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Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 1
Renewable and Clean Energy: Challenges for our Future
Kenji YamajiThe University of Tokyo
- What is Renewable and Clean Energy ?
- Advantages and Disadvantages of Renewables
- Current State of New Renewable Energies:
Photovolataics(PV), Wind Power, Bioenergy
- Prospects and Challenges
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 2
What is Renewable and Clean Energy ?
- Renewable Energies:
Old and New
Not Stock but Flow, but flow rate is limited
Generally Clean, but have their problems: noise, land use
- Clean Energies:
Many views: Nuclear is clean in terms of CO2 emissions;
Natural gas is clean in terms of SOx emissions;
Coal can be used as clean energy by CCT;
Electricity and Hydrogen: clean energy carrier
- Focus on (New) Renewable Energies: PV, Wind, Bioenergy
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 3
Advantages and Disadvantages of Renewable Energiesin the Context of Sustainability
- Resource Availability: inexhaustible, but limited flow rates
- CO2 Emissions: life cycle CO2 emissions much less than fossil fuels
- Compatibility with Recycle System: energy recovery from wastes (in case of bioenergy)
- Local Accessibility: community resources, but unstable
- Economic Affordability: still expensive
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 4
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 5
Current State of Renewable Energies
- Shares of Renewables in Global Energy Supply (IEA,2000)
Hydropowe: 226Mtoe (2.2%)*
Geothermal (incl. Solar etc.): 51Mtoe (0.5%)*
Combustible Renewables and Waste: 1095Mtoe (10.8%)**
*caveat: conversion of 860kcal=1kWh is applied
(While kWh produced by nuclear is almost as much as that of hydropower, the share of nuclear in global energy supply is counted as 6.7% )
**caveat: 820Mtoe is used in developing area mostly as non-commercial form
- Statistics for New Renewables should be counted differently
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 6
Current State of New Renewable Energies
- Photovoltaics (PV (solar cell)):
World Total Installed Capacity (in 2002): around 1.5GW
Primary Energy Supply: 0.5Mtoe
(assuming 12.5% capacity factor and 2450kcal/kWh):
- Wind Power:
World Total Installed Capacity (in 2002): around 30GW
Primary Energy Supply: 19Mtoe
(assuming 25% capacity factor and 2450kcal/kWh)
- Modern Bioenergy (for electricity, heat, and fuel, in IEA2000):
Electricity: 23Mtoe
CHP(heat and power): 51Mtoe
Heat: 23Mtoe
Fuel and Others: 48Mtoe
Total: 145Mtoe
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 7
Cumulative Installed Capacity of PV
(kWe)
(year)
Japan
Germany
USA
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 8
Wind Power Installation in the World
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 9
Generating Capacity of PV and Wind Power in Japan
0
100
200
300
400
500
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Year
Cap
acit
y [M
W]wind turbine PV
>450MW
>700MW(PV in 2003)
(Wind in 2003)
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 10
Prospects and Challenges (1)
- Theoretical Potential is Huge:
Solar Insolation: more than 10,000 times of global energy requirements
Wind Power: more than theoretical potential of hydropower
(which is equivalent to global energy requirements)
Bioenergy: net primary production (NPP) by photosynthesis is 7 times
of global energy requirements;
(Residues/Waste from food, paper,and timber supply provide attractive resources for bioenergy applications; and, there is a possibility of bioenergy plantation)
- Challenges:
Exploring Technological/Economic/Market Potentials is another:
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 11
Summary of the Studies on Bioenergy Supply Potentials
Evaluationperiod
Year RegionsEnergycrops
(EJ/year)
M odernfuelw ood(EJ/year)
Biom assresidues(EJ/year)
Total(EJ/year)
Hall a) 1991 1991 82 - - 87 -Dessus et al. b) 1985-2020 2020 10 15 65 26 106Johansson et al.c) 1985-2050 2050 10 128 10 68 206Alcam o d) 1990-2100 2050 13 - - 74 74
2100 - - 208 208IPCC-BI e) 2025-2100 2050 7 135 - 48 183
2100 229 - 96 325Fischer et al. f) 1990-2050 2050 11 147-207 91-110 132-135 370-453G LUE-11 g) 1961-2100 2050 11 110 (378) 72 182
2100 22 (378) 114 136
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 12
Prospects and Challenges (2)
- Technology:
Achieving Stable Supply: Energy Storage and Networking
Exploiting Remote Resources: Long Distance Energy Transport,
Off-shore Wind Power, Solar Power in Desert, Space Solar Power Station
- New Economy:
Economies of Mass and/or Co-Production in stead of Scale Economies
Network Economy like Edison System in Electricity Business
Social Infrastructure for Recycling (for Bioenergy from Wastes)
- Policy Measures:
Research & Development
Demonstration Programs
Promotion of Market Diffusion
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 13
Prospects and Challenges (3) Policy Measures in Japan
-Government (Budget in FY2003)
Research & Development: 43.4B¥ (incl. Fuel Cell)
Demonstration Programs: 18.8B¥ (incl. Fuel Cell)
Promotion of Market Diffusion: 94.6B¥ (incl. Clean Energy Vehicle)
Introduction of RPS (Renewables Portfolio Standard)
Biomass Nippon Initiative (Inter-Ministerial Plan for Integrated Use of Biomass)
-Industry (esp. Electric Utilities)
Buying Electricity from Renewables with High Prices (e.g. Retail Prices for PV)
Green Power System (Green Fund and Green Power Certification System)
-NGOs
Various Local Community Activities together with Local Governments
Collaborative Wind Power Installation
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 14
Green Fund for Residential Customers (since 2000)
・donations from residential customers + “matching gift” by electric utilities
Donation
grant
Electric Power Company
Donation¥500/month
Participants
Participants
Participants’ remittancesare matched with
contributions of similaramount
ContinuouslyFundedBodies Solar
Power
SolarPow
erWind
Power
Generation
Wind
Power
Generation
grant
Extended to other renewable power sources
Number of registered clients = approx 20,000(0.1% of total household customers)
In case of Tokyo Electric Power Co. (source: Japan Natural Energy Co.(JNEC)
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 15
Green Power Certification System (since 2000)
Green Power Certification Council,Japan ; GPCC,J
Certification by third party
Report of powerGeneration Record
JNEC
Contract for wind powergeneration
JP¥4/kWh
Subcontracting toAn efficient windPower generation
JP¥3.5/kWh
(42 customers, 43GWh/yr as of 2003)
Wind PowerGenerationCompanies
Starting to cover other renewables such as biogas
CorporateCustomers
Issuance of Certification ofGreen
ElectricPower
Company
JP¥6/kWh
Power off-takeUsual power supply
(source: JNEC)
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 16
RPS(Renewables Portfolio Standard) in Japan (effective since 2003)
Government
(METI)
Advisory Body (Set Target)
1.35% in 2010
Utility A
(with insufficient renewables)
Renewable Power Producer in B area
Utility B (with
sufficient renewables)
construct own renewable power plant or buy in area A
certification of the plants
sanction in case of shortage
electricity sales
trade of renewablescertification
impose duty to collect renewables certification
in each year by 2010
report
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 17
In Short, Renewable Energy is
- Good Candidate for Sustainable Energy Supply;
- Expectations are High;
But,
- Actual Supplies are Modest;
- Poor Economics needs Public Support.
⇒Should we Keep High Expectations?
YES ! (check historical cases)
Kenji Yamaji for ESS2003 18
Transition from Horses to Cars in U.S.
Model T: 16million cars for 1908-1926: corresponds
160GW introduction in less than 20 years assuming 10kW/car.