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What the Changing Job Market Means to You
Ned C. Hill, DeanMarriott School
Brigham Young University
Overview
The Big Picture Future of Work
Ten Years Out Hot Careers * What’s Required*
Who’ll Work?
The Big Picture Future of Work
Here & Now The realities
and how to win
The Big Picture
Where Are the Jobs?
• US has lost 2.7M jobs since early 1991• We’ve added about 500K in past 6 months• Culprits?
– Outsourcing (but only 300K)– Productivity!
• For each 1% annual productivity increase = 1.3M jobs NOT created
• Current “recovery” 3-3.5% productivity vs. 2-2.5% in previous recovery
The Big Picture
Outsourcing Examined
• Many jobs being “insourced” to US– Honda increased workforce by 15%
this yr– Novartis—moved its R&D to Boston– Samsung building $500M plant in TX
• Why do they come?– Lower corporate taxes– Labor laws– Productivity is high– Stable political environment– Entrepreneurial spirit
The Big Picture
What Jobs Are NOT Being Outsourced?
• Custom manufacturing• Jobs requiring close, personal
contact with clients• Jobs requiring understanding of US
laws, customs, culture, tastes• R&D, innovations, and creative
work requiring the climate only found in US
The Big Picture
What Jobs ARE Being Outsourced?
• Commodity & labor intensive manufacturing
• Jobs not requiring close, personal contact with clients
• Jobs that can be routinized, reduced to logical steps, subject to computer- assisted processing
The Big Picture
Another Factor: Perceived Risk
• Terrorist threat• War in Iraq• Memory of the 2001-02 stock
market crash• Corporate scandals—boardrooms &
managers are much more cautious
The Big Picture
Cost Pressures
• High cost of oil and other commodities
• China—low cost powerhouse• “Overhang” of computer power
acquired for Y2K• Soaring health care costs (up 6.5%
just this past year)
The Big Picture
Result
• Management is reluctant to hire new employees
• Instead they are expecting more from current employees OR
• They are using computers in place of employees
• Example: Cisco targets $700K/employee before new hiring ($632K last year)
The Big Picture
The Big Picture
The Future
Post-Industrial Society
• Computers and technology continue to “up” the ante
Bill Gates –
• Power doubles every 18 months• 2018 speed 10,000 times 1998• Library of Congress in your hand
The Road Ahead
• High-tech, info-based with flexible, responsive management
The Big Picture
One Example -- Manufacturing
1990 Mass Production
• Few Choices• Just-in-time Production• “Skilled” workers• Departments/hierarchies• Workers and machines compete for work
Source: The World of Production, p. 328
2025 “Made for You”
• Customer Designs• On-Demand Production• Workers assigned to “flavor of the day”• Ability to switch to new product rapidly• Virtual org/alliances• People & machines work together
The Big Picture
Manufacturing
“The Factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog.
The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man
from touching the equipment.”
Warren Bennis
“The Factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog.
The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man
from touching the equipment.”
Warren Bennis
The Big Picture
Some Other Key Trends(Compiled by ABCNews for Millenium 2K Project)
• More work at home . . . up to 30 percent David Pearce, The Futurist
• More “brownout” . . . now working more than the Japanese
Alan Halcrow, editor of Workforce magazine
• More flexible . . . alternatives offered by 25 percent of employers now
• Globalization . . . 588,000 jobs off-shore by 2005 . . . 3.3 million by 2015
BusinessWeek, February 3, 2003
The Big Picture
Takeaways
In 1989 we “re-tooled” every 7 yearsIn the future: a continuous, unending process?
Your value to company will be more knowledge-based (Charles Handy: 80% of workers as “thinkers” versus
manual laborers)
Careers more flexible and unpredictableFamily balance -- possible to greater extent
Globalization and outsourcing will continue to be a major factors in the work force
In 1895, 50% of all employment was in the home. Will that also be true in 2025?
The Big Picture Future of Work
Ten Years Out Hot Careers * What’s Required*
Who’ll Work?
