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What if Electricity Became Too Cheap To Meter?
Exponential change is about to disrupt your futureChad Riland – Innovation Manager – Edison Senior ExpertNick Wanke – Software Development Manager
I think there is a world market for
maybe five computers.
- Thomas J. Watson, 1943, Chairman of the Board of IBM
640K ought to be enough for anybody.
- Bill Gates, 1981Microsoft
Total market for cell phones is about 900,000
- James O. McKinsey & Co, mid1980’s
Our intuition about the future is linear.
But reality … is exponential, and
that makes a profound difference
- Ray Kurzweil, 2010
If I take 30 steps linearly, I get to 30. If I take 30 steps
exponentially, I get to a billion.
- Ray Kurzweil, 2010
The Wheat & Chessboard Reference
Image on right: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_
and_chessboard_problem
t1 t2
t1 t2 t1 t2
LINEAR vs EXPONENTIAL
US will have an installed solar PV
capacity of 8.9 gigawatts by 2035
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011
As of Mar 2016 data the figure was already greater than 21 gigawatts!
As of Mar 2016 data the figure was already greater than 21 gigawatts!
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=24852&mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRoguqXMc%2B%2FhmjTEU5z17OwpUKSylMI%2F0ER3fOvrPUfGjI4FSspkMK%2BTFAwTG5toziV8R7DNLM1wy8YQWhPh
The United States has slightly more than 20,000 megawatts (MW) of solar generating capacity, which includes utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal installations, as well as distributed generation solar PV systems, also known as rooftop solar. - February 5, 2016
“What this relationship shows is that we are well
on our way to seeing solar
panels cost almost nothing -- and
there is no hyperbole in this
statement.”
2014-11-24http://www.greentechmedia.com/ar
ticles/read/Is-there-really-a-Swansons-Law
Price of PV Cells - $ Per Watt
Solar Growth is
Exponential
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/pdf/epm.
Solar Net Generation2005 – 2015
Source: EIA Mar 2016
6,106 Added Jan-Mar 2016 already!
Solar Growth is Exponential
http://greenmonk.net/2015/07/02/world-energy-abundance/
Exponential Axis
Solar Growth is Exponential
Q2 2015 Solar Market Insight Fact Sheet
Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA)
U.S. Solar Electric Installations
http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-industry-data
Other Exponential
Technologies
• IoT – Internet of Things• Computing• AI• Robotics• Nanotech• Biotech• Neuroscience
http://www.i-scoop.eu/internet-of-things
50 Billion Devices by 2020
Some Great Infographics
• “America’s solar boom, in charts”
• http://grist.org/climate-energy/americas-solar-boom-in-charts/
• Finally – an exponential curve – wait – that is an historic curve!
“Solar Will Power the World
in 16 Years”
Ray Kurzweil, 2011
“I think the grid gets disrupted.
The only question is do you want to
be the disruptor or do you want to get
disrupted.”
- David Crane, 2014 NRG Energy CEO
…there is little doubt that we are
heading into an era of unlimited and almost free clean energy. This has
profound implications.
- Vivek Wadwa, 2014Stanford…
Historic Changes in Energy
Coal
• U.S. stopped directly using coal for transportation by 1920 and for buildings by 1960
Lovins, Amory (2011-Sep) “Reinventing Fire”
Historic Fast Changes in Energy
Whale Oil History 1850-1859
1850 • Whaling America’s
5th Largest Industry• Most US houses lit w/ whale-oil
lamps1859
• 5/6th of whale oil’s lighting market taken over
• Coal oil converters and Kerosene
Lovins, Amory (2011-Sep) “Reinventing Fire”
Too Cheap to Meter Crazy?
Negative prices occurred in the Northwest during the spring and early summer when low-cost hydroelectric generation exceeded local demand by a wide margin.
2012 Febhttp://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/
detail.cfm?id=5110
Too Cheap to Meter Crazy?
On four days in 2010, surplus wind power sent bulk power prices below zero.
Lovins, Amory (2011-Sep) “Reinventing Fire”
In September 2015 wind generation in Texas was so high it pushed wholesale electricity prices into the
negative.
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/10/01/texas-electricity-prices-going-negative/
Too Cheap to Meter Crazy?
