Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
© 2013
75 Cours Emile Zola, F-69100 Villeurbanne - Lyon, France
Tel: +33 472 83 01 80 - Fax: +33 472 83 01 83
Web: http://www.yole.fr
What are the business and technology
trends that are impacting the MEMS
business for
the next 5 years?
JC ELOY, [email protected]
© 2013• 2
• Yole Developpement is a market, technology and strategy consultingcompany, founded in 1998. We operate in the following areas:
• Our expertise is based on research done by our in-house analysts,conducting open-ended interviews with most industry players.
• 30 full time analysts with technical and marketing degrees
• Primary research including over 3,500 interviews per year
MEMS & image sensors
Photovoltaic
Advanced Packaging
Microfluidic
& Med Tech
Power Electronics
HB LED, LED & LD Equipment and materials
YOLE presentation
© 2013• 3
• Custom Analysis:
– Largest part of Yole activities
– Covered by NDA agreement
– A few days to several months of work, depending on objectives
• Published Reports:
– An average of 40 reports published every year
– Available individually or through Annual Subscription Program
– Market and technology reports, Patent analysis, ReverseEngineering/Costing reports and Reverse Costing tools
• i-Micronews Media:
– Newsletter and webcasts on 3D, MEMS, Power electronics, LED andimaging
– 45 000+ subscribers…
• Yole Finance services:
– M&A (buying and selling)
– Due diligence
– Fund-raising services
4 business models
© 2013• 4
Last YOLE reports on MEMS
• Sensors and electronics technologies for the IoT
• Mems for mobile and consumer applications
• Permanent Wafer Bonding for Semiconductor: Application Trends &
Technology
• MEMS Microphone: Market, Applications and Business Trends 2014
• Inertial MEMS Manufacturing Trends 2014 - Volumes 1 & 2
• Market & Technology Trends in Materials & Equipment for Printed &
Flexible Electronics
• Status of the CMOS Image Sensor Industry
• Sensors for Home Healthcare Applications: Market & Technology Analysis
• Thin Film PZT for Semiconductor Application Trends & Technology Update
• 6 and 9 axis sensors: consumer inertial combos report
© 2013• 5
Yole Inc.
Yole Paris
Yole Japan
30% of our business
is in North America
30% of our business
is in Asia
40% of our business is
in EU Countries
Yole KoreaYole Développement Lyon HQ
S+C
Global activities
© 2013• 6
Financial investors
& industry advocates
R&D Organizations
Suppliers (equipment,
wafers, materials)
Component
manufacturers
Integrators, system
suppliers & end users
Some of our customers
© 2013• 7
FEW TRENDS ARE IMPACTING THE MEMS
BUSINESS…
© 2013• 8
Business is growing everywhere…
2012-2019 MEMS Markets (US$M)
2013-1
9 C
AG
R
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Others $244M $326M $324M $385M $437M $519M $644M $798M
Oscillators $29M $31M $38M $51M $68M $129M $247M $393M
RF MEMS $474M $586M $669M $767M $872M $1 026M $1 186M $1 391M
Microdispensers (microfluidics) $174M $201M $234M $272M $316M $368M $428M $498M
Microfluidics for IVD $787M $949M $1 165M $1 415M $1 733M $2 132M $2 643M $3 302M
