West Virginia Broadband Connectivity

Ahmed Saeed, Bao Nguyen, and Peter GardnerGeorge Mason University, Spring 2017

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Problem Statement and Scope● Rural areas lack high speed internet access● Students, businesses, citizens fall behind● How can we get broadband to the people in these West

Virginia counties?○ Logan and Wyoming○ Previously Mercer and McDowell as well

The goal of this project is to assess the coverage, understand the options, and the tradeoffs between the options, for providing broadband internet access to a key area in southern West Virginia.

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Components of Project● Stakeholder Analysis

○ Income, population○ Conditions○ Requirements

● Technological Analysis○ Current/expanded coverage (GIS)○ Functional issues with rural environment○ Available commercial alternatives○ General expansion costs

● Economic Analysis○ Visualization of relationships○ Sensitivity analysis○ Adoption rate

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Stakeholders

● Citizens of selected WV counties○ Logan, [McDowell, Mercer,] Wyoming

● Government○ Local, state, federal

● Local internet service providers○ Shentel, Frontier, AT&T, Verizon..

● Project sponsors○ Advancing Appalachia Initiative○ Dr. Michael Hieb○ Shepherd University

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Citizens of Southern WV Counties

Wyoming County Data

Counties Population

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Coverage Analysis● GIS (Geographic Information Systems) software

○ QGIS○ ArcGIS

● Goals○ Evaluate current coverage○ Identify gap areas○ Analysis of demographics

● Data○ Main source: GeoTel○ Shentel for wired coverage validation○ FCC and USGS for wireless coverage validation

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Cable 19528 64%Fiber 1629 5.3%

ADSL only 4393 14%No Coverage 5134 17% 10

AT&T 28121 92%Verizon 6696 22%

US Cellular 27 0.1%WVVA.NET 32 0.1%

No Coverage 2447 8.0% 11

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Wireless No Wireless

Cable/Fiber 18316 60% 2841 9.3%No Cable/Fiber 8953 29% 574 1.9%

● 89% wireless coverage● 69% cable/fiber coverage● 98% overall broadband

coverage● (ADSL not included)

Available Commercial Alternatives

● Cable/Fiber○ Fast and reliable○ Moderate cost for users○ Costly to expand

● Mobile Wireless○ “Great” coverage○ Dead Zones ○ Moderate cost for users

● (A)DSL○ Relies on phone lines○ Unreliable performance○ Low cost for users○ Not expanding

● Fixed Wireless○ Fast when available○ Requires LOS - Limited coverage

area○ Typically uses unlicensed

spectrum○ Costly to expand

● Satellite○ Wide availability○ Spotty performance○ High latency○ High cost for users

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Available Alternatives Summary

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Technology TypeConnection

Type Download Speeds Latency ISP Expansion CostConsumer

Monthly Cost Mbps/$

Dial-up Wired 56 kbps 150 ms Not expanding N/A 0.002

DSL Wired 5-25 Mbps 49 ms Not expanding $30 0.500

Satellite Wireless 3-6 Mbps 670 ms $554/installation $60 0.075

Fixed Wireless Wireless 10-25 Mbps 30 ms $25k-250k/tower $39 0.449

4G Mobile Wireless Wireless 3-25 Mbps 110 ms $200k/tower $71 0.197

Cable Wired 10-50 Mbps 32 ms $75k/mile $60 0.583

Fiber Wired 25-100 Mbps 24 ms $30k/mile $100 0.625Future Options:

Subsidized Low Orbit Satellite (OneWeb/SpaceX)

Wireless 5-50 Mbps 35 ms R&D — 2019+ <$20? 1.375

Balloon Wireless 4G LTE(Google Loon)

Wireless 5-22 Mbps 150 ms R&D — No Est. <$20? 0.550

Tiered Consumer Options

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Technology Speed Price Time Frame

Short-term Solution DSL/Satellite 5-10 Mbps

DSL - $30-80/monthSatellite -

$80-120/monthAvailable Now

Mid-term Solution Cable/Fiber 5-100 Mbps Cable - $50-80/month

Fiber - $100+/month 1-5 Years

Long-term Solution Subsidized Satellite Up to 50 Mbps Estimated

<$20/month 2-10 Years

Economic Analysis — Methodology

● Adoption Rate shifted focus ● Developed dynamic system model

○ Provides visualization of relationships○ Display effects of broadband adoption on income, population,

and ISP revenue ● Explanation of methodology and procedures

○ Software used○ Variables and links definitions ○ Usage with case studies

● Conduct sensitivity analysis○ Training/education and subsidies

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Key Variables and Relationships

● Broadband Adoption vs Income Benefits, Employment○ Every 10% of adoption ~ 1.2% increase in income○ Every 1% of adoption ~ 0.25% increase in employment

● Available Training vs Broadband Adoption○ With training, BB adoption rate increases by 1.2% annually

● Subsidy vs. Broadband Adoption○ Every $10 of subsidy increases adoption 3%

● Expansion of Infrastructure○ Cable — $75K/mi○ Fiber — $30K/mi○ Cellular — $225K/tower

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Economic Analysis — Wireless Model

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Sensitivity Analysis - Wireless expansion

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Sensitivity Analysis - Wired expansion

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Model and Results Verification● Compared model outputs for Income and Employment against regression lines of

known linear relationships○ Employment Increase = Adoption Rate(%) x 0.25%○ Income Increase = Adoption Rate(%) x 1.2%

