What Didnt Happen

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" . - .INFOMEMO

JUN 072004

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FOR: SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

;::1 FROM: Ryan Henry, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for

SUBJECT: "What Did Not Happen?" (U)

You asked for a list o f the things for which we planned in OperationIRAQf'f<REEDOM that did not happen.

"I t Turkey, Iran, or Israel are drawn into the conflict or become tooadventurous.

"I t Saddam uses WMD against U.S. or allied forces.

"It Saddam attacks Israel; Israel retaliates.

. . Iraq descends into anarchy.

. . Iraq becomes balkanized.

"I t There is a prisoner of war or hostage crisis.

. . Saddam uses WMD against rebellious areas in Iraq.

. . U.S. forces pursue high value targets into Syria or Iran.

, .. There is widespread vigilante justice.

DECLASSIFIEDAUT!-l0R!TV F0 12958

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Shi 'a holy sites are damaged or destroyed.

There are mass food shortages.

. . There are large numbers of internally displaced people and internationalrefugees.

"Fortress Baghdad" holds out indefinitely.

There are mass Iraqi casualties.

The oil infrastructure is severely damaged or destroyed.

Disruption of oil production causes widespread economic problems.

Another state (e.g. North Korea) takes advantage o f U.S. focus on Iraq.

. . Saddam's intelligence services conduct unconventional strikes against U.S.forces in the Middle East or elsewhere.

. . We are unable to find Saddam.

- Saddam escapes.

. . U.S. focus on Iraq weakens GWOT efforts worldwide; terrorists attackbroadly.

. . There is a dramatic surge in terrorist recruitment.

. . Saddam is able to persuade the world that the U.S. is waging a war on

Islam.

. . A revolt o f the "Arab street" in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan causespolitical instability.

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• Coordinated Palestinian attacks on Israel precipitate a high-profileresponse.

• Special Operations Forces fail to neutralize or contain conventional forcesin northern/western Iraq.

• There is anned conflict with the Badr Corps during major combatoperations.

• Gulf states deny U.S. forces the freedom of action required to conductcombat or post-combat operations.

• Iraqi missile attacks cause mass casualties in Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.

DECLASSIFIEDEO 12958

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What Didnt Happen