Microfluidics for research $412M $557M $751M $1 014M $1 369M $1 849M $2 588M $3 334M
Other optical MEMS $189M $211M $239M $262M $290M $322M $359M $372M
Projection systems $855M $775M $866M $933M $1 172M $1 395M $1 688M $2 062M
Micro displays $4M $4M $0M $3M $10M $16M $30M $57M
PIR & thermopiles $52M $60M $70M $83M $97M $118M $151M $211M
Microbolometers $228M $244M $271M $309M $350M $388M $427M $496M
Inertial combos $269M $552M $888M $1 278M $1 673M $1 896M $2 199M $2 478M
Digital compass $363M $428M $456M $439M $436M $367M $336M $313M
Gyroscopes $1 347M $1 307M $1 328M $1 262M $1 213M $1 173M $1 079M $1 040M
Accelerometers $1 587M $1 547M $1 566M $1 523M $1 480M $1 397M $1 309M $1 253M
Microphones $589M $785M $929M $1 050M $1 174M $1 318M $1 483M $1 651M
Pressure sensors $1 871M $2 003M $2 095M $2 223M $2 396M $2 592M $2 819M $3 124M
InkJet heads $1 189M $1 158M $1 123M $1 143M $1 174M $1 199M $1 218M $1 238M
$0M
$5 000M
$10 000M
$15 000M
$20 000M
$25 000M
$30 000M
US$
M r
eve
nu
es
MEMS market forecast 2012-2019 value (in M$)April 2014
TOTAL $10 662M $11 723M $13 012M $14 413M $16 260M $18 203M $20 833M $24 011M
16,1%
52,7%
15,5%
16,3%
23,1%
34,8%
10,0%
17,7%
57,8%
23,5%
12,5%
28,4%
-5,1%
-3,7%
-3,4%
13,2%
7,7%
1,1%
© 2013• 9
Business is growing everywhere…
2012-2019 MEMS Markets (Munits)
2013-1
9 C
AG
R
15,8%
65,6%
20,2%
18,7%
34,4%
42,3%
18,7%
106,7%
64,8%
59,5%
24,7%
41,3%
5,6%
8,4%
-3,6%
18,3%
22,6%
-3,2%
TOTAL 7 657 9 818 11 893 13 953 16 273 18 685 21 972 26 204
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Others (microstructures, micro tips, flow meter …) 36 96 42 47 60 84 134 231
Oscillators 93 100 135 203 304 608 1 216 2 068
RF MEMS 977 1 192 1 424 1 671 1 935 2 353 2 884 3 596
Microdispensers (microfluidics) 29 34 41 48 57 68 80 96
Microfluidics for IVD 110 145 193 262 349 488 646 856
Microfluidics for Research 1 2 2 3 5 6 10 14
Other optical MEMS 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Projection systems 6 7 10 25 70 175 354 527
Micro displays 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
PIR & Thermopiles 21 25 36 52 70 129 222 406
Microbolometers 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2
Inertial combos 162 460 884 1 428 2 010 2 465 3 060 3 666
Digital Compass 805 1 109 1 396 1 568 1 729 1 625 1 573 1 538
Gyroscopes 628 803 934 988 1 052 1 141 1 216 1 299
Accelerometers 1 949 2 139 2 306 2 271 2 244 2 040 1 824 1 718
Microphones 1 678 2 414 3 060 3 704 4 399 5 149 5 891 6 602
Pressure Sensors 834 977 1 124 1 384 1 700 2 071 2 587 3 315
InkJet Heads 324 312 302 292 283 274 266 258
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
Ship
me
nts
(M
un
its)
MEMS market forecast shipments (in Munits) April 2014
© 2013• 10
76%
62%
34%
32%
20%
15%
12%
12%
12%
9%
8%
6%
6%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-3%
-3%
-4%
-8%
-11%
-11%
-11%
-18%
-79%
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
GOERTEK
AAC
INVENSENSE
CANON
BOSCH SENSORTEC
AVAGO TECHNOLOGIES
TRIQUINT
SONY
OMRON
INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES
KNOWLES ELECTRONICS
FREESCALE SEMICONDUCTOR
MEASUREMENT SPECIALTIES INC.
