WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 1 High Resolution Modeling: Searching for the intersection between WGNE and the WWRP Mesoscale Working Group Operational systems

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WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010

High Resolution Modeling:

Searching for the intersection between WGNE andthe WWRP Mesoscale Working Group

•Operational systems in the US•NOAA/NCEP•AFWA•FNMOC

•Examples of real-time R&D systems

•Examples of R&D

•WGNE and WWRP MWG•Jeanette & Martin

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NAM• NEMS based NMMNEMS based NMM• Bgrid replaces Egrid• Parent remains at 12 km• Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr

– ~4 km CONUS nest– ~6 km Alaska nest– ~3 km HI & PR nests– ~~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET

possible

Rapid Refresh• WRF-based ARW• Use of GSI analysisUse of GSI analysis• Expanded 13 km Domain to include

Alaska• Hourly Updates• Experimental 3 km HRRR

RUC-13 CONUS domain

WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010

Original CONUS domain

Experimental 3 km HRRR

NCEP Mesoscale Modeling for CONUS: Planned Q3-Q4 FY11

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Ranked Probabilistic Skill Score

New SREF

N-1 version

Improved CONUS short range ensemble system

CONUS 2 meter temperature02 February – 10 August 2009

• Upgrade models: WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW and RSM

• Increase horizontal resolution:– ARW (45 km to 35 km)– NMM (40 km to 32 km)– RSM (40 km to 32 km)

• Total Membership = 21:– Adding 4 WRF – Eliminating 4 Eta

• For the 3 RSM members: replace Zhou cloud with Ferrier

• Use Global Ensemble Transform (ET) perturbations for the 10 WRF members

• Increase output frequency from every 3 hr to hourly for 1st 39hr (for SPC, AWC)

• Add/fix/unify variables in SREF output– radar (composite reflectivity + echo top) (for FAA)– unify PBL height diagnosis with critical Ri (aviation)– fix cloud base (aviation)– BUFR broken out into individual station time-series (SPC)

Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)

System Implemented 27 October 2009

model (dash)output (black solid)

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• Planned Changes:– Eliminate 6 Eta and 5 RSM members (11 members)– Add 7 NEMS-NMMB, 2 WRF-ARW and 2 WRF-NMM

members (11 members)– Update WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW model versions– Increase horizontal resolution from 32km to 22 km– Downscaled ET perturbations from global ensemble

• Expected Benefits:– Reduced maintenance costs without legacy models (Eta &

RSM)– Inclusion of state-of-the-art model – improved forecasts– More detailed and accurate forecasts especially for

precipitation– More consistent with global ensemble

Upgrades to the Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF)

Scheduled Q4FY11

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Mesoscale Modeling at NRLMesoscale Modeling at NRL• COAMPS®

Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Includes fully embedded aerosol model Includes coupled ocean and wave models / assimilation systems

• COAMPS-OS®

COAMPS-On Demand System

• COAMPS-LES COAMPS-Large Eddy Simulation capability

• COAMPS-TC®

COAMPS-Tropical Cyclone Model

• New Dynamical Core Nonhydrostatic Unified Model

• Ensembles JEFS: COAMPS-WRF Joint Ensemble Forecast System EnKF, EnKF-DART, ET systems

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Many Real-Time Modeling Efforts in the US

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transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations

Mobile, AL Ida Simulation w/ MODIS SSTsMobile, AL Ida Simulation w/ MODIS SSTs(9 to 27 hour Forecast PMSL and 10-m Winds)(9 to 27 hour Forecast PMSL and 10-m Winds)

• SOO Comments (Medlin)– Forecast very close on

track and intensity– Weakening intensity

toward landfall– Horizontal scale very

similar to observed– Precluded tornado threat

due to very stable air on northern periphery(not shown)

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NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed:NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed:The benefits of close collaboration with forecasters…The benefits of close collaboration with forecasters…

Tornadic Supercells

Isolated cells ahead of the main line

WRF-NMM Simulated 1 km Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity

“The WRF-NMM4 provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required.” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster

15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak

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SSEF mean SSEF Prob match QPE (obs)

4 km

SREF mean SREF Prob match NAM

32 km 12 km32 km

18–0Z accumulated precipitation: 24h(June 14, 2010 – OKC Flood Day)

Operational

R&D

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Comparisons of reflectivity GSS (ETS) scores of SSEF, HRRR and NAM for Spring 2010

CAPS SSEF Ensemble PM Mean

CAPS SSEF 1 km Model

CAPS SSEF ARW-CN (control

w/o radar assimilation

)

CAPS SSEF ARW-C0 (control

w/o radar assimilation

)

HRRR

NAM

With radar DA

Without radar DA

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•WRF ARW Based Study•0.5 km resolution

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Young-Hee Ryu, Jong-Jin Baik, and Sang-Hyun LeeSeoul National University

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Consideration of alternative spatial discretizations:

Priority Requirements:

Lat-Lon Icosahedral-triangles Icosahedral-hexagons Cubed Sphere Yin-Yang

• Efficient on existing and proposed supercomputer architectures • Scales well on massively parallel computers • Well suited for cloud (nonhydrostatic) to global scales• Capability for local grid refinement and regional domains• Conserves at least mass and scalar quantities

Problems with lat-lon coordinate for global models• Pole singularities require special filtering

• Polar filters do not scale well on massively parallel computers

• Highly anisotropic grid cells at high latitudes

Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)Joe Klemp, Bill Skamarock (NCAR), Todd Ringler (Los Alamos National Laboratory)

John Thuburn (University of Exeter, UK)

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• WGNE is concerned with all aspects of atmospheric modeling and analysis

• Working interface between operational forecasting and climate modeling communities

• WGNE theme: Atmospheric models, their evaluation and improvement

WGNE fosters the open exchange of information in a competitive NWP environment

Numerical Weather Prediction (CAS) and

Climate (WCRP)

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Service Delivery Capacity Building

ObservationsScientific

Assessments

Systematic Prediction

Documents

WGNE 26, 18-22 October 2010 1 High Resolution Modeling: Searching for the intersection between WGNE and the WWRP Mesoscale Working Group Operational systems