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What is a Quadrillion?
Reality vs Promises(Science vs. Political Science)
Dr James Smiley
Understanding the Energy Crisis
How Much Energy Does The World Use?
Where Does it Come From?
What are our options for the Future?
Can Renewable Energy save us?
Projected World Wide Energy Needs
What is this?
How much is it?
“Let’s Define New Unit of Energy”Energy=Power x Time
“1 Unit” =1000 Megawatts of electric power for 1 yr
“A typical large power plant”
ABOUT: 0.1 Quadrillion BTU’s
2200 Megawatt thermal energy for one year
9 million Megawatt-hrs electricity
15 million barrels of oil or ~50 super tankers per yr
3 million tons of coal ~ 36500 car loads per yr (train/day)
90 billion cubic ft of Natural gas per yr (~1 cubic mile)
1 ton Uranium per yr (about a 15”x15”x15” cube)
Energy for about 300,000 People in US for a year
World Wide Energy NeedsAll Energy-Not just Electrical
~7200 “Units”Today-
~5000
“Units”
Growth 2%
~100 units/yr
2 a week!
“Approx Units” 1900 1150 1300 300 300 50
World Energy Consumption by Source
~5000 Total Units
Today
Renewables
Today! <1%
What about The United States
Consumption? Sources?
Future Needs?
We use about 1000 Units!
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Total Energy domestic/Imported
230 units
120 units
30 units ea
~10 units (<1%)
Imported oil
30
300 units
~1000 “units” used today
Growth rate ~2%/year or 20 “units”
30
80 units
200 units
Canada 19%
Mexico & S.Ara. 10%/ea
Venezuela&Nig. 9%ea
Solar, Wind, bio-mass
World Energy use by fuel type
Renewables 6% of total (hydro, wood, included.
Growing yes, but, Percent shrinking?
Where is Crude Oil Consumed(USA)
Personal Cars(About 10% of total energy) ~33%
Trucking ~20%
Planes and Ships ~10%
Chemical Products(over 4000) ~12%
Industrial Heat ~10%
Heat, Light, Electric Power ~8%
Miscellaneous ~7%
Nearly everything in our lives is made from oil, made by machinery and systems dependent on oil, and transported by oil Power.
Ammonia, Anesthetics, Antihistamines, Artificial limbs, Artificial Turf, Antiseptics, Aspirin, Auto Parts, Awnings, Balloons, Ballpoint pens, Bandages, Beach Umbrellas, Boats, Cameras, Candles, Car Battery Cases, Carpets, Caulking, Combs, Cortisones, Cosmetics, Crayons, Credit Cards, Curtains, Deodorants, Detergents, Dice, Disposable Diapers, Dolls, Dyes, Eye Glasses, Electrical Wiring Insulation, Faucet Washers, Fishing Rods, Fishing Line, Fishing Lures, Food Preservatives, Food Packaging, Garden Hose, Glue, Hair Coloring, Hair Curlers, Hand Lotion, Hearing Aids, Heart Valves, Ink, Insect Repellant, Insecticides, Linoleum, Lip Stick, Milk Jugs, Nail Polish, Oil Filters, Panty Hose, Perfume, Petroleum Jelly, Rubber Cement, Rubbing Alcohol, Shampoo, Shaving Cream, Shoes, Toothpaste, Trash Bags, Upholstery, Vitamin Capsules, Water Pipes, Yarn,……
Products from Oil
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
NUCLEAR
WI ND
BI OMASS
HYDRO
SOLAR PV
NATURAL GAS
OI L
COAL
LI GNI TE
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
NUCLEAR
WI ND
BI OMASS
HYDRO
SOLAR PV
NATURAL GAS
OI L
COAL
LI GNI TE
GHGgCeq/kWh
Source: Sokolov, IAEA, 2005
Greenhouse Gas Emission
Let’s Look at Renewables!
They’ve been a goal for a long time!
They get a lot of political play; it’s politically correct!
They would reduce Greenhouse gases vs coal/oil
They won’t run out!
Can they save us?
Can they eliminate dependence on foreign oil?
State of the Union (Who said it? When?)
I urge the energy measures that I have proposed be made the first priority of this session of the Congress. …..They will prevent the injustice of windfall profits for a few as a result of the sacrifices of the millions of Americans.
