34
Energy boom and groundwater Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with implications for nexus with implications for the U.S. border region the U.S. border region Presented at First Western Forum on Energy and Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, 22 March 2007

What Nexus?

  • Upload
    judah

  • View
    49

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with implications for the U.S. border region. Presented at First Western Forum on Energy and Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, 22 March 2007. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Citation preview

Page 1: What Nexus?

Energy boom and groundwater bust: Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with Mexico’s water-energy nexus with implications for the U.S. border regionimplications for the U.S. border region

Presented at First Western Forum on Energy and Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, 22 March 2007

Page 2: What Nexus?

Energy Boom and Energy Boom and Groundwater BustGroundwater BustMexico’s Water-Energy Mexico’s Water-Energy Nexus with Implications Nexus with Implications

for the U.S. Border Regionfor the U.S. Border Region

Christopher ScottChristopher Scott University of ArizonaUniversity of Arizona

Dept. of Geography & Regional Development, Dept. of Geography & Regional Development, andand

Udall Center for Studies in Public PolicyUdall Center for Studies in Public Policy

Page 3: What Nexus?

What Nexus?What Nexus?

Resources – water and energy are coupled in fundamental ways

Management – of water or energy in isolation likely has (unforeseen) consequences for the other resource

Sustainability – policy tools for water, energy need to be mutually reinforcing

Page 4: What Nexus?

Water-Energy CouplingWater-Energy Coupling

Groundwater Inter-basin

transfers Municipal supply Wastewater, reuse

reservoir storageevaporative

demand

energy for pumpinglift, distributiontreatment,

distributiontreatment,

desalination

Hydropower Thermo-power

cooling

Page 5: What Nexus?

Resource FeedbacksResource Feedbacks

Water use

Energy

demand

Energy use

Water dema

nd

Page 6: What Nexus?

De-coupled De-coupled Management…Management… Water management options tend to externalize energy implications, e.g.: ~70 billion kWh/yr for U.S. water and

wastewater projected to increase 20% in 15 years greater if “desalination roadmap” is followed

water represents 1/3 of municipal energy budgets

groundwater irrigation is a large % of total electricity demand, e.g., in Mexico 10% in Sonora state 17% in Chihuahua state 30% in Zacatecas state

Page 7: What Nexus?

… … Needs to be [Re-] Needs to be [Re-] CoupledCoupled Energy management needs

to internalize water implications: increased hydropower reliance

entails sectoral water reallocation cooling water salt concentrations a

major challenge (e.g., Phoenix’s Palo Verde uses high TDS effluent)

Page 8: What Nexus?

Sustainability and PolicySustainability and Policy

Behind groundwater boom-bust cycles (e.g., Mexico) are energy supply and pricing. Conversely:

Energy supply and pricing offer tools for sustainable groundwater management

Page 9: What Nexus?

Global Groundwater Global Groundwater BoomBoom

Groundwater Irrigation Ranking

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

IndiaUSAChinaPakistan

Iran

BangladeshMexico

Saudi Arabia

ItalyTurkey

SyriaBrazil

('000 ha)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

%

GW Area (000 ha)

% Cropped Area

Source: Shah (in review); FAO AQUASTAT (2002).

26,000

Page 10: What Nexus?

… … Leading to Leading to Groundwater BustGroundwater Bust

Number of Wells in MexicoNumber of Wells in Mexico GW GW Irrigation in IndiaIrrigation in India

India, Irrigated Area by Source

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

Million ha

Groundw ater

Surface (Minor)

Surface (Major/Medium)

Mexico, Number of Agricultural Wells

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

1000 wells

Page 11: What Nexus?

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

A

SC

EN

CIO

N

BA

JA B

AB

ICO

RA

CA

SA

S G

RA

ND

ES

F

.M.-

V. A

HU

MA

DA

C

HIH

-SA

CR

AM

EN

TO

ME

OQ

UI-

DE

LIC

IAS

J

IME

NE

Z-C

AM

AR

GO

JU

AR

EZ

(Z. U

rban

a)

P

AR

RA

L-V

. DE

L V

.

TA

B.-

AL

DM

A

C

UA

UH

TE

MO

C

ACUIFEROS SOBREEXPLOTADOS

ABATIMIENTO MEDIO EN m/año

Page 12: What Nexus?

