What Climate Change May Mean for the AlbuquerqueRegion

Projections about how climatechange may affectAlbuquerque’s water resources

Scoping communityvulnerability & hazards

Questions and discussion

Climate Change in the US, US Global Climate ChangeResearch Program, 2014

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On the web http://nca2014.globalchnage.gov/report/regions/southwest

Big Picture Findings

Snowpacks and streamflows projected to decline -decreasing surface water reliability.

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Mid-centurysnow waterequivalent isprojected drop42% in NM and13% in COcompared tothe 1971-2000period.

,

-1%

-42%

-66%

-4%-13%

-26%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

2006-2035 2041-2070 2070-2099

Pro

ject

ed

Pe

rce

nt

Re

du

ctio

nProjected Snow Equivalent for New Mexico and Colorado

(Future Compared to 1971-2000)

New Mexico

Colorado

Big Picture Findings

Regional temperatures projected to increase posingincreased threats and costs to

public health

urban electricity

water supplies

ecosystems

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Source:USEPA

Source: NASASource:CDC

Lake Heron

Big Picture Findings

Severe and sustained drought will increase competitionamong farmers, energy producers, and cities.

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Climate Impacts, Southwest Region – New Mexico,cont.

Regional annual average temperatures projected torise by 2.5o to 5.5o F by 2041-2070.

Summertime heat waves projected to becomelonger and hotter.

Decreased wintertime cold outbreaks.

Reduced winter and spring precipitation.

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Climate Change and Its Implications for New Mexico’s WaterResources and Economic Opportunity, NMSU & UNM, 2007

Comparing 2030 and2080 to year 2000

Hydro-economic model ofRio Grande Watershed

Climate change hydrologicresponses, water demandsand allocations to highestvalued uses, and economicbenefits/losses

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Some limits of the “hydro-economic” study…

Does not address/reflect institutional constraints towater use and transfers in the state.

Uses economic theory to project “highest use” of water.

Does not project ACTUAL allocations.

Somewhat dated.

Can be used as an illustration of growingcompetition for water during climate change.

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Projected Streamflow and Water Use Changes bySector and Scenario

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Projected Streamflow and Economic Output Changesby Sector and Scenario

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Projected Annual Economic Impacts by Sector(yr 2000 dollars)

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Year/ Direct Economic Impacts Direct &

Scenario (in year 2000 dollars) Secondary

Impacts

Agriculture Municipal/ Reservoir/ Total Total

Industrial Recreation Direct

Impacts2030 Mid- -7M -0.6M -0.7M -8.3M -13 toRange

Scenario25 M

2080 Mid- -51M -6M -5M -62M -93 to -Range

Scenario185M

Big Picture Findings

Supply of water declines while demand increases.

15% mid-range increase in water prices by 2030

103% mid-range increase in water prices by 2080

Significant direct and secondary economic impacts.

Agricultural sector could face largest economicimpact.

Reduced streamflows = reduced assimilativecapacity.

Maintaining water quality will be more difficult and morecostly for dischargers

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National Climate Viewer, U.S. Geological Survey

Comparing 1950-2005baseline to 2050-2070

Climate ModelIntercomparisonProgram (CMIP)

Downscaled 30 (CMIP)non-dynamic climatemodels

Shows individual modelresults and “mean”model

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On the web http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/clu_rd/nccv.asp

National Climate Change Viewer, Bernalillo County, NMUSGS – Mean Model Results

Temperature

Projected 7.2o F increase in average annual maximumtemperature.

Projected 6.2o F increase in average annual minimumtemperature.

No change in annual mean precipitation

0 – 0.2 in/month mean decrease in snow (Nov. –Apr)

0.1 in/month mean decrease in runoff (Feb-June)

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No change in mean annual precipitation? So what’sthe problem?

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Models don’t predictmuch change inannual precipitation,but large increases inevapotranspiration.

Change in runoff isthe differencebetween precipitationandevapotranspiration.

Watershed Modeling to Assess…Climate Change andUrban Development, USEPA, 2013

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Comparing 1971-2000 baseline to2070

Watershed simulations SWAT

Downscaled 6 dynamic climate models

Includes projected mid-century urban-residential development

Shows individual model and ensemblemodel results

Shows 20 watersheds andsubwatersheds to 8-digit HUC

On web http://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/global/recordisplay.cfm

Rio Grande at Albuquerque – Mid Century Comparedto 1971-2000

Given climate andurban developmentprojections, themodel ensemblefor the Rio Grandeat Albuquerqueprojects significantreductions involume, flow, andloading at mid-century.

