Welfare, Diversification, Migration and Happiness

In-Depth Studies Based on the Vietnam Access to Resources

Household Survey (VARHS) 2012

INTRODUCTION

Professor Finn TarpDevelopment Economics Research Group (DERG)University of Copenhagen

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Background

• Vietnam has made substantial socio-economic progress. . .

• Challenges remain:

• Completing the on-going structural transformation of the economy

• Distributing the benefits of economic growth, especially to rural areas

• . . . Much remains to be learnt about the pattern of changes in wealth and welfare in a socialist-oriented market economy

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Why Survey Data?

• How household welfare changes over time matters and we want to understand its determinants

• Macroeconomic growth means that choice and welfare are indeed improving on average

• But: averages hide a lot of variation

• . . . and variation reveals a lot about the underlying reality of life in rural Vietnam

• This has important implications for which policies are feasible and which policies are desirable

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VARHS Over Time

• The Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) has been implemented since 2002, in 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012 (with financial support from Danidasince 2006)

• 2012 round included several updates

• Including new questions / sections about migration, climate change, and social welfare

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VARHS Provinces

• Red River Delta: Ha Tay

• North East: Lao Cai and PhuTho

• North West: Lai Chau and DienBien

• North Central Coast: Nghe An

• South Central Coast: QuangNam and Khanh Hoa

• Central Highlands: Dak Lak, Dak Nong, and Lam Dong

• Mekong River Delta: Long An

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• 2008: 3,223 households

• 2010: 3,202 households, of which 2,200 panel households

• 2012: 3,700 households surveyed

• Of which 2,741 are included in the 2012 report

• 2,197 panel households

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Sample Size Has Grown over Time

The 2012 Descriptive Report

• Presented in August at CIEM, available in print / online

• Produced collaboratively between partner institutions University of Copenhagen, ILSSA, CAP-IPSARD, and CIEM

• Reflects shared commitment to building research capacity, for example

• Research visit to the University of Copenhagen

• Applied economics course given in Ha Noi

• Continuous capacity building through

collaboration 8

Today’s Conference: In-Depth Studies

• Descriptive report is an extensive summary of the whole data set

• But many questions important to policy need in-depth analysis

• Especially to identify causality: averages and trends along cannot do this

• Difficult and time-consuming

• But essential input to policymaking

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Studies Based on 2012 Data

Reflecting collaboration between CIEM and the University of Copenhagen:

“Diversity Among Rapid Transformation: Welfare Dynamics in Rural Vietnam, 2006 to 2012”Presented by: Prof. Andy McKay, University of Sussex

“Non-farm Income, Diversification, and Income: Evidence from Rural Vietnam”Presented by: Luu Duc Khai, Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM)

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Reflecting collaboration between CAP/IPSARD and the University of Copenhagen:

"Social and Economic Determinants of Happiness in Rural Vietnam"Presented by: Prof. Finn Tarp, University of Copenhagen & UNU-WIDER

“Migration and the Impact of Remittances and Information on Sending Households: Evidence from Vietnam”Presented by: Prof. Carol Newman, Trinity College Dublin

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Broad Picture of Findings

• Unequal progress:

• Welfare Dynamics

• Happiness

• Changing nature of wealth creation

• Diversification

• Migration

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Thanks

• ILSSA for data collection report

• CIEM and CAP-IPSARD for joint research

• Danida and the Embassy of Denmark in Viet Nam for support

• Participants, commentators and numerous colleagues

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Thank you

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