This must be the year in which we organize a full-scale effort to provide for our energy needs through the 21st century. Let this be our national goal: the United States will not be dependent on any other country for the energy we need
….we plan to spend $10 billion in Federal funds over the next 5 years. That is an enormous amount. But during the same 5 years, private enterprise will be investing as much as $200 billion-- and in 10 years, $500 billion--to develop the new resources, the new technology, the new capacity America will require for its energy needs in the future.
Richard Nixon’s State of Union Address 1974
State of Union Address (Who said it? When?)
… our country finally has a national energy policy:
The windfall profits tax on crude oil has been enacted, and a massive investment in the production and development of alternative energy sources; Solar energy funding has been quadrupled, solar energy tax credits enacted…. Ethanol production has been dramatically increased, an amount that could enable ethanol to meet the demand for 10 percent of all unleaded gasoline;
..it is essential that the Nation reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels and complete the transition to reliance on domestic renewable sources of energy,…
…first step towards widespread introduction of renewable energy sources and established an ambitious national goal for the year XXXX of obtaining 20 percent of this Nation's energy from solar and renewable sources. As a result of these policies and programs… investments in renewable energy sources have grown significantly.
Jimmy Carter State of Union Address 1980
Renewable energy about 6% of Total
Distribution of the 6%
i.e. Niagara Falls, Hoover Dam, Bonneville Dam, etc 58%
Wood stoves, etc
i.e. Lock 7, NYSEG Mechanicville, etc
Wind farms (double this by 2008)
Ethanol
Solar Heat
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Nuclear Fossil EnergyEfficiency
Solar &Renewables
Fusion
10 year avg. 5 year avg. FY02 Approps.
Federal research funding by fuel
General Atomics Corp.
Clean coal $2.9B
Renewables $3.2B
Elect infra $1.5B
Efficiency $1.3B
Oil/Gas $2.7B
Nuclear $1.6B
Clean cars $1.3B
2005 Energy Policy Tax Incentives
U.S. DOE
Government Subsidies
Total: 14.5 Billion in 2005!
“For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.”—Richard Feynman
Energy Density is very low!
One elephant and 100,000 mice have about the same biomass. Which do you want to try to harness to move a railcar? It’s possible, but how practical?
It’s the ENTROPY!
Why so little progress?
Area Required for “one unit” of power
Wind 3000 turbines 40-70 square miles
Solar Photovoltaic 40 square miles
Bio Mass Ethanol 6000 square miles
Bio Mass Wood 12000 square miles
Bio gas 800 million chickens!
Oil/Coal About 1 square mile
Nuclear 0.3 square miles
Saratoga County 844 sq miles
Rhode Island 1000 sq miles
Conservation (a must!-part of assumed growth of only 2%)
Renewables (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, Hydro, Geothermal, Bio-mass)
Domestic Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
How to replace Foreign oil “300 units”
(Plus 20 new “units” in demand per year)
Options
Conservation: Must be part of any plan
Some conservation in 2% growth
Doing pretty good! (Next chart) We need to do more!
Cars about 90 units. 10% increase in CAFÉ
saves 9 units when all cars converted (~10yrs)
Reduce our standard of living? Competitive economy requires abundant energy
World energy demand is growing! (Without us!)
Conserve yes, but can’t save out of the crisis!
Energy Use and Cost
More Cars
TV’s
Electronics
Central air
Computers
Population Growth
Flat, with
“Standard of Living” vs Energy Use
4,000 8,000 12,0000.3
1.0
India
China
Pakistan
Russia
GermanyAustralia
Canada
UKFrance Japan
U.S.
Annual Electricity Use kWh/Capita
0.6
80% of the world’s population is below 0.8 on the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI)
Prosperity
Education
Life span
Electrical Energy Use vs Quality of Life
Why growth in demand?
China, India, Brazil(CIB) 3 billion people
United States 300 million (1/10th)
China, India, Brazil ~1200 kwh/capita
USA ~12000 kwh/capita
When CIB usage goes from 1200 to 2400 kwh/capita,
we would have to go “0” to keep world demand constant!
CONCLUSION: Conservation yes! But we can’t save our way out of this!
