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Weekly Weather
Flash
J a n.17 –J a n.30
DEC.26 United States THIS WEEK:
Winter Arrives in the East; Cold Temperatures and Snow Expected for the East Coast.
Warmer, Stormy Pattern in the West.
A LOOK AHEAD: Greatest Opportunity for Seasonal Demand
Compared to Last Year Will be in the West as Stormy and Wet Weather Continues; Warmer
Temperatures Return to the East.
Europe THIS WEEK:
Late-Week Warming from the West; Eastern and Central Europe Remain Cold.
A LOOK AHEAD: Milder Air Spreads East, While a Northerly
Storm Arrives.
2
January 19, 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
Temperature vs. Last Year
Source: Planalytics
United States
Retail implications: A wintry blast hitting almost all areas east of the Rockies will help winter clearance sales and boost demand for heaters and firewood.
• Last year, this week was the warmest since 2010: Snowfall was the least for the week since 1989 and rainfall was near normal.
• Snow for the East Coast: A band of light snow will track from the Central Plains to the East Coast during the middle of the week, and there is the potential for a big winter storm along the East Coast over the coming weekend. The Eastern US should be on alert for the potential of heavy snow and high winds.
• Stormy West: The West will continue to see active storms. Several storm systems will come ashore, producing heavy rain and mountain snow. The heaviest precipitation will be focused in the northern areas.
Heaters +62% Firewood +33%
Retail Traffic -‐1.3%
Week of January 17–23
3
January 19, 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
Source: Planalytics
United States
Retail implications: As warmth returns, weather-‐driven demand for winter products will be hampered again.
• Last year, this week was warmer than normal: The US saw the least rain since 2001 and below-‐normal snowfall.
• Winter was here: The previous week’s wintry outbreak will become a distant memory for the East, while the West will see seasonal temperatures that will be colder than last year.
• Still wet in the West and Southeast: A parade of storms will continue to bring rain and mountain snow to the West. Storms will redevelop over the Southeast, bringing wet conditions. Higher elevations of the Appalachians may see a mix of wintry weather.
Winter Boots -‐4%
Temperature vs. Last Year
Week of January 24-30
4
January 19, 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
Source: Planalytics
Europe
Retail implications: Weather-‐driven demand will be higher earlier in the week, and strong sales of winter products are expected in much of Western Europe.
• Late-‐week warming from the West: Wintry temperatures will cover most of Europe at the beginning of the week. The westerly flow off the Atlantic will push warmer air ashore by the middle of the week, and the warmup will make it into Central and Eastern Europe by the weekend.
• A bit drier: Rain and snow will move out of the Southeast early in the week. Mainly dry weather will hold over the rest of the continent until Friday, when a front will push in from the West.
Temperature vs. Last Year
Boots (Austria) ↑ Heaters (Italy) ↑
Week of January 17–23
5
January 19, 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
Europe
Retail implications: Demand for cold-‐weather items will be split geographically, with cold in the East encouraging demand, and warmth in the West hampering it.
• Milder air spreads east: Warmer temperatures over Western Europe will break the grip of the wintry temperatures in the East, although the East will still be colder than last year.
• A more northerly storm track: The jet stream will shift back north, pushing bands of rain and snow from northwest to southeast across the continent. High pressure will keep the southwestern third of Europe dry.
Temperature vs. Last Year
Hot Drinks (Poland) ↑ Ice Cream (Turkey) ↓
Source: Planalytics
Week of January 24–30
6
January 19, 2016
DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2016 The Fung Group. All rights reserved.
Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director—Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: 852 6119 1779 China: 86 186 1420 3016 [email protected] Filippo Battaini [email protected] John Harmon, CFA [email protected] Aragorn Ho [email protected] John Mercer [email protected] Shoshana Pollack [email protected] Kiril Popov [email protected] Jing Wang [email protected] Steven Winnick [email protected] HONG KONG: 10th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: 852 2300 2470 NEW YORK: 1359 Broadway, 9th Floor New York, NY 10018 Tel: 646 839 7017 LONDON: 242-‐246 Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0)20 7616 8988 FBICGROUP.COM
