfaction with the educational system. Questions in this index gauge child treatment, learning opportunities for children, and satisfaction with schools and education.

The Community Quality of Life Index is a combination of many sub-indexes covering all aspects of community life from the perspective of the people who live there. Questions in this index measure overall satisfaction with community as well as satisfaction with community jobs, healthcare, transportation, appearance, education, leadership, housing, and environmental quality.

The Religiosity Index is a measure of the importance of religion and attendance of religious services. Questions in this index measure citizens’ self-reported importance of religion and religious service attendance.

Environment Index

Youth Development Index

Community Quality

of Life Index

Religiosity Index


The items comprising the Entrepreneurship Index accomplish two objectives: They measure the intent of citizens to be in business for themselves, and they assess the supportive nature of the community for entrepreneurial business initiatives. Questions in this index measure citizens’ opinions about planning their own business and other entrepreneurial issues.

The Corruption Index assesses the degree to which respondents perceive corruption to exist among public and private institutions. Questions in this index measure corruption in businesses and government, among other areas.

The Tolerance Index measures overall perceived openness to diversity in respondents’ communities. Questions in this index gauge citizens’ opinions about helping strangers and whether their communities are good places for racial and ethnic minorities, gay/lesbian people, and immigrants to live.

The intent of the Communications Index is to evaluate the availability and penetration of communications technology. Questions in this index measure whether citizens have televisions, computers, and access to the Internet in their homes.

Entrepreneurship Index

Corruption Index

Tolerance Index

Communications Index


The following section describes the research design and methodology

necessary to execute this complex undertaking.

The Gallup World Poll uses two primary methodological designs:

A Random-Digit-Dial (RDD) telephone survey design is used in •countries where 80% or more of the population has landline phones. This situation is typical in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, etc.

In the developing world, including much of Latin America, the former •Soviet Union countries, nearly all of Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, an area frame design is used for face-to-face interviewing.

The following are key aspects of the overall Gallup World Poll survey philosophy:

The sample represents all parts of each country*, including all rural •areas. Countries are reviewed on a case-by-case basis when part of a country cannot be included in the sample design. The review determines whether the survey should be carried out.

The target population includes all individuals aged 15 and older. •Face-to-face interviews are approximately one hour in length. Telephone •interviews are considerably shorter, about 30 minutes in length.

There is a standard set of questions used around the world. •In the parts of the world where face-to-face surveys are conducted, the •questionnaire includes questions tailored to each region. For example, the questions used in heavily indebted poor countries are tailored toward providing information about progress on the Millennium Development Goals.

The questionnaire is translated** into the major languages of each country. •Interviewing supervisors and interviewers are trained, not only on •the questionnaire, but also on the execution of field procedures. This interviewing training usually takes place in a central location.

Quality control procedures are used to validate that correct samples •are selected and that the correct person is randomly selected in each household. Random respondent selection uses either the latest birthday method or the Kish grid.

Methodological Design


The typical World Poll survey in a country consists of 1,000 completed questionnaires. However, in some countries, oversamples may be collected in major cities. For example, we collected an additional 500 interviews in Moscow. In countries where face-to-face surveys are conducted, census listings of Primary Sampling Units (PSU), consisting of clusters of households, are the main way of selecting the sample. Typically, the PSU are stratified this way:

Cities with population = 1,000,000 or moreI.

Cities with population = 500,000 to 999,999II.

Cities with population = 100,000 to 499,999III.

Cities with population = 50,000 to 99,999IV.

Towns with population = 10,000 to 49,999 V.

Towns/Rural villages with populations less than 10,000VI.

Sampling


PSU are proportionally allocated to the population in each stratum and typically 125 PSU are sampled with an average of eight interviews, one interview per sampled household, per PSU. If maps of the PSU are available, then they are used; otherwise, the selected PSU must be mapped. Random route procedures are used to select sampled households. Interviewers must make at least three attempts to survey the sampled household, unless an outright refusal occurs. If an interview cannot be obtained at the initial sampled household, the household to the immediate right of the initial household is selected. If the first attempt at this household is unsuccessful, then the house immediately to the left of the initial household is selected. Attempts to obtain an interview can be made at up to nine households.

In the RDD survey, at least five call attempts are made to reach a person, aged 15 and older, in each household. Typically the design is not stratified, but otherwise the other processes and procedures follow those used in the face-to-face design.

The first round of data collection was carried out in late 2005 and 2006. These probability surveys are valid*** within a statistical margin of error, also called a 95% confidence interval. This means that if the survey is conducted 100 times using the exact same procedures, the margin of error would include the “true value” in 95 out of the 100 surveys. With a sample size of 1,000, the margin of error for a percentage at 50% is ±3 percentage points.

Because these surveys use a clustered sample design, the margin of error varies by question, and if a user is making critical decisions based on the margin of error, he or she should consider inflating the margin of error by the design effect. The design effect accounts for the potential of correlated responses, and increase in the margin of error, caused by the sample of clusters of households in PSU.

*Three exceptions exist: Areas that threaten the safety of interviewing staff are excluded, as are scarcely populated islands in some countries and areas that can be reached only by foot or by animal, with the exception of China.

**The translation process includes two independent translations and back translations; survey personnel adjudicate the differences.

***Assuming other sources of error, such as nonresponse, by some members of the targeted sample are equal. Other errors that can affect survey validity include measurement error associated with the questionnaire, such as translation issues and coverage error, where a part or parts of the target population aged 15 and older have a zero probability of being selected for the survey.

Statistical Validity


There are multiple ways to access the Gallup World Poll.

The Gallup WorldView (shown above) is a unique Web-based platform that provides dynamic access to all World Poll data.

The full World Poll data set is available for those seeking to conduct their own advanced analysis or to combine the World Poll results with other data.

Gallup’s team of global and regional experts can deliver advanced analysis, consulting, and education about the World Poll data.

Gallup WorldView

Full Respondent-Level Data

Global and Regional Experts

Acquire the power to understand and act on what the world is

thinking. Contact us to gain access to the Gallup World Poll.

For more information, please e-mail [email protected] or call

202.715.3030 (Washington, D.C.) or +44 (0) 20 7950 4402 (London).


For more information, please e-mail [email protected] or call

202.715.3030 (Washington, D.C.) or +44 (0) 20 7950 4402 (London).

What could you do differently if you knew what the whole world was thinking . . . all of the time?

Documents

What the World Is Thinkingsiteresources.worldbank.org/INTMIGDEV/Resources/...What the World Is Thinking . 1 | What the World Is Thinking 2 | Human Behavior, Economic Outcomes ... excellent,