What is weather?What is weather? The state of the atmosphere

at any given time.

What is climate?What is climate? The aggregate of weather conditions

~ the sum of statistical weather information that describes a place or region.

Earth’s Orientation

Tropic of Cancer

Arctic Circle

Equator

Tropic ofCapricorn

Arctic Circle

Ecliptic Plane

23.5o 23.5o

Wave Theory of LightWave Theory of Light

= Wavelength

Trough

Crest

V = v Wave Velocity = Frequency x Wavelength

Gamma Rays U

ltrav

iole

t

Sta

ndar

d A

M r

adio

Bro

adca

st b

and

Electromagnetic Spectrum

0.001micrometer

1,000micrometers

1meter

1,000meters

1micrometer

Short-wave radiation Long-wave radiation

X Rays Infrared Microwaves Sho

rt-w

ave

Rad

io

Long radio waves

Tel

evis

ion,

FM

Rad

ioVisible Light

0.4Violet Blue Yellow

0.5Green

0.6Orange

0.7Red

Radiation from the Sun vs. Earth

0.1 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 10 20 30 40 50 60Wavelength in Micrometers

Ultra-Violet Infrared

The Driver: Solar Radiation

100 %

20 %Reflected

20 %Absorbed

5 %Back-

scattered

5 %Reflected

50 % Absorbed

Atmospheric Pressure Varies with Altitude

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Atmospheric Pressure in millibars

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

50 % of our atmospherelies below an altitude of 5.6 Km

-100o -90o -80o -70o -60o -50o -40o -30o -20o -10o 0o 10o 20o 40o 50o

Temperature in Centigrade

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 km

MESOSPHEREMESOSPHERE

STRATOSPHERESTRATOSPHERE

TROPOSPHERETROPOSPHERE

THERMOSPHERETHERMOSPHERE

Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere

Mesopause

Tropopause

Stratopause

Maximum OzoneMaximum Ozone

Atmospheric CompositionAtmospheric Composition

CO2 0.036 %(Carbon Dioxide)

Ne 0.0018 %(Neon)

He 0.0005 %(Helium)

CH4 0.00015 %(Methane)

Kr 0.00011 %(Krypton)

H2 0.00005 %(Hydrogen)

Nitrogen( N2 )

78.084 %

Oxygen( O2 ) 20.946 %

Argon( Ar ) 0.946 %

All Other Gases 0.039 %

Global Warming Theory

Early theorists – Fourier’s “bell jar hypothesis” 1824

Svante Arrhenius – H20 & CO2 roles in global warming & projected future warming ~1894

Charles Keeling - CO2 measurements and first systematic measurements of increasing trend 1958

CO2 Concentration390

380

370

360

350

340

330

320

310

1960 1965 1970 1975 19801955 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

CO

2 C

on

cen

trat

ion

in

Par

ts p

er M

illi

on

Greenhouse Gases

The three most important greenhouse gases are:• water vapor (H20)• carbon dioxide (CO2) • methane (CH4)

Other greenhouse gases include: • nitrous Oxide (N20)• fluorinated compounds (CFCs, HFCs & PFCs)

Global Warming Potential

► CO2 = 1

► CH4 = 21

► N2O = 310

► HFC (hydrofluorocarbons) = 1,300

► CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) = 6,500

► SF6 (sulphur hexafluoride) = 23,900

Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years

Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs)

Before 1955: Numerical Models

1955-65: GCM modeling established

1965-75: GCMs first applied on a global & long-range basis

1975-85: GCMs Mature

Oceanic CirculationOceanic Circulation

Global ocean circulation

A simplified view of the global thermohaline conveyor belt, showing cooling and downwelling in the North Atlantic, warming and freshening in the southern hemisphere, and return flow as a warm surface current.

Clouds Reduce Temperature Range

Clouds Reduce Temperature Range

Clouds reflect solar radiation during the day.

Clouds retard loss ofheat during the night.

General Climatic ZonesGeneral Climatic Zones

Coriolis Effect:The deflective effect of Earth’s rotation on free-moving objects.

Deflection is to the right in the Northern Hemisphere & to the left in the Southern Hemisphere

Variation inTroposphere Depth

Zonal Precipitation

Patterns

Zonal Precipitation

Patterns

Monsoon: a seasonal reversal of wind direction associated with large continents.

Global Distribution of Precipitation - JanuaryGlobal Distribution of Precipitation - January

What is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change?

The IPCC was set up jointly by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in November 1988. Its mandate is to:

“Assess the scientific, technical, and socio-economic information relevant for the

understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.” 

The IPCC does NOT conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.

The IPCC role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the latest scientific, technical and socio-economic literature produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.

IPCC reports are intended to be NEUTRAL with respect to policy, although they need to deal objectively with policy relevant scientific, technical and socio economic factors.

IPCC reports are to be of high scientific and technical standards, and aim to reflect a range of views, expertise and wide geographical coverage.”

Working Groups of the IPCC:

Working Group I (WG1) Assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system & climate change

Working Group II (WG2) Assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic & natural systems to climate change, negative & positive consequences of climate change, & options for adapting to it.

Working Group III (WG3) Assesses options for mitigating climate change through limiting or preventing greenhouse gas emissions & enhancing activities that remove them from the atmosphere.

Task Force on National oversees the National Greenhouse GasGreenhouse Gas Inventories ProgrammeInventories

What do critics say of the IPCC?