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-17%-23%

-29%

-40%

-48%-51%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

100y Peak Flow 7d Low Flow Total Volume TSS Load TP Load TN Load

Pro

ject

ed

Pe

rce

nt

Re

du

ctio

n

Albuquerque HUC8: Rio Grande Valley Basin

What about intensity of precipitation projected at JemezDam? Looking at the six climate change models…

Up to the 25-yearstorm event, rainfallintensity is similar.

50-year and maxyear events areprojected toincrease 10 mm orapprox. 0.4 inches(mean of models).

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2 5 10 25 50 max

Dai

lyP

reci

p(m

m)

Recurrence (yr)

Historic

Scen 1

Scen 2

Scen 3

Scen 4

Scen 5

Scen 6

Mid Region Council of Governments Study

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Comparing 2040 tobaseline (1950-1999)

Used different climatemodels to develop 5“climate futures” Warm wet

Hot wet

Warm dry

Hot dry

Central

Evaluated different gridsin the MRCOG region,including Albuquerque

Mid Region Council of Governments Study – City ofAlbuquerque Grid

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Projections show

4X the annual daysover 100o F by 2040for Albuquerque.

Statisticallysignificant increasein length ofdroughts.

Mid Region Council of Governments Study – City ofAlbuquerque Grid

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High variability inprojections ofmonthly averageprecipitation forAlbuquerque.

Modest increasesand decreasesprojected formaximum 24 hourevents.

Related Study: Flood Risk Analysis Potential Impactsof Climate Change, Southern Sandoval Co AFCA

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Projections show

no change in rainfallintensity/floodingrisk through mid-century.

A 10 percentincrease in the 100year storm eventprojected by end ofcentury, resulting in25% increase inpeak flow.

Percent change in 100-year 24-hour precipitation for Upper Calabacillas Arroyo

Upper Rio Grande Impact Assessment, SandiaNational Lab and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, 2013

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On the web:http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/wcra/reports/urgia.htmlhttp://www.slideshare.net/fullscreen/atlanticcouncil/water-in-the-west-session-3-jesse-roach/2

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Big Picture Findings (compared to 1950-1999 baseline)Note: Study does not consider projected growth of region

Colorado and Rio Grande flows projected to decrease33% during 2050-2099

San Juan-Chama Project Flows

San Juan flows projected to decrease 25% by 2050-2099

San Juan Chama Project allocations projected to decrease15% (due to engineered storage)

San Juan Chama project allocation shortfalls

72% of allocation projected by 2050s

62% of allocation projected by 2099

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Big Picture FindingsNote: Study does not consider projected growth of region

Already problems using allocation due to drought

Water shortages

Wildfires and ash ladened water

Hydropower- Projected decrease of 50% by 2099

Water quality – concentrations of sediment,nutrients, and salt may increase

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Community vulnerability & hazards in Albuquerqueassociated with these climate change projections

Projections about how climatechange may affectAlbuquerque’s water resources

Scoping communityvulnerability & hazards

Questions and discussion

Regional and Localized Vulnarability & Hazards forAlbuquerque Region

Regional – Community Wide

Insufficient water supplies for drinking, industry, farming

Heat-related illnesses and deaths

Disruptions to energy supplies (and chain of effects on waterand wastewater utilities)

Water quality and habitat impacts

Localized

Increased wildfires (and related property and health impacts)

Continued flooding (with no or slight increase in 50 year andgreater storm events) through mid century

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Four Vulnerability/Opportunity Areas

Glenrio

South Broadway

Mid-Valley

Ventana Dam Area

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We will focus onportions of thesedistricts in ourcharrette.

Example On-Line Tools to Conduct LocalVulnerability & Hazards Assessments

Climate Change Resilience Evaluation andAwareness Tool CREAT, USEPA

New on-line tool to assist drinking water andwastewater utility owners in understanding climatechange threats and risks to their utilities

http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/creat.cfm

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Example On-Line Tools to Conduct LocalVulnerability & Hazards Assessments

Climate Registry for the Assessment ofVulnerability, CRAVe, USGS

Access to information about climate changevulnerability assessments, leveraging work frommultiple agencies.

https://nccwsc.usgs.gov/crave/

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Example On-Line Tools to Conduct LocalVulnerability & Hazards Assessments

Virtual Framework and Vulnerability AssessmentScoring Tool (VAST)

Spreadsheet based guide to walk agencies throughthe vulnerability assessment process for roads andhighways.

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/ongoing_and_current_research/gulf_coast_study/phase2_task6/page04.cfm

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Questions and Discussion