KIONIX
SENSATA
ULIS
GE SENSING
FLIR SYSTEMS
MURATA
HONEYWELL
UTC Aerospace Systems
STMICROELECTRONICS
DENSO
HEWLETT PACKARD
TEXAS INSTRUMENTS
PANASONIC
ALPS ELECTRIC
AKM
ANALOG DEVICES
SEIKO EPSON
RELATIVE DIFFERENCE IN MEMS SALES 2013/2012
Business is growing everywhere…
Growth of Mems companies 2012-2013
© 2013• 11
New devices are coming…
Emerging MEMS Market in Units
Yole Développement September 2013
Total 10.97 21.81 44.83 106.35 260.63 511.65 934.62
© 2013• 12
BUT…
© 2013• 13
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
ASP analog 0,32 0,305 0,285 0,26 0,24 0,225 0,215 0,21 0,205 0,2
ASP digital 0,46 0,447 0,425 0,4 0,37 0,345 0,325 0,31 0,301 0,29
0,15
0,19
0,23
0,27
0,31
0,35
0,39
0,43
0,47
0,51
$
Global ASP Evolution of MEMS Microphone2010-2019
Yole Développement © February 2014
Decrease of price in CE…
ASP of MEMS microphones
© 2013• 14
Component size is still decreasingTypical package footprint for sensors used in mobile devices
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
4x4
mm²
3x3
mm²
2x2
mm²
1.6x
1.61.4x
1.4
2.2x2.2
mm²
Accelerometers
Magnetometers
Gyroscopes
6-axis e-compass
6-axis IMU
9-axis
3x3
mm²
4x4
mm²
3x3
mm²
2x2
mm²
3x3
mm²
4x4
mm²
1.6x
1.6?
3x3
mm²
4x4
mm²
2.5x2.5
mm²
3x5
mm²
2x2
mm²
2x2
mm²
2.4x2.4
mm²
© 2013• 15
Things are different depending on what you are
looking at…
Packaged microphone market share in 2013
61%
13%
8%
7%
5%
2%
1%1%1%
1%
Global MEMS Microphone Market Share in Value ($M)2013
Knowles
AAC
Goertek
STMicroelectronics
Gettop
Bosch/Akustica
ADI (now InvenSense)
BSE
Wolfson
NeoMEMS
MEMSensing
Epcos
Others
Yole Développement © February 2014
$785M
© 2013• 16
Things are different depending on what you are
looking at…
Microphone die market share in 2013
61%
20%
7%
3%
2%1%
6%
Global MEMS Die Manufacturing Market Share 2013 (in volume)
Sony
Infineon
Omron
AAC
Bosch
TSMC
Others
Yole Développement © February 2014
2.4Bunits
© 2013• 17
Successful Companies are Still Large Leaders in
Distinct MEMS CategoriesTop 4 players have >50% of market shares in 5 different MEMS markets
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
20
13
Sal
es
($M
)
Top MEMS Suppliers in the Mobile Phone and Tablet Market- 2013 Revenue ($M) - Breakdown by Product Type -
MEMS accelerometers MEMS Gyroscopes Magnetometers 6-axis IMU 6-axis E-Compass
BAW filters & Duplexers Silicon Microphones Pressure sensors Others
Yole développement © May 2014
© 2013• 18
Evolution 2009-2013: Maintaining growth in
consumer electronic applications is a challenge…
© 2013• 19
Products
Pressure
sensors
Accelerometers
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2012
Lab R&D
Gyroscopes
Toward a commercial
productCost reduction Ramp up
15 years
8 years
8 years6 years
8 years9 years
5 years
15 years6 years
19 years
25 years
36 years from R&D to commercial ramp-up
But commercial ramp-up is still a big
issue…
Oscillators 6 years 5 years5 years
16 years
Autofocus 4 years6 years7 years
17 years
Microphones 6 years6 years6 years
18 years
… but the « cost reduction » barrier still there!
© 2013• 20
• We note the difficulty to reach the commercialization phase: we have not seen new
types of MEMS entering production for years!
