Upload
buikhue
View
219
Download
3
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
“The psychological core of understanding… consists of having a ‘working model’ of the phenomenon in your mind. If you understand inflation, a mathematical proof, the way a computer works or DNA… you have a mental representation that serves as a model” (Johnson-Laird 1983: 3)
What are Mental Models?
1
2
“Each of us uses models constantly. Every person in private life and in business instinctively uses models for decision making. The mental images in one’s head about one’s surroundings are models. …A mental image is a model. All decisions are taken on the basis of models.” (Forrester 1971: 55)
Alternative terms for Mental Models Cognitive maps Interpretative schemes Industry recipes Implicit theories Corporate theory Screens Routines Cognitive representations Frames / Strategic frames Mental templates Causal maps Belief structures
Dominant logic Mindscapes Worldview Managerial lenses Mental pictures Organizing frameworks Perception filters Analogies Knowledge structures Heuristics Decision biases Schema
Mental model of Disney’s Corporate Strategy
4
5
Military Mental model of Afghanistan Stability
6
7
Mental Model Components Performance
Decision Rules
Strategies
Perceived Causal Relationships
B
E
AD
C H
G
F
X Z
Y M
8
Men
tal M
odel
Our Mental Models... Enable us to make sense of complexity • Help us process information quickly and make decisions
under uncertainty • Often provide ‘good enough’ solutions
But are not accurate representations • They are incomplete and constantly evolving • Typically contain biases, errors, & contradictions
Two Studies of Mental Models
1. Mental models, decision rules, and performance heterogeneity
2. Dynamic decision making using the balance scorecard framework
10
Study 1: Examining effects of mental model accuracy on decision rules, strategies, and performance
11
Study 1: New Product Launch Sim
12
Study 1 Experimental Design
13
Delayed Testing Phase
3 simulation runs
Learning Phase
3 simulation runs
! Mental model measures
Immediate Testing Phase
3 simulation runs
! 15 weeks after immediate phase
Measures Performance: Cumulative Net Income Mental Model Accuracy – Perceived causal relationships – Mental simulations of small components (Graphical
integration) – Knowledge of core feedback structure (market diffusion
process)
14
Performance Relative to Benchmark
15
Mental Model Accuracy & Performance
More accurate mental models improve performance – Increasing MMA 1 std deviation ñ performance 22-40%
More accurate mental models of core feedback structure improve performance – 1 std deviation ñ performance 17-38%
Two types of mental model errors – Causal blind spots – Superstitious causal beliefs
16
Mental Models and Decision Rules More accurate mental models improve decision rules More accurate mental models of key principles
improve decision rules Participants’ decision rules stabilized rapidly – No differences in information weights after 4th trial block
17
Identified 4 Distinct Strategies on High Complexity Task
18
Significant differences in: • Mental model accuracy • Performance
Study 2: Examining effects of a strategy map with causal relationships and time delay information on mental model accuracy and performance
19
20 20
Study 2: Experimental Design
Case Briefing
Strategy Information Presentation Provideda
Round 2 Round 3 Round 1 Round 4
Post-Learning Round Questionnaireb
(and Short Break)
Post-Tenure Questionnairec
Study 2: Balanced Scorecard Sim
21
Treatments: Strategy Map
22
Study 2 Measures Performance: Cumulative Profit Mental Model Accuracy of causal relationships and
delays – Perceived causal relationships – Mental simulations of small components – Knowledge of core feedback structure
23
Cumulative Profit by Sim Round & Treatment
24
Strategy Map, Mental models, & Performance Both strategy map treatments ñ MMA of causal relationships
compared with control group
Strategy map with delays treatment ñ MMA of delays compared with strategy map without delays and control group
Both strategy map treatments ñ performance compared with control group
More accurate mental models of causal relationships and delays ñ performance
25
Take-aways about Mental Models We need them to make sense of the world around us! – They enable us to consider, decide and act quickly – More accurate mental models (perceived causal relationships, decision
rules, & strategies) increase performance
But at the same time... – They make us passive thinkers – Lead us to reject information that does not fit our current beliefs – Automatically fill in missing information for sensemaking – Usually unaware of the power of our mental models – And… mental model accuracy often quite low (averages ~ 50%)
We need to constantly enrich and update our mental models that guide strategic choices
How can we enrich our mental models? Using Systems Thinking & Modelling Tools to understand the
big picture can enrich our mental models – Causal diagrams (including simple strategy maps) – Simulation models to understand puzzling dynamics – Management Flight Simulators / Microworlds
A lot more research needed to test these (and other) types of interventions!
Thank you!
28