The Big Picture Future of Work
Here & Now The realities
and how to win
The Medium Term
10 Years Out
A Coming Employee Shortage?
BLS forecasts 10 million worker shortage by 2010
Workforce – 140.9 million in 2000 to 157.7 million by 2010
Total employment -- 145.6 million in 2000 to 167.8 million in 2010
Labor Force Up 12% -- Jobs Up 15.2%
10 Years Out
Key Trends – Labor Force by Age
Youth Labor Force
Ahead of Other Groups
• 25-54: share down from 71% in 2000 to 66.6% in 2010• 55-plus: up from 12.9% to 16.9%
Source: Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2002-03
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-over
2000 2010
Workforce by Age,2000-2010
10 Years Out
Key Trends – Education
Education
Still Counts
• Only two of 50 highest paying occupations (air traffic controller and nuclear power reactor operator) don’t require a college degree • 21.6% increase in Bachelor’s requirement, but little increase at master’s, professional degree or Ph.D. level
Source: Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2002-03
41.3
52.5
2000 2010
Percentage of Jobs Requiring a Bachelor’s
Or Greater Degree
10 Years Out
Key Trends – Education
Source: Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2002-03
Unemployment rate in 2000 Education
attained
Median earnings in 2000
(Percent) (Dollars)
1.6 Master's degree 55,300
1.8Bachelor's
degree 46,300
2.3Associate
degree 35,400
2.9Some college,
no degree 32,400
3.5High-school
graduate 28,800
6.5
Some high-school, no diploma 21,400
10 Years Out
Key Trends – Occupations
Professional and Related Jobs Will lead the Way
• 26% increase in professional/related jobs (6.9 million jobs); most growth in computer/ math, healthcare and education & training• 19.5% jump in service jobs (5.1 million jobs)• 13.6% rise in business-related jobs (2.1 million); 47.9% lift in information systems managers; 36.3% jump in PR managers; purchasing managers down; accountants, auditors, ops managers and management analysts up
10 Years Out
Examples: Occupations on the Rise
Increase 2002-2012
College Educators 600,000
Business Managers 380,000
Software Engineer 179,000
Management Consultants 176,000
Artists and Designers 125,000
Source: Business Week, March 22, 2004, p. 50
10 Years Out
Examples: Occupations Declining
Change 2002-2012
Sewing Maching Operators -99,000
Word Processors -93,000
Telephone Operators -28,000
Travel Agents -16,000
Title Examiners -1,000
Source: Business Week, March 22, 2004, p. 50
10 Years Out
Takeaways
Service jobs are on the rise and will account of much of the
increase in US jobs over next 10 years
Jobs in education will increase significantly
Business and business-related jobs should rebound over the next decade
IT and health professions look very strong
Education is still worth it!
The Short Term
The Big Picture Future of Work
Ten Years Out Hot Careers * What’s Required*
Who’ll Work?
The Big Picture Future of Work
Here & Now The realities
and how to win
Here and Now
Here and Now
Jobs after the Downturn
This One’s Worse
Job GrowthFollowing Recessions
0.0%
0.5%
-0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Number of Months Since End of Recession1 306 12 18 24
1990-91 Recession
2001Recession
Source: “The Kiplinger Letter, May 23, 2003
The Tide is Starting to Turn
• Productivity is high—that leads to slower job creation• Don’t expect real improvement until 2005 • Takes about 3.5 GDP to create jobs sufficient for growth in job market
What We See at the Marriott School
• Pick-up for MBAs in– Full-time job offers– Internships (much better than last year)
• However, Master’s of Info Sys students and Master of Public Administration students are having a difficult year
• Accounting students are in high demand – better than 95% placed at graduation
• Our Business Management undergrads are doing better than the national average of 39%
Here and Now
Some Companies Are Hiring
Workforce in General
Company Number AdvertisedAllstate 202
Charles Schwab 102
Citigroup 2,270
Computer Services Corp 672
Deloitte & Touche 673
Dow Jones 23
Edward Jones 423
MasterCard 78
Merrill Lynch 197
Pricewaterhouse Coopers 271
Sprint 382
UBS 222
Source: WSJ CareerJournal.com
Here and Now
“High End” Market
Workforce in General
• Relationship oriented; who you know counts• Experience and reputation are more important than degrees -- “Looking for talent”• “Try before buy” attitude; don’t want to pay until talent is established—lots of temp jobs• Very risk-averse; indicators of success make all the difference• Very conservative
Here and Now
Here and Now
What “They” Don’t Want You to Know
Absolute Truth #1
Many people are getting good jobs!
