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© OECD/IEA 2013
What role for CCS following COP21?
CSLF Workshop in association with the Carbon Capture and Storage Association, 29 June 2016
Philippe Benoit, Head, Energy Environment Division
© OECD/IEA 2015
Reaching the 2 degree ambition
Contribution of technology area and sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO
2
4DS to 2DS
Renewables 29%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1% End-use efficiency 36%
End-use fuel switching 12%
Nuclear 7%
CCS 15%
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© OECD/IEA 2015
Reaching the 2 degree ambition
Contribution of technology area and sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO
2
4DS to 2DS
Renewables 29%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1% End-use efficiency 36%
End-use fuel switching 12%
Nuclear 7%
CCS 15%
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© OECD/IEA 2015
Other renewable power
Buildings
Nuclear
Transport
Appliances and lighting Energy storage
Industry
Biofuels Carbon capture and storage
More efficient coal-fired power
Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind
Technology Status today against 2DS targets
●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track
Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2°C goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising
Progress in clean energy needs to accelerate
© OECD/IEA 2015
Paris Agreement: a new level of ambition . . . a revitalized need for CCS
“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2oC above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;”
“… Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions … so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks … in the second half of this century …”
© OECD/IEA 2015
Reaching beyond the 2DS …
Contribution of technology area and sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions
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2013 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO
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Renewables 29%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1% End-use efficiency 36%
End-use fuel switching 12%
Nuclear 7%
CCS 15%
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© OECD/IEA 2015
Contribution of technology area and sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions
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GtCO
2
4DS to 2DS
Renewables 29%
Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1% End-use efficiency 36%
End-use fuel switching 12%
Nuclear 7%
CCS 15%
4DS
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Reaching beyond the 2DS …
© OECD/IEA 2015
. . . to ‘well below 2’: Role for CCS on residual emissions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mt/
CO2
Remaining direct CO2 emissions under 2DS
Other transformation
Power
Transport
Agriculture
Services
Residential
Industry
© OECD/IEA 2015
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mt/
CO2
Remaining direct CO2 emissions under 2DS
Other transformation
Power
Transport
Agriculture
Services
Residential
Industry
. . . to ‘well below 2’: Role for CCS on residual emissions
© OECD/IEA 2015
Sectoral shares of cumulative residual 2DS emissions - 2015-2050
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Agriculture
Services
Other transformation
Residential
Transport
Power
Industry 312 Gt
270 Gt
51 Gt
42 Gt
24 Gt
16 Gt
230 Gt
© OECD/IEA 2015
3,684
179
1,406
3,197
6,197
2,650
699
1,795
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
TWh
Fossil-fuel power with CCS (2DS)
Unabated coal CCS coal Unabated gas CCS gas
2035 2050
ETP 2014, 2015
CCS: key to increasing ambition for low-emissions pathway
© OECD/IEA 2015
310GW of plant ‘suitable’ for retrofit
CCS Retrofit: the key to ‘unlocking’ emissions to get to 2 degrees and below
IEA/CEC China joint report (May 2016):
© OECD/IEA 2015
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mt/
CO2
Remaining direct CO2 emissions under 2DS
Other transformation
Power
Transport
Agriculture
Services
Residential
Industry
Despite 3Gt CO2 captured and stored, 7Gt of CO2 emissions remain from industrial sources in 2050 under 2DS.
How much more can CCS do in industrial applications under ‘well below 2°’?
. . . to ‘well below 2’: Role for CCS on residual emissions
© OECD/IEA 2015
Industry-CCS: enabling clean products to tackle greater ambition
CCS is a critical technology for many process industries with high specific emissions per tonne of product: • Steel: 1,9 – 2.1 tCO2 / t of steel • Cement: 0.8tCO2 / t of cement
Applying CCS can enable clean
products, with -50 to -80% CO2 / t of cement or steel
…but: what would drive this? • Product standards & mandates • CO2 price • Customer demand (to an extent)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Using EOR+ to accelerate CCS innovation and deployment
“EOR+”: co-exploiting oil extraction and CO2 storage for climate purposes, including MRV
In "Advanced EOR+", operators increase the volume of CO2 injected above minimal amounts typically used greater oil output, greater CO2 storage
EOR+ has significant technical potential to store CO2 globally: from 60Gt to 350Gt. (Note: total cumulative volume of CO2 stored in 2DS is ~100Gt until 2050.)
-0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00
Conventional+
Advanced+
Maximum
Net Emissions (tCO2/bbl)
Advanced EOR+
EOR+ can be beneficial to climate: Additional CO2 stored significantly outweighs the CO2 from additional oil
© OECD/IEA 2015
Combination of bioenergy with CCS can deliver net negative emissions and reduce atmospheric concentrations of CO2
Can address ‘overshoot’ of carbon budgets in medium term – essential in achieving 2 degrees in many climate models (IPCC)
But…not all BECCS is good BECCS Sustainability of biomass – social and economic issues; competition with food
production; loss of biodiversity; pressure on water resources etc Availability of geological storage will be critical!
Greater climate ambition means need more negative emissions: Re-energising BECCS
© OECD/IEA 2015
SOEs own a large share of zero-carbon power
Ownership of ‘zero-carbon’ generation capacity 1 980 GW (hydropower, other utility-scale renewables and nuclear)
Ownership of fossil fuel generation capacity 3 702 GW
State-owned 42%
Private 49%
Other 9%
State-owned 60%
Private 34%
Other 6%
© OECD/IEA 2015
Changing the business model: the Storage Service Company (offtake)
CO2 Storage Agency
CO2 Storage Service Company
Emitter (industrial, power , BECCS)
Storage Capture
Delivery
Financing Agreements
$
Guarantee
Transport and Storage
Offtake Agreement
CO2 Delivery Contract
$ $
© OECD/IEA 2015
Conclusions
Getting to ‘well below 2oC’ means more need for CCS:
Greater, faster deployment of CCS, notably more in power and more retrofits
Greater emphasis on CCS in industry (where alternative solutions do not yet exist in many sectors)
More BECCS
Changing the business model:
EOR+: a better way to generate net lower emissions
Storage Service companies
© OECD/IEA 2015
Thank you
