Welcome the third Scottish

Government Labour Market

Forum5th April 2012

Scotland’s Labour Market – Latest Developments

Alan WinetrobeEmployability, Skills and Lifelong Learning Analysis

5th April 2012

How has Scotland’s Economy fared compared to the UK?

Scottish & UK GVA Growth (Quarter-on-Quarter)

Employment rate (16-64), 2007-2012

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

762

00

7

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n a

ge

d 1

6-6

4

Scotland England Wales Northern Ireland UK

UK RecessionQ2' 08 to Q3 '09

Unemployment rate (16+), 2007-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

102

00

7

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

% o

f a

ll e

co

no

mic

ally

ac

tiv

e

Scotland England Wales Northern Ireland UK

UK RecessionQ2' 08 to Q3 '09

Unemployment rate by gender (16+),

Scotland & UK, 2007-2012

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1120

07

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e (%

)

Scotland - Males UK - Males Scotland - Females UK - Females

UK RecessionQ2' 08 to Q3 '09

Unemployment rate by age-group,

Scotland, 2008-2012

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2009

2010

2011

2012

% o

f eco

nom

ical

ly a

ctiv

e fo

r ag

e gr

oup

16-24 25 - 34 35 - 49 50 - 64

Long-term claimant count by age-group,

Scotland, 2008-2012

5

10

15

20

25

30

35Ja

n-0

8

May

-08

Sep

-08

Jan

-09

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan

-10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan

-12

Lo

ng

-ter

m c

laim

ant

cou

nt

leve

l (>

12 m

on

ths)

(th

ou

san

ds)

16-24 25-34 35-49 50+ All

Labour Market Flows, Scotland, Jul-Sep’11 to Oct-Dec’11

Employment

Unemployment

Inactivity

2,476

232

722

Emp to Unemp = 40

Emp to Inact = 40

Unemp to Emp = 52

Unemp to Inact = 26

Inact to Emp = 32

Inact to Unemp = 44

Trends in work patterns in Scotland

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Changeon year

Changeon 2 yr

Changeon 3 yr

Changeon year

Changeon 2 yr

Changeon 3 yr

Changeon year

Changeon 2 yr

Changeon 3 yr

Changeon year

Changeon 2 yr

Changeon 3 yr

Full-time workers Part-time workers Temporary workers Workers with secondjobs

Ch

ang

e in

lev

el (

tho

usa

nd

s)

All Males Females

Reasons for Part-time work, Scotland, 2000 to 2011

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12%

age

of

tho

se in

par

t-ti

me

wo

rk

Did not want full-time job

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12%ag

e o

f th

ose

in p

art-

tim

e w

ork

Could not find full-time job Other

Percentage point change in Claimant Count rate over one and two years by

Local Authority

-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

West LothianEilean Siar

East DunbartonshireSouth Lanarkshire

AngusEast Renfrewshire

HighlandAberdeenshire

MorayNorth AyrshireAberdeen City

Shetland IslandsStirling

SCOTLANDDumfries and Galloway

Edinburgh, City ofFife

Glasgow CityMidlothian

North LanarkshireScottish Borders

South AyrshireArgyll and Bute

FalkirkPerth and Kinross

East AyrshireDundee CityEast Lothian

ClackmannanshireOrkney Islands

RenfrewshireWest Dunbartonshire

Inverclyde

% point change on 2 years

% point change on year

Annual percentage point change in claimant count rate 16-24 yr olds by Local

Authority

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0O

rkne

y Is

land

s

Nor

th A

yrsh

ire

Inve

rcly

de

Wes

t Dun

bart

onsh

ire

Dum

frie

s &

Gal

low

ay

Cla

ckm

anna

nshi

re

Sou

th L

anar

kshi

re

Nor

th L

anar

kshi

re

Eile

an S

iar

Edi

nbur

gh, C

ity o

f

Dun

dee

City

Gla

sgow

City

Eas

t Dun

bart

onsh

ire

Eas

t Lot

hian

Sco

tland

Sco

ttish

Bor

ders

Eas

t Ayr

shire

Fife

Per

th &

Kin

ross

Mid

loth

ian

Wes

t Lot

hian

Eas

t Ren

frew

shire

Ren

frew

shire

Sou

th A

yrsh

ire

Arg

yll &

But

e

Mor

ay

Stir

ling

Ang

us

Abe

rdee

n C

ity

Fal

kirk

Abe

rdee

nshi

re

Hig

hlan

d

She

tland

Isla

nds

per

cen

tag

e p

oin

t ch

ang

e in

cla

iman

t co

un

t ra

te

Change in level of long-term claimant count over the year, by local

authority

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Inve

rcly

de

Eas

t Ayr

shire

Dun

dee

City

Sou

th A

yrsh

ire

Stir

ling

Wes

t Dun

bart

onsh

ire

Ork

ney

Isla

nds

Ang

us

Per

th a

nd K

inro

ss

Dum

frie

s an

d G

allo

way

Abe

rdee

n C

ity

Nor

th L

anar

kshi

re

Cla

ckm

anna

nshi

re

Fal

kirk

Nor

th A

yrsh

ire

Hig

hlan

d

Fife

Abe

rdee

nshi

re

Eas

t Lot

hian

Ren

frew

shire

Eile

an S

iar

Eas

t Dun

bart

onsh

ire

Arg

yll a

nd B

ute

SC

OT

LAN

D

Mor

ay

Sou

th L

anar

kshi

re

Edi

nbur

gh, C

ity o

f

Mid

loth

ian

Eas

t Ren

frew

shire

Sco

ttish

Bor

ders

Wes

t Lot

hian

Gla

sgow

City

She

tland

Isla

nds

Pro

po

rtio

nat

e ri

se i

n n

um

ber

on

cla

iman

t co

un

t fo

r m

ore

th

an 1

2 m

on

ths

Questions?

Percentage change in employee jobs by industry sector, Dec 2008 - Dec 2011,

Scotland and UK

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Ag

ricu

lture

&

fish

ing

En

erg

y &

wat

er

Ma

nufa

ctu

ring

Con

stru

ctio

n

Dis

trib

utio

n, h

otel

s &

re

sta

ura

nts

Tra

nsp

ort

&co

mm

uni

catio

ns

Ba

nki

ng,

finan

ce,

insu

ranc

e, e

tc

Pu

blic

ad

min

istr

atio

n,ed

uca

tion

Oth

er

Ser

vice

s

All

Ind

ustr

ies

% c

han

ge

in n

um

ber

of

job

s

Scotland United Kingdom