In Germany, where inflexible power generation from renewables is increasing, 56 hours on 15 days with negative prices were observed on the Day-Ahead market in 2012. On the Intraday market there were 41 hours on 10 days.
https://www.epexspot.com/en/company-info/basics_of_the_power_market/negative_prices
Germany is world’s top PV installer.
In 2014 PV was ~7% net electricity generation.
“By 2016, solar power will be as cheap or cheaper than
electricity from the conventional grid in every state except three. That’s without any changes to
existing policy.”
2014 Novhttp://grist.org/climate-energy/americas-solar-
boom-in-charts/
Chart from: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-29/while-you-were-getting-worked-up-over-oil-prices-this-just-
happened-to-solar
The blue bars show (anticipated cost of solar energy minus average electricity prices)
3 years to Equal Cost
for Solar Positive numbers indicate savings over electricity
“[Solar] will soon undercut even the cheapest fossil
fuels in many regions of the planet, including poorer
nations where billion-dollar coal plants aren’t always
practical.”
2014 Oct
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-29/while-you-were-getting-worked-up-over-oil-prices-this-
just-happened-to-solar
Price of Energy Sources since 1940
PV Solar Parity Has
Begun!
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
- EIA June 2015
http://solarcellcentral.com/cost_page.html
Energy Plant TypeLifetime
Cost ¢ per Kwh
Offshore Wind 20.0Peaker Natural Gas 18.0Coal with CCS - “Clean Coal” 14.4PV Solar 12.5
Gas Combined Cycle with CCS 10.0
Biomass 10.0Advanced Nuclear 9.5Conventional Coal 9.5Hydro-electric 8.4
Natural Gas Combined Cycle 7.5
Land Based Wind 7.4Geothermal 4.8
CCS stands for Carbon Control and Storage (Sequestration) in a remote underground location.
2016 Feb 16
http://www.smartgridnews.com/story/business-usual-20-states-solar-grid-parity/2016-02-16?utm_medium=nl&utm_source=internal
Business as usual: 20 states at solar grid parity
Solar energy could
dominate electricity by
2050
- International Energy Agency (IEA)
2014 Sep
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/29/us-solar-iea-electricity-idUKKCN0HO11K20140929
Visualization of Price of Energy Sources
since 1940
Solar Net Generation (EIA Mar 2016 Data)Trendline Exploration to 2020
> 2,000,000 Thousand Megawatt hours in 2020
Solar Net Generation (EIA Mar 2016 Data)Trendline Exploration to 2021
(5 years out from today)
Total Generation as of Nov 2015
Thousand Megawatt Hours
Coal 1,490,956
Natural Gas 1,314,256
Nuclear 800,906
Total Generation 4,098,198
Projected Solar in 2021 ~ 4,750,000
“solar energy is only six doublings — or less than 14 years — away from meeting 100 percent of today’s energy needs.” Ray Kurzweil from 2014
Solar’s“S” Curve
Where are we?
US Tax Credit Subsidies
scheduled to expire at end of
2015 were renewed by Congress in
December 2015 and will now
phase out and expire in 2022
If Electricity was Too Cheap to Meter…
No need to distribute Natural
Gas?
If Electricity was Too Cheap to Meter…
We convert saltwater to
drinking water plentifully
Bill Gates’Water
Purification System.
Not The Only Change
Other Renewables
Lovins, Amory (2011-Sep). “Reinventing Fire”
Figure 5-7
Not The Only Change
Storage
2015 Febhttp://www.channelnewsasia.com/n
ews/singapore/singapore-canada/1679142.html
“could more than double the energy capacity of lithium-ion batteries.”
Not The Only Change
Storage
Oregon State University
2015 Octhttps://www.sciencedaily.com/releas
es/2015/10/151006150334.htm
“they may provide a long cycling life, a high power density, a lot lower
cost”
Potassium can work with graphite in a potassium-ion battery. Challenges dogma for what is possible in a lithium-ion battery
Not The Only
Change
Government & Regulatory
2014 Aprilhttp://www3.dps.ny.gov
This book explains how business … can advantageously achieve the ambitious transition beyond oil and coal by 2050, and later beyond natural gas too.
Not Just Climate Change
“OPEC and the Costs to the U.S. Economy of Oil Dependence: 1970-2010”
http://bakercenter.utk.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2013/02/Oi
lDependenceCosts2010-New-Cover021413.pdf
4 Scenarios Reviewed
• Maintain - Assumes future like today’s system
• Migrate - Assumes switch to more nuclear power and new coal plants
• Renew - Examines how renewables like solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and hydro can provide 80% of U.S. electricity.