1 VALLE DE JUAREZ2 ASCENCION3 CASAS GRANDES4 F.M.-V. AHUMADA5 BAJA BABICORA6 CUAUHTEMOC7 CHIHUAHUA-SACRAMENTO8 TABALAOPA-ALDAMA9 DELICIAS10 JIMENEZ-CAMARGO11 PARRAL-EL VERANO

DISTRIBUCIÓN DE LOS ACUIFEROS

SOBREEXPLOTADOS25° N

26° N

27° N

28° N

29° N

30° N

31° N

32° N

500

E s c a l a g r á f i c a

100 kms.

CUENCAS CERRADASDEL NORTE

VERTIENTESDEL OESTE

ALTO BRAVO

CONCHOS - MAPIMI

Proyección Longitud - Latitud

E X P L I C A C I O N

LIMITE ESTATAL

LIMITE INTERNACIONAL

NOMBRE DE LA REGION

REGIONES DE PLANEACION HIDROLOGICA

<<<<<<<<< <<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

<<<<<<<<<

EN EQUILIBRIO

SOBREEXPLOTADO

E X P L I C A C I O N

<<<<<<<<<SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCALMANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION

LOCALIDADES MAS POBLADAS

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

$

Est

e p

lan

o e

s es

qu

emát

ico

ACUIFEROS Y ZONAS DE VEDA

Programa Hidráulico de Gran VisiónC H I H U A H U A 1996 - 2020.

API DHTA PROINFRAFecha:nov 96'.

COMISION NACIONAL DEL AGUA

Figura 8-2

E X P L I C A C I O N

SOBREEXPLOTADO

EN EQUILIBRIO

SUBEXPLOTADO

SOBREEXPLOTACION LOCAL MANIFIESTA EN CONOS DE EXPLOTACION

No. Y NOMBRE DEL ACUIFERO

CABECERA MUNICIPALJimenez

1. Ascención

Nuevo Casas Grandes

Madera

Meoqui

Delicias

Hidalgo del Parral

Saucillo

1. Ascención

6. Casas Grandes

3. Baja Babícora

35. TabaloapaAldama

33. Valle de Juárez

21. Villa AhumadaFlores Magón

Chihuahua

30. ChihuahuaSacramento

Camargo

32. JimenezCamargo

34. ParralValle de Verano

Jimenez

Cuauhtémoc

Ojinaga

Juárez

5. Cuauhtémoc

10. Samalayuca

31. MeoquiDelicias

12. Palomas

4. San Buenaventura

7. SauzEncinillas

9. Laguna deMexicanos

8

28

29 11 23

17

25

1827

26

13

1419

2058

59

24

2 3742

39

55

52

47

22

60

46

38

40

1615 41

36

49 51

4445

43

50

53

54

5748

56

ZONA CON DECRETO DE VEDA

Page 13: What Nexus?

Groundwater-Energy Groundwater-Energy Supply NexusSupply Nexus

Groundwater overdraft and multiple impacts are driven by electricity supply and pricing

Page 14: What Nexus?

Increasing Volume, Increasing Volume, Declining ShareDeclining Share

Page 15: What Nexus?

High Energy % for GW High Energy % for GW PumpingPumping

Page 16: What Nexus?

Ag. Groundwater Ag. Groundwater Pumped, 2005Pumped, 2005(derived from energy data; national total ≈ 17.6 (derived from energy data; national total ≈ 17.6 kmkm33/year)/year)

Country Annual groundwater

use (km3)

No. of GW structures (million)

Extraction/ structure (m3/year)

% of population dependent on groundwater

India 150 19 7,900 55-60

Pakistan-Punjab 45 0.5 90,000 60-65

China 75 3.5 21,500 22-25

Iran 45 0.5 58,000 12-18

Mexico 29 0.1 400,000 5-6

USA 100 0.2 500,000 <1-2

Page 17: What Nexus?

Aquifer OverdraftAquifer Overdraft

Page 18: What Nexus?

GW Sustainability GW Sustainability InitiativesInitiatives

1992 - water rights, titling wells Registro Público de Derechos de Agua (REPDA) annual concessioned volume water meters, but monitoring or compliance

inadequate Water resource (river basin) master

plans bans on new wells in overdrafted aquifers recharge programs (controversial, runoff

impacts) groundwater user committees

Page 19: What Nexus?