Wind PowerFuel is free, renewable, non-polluting, it’s relatively simple!
But: Wind Power is Intermittent (20 to 40% capacity factor)
40 to 70 square miles (3000 turbines) for 1000 MW
But land may still be useable-pasture/crops/factories…
Diffuse energy creates integration/synchronization issues
Often not produced where needed-transmission
Not grid friendly, need storage or Coal/Nuclear backup!
Is it environmentally acceptable? On mountain peaks? Near population?
Do as much as possible when feasible and economical.
Wind Installations
Total Installed US capacity 16.8 Units-delivering about 5 units electrical!
Photo of Maple RidgeTug Hill NY
Maple Ridge Wind Farm
195 Turbines
320 MW installed capacity
$550 Million cost
22000 Acres/34 sq miles
1.6 MW per turbine
Lewis County, Tug Hill Plateau 1600 to 2000 feet elev
Delivers about 0.1 “Unit” on average
Solar Power (World total installed about “16 units”-delivers about “4 units”)
Lots of it, fuel is free, conceptually simple, passive
But: Photovoltaic very costly per megawatt, high maintenance
Solar Thermal costly-need mirrors + heat sink (in the desert?)
Doesn’t work night/cloudy days, capacity factor less than 25%
Energy density extremely low- 40 square miles for 1000MW
Prime locations Southwest desert-far from users
Not Grid friendly, need storage or coal/nuclear backup
Home owners get 30% Fed tax credit
Best use-small scale passive home heating, hot water, remote areas
Solar Photovoltaic
Germany
6 MW
.006 “Units”
Nevada “planned”
6.3 MW
.0063 units
Mohave Desert
About 0.5 “units” max capacity-0.1 “unit” delivered. Cost $3 Billion
Solar Thermal
HYDROELECTRIC
Ideal for electric generation, very cost effective, no carbon dioxide emission, relatively simple.
But: Water distribution diffuse but nature concentrates for us
Not many remaining opportunities to exploit
Environmental concern? – damming of wild rivers?
Useful storage option where available-i.e. pump station
It’s great, use as much as possible, but will be limited to about 5% of total needs (can we use tides?)
2 “Units”
Hoover Dam
Niagara Falls
2.4 Units-USA
2 “Units” Canada
Hydroelectric Plants
GEOTHERMAL
Great source of zone heating and electric power where available. (Like Iceland)
Large heat source deep in earths core, hard to get at, hard to extract large quantities
Few accessible supplies-need both hot rocks and water
There is a 50 degree F heat sink 10 feet down! How to use it?
Do whenever feasible, but NOT readily available
Possibilities? Maybe!
Nesjavellir Iceland
0.12 “Units” Plus hot water heating
Geothermal Plant
It’s an attractive concept!
It’s Renewable-can be replenished
Plants take Carbon Dioxide back out of the air
But: Uses a lot of land, Competes food supplies
One acre of corn provides 40 or 50 gallons of Ethanol
May use more energy than produced?
One “unit” takes area greater than Rhode Island
Burning wood, converting corn or soy beans into ethanol, use vegetation to make diesel fuel, algae into diesel!
Biomass
Not a good solution!
OIL/GASOLINE Provides 95% of Transportation, supports many Industrial Products, Transportation infrastructure is in place
But: High carbon dioxide emission
Cost rising rapidly
Supplies limited- peak oil? Oil shale possibility-costly
We need to import large amounts, economy vulnerable
We’re vulnerable to “blackmail with many dollars going to our “enemies”
Use for Transportation and Industrial Production. Drill-will need all we can get-Increase supplies!
Gap in Oil supply and need
NATURAL GASProvides most of the home and commercial heating(cheapest option), infrastructure in place, domestic supply, easily transported. High energy content.
But: Upward pressures on price/demand
Rapid growth in use for electrical generation; a more expensive option
Usable for transportation, but need major infrastructure
Available supplies should be used for home and commercial heating. Avoid excessive cost growth!
Capacity Brought on Line by Fuel Type (1950-2004)
Source: RDI PowerDat database. Last updated 9/15/03.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Na
me
Pla
te C
ap
ac
ity
MW
Other Petroleum Hydro Nuclear Gas Coal
Other
Petroleum
Hydro
Nuclear
Nat’l Gas
Coal
MWe
80,000
40,000
200119741950
NEW ELECT CAPACITY(USA)
“20 units”
“40 units”
Coal It currently provides nearly 50% of our electric power-lowest cost. We have domestic supply.