Critics contend that expression of reservations by scientists regarding an impending ‘climate catastrophe’ are sometimes castigated by others within the scientific community, thereby undermining the scientific process

“[S]elf-censorship in the minds of scientists ultimately leads to a sort of deafness toward new, surprising insights that compete with or even contradict the conventional explanatory models. Science is deteriorating into a repair shop for conventional, politically opportune scientific claims. Not only does science become impotent; it also loses its ability to objectively inform the public.”

Hans von StorchDirector of the Institute for Coastal ResearchGKSS Research Centre (Germany)Professor, Meteorological InstituteUniversity of Hamburg

What is the source of controversy provoked by the IPCC?

“Given authority by supranational bodies such as the UN, but unaccountable to their own national governments, a handful of scientific activists could make a disproportionate impact upon the debate, and make policy recommendations outside of the constraints of policy and practicality … [This is part of a ] trend towards ‘international’ policymaking, where the authority of national governments is diminished in relation to institutions such as the United Nations or the European Union … [R]emote, yet powerful, bureaucracies raises a number of questions about democracy and accountability … [S]cience becomes allied with advocating what should be done rather than telling us what is currently known and what the complexities and uncertainties involved with that knowledge are.”

Tony GillandScience & Society DirectorInstitute of Ideas (Great Britain)[holds a degree in philosophy, politics & economics from Oxford)

Published in Spiked, a British on-line journal that hails itself as being dedicated “to raising the horizons of humanity by waging a culture war of words against misanthropy, priggishness, prejudice, luddism, illiberalism and irrationalism in all their ancient and modern forms.”

1st Assessment: 1990Lead to the creation of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

2nd Assessment: 1995Provided key input to the negotiations that lead to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

3rd Assessment: 2001Devoted increased attention to regional scale issues

4th Assessment: 2007Reported that the warming of the Earth’s climate system was unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

IPCC Technical Paper 1:

“Technologies, Policies & Measures for Mitigating Climate Change”November 1996, IPCC Working Group II

IPCC Technical Paper 2: “An Introduction to Simple Climate Models Used in the IPCC Section Assessment Report”February 1997, IPCC Working Group I

IPCC Technical Paper 3 “Stabilization of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases: Physical, Biological & Socio-economic Implications”February 1997, IPCC Working Group I

IPCC Technical Paper 4 “Implications of Proposed CO2 Emissions Limitations”October 1997, IPCC Working Group I

IPCC Technical Paper 5“Climate Change & Biodiversity” (CCB)April 2002, IPCC Working Group II

IPCC Technical Reports

June

20

08

IP

CC

Wor

king

Gro

up

II

“virtually certain” > 99%

“extremely likely” > 95%

“very likely” > 90%

“likely” > 66%

“more likely than not” > 50%

“about as likely as not” 33% to 66%

“unlikely” < 33%

“very unlikely” < 10%

“extremely unlikely” < 5%

“exceptionally unlikely” < 1%

IPCC standardized “uncertainty language”IPCC standardized “uncertainty language”

“Attribution studies show that most of the observed increase in global temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed

increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

A1 storylineWorld: market-orientedEconomy: fastest per capita growthPopulation: 2050 peak, then declineGovernance: strong regional interactions;

income convergenceTechnology: three scenario groups:• A1FI: fossil-intensive• A1T: non-fossil energy sources• A1B: balanced across all sources

B1 storylineWorld: convergentEconomy: service & information-based;

lower growth than A1Population: same as A1Governance: global solutions to

economic, social & environmental sustainability

Technology: clean & resource-efficient

A2 storylineWorld: differentiatedEconomy: regionally-oriented; lowest per

capita growthPopulation: continuously increasingGovernance: self-reliance with

preservation of local identitiesTechnology: slowest & most fragmented

development

B2 storylineWorld: local solutionsEconomy: intermediate growthPopulation: continuously increasing at a

slower rate than A2Governance: local & regional solutions to

environmental protection & social equity

Technology: more rapid than A2; less rapid, more diverse than A1/B1

environmental emphasis

economic emphasis

glo

bal

inte

gra

tio

n regio

nal em

ph

asisIPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) “storylines”

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment - 4 ScenariosMillennium Ecosystem Assessment - 4 Scenarios

Global Orchestration

Order from

Strength

Adapting

Mosaic

TechnoGarden

sustainable fair trade (reduction improve world; transnationaldevelopment; of tariff boundaries), global public companies; globaleconomic growth; with enhancement of health; global NGO and public goods global public goods education multilateral

organizations

reserves; parks; regional trade blocs; security and multinational national-level mercantilism protection companiespolicies; conservation

local-regional integration of local local communities cooperatives, global co-management rules regulate linked to global organizationscommon-property trade; local non- communities; localinstitutions market rights equity important

green technology; global reduction technical expertise transnational eco-efficiency; of trade boundaries; valued; follow professionaltradable ecological fairly free movement opportunity; associations; NGOsproperty rights of goods, capital, & competition;

people; global openness markets inecological property

Dominant Approach Economic Social Policy Dominant SocialScenario Name for Sustainability Approach Foci Organizations

“… per capita domestic water use in 2050 is broadly similar in all world regions, at around

100 m3/yr …”

100 m3/yr = 72.4 gpcd

total column water vapor

the amount of water vapor contained in a column over a given area on Earth

cryosphere

the sum of snow, ice & frozen water on land – said to store about 75% of the

world’s fresh water