Weekly Monsoon Report June 27, 2016 - NCDEX · 2016-06-27 · Weekly Monsoon Report 5 Monday, 27 June 2016 Progress of Monsoon Monsoon has further advanced into some parts of north

Weekly Monsoon Report

June 27, 2016

Weekly Monsoon Report 2 Monday, 27 June 2016

Backdrop

Monsoon is gradually picking up momentum and has already covered most parts of the country. Sowing

activities are also likely to speed up from July in west and north regions of the country.

The kharif season crop are grown during this period. More than 50% of the gross cropped area is still

rain-fed and monsoon alone account for more than 75% of the total annual rains. Around 49% of total

food grain production and 67% of total oilseeds production of India is contributed by Kharif season

crops. Besides this production of commercial crops like cotton and sugarcane also depends largely up

on monsoon rains during Kharif season.

Agriculture contributes to 15.3 percent of India's Gross Value Added (GVA) and provides employment

to around half of its work force. The impact of monsoon rains on agricultural production and farm

incomes, etc., is substantial. A better monsoon can boost the growth rate of agriculture sector which in

turn can result in to overall growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Thus, the impact of

monsoons on agricultural growth would reflect into production, prices, incomes and GDP growth.

After witnessing two consecutive deficient monsoon rainfall years i.e. 2014 and 2015, India is expected

to receive bountiful rainfall during 2016. As per the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD rainfall over

the country as a whole for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to

be ABOVE NORMAL (>104% to 110% of long period average (LPA)). Private leading weather

forecasting company – Skymet has also predicted Monsoon at 109% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

The temporal and spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall is a key factor determining the agricultural

production. The timing of the rain during critical growth periods assumes great significance as the

excess or deficient rainfall may adversely impact the yield. Usually good rainfall is helpful during the

early stages of crop growth while in later stage of crop growth moderate levels of precipitation would

result in to good yield.

In India, the water storage in the reservoirs is at a very low level during current year. Central Water

Commission monitors 91 major reservoirs in the country which have total live capacity of 157.80 BCM

at Full Reservoir Level (FRL). Current live storage in these reservoirs as on 09th June, 2016 was 24.85

BCM as against 43.11 BCM on 09.06.2015 (last year) and 31.35 BCM of Normal (average storage of

the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 58% of the last year’s storage and 79% of the

normal storage. Better monsoon would result in to higher water storage in the reservoirs thus ensuring

more water availability for irrigation and other purposes for rest period of the year.

With this backdrop, this report primarily appraise the weekly and seasonal progress of monsoon across

states, identifies the excess/normal/deficient/scanty rainfall regions. It further evaluates the sowing

progress of the kharif season crops. In the last it attempts to analyse the impact of deviation of monsoon

rains on the kharif crop production through Vulnerability Matrix Analysis.


Classification of Seasonal Monsoon Rains (June – September) over the country as a Whole (based upon Long Run Average (LPA) Rainfall)

Category Rainfall Range (% of LPA)

Deficient < 90

Below Normal 90 - 96

Normal 96-104

Above Normal 104-110

Excess >110

The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

Classification of Rainfall based upon Actual and Normal Rainfall during a particular Period

Category % Departure of Actual rainfall from Normal Rainfall

No rains -100%

Scanty -60% to -99%

Deficient -20% to -59%

Normal +19% to -19%

Excess +20% or more

A: Actual Rain fall (mm), N: Normal Rainfall (mm), D Departure from Normal (mm)

There are 36 Meteorological Sub divisions in India

Seasons

Winter Season January –February

Pre-Monsoon Season March - May

Monsoon Season June - September

Post Monsoon Season October - December

Major crops grown during Kharif Season (i) Cereals : Paddy, Jowar, Bajra, Maize, Ragi;

(ii) Pulses : Tur (Arhar), Moong, Urad;

(iii) Oilseeds : Groundnut, Soybean, Sunflowerseed, Sesamum, Nigerseed, Castor seed

(iv) Cotton

(v) Guarseed

(vi) Sugarcane

(vii) Spices : Chilli and Turmeric


The monsoon forecast during last three years

Year Forecast Actual

(% of LPA) Issued in April Issued in June

2013 98 % of LPA with a model error of ±5 98 % of LPA ± 4 106

2014 95 % of LPA with a model error of ± 5 93 % of LPA ± 4 88

2015 93% of LPA with a model error of ± 5% 88% of LPA ±4% 86

2016 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5% 106% of LPA ±4% ?

The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.

Long Range Forecast Update for 2016 South West Monsoon Rainfall

Highlights

Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June to

September) is most likely to be ABOVE NORMAL (>104% to 110% of long period average

(LPA)).

Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the

long period average with a model error of ±4%.

Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 108% of LPA over North-West India, 113% of

LPA over Central India, 113% of LPA over South Peninsula and 94% of LPA over North-East

India all with a model error of ± 8 %.

The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 107% of its LPA during July and

104% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 %.