– Delayed production for Auto-Focus, Micro speakers…
• A major change in the industry linked to the importance of mobile applications can
explain that:
But commercial ramp-up is still a big issue…
The « Nessie curve » law
Time
Today: “Nessie”- like
commercialization curve
Time
In the past: « stairs »-
shaped commercialization
curve
© 2013• 21
So…
• The automotive, industrial and medical applications of MEMS are
also driving the growth of the MEMS business:
– With healthier business models
– Ability to innovate more easily and take risks step by step
– And also taking benefit of the developments of the Ce applications in
term of packaging ans integration.
© 2013 • 22BioMEMS January 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
MEMS FOR MEDICAL APPLICATIONS
© 2013 • 23BioMEMS January 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Life sciences
Markets Considered in the Medical MEMS business
Pharmaceutical
R&D spending ~17% of
annual turnover source PhRma
Medical DevicesIn Vitro Diagnostics
Environment
control
• water
monitoring,
• homeland
security,…
Agrofood
control
. process
control,
traceability,
…
Medical equipment
development and
commercialization
$267B 2011
CAGR 11: 6%
BioMEMS
contribution: $521MSource Yole estimation
R&D spending around
8% of sales source Eucomed
Biological test
development and
commercialization
$65.3B 2011
CAGR 11: ~8%
BioMEMS contribution:
$674MSource Yole estimation
Drug discovery and
commercialization
$855B 2011
CAGR 11: 5%Source IMS Health, VFA
BioMEMS contribution:
$317M
Medical Home Care
Prescribed Medical
devices and services
for home care
$69B 2011
CAGR 11: 9%
BioMEMS
contribution: $52MSource Yole estimation
Wide range of products.
Excludes consumer health
and sport products
© 2013 • 24BioMEMS January 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Devices versus Applications
Accelero
metersGyroscopes Flow meters Pressure sensors
Temperature
sensors
Bio-Chemical
sensors
Market Applications Expected System Connectivity
Ventilator & Anesthesia Wired X X
Infusion devices Wired X
Respiratory Monitoring Wired X X X
Oxygen concentrator Wired X X
Surgery (robots, endoscopes...) Wired X X
Camera Pills Autonomous, Wireless
Capnograph (CO2 meter) Wired X X
Cardiac monitoring, pacemakers Autonomous, Wireless X X
Hearing Aids Autonomous, Wireless
Blood monitoring Autonomous, Wireless X X X
Kidney Dialysis control Autonomous, Wireless X X X
Dispensing, blending Autonomous, Wireless
Point of care devices, Lab on chip Autonomous, Wireless X
Pharmaceutical research Wired X
analytical devices (MS, GC, HPLC) Wired X
Comfort Wireless X
Safety Wireless X X
Patient monitoring Autonomous, Wireless X X X
Activity monitoring Autonomous, Wireless X X X
Reusable
Single use, disposable
Disposable or reusable, depending on product
MEMS & Sensors
Medical
Diagnostic
Home care
© 2013 • 25BioMEMS January 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Devices versus Applications
RFID Strain sensors Image sensors Microphones µpumps Energy Harvesting
Market Applications Expected System Connectivity
Ventilator & Anesthesia Wired X
Infusion devices Wired X
Respiratory Monitoring Wired X
Oxygen concentrator Wired X
Surgery (robots, endoscopes...) Wired X X X
Camera Pills Autonomous, Wireless X X
Capnograph (CO2 meter) Wired
Cardiac monitoring, pacemakers Autonomous, Wireless X
Hearing Aids Autonomous, Wireless X
Blood monitoring Autonomous, Wireless X
Kidney Dialysis control Autonomous, Wireless X X
Dispensing, blending Autonomous, Wireless X
Point of care devices, Lab on chip Autonomous, Wireless X
Pharmaceutical research Wired
analytical devices (MS, GC, HPLC) Wired
Comfort Wireless
Safety Wireless X X
Patient monitoring Autonomous, Wireless X X X
Activity monitoring Autonomous, Wireless X X X X X
Reusable
Single use, disposable
Disposable or reusable, depending on product