• Transform - Picks up where Renew leaves off. More distributed generators like rooftop solar, CHP, fuel cells, and small-scale wind.
Page 43Confidential Property of Schneider Electric |
Transform
“…exploits renewables’ geographic and technological diversity as Renew does but needs half its transmission because distributed generation is at or near customers”
RMI’s eLab & Current Visionhttp://www.rmi.org/elab
Recent activities of RMI and the vision described is documented here: http://www.rmi.org/Electricity
Regulators Wielding Power
No solar, please — we’re Florida
2014 Aughttp://grist.org/climate-energy/no-
solar-please-were-florida/
“The business models that have made solar systems financially viable …are largely illegal in Florida, Virginia, South Carolina and some other Southern states.”
UtilitiesWielding Power
Slowing Battery Innovation
2014 Marchhttp://www.sfgate.com/business/article/SolarCity-accuses-utilities-of-slowing-
5325791.php
Turf Wars
SolarCity sues Arizona utility over solar anti-competitive practices
2015 March 3https://gigaom.com/2015/03/03/solarcity-sues-arizona-utility-over-solar-anti-
competitive-practices/
SolarCity, has filed a lawsuit in Arizona federal court claiming that the Arizona utility Salt River Project is using anti-competitive practices to maintain a monopoly around energy and solar power and unfairly block competition.
Turf Wars
SolarCity and Nevada over net metering
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/nevada-puc-denies-request-to-stay-solar-
net-metering-reforms/412140/
In December 2015, the Commission unanimously approved a new solar net metering rate that decreases the rate paid to rooftop solar customers for the power they export to the grid.
New Partnerships
NY utilities, solar companies propose transition away from retail net metering
2016-04-20
http://www.utilitydive.com/news/ny-utilities-solar-companies-propose-
transition-away-from-retail-net-meter/417787
A group of six utilities and three solar companies filed a proposal with the New York Public Service Commission (PSC) that aims to transition the state away from the current net metering policy.
Some Great Infographics
• “America’s solar boom, in charts”
• http://grist.org/climate-energy/americas-solar-boom-in-charts/
• Finally – an exponential curve –wait – that is an historic curve!
“We need to declare hunting season on the duck chart!”
Mark Ferron - California ISO Board of Governors
& Retired, Cal PUC Commissioner
March 2014
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/retired-cpuc-commissioner-takes-aim-at-caisos-duck-curve
Quack!
How can we boost distributed solar and save utilities at the same time?
2013 Aprilhttp://grist.org/climate-energy/how-can-we-boost-distributed-solar-and-
save-utilities-at-the-same-time/“Crossborder found for NetMetering that a) the costs and benefits alike were
relatively small beans, and b) the benefits outweighed the costs by a
small margin.”
Disruption Does Not Mean Despair
Non-utility businesses drive DTE Energy earnings growth
2015 Feb http://www.utilitydive.com/news/no
n-utility-businesses-drive-dte-energy-earnings-growth/364835/
Our children will enjoy in their homes
electrical energy too cheap to meter...
- Lewis Strauss, 1954US Atomic Energy Commission
A transition period is a period
between two transition periods.
George Stigler, U of Chicago Economist
Change is inevitable, growth
is intentional.
