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What is Advanced
Project Risk Management?Rubin Jen, P. Eng, PMP
Beyond ExecutionMarch 3, 2011
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About The Speaker
Rubin is a speaker, writer, teacher andconsultant of project management
PM for 15 yrs across several industries Presented at PMI Global Congress, ProjectWorld
Toronto, PMI Ottawa Symposium
Served on board of directors for the PMI
Southern Ontario Chapter from 2005-2007
Project Management training on Risk, Scopeand PMP
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Agenda
1. What is Advanced Project RiskManagement?
2. How can it help?3. What should I know?
4. How can I use and implement it?
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Whats Your Opinion?
What do you think Advanced Project RiskManagement (APRM) is?
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Different Ideas around APRM
Risk Database
Probabilisticanalysis
Monte Carlo Insurance
Attack Risk
Visualization
Confidence
Levels
Delphi
Opportunity
Management
RiskCommunication IssuesAnalysis
Bubble
Graphs
Quantitative
Analysis
Risk
Project
Manager
Audits
Predictive
Metrics
Risk
Breakdown
StructureRange
Estimates
Risk
Awareness
Risk
Tolerance
Calibration
Qualitative
Analysis
Lessons
Learned
Urgency
Risk
Reporting Enterprise Risk
Management
Monitoring
& Control
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Common Perception
Most Project Managers would likely considerAPRM as deeper in Risk Analysis
Software analysis (Monte Carlo, probabilisticanalysis)
Quantification, cost analysis
Expected Monetary Value, decision trees
What about Risk Planning, Identification,Response and Monitoring & Control?
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Risk Management
Risk:
The effect of uncertainty on objectives
Risk Management: The identification, assessment, and
prioritization of risks followed by coordinatedand economical application of resources to
minimize, monitor, and control the probabilityand/or impact of unfortunate events
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Project Risk Management
Project Risk Management:
The processes of
conducting riskmanagement planning,identification, analysis,response planning and
monitoring & control ona project
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What is Advanced?
dictionary.com:
1. placed ahead or forward
2. ahead or far or further along in progress,complexity, knowledge, skill, etc
3. pertaining to or embodying ideas, practices,attitudes, etc., taken as being more
enlightened or liberal than the standardized,established, or traditional
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Advanced Project Management
The use of tools, techniques and practicesthat are above the standard, to enable better
decisions and more effective projectmanagement
Different tools
Different techniques
Different processes
Different level of thinking
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5d/Seurat-La_Parade_detail.jpg8/13/2019 What is advanced risk management
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Proposed APRM Principles
1. Further reduction of uncertainty
2. More effective response plans
3. Higher level competency and skills
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Reduction of Uncertainty
Greater clarity and understanding of risks
More detailed analysis
Uncover hidden information and trends
Better Assessment
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More Effective Response Plans
Improved prioritization
Greater option development
More effective project management
Better Decisions
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Competency and Skills
Risk ownership
Training
Risk awareness Increased teamwork, buy-in & performance
Better Performance
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What should I know?
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Define Your Objectives
Better decisions
Tools & techniques, processes, decision tree
Better performanceVisualization, buy-in
Team awareness
Better assessment Monte Carlo
Timeframe/urgency
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APRM Outcomes
Better Decisions
Increased identification
Delphi technique Risk audits
Risk breakdown structures
Attacking risk
Mitigation and contingency plans
Decision trees
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APRM Outcomes
Better Performance
Risk management training
Team involvement Risk awareness
Team meetings
Visualization
Visual Ishikawa Risk Technique (VIRT)
Heat map/bubble chart
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APRM Outcomes
Better Assessment
Monte Carlo simulation
Increased subjective range assessment Confidence level estimation
Range estimates
Probabilistic/statistical analysis
Weighted scoring
Urgency
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Implementation Costs
Risk management has been a difficult realmto show ROI
Some risk tools & techniques can cost a lotbut provide very little improvement in return
Its not just about software
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How Can I Use It?
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Choosing APRM
Which parameters provide the maximumeffectiveness for the minimum amount of
time? (biggest bang for the buck?)1. Techniques that are simpler and practical
2. Knowledge that can be easily shared andexplained to others
3. Techniques that can involve others
4. Visualization
5. Better risk prioritization
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Better Decision Techniques
Simple
Technique
Knowledge
Transfer
Collaborative
Techniques
Graphical
Prioritization
Increased identification
Delphi technique
Risk audits
Risk breakdown structures
Attacking risk
Mitigation/contingency plans
Decision trees
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Better Performance Techniques
Simple
Technique
Knowledge
Transfer
Collaborative
Techniques
Graphical
Prioritization
Training
Team involvement
Risk awareness
Team meetings
VIRT
Heat map/bubble chart
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Better Assessment Techniques
Simple
Technique
Knowledge
Transfer
Collaborative
Techniques
Graphical
Prioritization
Monte Carlo
Increased range
Confidence level
Range estimates
Probabilistic analysis
Weighted scoring
Urgency
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Implementing APRM
Understand and assess risk stakeholders
Champions
By-standers End users
Continual education and communication
See results creates buy-in Create mini case studies of successes
Know each techniques implementation costs
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Are We Done Yet?
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Summary
There are a number of ways to be"advanced" but don't confine yourself to
simply analysis tools Utilizing APRM is like a project management
process:
Understand what your needs are, then choose
an appropriate technique(s)
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Contact Information
Name: Rubin Jen, P. Eng, PMP
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (416) 618-1734