(Remember when it was used for heating and transportation?)
But: High Carbon dioxide emission
Mining and transport dirty and risky
Environmental impact-strip mining, emissions
Reality! Must remain a major energy source; probably more than current 50%. Invest in “clean coal technology”
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Nuclear 1.72
Coal 1.80Gas 5.77Oil 5.53
2003 cents per kilowatt-hour
Nuclear Energy Institute
Cost Comparison of Electrical GenerationX
Solar(35cents) Wind (6-9 cents)
X?
Prairie States Plant Illinois-Planned
1.6 “Units” A newer clean coal plant
New Coal Plant
Nuclear PowerProvides 20% of our electric power; safe, clean, green, Equals coal with lowest electricity fuel cost.
But: No new plants for 20 years
Waste storage an issue-political?
New plants have high initial construction cost
Public acceptance
Nuclear must be a major source of future energy . Can also be used for producing water and hydrogen. Can breed new fuel when needed!
North Anna ESP SiteTypical Nuclear Power Plant
Country # Under Constructio
n
# Planned or Proposed
Argentina 1
Brazil 1
Bulgaria 1
Canada 1 4
China 4 27
Czech Republic
2
Egypt 1
Finland 1
France 1
India 9 24
Indonesia 2
Iran 1 4
Israel 1
Country # Under Construction
# Planned or Proposed
Japan 2 12
N. Korea 1 1
S. Korea 8
Pakistan 1
Romania 1 3
Russia 4 9
Slovakia 2
So. Africa 1
Turkey 3
Ukraine 1
USA 1
Vietnam 2
Total 24 113
World Nuclear Association, world-nuclear.org
New Nuclear Plants
Uranium Supply
World Reserves! View of Options
Oil-Use 2500 Units of Oil = ~40 billion Barrels/yr
Reserve is ~1300 billion Barrels =~35 to 50 years
Oil sand/shale maybe ~ 30 years more-expensive?
Coal-Use 1800 Units= 3 millions tons of coal
Reserve is ~ 900 billion tons = 200 to 300 years
Natural Gas-Use 1300 Units = 3Trillion Cubic Meters
Reserve is ~ 180 trillion Cubic Meters=60 to 80 years
Uranium- Use 400 Units
Reserve is ~ 200yrs to >>1000’s yrs (with breeding)
Total use is 5000 “Units” per year
SummaryCoal must remain be a major source of our electricity.
Fix the CO2
Nuclear energy must become big player-Open Yucca, reprocess
Oil will be in Short Supply! Costs going up!
Use for transportation/industrial products
Natural gas should be used for home and commercial heating
Wind do as much as practical, develop storage
New capacity likely less than the “20 unit”/yr growth? (60,000 turbines/yr)
Solar and geothermal when economical-will be small players!
Biomass is wrong approach except in special situations
Conclusion
Do renewables when cost effective. They can reduce CO2
Renewables will not be major player in reducing oil dependence
Solar –costly, diffuse-best use-home heating/hot water
Wind viable, can help, but limited and not grid friendly
Bio-mass small player, doesn’t make sense
Making renewables focus is not reality
Obscures the hard choices
Coal & Nuclear will be the major players-do them right!
Oil / Gas will be scarce, prices will go back up! Domestic Drilling
BACKUP SLIDES
USA Energy Source/Use (%)Note: 1% is about 10 of our new “Units”
US Energy Flow
Wind Speed and Power – Lee Ranch Colorado For Yr 2002
Lee Ranch Colorado
10 mph 23 mph
8760 hrs
Above 20 mph only 10% of time
Wind Turbine Usage Factor
Natural Gas Production and Price
Global Temperature
Maple Ridge Photo
Low- emissions Options
Method Requirement / Description Land Area (sq. miles) Photovoltaic 100 km2 @ 10% efficiency 40 Wind 3,000 Wind Turbines @ 1 MW ea. 40 - 70Biogas 60,000,000 pigs or 800,000,000 chickens? ?
