What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology?

What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?

What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology?

Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?

Why is Tom otherwise?

Introduction (IPAT) Population Consumption Technology Social Justice

IPAT

Impact on the environment =

Population x

Activity per person (or Affluence) x

Technology (impact per activity).

I = P x A x T

• How many of us are there? How much stuff are we doing? How environmentally damaging is the stuff we’re doing?

• Assumes affluence = consumption


IPAT and climate change

Impact (CO2 and other GHG emissions) =Population xAffluence (GDP* per person) xTechnology (Emissions per unit of GDP). I = P x A x T (now you do the units analysis)

* Gross Domestic Product measures a country’s economic output (and income).



Emissions = Population x GDP per person x emissions per unit GDP

• What’s happening with population?

• What’s happening with the economy (GDP per person)?

• What’s happening with technology (emissions per unit GDP)?







2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Bil

lio

ns

0

1

-10000 -7500 -5000 -2500 0 2500

1850

1800

19001950

1975

2000

1968: Garrett Hardin freaks out

October 20, 2008


Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).


Lutz et al. (2001. Nature 412: 543 - 545).Why?

How many children did your grandparents have (on average)?

One Two Three Four Five

Six or more

1%

7%

23%22%

30%

18%

1. One

2. Two

3. Three

4. Four

5. Five

6. Six or more

How many children did your parents have?

One Two Three Four Five

Six or more

10%

46%

3%5%

9%

28%

1. One

2. Two

3. Three

4. Four

5. Five

6. Six or more

How many children do you want to have, or how many did you have?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

21%

14%

44%

1%1%

5%

13%

1. Zero or adopt

2. One

3. Two

4. Three

5. Four

6. Five

7. Six or more


2010


Afghanistan

Malawi

Zimbabwe

India

China Greece Austria USA

Norway

Demographic transition

• World population is still increasing, but it appears to be heading for a peak of around 9 billion. Why???

• Coercion? Environmental awareness? The invisible hand?

• Mostly just blind luck!

• Is 9 billion a lot or a little?

• The UN’s range for 2300 is 2 to 36 billion!


From UN, The World at Six Billion

• Of the 78 million people currently added to the world each year, 95 percent live in the less developed regions.

• Countries with population over 100 million– In 1950: China, India, U.S., Russian federation– In 2000, add Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh,

Japan, Nigeria– In 2050, add Ethiopia, Congo, Mexico, Philippines,

Vietnam, Iran, Egypt, Turkey.

• World population density will increase from 44.6 people/sq km in 2004 to 66 in 2050.

• Ranges from Bangladesh (1045), India (336), China (138) to USA (31) and Canada (3.2)


http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm




• What’s happening with GDP per person?


Per capita GDP

• Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the size of economic activity in a country.

• U.S., 2007: $45,800 GDP per capita• China, 2007: $5,400• Zimbabwe 2007: $200• In 2005, world GDP rose by ≈4-5%, so per

capita GDP growth was ≈3-4%.

CIA World Factbookhttps://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html


Compare GDP with other measuresComparing Nine Countries

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Afghanistan

Austria China GreeceIndia

MalawiNorway

United StatesZimbabwe

Percentage of Maximum

Population (% of max)

GDP (% of max)

Unemploy-ment


Affluence ~ Consumption (?)• A gold wedding ring ~ 3 tons of discharge at a mine in

South Africa or the U.S. (47% of gold is recycled). • A gold watch ~ 10 to 20 tons.• Lunch with two quarter pounders

– If animal was from Brazil, then 54 ft2 (~5 m2) of rain forest is gone, 59 lb of methane produced, ~200 gallons of water, 3.74 lb of grain

– Hamburger bun required wheat, water, nitrogen fertilizer.

• To build your car, it took 605,664 gallons of water for its steel parts and tires. Battery ~ 17.6 lbs of lead produces ~ 682 lbs of pollution at a mine in Australia or the U.S. (73% is recycled), Car has 22 lbs of copper produces ~2178 lbs of discharge somewhere in Chile or the U.S. (60% is recycled).


Professor Yannis Phillis

Average US Citizen (per day)

• Consumes 0.44 lbs (or 53 teaspoons) of sweetners per day (mostly in processed food)

• Produces 33 lbs of C per day (20% of which is due to the personal automobile)

• Excluded food and fuel, one consumes 222 lbs of material per day

• Generates 4.4 lbs of garbage (33% is packaging)

• Ecological footprint is 4x world average; China and India are well below world average.


Professor Yannis Phillis

Professor Phillis’ Model of Sustainability

• Overall sustainability (OSUS) = ecological sustainability (ECOS) + human sustainability (HUMS)

• ECOS = air quality, water quality, land integrity, biodiversity

• HUMS = Political aspects, education, economic welfare, health

Andriantiatsaholiniaina, L.A., V.S. Kouikoglou and Y.A. Phillis. 2004. Evaluating strategies for sustainable development: fuzzy logic reasoning and sensitivity analysisEcological Economics 48: 149 - 172.



Country Number of Cars per person ≥ 16 years old

United States 1.023

France 0.700

Japan 0.608

India 0.011

China 0.009

ABC News 2007

Comparison of Cars per Person





• What’s happening with population?• What’s happening with GDP per person?• By 2100, population may be 50% higher, and

GDP/person may be 50-500% higher.• Yoram’s conclusion: If we’re going to reduce

GHG emissions, it’s gotta be technology.• Justice and power issues will likely result in a

combination of changes.


McKibben argues for a change from ______ to durability and resiliency

1 2 3 4 5

4%

33%

3%3%

57%1. Green GNP

2. Sustainability

3. Demand for expansion

4. Concept of justice

5. Web of connections

McKibben also argues for moving from “X” to “Y”

1 2 3 4

14%

21%

55%

10%

1. Community to wildness

2. Five channel to cable TV

3. Wildness to community

4. Thinking about the future to thinking about now

Good news: Energy use per unit of GDP is falling! (Our economies are becoming less

energy- and carbon-intensive.)


Bad news: The drop in T (technology) has not been keeping pace with increases in P

(population) and A (affluence).


Technological realism: If China and the U.S. keep building coal plants like crazy, IPAT suggests that

carbon emissions will not fall.


Views on technology

•Technological optimists: “Technology will save us! Wind/solar/fuel cells/nuclear/etc.”

•Technological pessimists: “Technology won’t save us—we need changes in values and lifestyles.”

•Technological realists: “If technology doesn’t save us, we’re not going to be saved.”

•Combination: Matching global aspirations with emerging situation - McKibben readings


What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues?

What are current projections for human population growth,

economic growth, and technology?

Why is Yoram a “technological realist” about climate change?

Why has Tom chosen more than technology as a solution?

Documents

What is IPAT and how does it help frame environmental issues? What are current projections for human population growth, economic growth, & technology?