Here and Now
What “They” Don’t Want You to Know
Absolute Truth #1
Some people are still getting good jobs!
Corollary #1
You will be hired if you are perceived to add more value
than you cost!
Here and Now
What “They” Don’t Want You to Know
Absolute Truth #2
Your job search begins the day you start to look
for your first job and it never ends!
Absolute Truth #3
Knowledge Rules and Passion Sells!
Here and Now
What “They” Don’t Want You to Know
Here and Now
The Key is a Strategy
• Have faith in yourself• Self-assess• Do your homework
• Rigorous review of market and industries
• Develop your story• Targeted resumes• Networking
• Apply (in person, if possible)• Be ready to show how you can add value (Job Creation)• Follow-up
Here and Now
Understand Yourself
• Questions to ask• What you can do (skills)• What you want to do (values) • What you should do (obligations to
others) • Aids
• Professional• Self-help• Internet
Sources of Help on the Internet
• Too much information without an adequate screening process – Google Search: 3,290,000 “hits”– Locally created Flipdog: 270,000 jobs . . .
crawls web looking for opportunities– Monstertrak: partnership with employers
and schools . . . hundreds of thousands of jobs
Three-Quarters of Jobs on Internet Are Estimated to be “Generic” or “Temp” Teasers
Here and Now
www.jobhuntersbible.com
www.quintcareers.com
Here and Now
Internet: Source of Career Process Info
www.cdm.uwaterloo.ca/steps.asp
www.careerjournal.com
www.hoovers.com
www.vault.com
Here and Now
Internet: Source of Company Info
www.sec.gov (edgar)
www.businessweek.com
• Network with friends, colleagues, community leaders, business leaders and professional contacts
• Up to 80% of jobs come through networking • Richard Bolles, What Color is My Parachute?• Don’t ask your contact to help you find a job
– Ask for guidance and counsel (their opinion)– It’s less threatening
• Have an “elevator speech”• “Plan your work and work your plan” (Spencer
W. Kimball)—establish a daily routine
Here and Now
Power Networking
The Opposite of Networking is “Not Working”
Here and Now
A Few Words About Resumes • Purpose: Get you an interview, not a job• Rule of thumb: Under 10 years/below officer status –
one page; over 10 and/or officer – up to three pages• Style has changed for business resume
• Every word counts; bullets read like headlines• Three or fewer bullets per job . . . most important
first• Work on your resume with someone
you trust, if possible . . . It’s sometimes difficult to define your own strengths
Should I Change Jobs?
1. Does the job develop my best skills, abilities and interests?
2. How well does the job line up with my personal and family values?
– Integrity– Compensation– Family friendliness– Location
3. Does the job put me around people I appreciate?
4. Am I making a difference?
Here and Now
Dimensions of Ethics
Level 1: Ethical Framework—Personal understanding of ethical principles, right and wrong behavior
Level 2: Ethical Courage—Ability to apply that understanding, even under pressure
Level 3: Ethical Leadership —Ability to cause others in an organization to live ethically
Here and Now
A Final Word
• Stay focused and optimistic• Know exactly what you want and “step out
of the box” to build a strategy to get there• Be aggressive . . . but be smart, too• Keep your perspective: It isn’t you . . . It’s
the job market and the economy• Seize the moment . . . and the opportunity!
Thank You – All the Best!