- Colin Wilsona prolific English writer known as
a philosopher and novelist
Schneider Electric is Aligned with
Changes
Our answer:
Helping people makethe most of their energy
we solve problems
Our answer:
Helping people makethe most of their energy
A Massive Subject
62
Control Center Substation Feeder Customer
Our Solar Forecasting Experience
●Utility-scale solar power & irradiance forecasting●PV (PhotoVoltaic)●CSP (Concentrated Solar
Power)
●Distributed solar projects,for utilities
●Providing solar irradiance forecasts to dozens of utilities for load forecasting
Part of DOE Sunshot project,a member of the NCAR team
Control Center Substation Feeder Customer
ey Aspects of Schneider Electric’s Solar Forecasts• Accuracy: state-of-the art machine learning techniques applied
• The forecast is trained using plant historical data
• Forecasts learn the characteristics of the plant, for optimal accuracy
• Can support all types of solar and solar power forecast requirements
• Power/Energy, GHI and DNI
• Sub-hourly or hourly time resolution forecasts, out 7 days
• Global
bstation Feeder Customer
DMS Operation & Optimization of DG, DER, and Microgrids
• Dispatch (reliability and economic purposes)
• Dispatch entire network or localized areas
• Increase or decrease generation (automatically/manually)
• Operation Validation
• What-if analysis in simulation mode
• Prevent operation on adjacent feeders
• Volt/VAR Optimization
• Manage VVO in the presence of DG/DERs/microgrids
• Relay Protection Coordination
• Adaptive relay protection and transfer trip settings
• Microgrid Islanding
• Maintaining reliable service and coordinate reconnection
ility Consulting
istributed Energy Resource Planning
Utility financial and technical impact analysis and associated action plan
icrogrid Impact Study
Readiness report, which reviews effects and examinesimplementation methods
ility Consulting
istributed Energy Resource Planning
Utility financial and technical impact analysis and associated action plan
icrogrid Impact Study
Readiness report, which reviews effects and examinesimplementation methods
Control Center Substation Feeder Customer
Control Center Substation Feeder Customer
Control Center Substation Feeder Customer
Control Center Substation Feeder Customer
ility Consulting
istributed Energy Resource Planning
Utility financial and technical impact analysis and associated action plan
icrogrid Impact Study
Readiness report, which reviews effects and examinesimplementation methods
https://infrastructurecommunity.schneider-electric.com/docs/DOC-5322
Smart DistributionADMS, Substation & Feeder Automation
Demand Responsevia Voltage Reduction, Volt/VAR
Optimization, Load Reduction, Energy Storage and Microgrid Management
Efficient HomesIncl. EV Charging Infrastructure
cting utilities with customers, bridging supply & demand for greater efficiency
Efficient EnterpriseBuildings, Industries & Datacenters
+ EV Charging Infrastructure
Smart GenerationBulk, Distributed & Renewable
ajor components of a Smart Grid that mustfectively interoperate
eveloping a Roadmap to a
Smarter Utility”
ch utility must map its journey ed on its own unique business rivers and technology needs
en five-step methodologyDefine internal roles and responsibilitiesConduct workshops to discuss drivers and requirementsDefine priorities through a business caseDocument the planCommunicate
https://infrastructurecommunity.schneider-electric.com/docs/DOC-4899
Geospatial
ecent survey shows t less than 5% of ties are confident
out the quality of the work data.
st Practices for Creating r Smart Grid Network
del”wnload.schneider-com/files?p_Doc_Ref=998-2095-11-11-EN
e 3 C’s -mplete, Correct & rrentour GIS Smart Grid Ready?ate-of-the-Industry Report” –Meehan
www.esri.com/~/media/Files/Pdfs/software/l_pages/smart-cs/smartgridreport.pdf
ESRI survey of 226 utility companies regarding the readiness of their network data for Smart Grid implementation
>20% of utilities had their oldest network asset work order open for 6–12 months
>30% typically see 31–90 days for the database to be updated following completion of the work order
Only 2–5% were confident in the accuracy of their network data
60–70% reported their network databases were missing data
ngle Version of e Truth
mmit the sources and time improve the ality and
meliness of GIS d other source ta
signer 11 –elping signers make ore accurate signs without tting in their y.”
eospatial Professional Services
tion Architect Team
ranslate utility's enterprise GIS vision into strategic and technical admap
mplementation strategy, system architecture, and technology onsulting
base Administrator
atabase performance, tuning, and optimization
ata review, migration, and updates
ementation Services
ation Services
roduct usage best practices consulting
we being too conservative?
we or you not moving fast ough to meet the shifting eds of your customers and ulatory bodies?
th Changes ur Opportunities & oblems Also Shift
Train yourself to see exponential for exponential not linear
Prioritize near term actions appropriately
How can Schneider Electric help you?
Supplemental Materials
Control Center to Customer Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsbTuXvcMFg&feature=youtu.beFor more information on ADMS: https://infrastructurecommunity.schneider-electric.com/community/products/smart-grid-products/ or contact [email protected] more information on weather forecasts: http://www.schneider-electric.com/solutions/ww/en/sol/26106113-weather-solutions-for-utilities or contact [email protected]
SMnded Support & Maintenance
Madelyn KnippExtended Support & Maintenance [email protected]
Steve PollardBusiness Operations [email protected]