MEMS & Sensors
Medical
Diagnostic
Home care
© 2013 • 26BioMEMS January 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Microsystem Devices Market Distribution2011-2018 market in $M
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Medical devices 521 602 672 759 861 974 1113 1270
Home Care 52 59 72 85 97 112 124 136
In Vitro Diagnostics 674 788 949 1165 1415 1733 2132 2643
Pharmaceutical and biological Research 317 412 557 751 1014 1369 1849 2588
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Bio
MEM
S an
d M
icro
syst
ems
Mar
ket
per
Ap
plic
atio
n in
$M
BioMEMS and Microsystems Market per Application in $M
CAGR2013-2018=24%
© 2013 • 27BioMEMS January 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Microsystem Devices for Healthcare Applications2011 & 2018 market in M$
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
BioMEMS and Microsystems for Life Science Market in $MRF ID
Strain sensors
Energy Harvesting
IR-Temperature sensors for medical Diagnostics
Flow meter for medical and Diagnostics
Microneedles
Micropumps
Inhalers
Industrial and environmental
Analytical devices
Pharmaceutical and life science research
Point of Care diagnostics
Clinical & veterinary diagnostics
X-Ray imaging
Camera pills
Endoscopes
HMDs
Microspectrometers
Human motion analysis
Accelerometer for pacemaker
Hearing Aids
Kidney Dialysis
Respiratory equipment
Ventilator & Anesthesia
Blood monitoring equipment
Blood monitoring disposable
CAGR2013-2018=24%
© 2013 • 28BioMEMS January 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Benchtop•Anesthesia
• ventilators
•medical monitoring
•...
Portable•IVD
•Point of care
•Infusion and drug delivery
•Respiratory monitoring
•...
Wearable•Glucose monitoring
•Kidney dialysis
•Theranostics
•Activity monitoring
•Patient monitoring
•Smart pills
•...
Implantable•Pacemakers
•Neurostimulators
•ECG
•Coclear implants
•...
Global Miniaturization roadmapM
inia
turi
za
tio
n a
nd
in
teg
rati
on
le
ve
l
Time
Mobility
Medical requirementsOnly for chronic diseases
and for medical safety reasons
Ease of use
Near Patient
Hospital and
Lab Care
Home Care
Point of care
Anywhere Care
Quality
of Life
© 2013 • 29BioMEMS January 2013 Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
Summary and Conclusions (1/3)EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Microsystem technologies are changing the Healthcare industry.New in-vitro diagnostic systems, new therapy strategies, geneticdisease treatment, targeted and intelligent drug delivery,artificial pancreas, drug discovery processes… are healthcareimprovements promised to future generations.
• One of the main trends for the future is to increase theintegration of the devices. Indeed, the size is often a criticalparameter for the medical devices.
• For the future, we don’t forecast the apparition of numerousnew type of devices. Nevertheless, we foresee new productsbased on a combination of existing sensors and innovativesoftware.
© 2013• 30
MEMS IN AUTOMOTIVE
© 2013• 31
MEMS in Automotive
Infineon source
© 2013• 32
MEMS for AutomotiveOverview
MEMS Sensors
Pressure sensorsUncooled IR detectors
Inertial devices Microphones
Micro-mirors &
pico projectors
TPMS
Side airbags,
Seat occupancy
HVAC
Particle filter
Active Safety
Night vision
Head-up
displays
Vision enhancement system (Source: Bosch)
ABSESP
© 2013• 33
MEMS for Automotive 2012-2018 ($M)
• MEMS for auto will grow from $2.6B in 2012 to $3.6B in 2018 with a
5% CAGR.
$0
$500
$1 000
$1 500
$2 000
$2 500
$3 000
$3 500
$4 000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MEMS for Auto ($M)
Micro bolometers
Optical MEMS
IMUs
Magnetometers
Gyros
Acceleros
Microphones
Pressure
Accelero 1%CAGR
IMUs 35% CAGR
Gyro -7% CAGR
© 2013• 34
Automotive FIR Thermal CamerasMarket forecast in $ and units
• CAGR 2012-2017: + 13.1% in $ and + 33.8% in units.
