Welcome to Weather-Related Decision- Making for General Aviation Pilots Flight 5 – Bethel, Alaska TO McGrath, Alaska 1Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter,

WEATHER-RELATED DECISION MAKING

Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter, Ph.D. 1

Welcome to Weather-Related Decision-Making for General Aviation

Pilots

Flight 5 – Bethel, Alaska TO McGrath, Alaska

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Complete a Flight - Instructions

• Now let’s put things together in a series of flights in which you need to be aware of changing weather conditions, and you need to consider all the factors related to an in-flight diversion.

• Each flight has been divided into a series of segments. At the end of each segment you will see a video clip of the weather conditions that you are currently experiencing. At the end of the video clip you will be asked whether you would like to continue the flight or divert to an alternate destination. If you decide to divert, a number of options will appear, and you will be asked to select an option and choose a new destination.

• Throughout the flight, you will have access to the material that is normally available during a cross-country flight under visual flight rules. You can access this material by clicking on the list. Before you begin the flight you have the opportunity to spend as much time as you like examining this material.

• Because of computer limitations, the Aeronautical Chart for each flight is not very detailed. If you wish to see a more detailed map, click on the “Map Link” and you will be taken to a web site in which you can zoom and scan in to see a very detailed view of the route.

Flight 5Bethal (AK) via Aniak (AK) to McGrath (AK)

TAKEOFF

Review flight detailsAeronautical Chart [Map Link]Airports

BethelAiniakMcGrathAnvikCrooked Creek

Area ForecastMeteorological ReportsWeather Charts

Radar SummarySurface Weather

Terminal Area ForecastFlight Plan

http://skyvector.com/?ll=61.8975173554651,-158.35042635528023&chart=73&zoom=4&plan=A.PA.PABE:A.PA.PANI:A.PA.PAMC


Review flight details• Aeronautical Chart [Map Link]• Airports

– Bethel– Ainiak– McGrath– Anvik– Crooked Creek

• Area Forecast• Meteorological Reports• Weather Charts

– Radar Summary– Surface Weather

• Terminal Area Forecast• Flight Plan

Make a decisionDivertContinue

You are currently: 20 nm NE of Bethel



























You are currently: 20 nm NE of Aniak






































Flight 5Aeronautical Chart

RETURN

Bethel

RETURN

Aniak

RETURN

McGrath RETURN

Crooked Creek

RETURN

Anvik

RETURN

Flight 5 – Weather Forecast

RETURN

Large 985 millibar low 80 nm north of Cold Bay Airport, will move to 60 nm north of King Salmon Airport

Cook Inlet and Susina Valley…Clouds/Weather…Occasional ceiling below 100 feet, visibility 15 statue miles in rain and mist. Mountains occasionally obscured in clouds and precipitation. Otherwise scattered 1500 feet, broken 5000 feet, broken 9000 feet, separated layers above, tops at flight level 350, light rain. Occasionally broken 1500 feet visibility 5 statue miles in rain. Surface wind East at 15 knots, with gusts to 45 knots.Outlook valid

Marginal VFR, ceilings, rain showers.Passes..Lake Clark, Merril, rainy and windy. Portage IFR ceiling, rain, mist, turbulence.

…Turbulence…Occasionally moderate turbulence below 8000 feet.Vicinity mountains Palmer Municipal Airport South…Isolated severe turbulence within 3000 feet above ground level, Birchwood Airport souty…Low level wind shear potential due to strong low winds.

…Ice and Freezing level…Light occasionally moderate rime icing in clouds from 9000 to 24,000 feet. Freezing level 9000 feet.

Copper River Basin…Clouds/Weather…Mountains occasionally obscured in clouds and precipitation. Otherwise, scattered 3000 feet, broken 7000 feet, broken 10000 feet, separated layers above, tops flight level 3000. Occasionally broken 3000 feet, visibility 5 statute miles, light rain. Vicinity Alaskan Range…Isolated ceiling below 1000 feet, visibility below 3 statute miles, rain, mist. Surface wind out of passes and through channeled terrain. Southeast at 20 knots, with gusts to 30 knots. Outlook Valid Vicinity Alaska Range VFR ceiling, rain showers.Pass…Tahneta…IFR ceiling, rain, mist, turbulence.…turbulence…Occasionally moderate turbulence below 8000.…Ice and Freezing level…Light occasionally moderate rime icing in clouds from 8000 to 20000 feet. Freezing level 8000 feet.

Central Gulf coast…Clouds/Weather…Occasionally ceilings below 1000 feet, visibility below 3 statute miles, light rain, mist. Otherwise, scattered 1500, broken 3000, broken 6000, separated layers above, tops FL300 light rain. Occasionally broken 1500 feet, visibility 3 statute miles in rain. Offshore and near the coast…Surface wind SE at 20 knots, with gusts to 30 knots. Outlook Valid VFR ceiling and rain showers.…Turbulence…Occasionally moderate turbulence below 5000.…Ice and Freezing level…Light, occasionally moderate rime icing in clouds from 9000 to 2300 feet. Freezing level 9000 feet.