6,200 km2 of sugar beets 2,400Bioalcohol 7,400 km2 of potatoes 2,800
16,100 km2 of corn 6,200272,000 km2 of wheat 104,000
Bio-oil 24,000 km2 of rapseed 9,000 Biomass 30,000 km2 of wood 12,000
Nuclear <1 km2 1/3
Idaho National LaboratoryGeneral Atomics Corporation
Need to Recognize Renewables have Low Energy Density
Land Area Needed for 1000 MW(1 “Unit”)
Peak oil
Goal/Purpose of talk
1. Educate public about our energy crisis; how big is the problem, how world energy demand effects it, …Put it terms that are more understandable
2. Show what options are valid/which are not, based science, not politics!
3. Put current political posturing/pandering on energy in perspective
4. Briefly discuss pros and cons of the different options Petroleum, coal, wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, et al
5. This is not a pro nuclear talk, but conclusion is that we should pursue most options but coal and nuclear are only viable solutions for foreseeable future.
Energy Reserves
1 ZJ=~10000 units Use ~5000 units/yr
Strategic Oil Reserves
~700 Million Barrels Stored in the reserve
This equals about 45 of our “Units”
Use about 400 Petroleum “Units”/year
- About 40 to 50 days of reserve-total usage
Import about 300 Petroleum “Units”/year
-About 50 to 60 days of import equivalent
BTU Content
Natural gas:1 Cubic Foot of Natural Gas = 1030 Btu's1 CCF = 100 Cu Ft = 1 Therm = 103,000 Btu's
Propane:1 Gal Propane = 91,600 Btu's1 Cu Ft Propane = 2,500 Btu's
Gasoline:1 Gal Gasoline (mid grade) = 125,000 Btu's
Ethanol:1 Gal Ethanol = 76,000 Btu's
Fuel Oil:1 Gal of #2 Fuel Oil = 139,000 Btu's1 Gal of #4 Fuel Oil = 145,000 Btu's1 Gal of #6 Fuel Oil = 150,000 Btu's
All of the following fuels are equivalent to 1,000,000 Btu's.
Electricity 293.083 kWh (3412 Btu/kWh)
Natural Gas: 1 MCF, 10 therms or 1,000 cubic feet
Coal: 83.34 pounds@ 12,000 Btu/pound
Propane 10.917 gallons@ 91,000 Btu/gallon
Gasoline 8.0 gallons@125,000 Btu/gallon
Fuel Oil #2 7.194 gallons@ 139,000 Btu/gallon
Fuel Oil #6 6.67 gallons@ 150,000 Btu/gallon
Wood 285.7 pounds@ 3,500 Btu/pound
Gasoline ~ 20,000 Btu/pound1 Gal .85 E=117,600 Btu’s (94%) gas
Energy Consumption
About 5000 Total “Units”
1 TW approx 400 “units”
World Energy Consumption
ApproxNo. EQ Units
2000
1600
1300
350
150
Barrel of Crude Oil
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Understanding the Energy Crisis
Historical Gas Prices
Where Money Goes (2005)
Understanding the Energy Crisis
New York Gas Taxes
Understanding the Energy Crisis
New York State ~33 cents
Local Sales Tax ~8 cents
Federal Tax ~19 cents
TOTAL ~60 cents per Gallon
Gasoline TaxesState Taxes cents/gal
Excise tax 8
Business Petro tax 16.4
State gas tax 8
Petro testing fee .05
Oil spill tax .3
Sub Total 32.75 Cents per gal
Federal Taxes
Excise tax 18.4
Superfund tax .003
Oil spill tax .0012
Sub Total 18.82 Cents per gal
County Sales tax 8 cents per gal- capped at 4% of $2
Total 59.57 cents per gal
Where Does My Gas Money Go?
Understanding the Energy Crisis
~$100 a barrel
42 Gal/Barrel
~$2.40 gal. of crude
Add 7% for NYS tax$0.60
$0.35
$0.24
$2.10
$3.3068%
$0.40
$0.33
$0.24
$2.07
$3.04
Reference: Energy Information AdministrationReference: Energy Information Administration
Electric Power Industry Fuel Costs
Uranium in crust of earth
Solar Thermal Power Plant
Renewable Energy Distribution 2004
Renewable Energy 2006