2013
49M$
2017
82M$
© 2013• 35
Automotive53.8%
Industrial9.9%
Consumer27.4%
Medical6.3%
High-end2.6%
2018 Pressure sensor marketValue breakdown by application
Yole Développement @ January 2013
MEMS pressure sensor applicationsMarket breakdown by applications
• MEMS pressure sensors market is dominated by automotive applications today.
– Industrial, Medical applications are following.
• Yole estimates a huge growth of consumer applications in the coming years. By
2018, this segment of the industry will be more than 27% of the total market. But
still automotive will be 54%
Automotive69.1%
Industrial13.7%
Consumer4.1%
Medical9.6%
High-end3.5%
2012 Pressure sensor marketValue breakdown by application
Yole Développement @ January 2013
Total Market $1.5BTotal Market $2.6B
© 2013• 36
Pressure Sensor for Automotive ApplicationsKey applications
• Air Intake Sensors for Engine Controls (MAP/BAP/Boost)
• TPMS
• HVAC
Higher Volume
Applications
(tens of millions of units)
• Fuel Common Rail (100% of Diesel Engines, Also needed for Gasoline Direct Injection)
• Oil Pressure, Brake, Suspension, Steering
• Side Airbags
• Particulate
• Mass Air Flow Sensors
• Seat occupancy
• Fuel Vapor (saturated)
Other
Applications
• TPMS sensors over 15% CAGR in Sensor Demand
• Most of others from 5% to 10% CAGR in Sensor Demand
Application Market
Dynamics
© 2013• 37
Inertial MEMS in AutomotiveStructure of passenger vehicles with current integration of inertial sensors
BMW
Airbag ECU
ABS /
Brake ECU
TPMS
module
TPMS
module
Standalone
peripheral
module
Standalone
peripheral
module
Standalone
sensor GPS
• Front crash sensor
• Rollover sensors
• ESC accelerometer
• ESC gyro (possibly)
Standalone peripheral module
• Satellite crash sensors
• Motion detection sensor
Standalone sensor
• ESC gyro (possibly)
• Navigation gyroscope
• ESC unit (processing)
• ESC gyroscope (possibly)
• ESC accelerometer
(possibly)
© 2013• 38
Price is still dropping quarter after quarter… Strong pressure also in automotive…
• ESC market is growing, driven by regulations
• A big pressure on prices is seen on the market
• ESC combos are successful since their launch in 2010
– They provide significant cost savings compared to discrete sensors
$,0.0
$2,0.0
$4,0.0
$6,0.0
$8,0.0
$10,0.0
$12,0.0
$14,0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
ASP
($
)
Mar
ket
(M U
nit
s)
2008 - 2018 ESC Accelerometers, Gyroscopes and Combos
Munits Discrete Accel & Gyro Munits Combos Accel & Gyro ASP accel (US$)
ASP gyro(US$) ASP combo (US$)
Yole développement © Oct 2013
© 2013• 39
So…
• MEMS industry is big and growing. Strong market pull observed for
sensors and actuators in cell phones, automotive, medical, industrial…
• Not limited to few devices. A new wave of MEMS is coming!
• Component and die size are still being optimized while combo approaches
become mainstream. And several disruptive technology approaches are
now in development to keep going in term of size and price decrease
• But the MEMS industry has not solved a critical issue: how to increase the
chance of new devices to enter the market?
– RF switch, autofocus… are example of devices still under development after
more than 10 years of effort
– How to help companies to go faster and safer on the market with new devices?
© 2013• 40
Please give me your business card in order to get an electronic copy
of my presentation.
For more information:
Thank You for your Attention!Q&A
www.yole.fr www.i-micronews.com
