What Are Our Prospects Are Thinking Right Now Michael Starke, Vp Of Research

What Our Prospects Are Thinking Right Now!

Michael J. StarkeVice President of ResearchV ce es de o esea c

April 7, 2009

Overview

30 days

h h ld300 households

9 different geographic markets9 different geographic markets

12 months

42 focus groups

22 different geographic markets

45 minutes45 minutes

Overview

• Methodology• Respondents• View of the EconomyView of the Economy• Financial Situation

R ti t Pl• Retirement Plans• Sense of the Future• Impact on Their Buying Behavior• Reaching Our ConsumerReaching Our Consumer

Methodology

• Telephone Survey (Second Annual)– Age 70+ with Incomes of $35 000 or moreAge 70+ with Incomes of $35,000 or more– Surveys conducted between March 5-21, 2009– 300 completed interviews (95% Conf +5 7%)300 completed interviews (95% Conf. +5.7%)– Sample drawn from the Mid-

Atlantic, Southeast, Southwest,West and Northwest Regions

– Survey completed by DiscoveryR h Li l NEResearch, Lincoln, NE

Characteristics of Respondents

39%

Percent of Respondents by Age

30%

35%

40%34%

39%

28%

20%

25%

30%24% 24%24%

2008

5%

10%

15%8%

7%

3%

0%

9%

0%

2009

0%

< 70 70‐74 75‐79 80‐84 85 > RTA

0% 0%

AgeAgeSOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum


50%

Percent of Respondents by Income

40%

45%

50%

40%

46%

25%

30%

35%30%

2008

10%

15%

20%

11%14%

9%

16%

9%

18% 2009

0%

5%

<$35,000 $35,000 ‐ $50,000 ‐ $100,000 ‐ $150,000> RTA

2%3%

2%

$49,999 $99,999 $149,999SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum


88%

Percent of Respondents by Tenure

70%

80%

90% 85% 88%

50%

60%

70%

2008

20%

30%

40%

12%7%

2009

0%

10%

Own a home Own a condominiumRent a house condominium or apartment

3%7% 5%

Own a home Own a condominiumRent a house, condominium or apartment

SOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum


Percent of Respondents by Home Value

30%

35%

40% 36%

15%

20%

25%19%

12%2009

5%

10%

15%

5%

9%12%

9%10%

0%<$150,000 $150,000 ‐

$299,999$300,000 ‐$399,999

$400,000 ‐$499,999

$500,000> DK RTA



60% 57%

Likely to Move

50%

60% 57%

30%

40%

25% 24%2008

10%

20%

5% 6%

12%8%

16%

2%7%

4% 3%

9%

3%

13%

4%

2009

0%

Not at all

2 3 4 5 6 Very Likely

DK

LikelySOURCE: Spectrum Telephone Survey, March 5-21, 2009, © 2009 Spectrum


Type of Housing if Moving

Retirement Community 84%74%

Condominium 10%

9%

8%

2009

Different House 3%

9%

9% 2008

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Don't Know 3%9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Current View of the Economy

Compare Economy to 24 Months Ago

Worse 83%96%

Same 16%4%

2009

2008

Better 1%1%

2008

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1%


Impact on Financial Situation

Change in Income Since 2008

S

Increased 6%

54%

12%

Decreased

Same

4%

84%

33% 2009

2008

RTA

DK

5%

0%

0%

1%2008

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

RTA 5%



Change in Home Value Since 2008

Increased 25%9%

D d

Same 37%

62%

22%

2009

2008

DK

Decreased

8%

30%

7%

2008

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%



Change in Portfolio Value Since 2008

S

Increased 7%

14%

2%

Decreased

Same

27%

55%

81% 2009

2008

RTA

DK

3%

8%

2%

1%2008

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

RTA 3%


Impact on Retirement Plans

Impact of Economy on Retirement Living Plans

Littl

None 43%

20%

36%

Somewhat

Little

22%

27%

29% 2009

2008

DK

Great

1%

6%

2%

13%2008

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

DK 1%



Change in Income/Assets on Retirement Living Plans

50%

60% 56%53%

30%

40%

2008

10%

20%

4%9%

13%

4% 2% 3%6%

2%6% 5% 7% 6% 4%

8% 9%

2%

2009

0%No

Impact2 3 4 5 6 Great

ImpactDK RTA



40%

Perception of Financial Security in a CCRC

30%

35%

40%

30%

20%

25%19%

23%

2008

5%

10%

15%

6%

12% 12%11%

2%5%

1%5%

8%6%

8%

%

7%

2%

2009

0%

5%

Least Secure

2 3 4 5 6 Most Secure

DK RTA

2% 1%1% 2%


Sense of the Future of Economy

• CBS/New York Times Poll (All Ages - February, 2009)– 8% think economy is getting better– 40% think it is staying the same– 51% think it is getting worse

– 66% think the recession will last 2 years or more


The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

50 0

60.0

70.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

Mar ‐08

Apr ‐08

May ‐08

Jun ‐08

Jul ‐08

Aug ‐08

Sep ‐08

Oct ‐08

Nov ‐08

Dec ‐08

Jan ‐09

Feb ‐09r

Mar ‐09p

Consumer Confidence Expectations Age 55+ Consumer Confidence

Consumer Conference Index, Expectations Index and Age 55+ Consumer Confidence Index are Registered Trademarks of The Conference Board, 2009


If Home Value Decreased When Do You Think Your Home Will Regain Lost Value

50%

60% 56%

30%

40%

50%

10%

20%

30%

4%

13% 13% 14%

0%2009 2010 2011 or Later Never RTA



When Do You Think Economy Will Start Improving?

35%

40%39%

20%

25%

30%22%

27%

5%

10%

15%

20%

4%8%

0%

5%

2009 2010 2011 or Later Never RTA


Impact on Buying Behavior

• In 2008 (+6 9%) of respondents reported that• In 2008 - ____ (+6.9%) of respondents reported that they were not going to move because of the economy



• In 2008 2 3% (+6 9%) of respondents reported that• In 2008 - 2.3% (+6.9%) of respondents reported that they were not going to move because of the economy



• In 2008 2 3% (+6 9%) of respondents reported that• In 2008 - 2.3% (+6.9%) of respondents reported that they were not going to move because of the economy

• In 2009 - 27.0% (+5.7%) ofrespondents reported that theyp p ywere not going to movebecause of the economy



• In 2008 - ____ (+6.9%) of respondents reported they were going to delay their move because of thewere going to delay their move because of the economy



• In 2008 - 6.3% (+6.9%) of respondents reported they were going to delay their move because of thewere going to delay their move because of the economy



• In 2008 - 6.3% (+6.9%) of respondents reported they were going to delay their move because of thewere going to delay their move because of the economy

• In 2009 - 47 3% (+5 7%) of respondents reported theyIn 2009 47.3% (+5.7%) of respondents reported they were going to delay their move because of the economy



UNCERTAINUNCERTAINSCAREDSCAREDFROZENFROZEN

Edvard Munch, The Scream, 1893

Reaching Our Consumer

Denial & Isolation&


Denial & IsolationCommunity&C y


Angerg


AngerListeningg g


BargainingBargaining


BargainingPeer SupportBargaining Peer Support


DepressionDepression


DepressionCommunityDepressionof Peers


Acceptancep

Q estions/CommentsQuestions/Comments

Documents

What Are Our Prospects Are Thinking Right Now Michael Starke, Vp Of Research