Flight 5 – Meteorological Reports

RETURN

Flight 5 – Weather Charts – Cloud Coverage RETURN

Flight 5 – Weather Charts – Surface Weather RETURN

Flight 5 - TAF

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Flight 5 – Flight Plan

RETURN

Bethel to McGrath: Divert 1

Indicator Deterioration No Change Improvement

Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔

Bethel Aniak McGrath

Distance Very Good

Expected Weather

Very Good

Facilities Very Good

En-route Terrain Very Good

Expected weather conditions are anticipated on the basis of both the forecast and the prevailing conditions experienced during the flight.

Diversion Alternatives

At this stage of the flight it is useful to compare the conditions to those that were reported in the meteorological report. Since there has been no significant change in any of the indicators recorded in the meteorological report, the decision to divert is not necessarily warranted at this stage of the flight. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until the conditions improve.

Go back to where you diverted.

Continue

Weather Conditions at Diversion Point(Compared to Previous Stage)

Bethel to McGrath : Divert 2


Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔


Distance Good

Expected Weather Very Good


En-route Terrain

Very Good



While there does appear to have been some change in the weather conditions, the change appears to be isolated to a change in the cloud coloring and the onset of isolated rain showers. The cloud coloring appears to be darker than at the previous stage of the flight, and there is also an isolated shower evident. Since only two indicators have deteriorated at this stage, there is no specific requirement to consider a diversion. Nevertheless, should you feel uncomfortable in the conditions, you should consider your options and perhaps divert to an alternate airport until the conditions improve.


Continue




Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔


Distance Fair

Expected Weather Very Good


En-route Terrain

Very Good



At this stage of the flight there has been a deterioration in a number of the weather-related indicators. Visibility has reduced and the horizon is no longer clear, and there has been an increase in cloud density. Since three of the weather-related indicators have deteriorated, it is grounds to consider your position and whether or not you will divert.


Continue




Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔



There does not appear to be a deterioration in any of the weather-related indicators in comparison to the previous stage of the flight. However, it is important to note that the indicators have deteriorated in comparison to the initial stages of the flight. Given the conditions experienced during the preceding stage of the flight, a decision to divert should really have been made at this earlier stage.


Continue

Bethel Aniak Anvik Crooked Creek

Distance PoorVery Good Good Very Good

Expected Weather Very Good Fair Good Fair

Facilities Very Good Very Good Good Poor

En-route Terrain

Very Good Very Good Fair Good




Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance ✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔



There has been a deterioration in most of the weather-related indicators at this stage of the flight. Visibility has reduced and this has been associated with rising terrain and a reduction in terrain clearance. The density of the cloud has increased and the type of cloud has changed to low-level stratus. In these conditions, the decision to divert needs to be made quickly to avoid unintended visual flight into instrument meteorological conditions. Given the rapid deterioration in the conditions, the decision to divert ought to have been made at an earlier stage of the flight when the weather-related indicators initially deteriorated.


Continue


Distance Good Fair Very Good

Expected Weather Fair Good Fair

Facilities Very Good Good Poor

En-route Terrain Very Good Fair Good




Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance ✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔



There has been a further deterioration in the weather-related indicators at this stage of the flight. Visibility has reduced further and this is associated with steeply rising terrain. The density of the cloud has increased, although the cloud has remained low-level stratus. The aircraft is now being operated in instrument meteorological conditions. Given the deterioration in the conditions, the decision to divert ought to have been made at an earlier stage of the flight when the weather-related indicators initially deteriorated.


Continue


Distance Fair Poor Very Good


Facilities Good Good Poor

En-route Terrain Good Fair Good




Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔



While there has been an improvement in terrain clearance in comparison to the earlier stage of the flight, the aircraft is now caught in a mountain valley. None of the other weather-related indicators have improved and the aircraft is in a precarious situation. Given the weather conditions experienced during the preceding stages of the flight, the decision to divert should not have been left to this stage.


Continue


Distance Very Poor Poor Good





Bethel to McGrath: Divert 8


Cloud-base ✔

Visibility ✔

Cloud Coloring ✔

Cloud Density ✔

Terrain Clearance

✔

Rain Showers ✔

Cloud Type ✔

Horizon ✔



At this stage of the flight, there has been a further deterioration in three of the weather-related indicators. The flight is now being conducted in conditions that are well below that required for visual flight, and a diversion should have been initiated at the first stage at which at least three of the weather-related indicators had deteriorated.


Continue


Distance Very Poor Poor Fair







In-Flight Diversions - Summary

• This section of the program was designed to give you an opportunity to practice in-flight weather-related decisions. You should now be able to recognize the onset of deteriorating conditions using the weather indicators, and you should be aware of the way that you make decisions.

• Finally, you always need to avoid being pressured into continuing a flight. Good airmanship requires that you always give yourself alternatives.



Program Summary

• You should now be aware of the value of looking for indications that the weather is deteriorating and that you may need to divert, based on good weather-related decision making.

• We hope that you enjoyed this program, and that you will apply it’s principles in your future flights.

THE END

For more training programs and for self-evaluation exercises, please visit our web site at: www.avhf.com

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Welcome to Weather-Related Decision- Making for General Aviation Pilots Flight 5 – Bethel, Alaska TO McGrath, Alaska 1Copyright © 2012 David R. Hunter,