● Reached out to domain experts for comment — Pending● Model results deviated within 4.9% of estimated for Income , <1% – 13% for Jobs

21*Data from Wired Model in Logan County Case Study

Northwest Logan County: Adequate wireless coverageMinimal wired coverage

Huff Creek Valley: No wireless coverageSome wired coverage

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One existing fiber line: Not currently used for domestic coverage here

Two new wires suggested: Could be either cable or fiber; some overlap

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Northwest Logan County — Analysis

As is Expanded

Cable/Fiber 0 0% 703 46%

ADSL-only 426 28% 209 14%

No connection 1088 72% 602 40%

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New wire length (km) 28.22Cost per km $19k

New wire cost $530kPredicted 10-year

revenue$1.6M

Predicted 10-year Adoption Rate

44%

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Huff Creek Valley — Analysis● Connectivity improvement

○ 404 currently without wireless coverage○ 314 (78%) covered by proposed new tower

● Expansion cost○ Tower construction costs $225k

● Revenue○ Model predicts revenue of $1.23M from new tower over the first ten years

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Wired/Wireless Economic Comparison

Wireless

Wired**

Major note: There are no major areas in the region that lack both wired AND wireless connectivity.We are utilizing a hypothetical area (12 km long) similar to Huff Creek Valley that has neither. 28

Wired Wireless

Population Connected 745 745

Expansion Cost $600k $225k

Adoption Rate 39% 27%

Income Gain(%) 25.0% 21.2%

Revenue $718k $1.23M*Using same demographic information for the region as initial values and controlled variables.

10 Year Results*

Adoption Rate

● Also called “take-up rate”● Does not correspond

directly to availability.

● While most addresses have broadband available, adoption rate remains low.

● District of Columbia - 76%

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Wyoming Logan Overall

Cable/Fiber Only 22% 0.16% 9.3%

Wireless Only 10% 43% 29%Wireless &

Cable/Fiber67% 55% 60%

Total Connected 98% 98% 98%Adoption rate 33% 14% 22%

Adoption Rate = Number of Users / Population with Access

Adoption rates from Shentel; the exact numbers will vary by ISP.

Adoption Rate Reasons

Source: Pew Research Nationwide Survey (2015)

Source: West Virginia Region 1 Broadband Study Survey (2013)

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● Not receiving speeds as advertised.

● Unreliable/Spotty ● High Cost● Service Unavailable

West Virginia Survey Results Summary

Conclusions/Recommendations● Broadband has the capability to improve the economic conditions of

rural WV● Actual Broadband availability needs improvement for some regions

○ Availability is not the primary driver of low adoption rate○ Continue Cable/Fiber Expansion for higher adoption rate○ Cell yields lower adoption rate but cheaper to implement

● Adoption rate of broadband needs to be addressed○ Training and education

■ Availability of subsidies○ Poor performance of advertised speeds and services○ Price point

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Future Work● Focus on adoption rate rather than the availability.● Investigate additional subsidies and programs● Continue researching other successful broadband initiatives ● Follow up on emerging technologies

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Acknowledgements

● George Mason University○ Dr. Michael Hieb○ Dr. Syed Abbas Zaidi○ Dr. Kathryn Laskey○ GIS Department

● Geotel Communications LLC○ Teri Phares○ Andrew Bates○ Eric Cabading

● Shenandoah Telecommunications (Shentel)○ Brith Osinkosky○ Christopher Kyle

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Questions?

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Appendix

Extra maps

Key resources or charts

Systems Dynamics model

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Wired/Wireless Comparison — ISP Revenue

*Using same geographic area to represent the same target population with same initial values

Wireless

Wired

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Cell Tower Initial Costs = $225KGraph TBD

Northwest Logan County — Analysis

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Economic Analysis — Wired Model

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Coverage Analysis — Wired● Data on coverage area from GeoTel, by

ISP and connection type:○ Coaxial cable○ Fiber○ Asymmetric digital subscriber

line (ADSL) ● Partial data on fiber/cable lines from

Shentel (comparison on right)○ 500-meter buffer around lines for

theoretical coverage area (green)○ Mostly lines up with GeoTel data

(brown and yellow)● 500-meter buffer around GeoTel

polygons for “plausible expansion” 39

Coverage Analysis — Wireless● Main data source: GeoTel

○ Coverage polygons by provider and spectrum (purple transparent polygons, right)

● Data validation:○ Elevation data from USGS○ Cell towers (yellow arrows) from FCC○ Overlapping viewsheds calculated (green)

● Very general correlation, but not usefully close● Complicating factors:

○ Multi-path ○ Vegetation

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Actual Cell Coverage - Wyoming County

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Relationship Link ResourcesRelationship between broadband adoption and income http://www.nardep.info/uploads/BroadbandWhitePaper.pdf

https://www.ericsson.com/res/thecompany/docs/corporate-responsibility/2013/impact-of-broadband-speed-on-household-income.pdf

Relationship between broadband adoption and Traininghttps://copp-ommunity.asu.edu/sites/default/files/REVChicagoSmartCommunitiesCHANGE042514-final%20%282%29.pdf

Relationship between broadband adoption and employment rateshttps://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06labor_crandall.pdf

Relationship between broadband adoption and Costhttps://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/22/does-lowering-the-price-of-broadband-increase-its-use/?_r=1

DC BB Adoption Rateshttps://connect.dc.gov/publication/dc-broadband-adoption-rates

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