Ag. GW Share of Total Ag. GW Share of Total Water TitledWater Titled

Page 20: What Nexus?

GW Titled ≠ GW PumpedGW Titled ≠ GW Pumped

Page 21: What Nexus?

2002 – Mexico seized the 2002 – Mexico seized the GW-energy nexus GW-energy nexus opportunityopportunity Rural Energy Law (Ley de Energía

para el Campo) primarily to level the playing field for Mexican agriculture under NAFTA

Power tariff structure modified with medium-term subsidy support

Sliding-scale ag. power tariff with threshold fixed by energy equivalent of groundwater volume titled

Page 22: What Nexus?

2003 – lost the thread? … 2003 – lost the thread? … with lower night-time ag. with lower night-time ag. tariff, but ineffective controls tariff, but ineffective controls on volume or area irrigatedon volume or area irrigatedTarifas

($/ kWh)2003 2004 2005

1. Doméstica 0.7496 0.793 0.8356Dom. alto consumo 1.728 2.0443 2.1236

5A. Servicios públicos 1.3353 1.4186 1.4915

6. Agua Negras y Potables 0.9727 1.041 1.0982

9. Agrícola baja tension 0.3805 0.4211 0.5357

9M. Agrícola media tension 0.3933 0.4816 0.60519CU. Agrícola costo unitario 0.3156 0.3928 0.435

9N. Agrícola nocturna 0.281 0.3409 0.3657

32% difference

Example: Chihuahua tariffs

US$ 1.00 = Mex$ 10.80

Page 23: What Nexus?

Sonora Ag. Power Consumption

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

198819901992199419961998200020022004

MWh

Night

Reg./ day

Chihuahua Ag. Power Consumption

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

198819901992199419961998200020022004

MWh

Night

Reg./ day

Coahuila Ag. Power Consumption

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

198819901992199419961998200020022004

MWh

Night

Reg./ day

Guanajuato Ag. Power Consumption

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

198819901992199419961998200020022004

MWh

Night

Reg./ day

Growth, night Growth, night ag. power ag. power consumptionconsumption

Page 24: What Nexus?

Shift to Night-time Shift to Night-time Irrigation Irrigation

Page 25: What Nexus?

Financially, A Losing Financially, A Losing Proposition?Proposition?

Page 26: What Nexus?

… … But Overall Profits HighBut Overall Profits High

Page 27: What Nexus?

GW-Based Intensive Ag. GW-Based Intensive Ag. ProductionProduction Exports to U.S., Canada, Pacific

rim Expanding Mexican domestic

market Costa de Hermosillo (Sonora) grapes Cuauhtemoc (Chihuahua) apples

Low water productivity in basic grains (wheat, corn) competing with high productivity horticulture

Page 28: What Nexus?

High Per-User Volumes High Per-User Volumes (Titled)(Titled)

Page 29: What Nexus?

Mexico’s Virtual Water Mexico’s Virtual Water Exports to the U.S. are Exports to the U.S. are GroundwaterGroundwater

Page 30: What Nexus?

Mexico’s Virtual Water Mexico’s Virtual Water Imports are Rainwater (w Imports are Rainwater (w supplemental irrigation)supplemental irrigation) Corn… despite the ethanol-

tortilla debacle Wheat Grain-fed beef Other animal products Deciduous fruit

Page 31: What Nexus?

Virtual WaterVirtual Water

Failure of the Virtual Water Argument: possible explanations using the case study of Mexico and NAFTA – manuscript by Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers

Page 32: What Nexus?

ConclusionsConclusions

Boom (partial collapse) of groundwater in northern Mexico fueled by electricity supply and pricing

CNA (water) and CFE (electricity) at institutional loggerheads

Energy supply management a promising tool for water demand management

Page 33: What Nexus?

Future ChallengesFuture Challenges

Should Mexico seek to manage virtual exports of groundwater? How?

Urban growth in (northern) Mexico will increasingly appropriate groundwater

Water-energy nexus for desalination?

Page 34: What Nexus?

Thank you.Thank you.Christopher Scott

[email protected]

(520) 626-4393Acknowledgements

Comisión Nacional del Agua Comisión Federal de Electricidad Tushaar Shah, International Water Management Institute Ana María Caliz, Tendencias – Consultores en Economía Jorge Ramirez-Vallejo and Peter Rogers, Harvard University