Source: IMD, Press Release, June 2, 2016


Progress of Monsoon

Monsoon has further advanced into some parts of north Arabian Sea, south Gujarat state, West Madhya

Pradesh and East Uttar Pradesh and some parts of East Rajasthan. Rainfall at many places very likely

over north-eastern states and at a few places over northwest India. Earlier, the Southwest Monsoon

has set in over Kerala, on 8th June 2016.

During this week ending 22 June, the southwest Monsoon further advanced into remaining parts of

Rayalaseema, North Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Sub-Himalayan West Bengal &

Sikkim, entire Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, East Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha,

Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar. It also

covered extreme southern parts of Gujarat state, most parts of West Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar

Pradesh, Uttarakhand & Himachal Pradesh, entire Jammu & Kashmir and some parts of West Uttar

Pradesh.

Advancement of Monsoon 2016

Source: IMD, New Delhi


Seasonal Rainfall Pattern in India (From June 01 to 22, 2016)



Weekly Rainfall Pattern in India (Week: June 16-22, 2016)



Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall in the Country during Monsoon Season (June 01-22, 2016)

The country received a cumulative seasonal rainfall of 85.50 mm against a normal of 103.80 mm since

June 01-22, 2016 (Departure: -18%) indicating a normal rainfall activity. Same time last year, the

departure in rainfall against normal was 24 % while this year it is around -18 %.

The weekly rainfall for the country as a whole during the week (June 16-22, 2016) was 7% lower than

normal rainfall. (All India Actual : 39.5 mm, Normal : 42.4 mm)

Data Source: IMD, New Delhi

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Actual 115.3 67.4 130.7 74.4 145.7 85.50

Normal 103.8 90.6 84.7 124.5 117.7 103.80

Departure 11% -26% 54% -40% 24% -18%

11%

-26%

54%

-40%

24%

-18%

-60%

-30%

0%

30%

60%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Dep

art

ure

(%

)

Rain

fall

(mm

)

Cumumative Rainfall Received during Monsoon Season (June 01-22, 2016)

Actual Normal Departure


Meteorological Sub-division wise Distribution of Rainfall

A: Seasonal rainfall

Seasonal rainfall was excess/normal in 23 and deficient/scanty in 13 out of the 36 meteorological

sub-division during the period under review. As compared to last year, the number of

deficient/scanty divisions are much higher.


B: Weekly rainfall

Weekly rainfall was excess/normal in 19 and deficient/scanty in 17 out of the 36 meteorological

sub-division. As compared to last year, the number of deficient/scanty divisions is much higher.


2011 2012 2013 2013 2015 2016

Excess/Normal 26 12 32 7 29 23

Deficient/Scanty 10 24 4 29 7 13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

No.

of M

et.

Su

b. D

ivis

ion

s

Number of Meteorological Sub-divisions with Excess/Normal and Deficit/scanty ranifall

(June 01-22, 2016)

Excess/Normal Deficient/Scanty

2015 2016

Excess/Normal 28 19

Deficient/Scanty 8 17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

No.

of M

et.

Su

b. D

ivis

ion

s

Number of Meteorological Sub-divisions with Excess/Normal and Deficit/scanty ranifall

(Week : June 16-22, 2016)

Excess/Normal Deficient/Scanty


C: Top Five Meteorological Sub-divisions based upon Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall

Data Source: IMD, New Delhi * States which are more important from view point of kharif Crop production are selected.

It can be observed that most of the central and west part of the country has witnessed deficient rainfall

while south Indian states have received excess rainfall.

D: Trend in Monsoon Rainfall Departure from Normal Rainfall during Week ending June 22, 2016


On weekly as well as seasonal basis, % departure of rainfall from normal has declined during week

ending June 22, 2016. The % deviation of actual rains from normal rain was -7% during week ending

June 22, 2016 as compared to -29% seen during week ending June 15, 2016. At Seasonal basis the

departure of rains from normal has also declined.

9361

5031

27

-18-41-44-45

-92-99

RayalaseemaNorth Interior KarnatakaCostal Andhra Pradesh

Himachal PradeshTamil Nadu & Pondicherry

IndiaEast Madhya Pradesh

West RajasthanVidarbha

Gujarat RegionSaurashtra, Kutch & Diu

% Departure from Normal Rainfall

Top Five* Deficient and Excess Rainfall Sub-Divisions based upon cumulative Rainfall

-36

-30

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

% D

ep

art

ure

01-Jun

08-Jun

15-Jun

22-Jun

29-Jun

06-Jul

13-Jul

20-Jul

27-Jul

03-Aug

10-Aug

17-Aug

24-Aug

31-Aug

07-Sep

14-Sep

21-Sep

28-Sep

Weekly -7 -18 -29 -7

Seasonal 0 -19 -25 -18

Trend in Rainfall Departue from Normal since the start of Monsoon Season


E: Week wise Trend in Deficient/Scanty rainfall Sub-divisions


On cumulative seasonal rainfall basis, the number of deficient rainfall sub-divisions remains 13 out of

36 for the week ending June 22, 2016.

F: State wise Distribution of Number of Districts with Deficient/Scanty and Excess Rainfall

Data Source: IMD, New Delhi, * States which are more important from view point of kharif Crop production are selected.

As can be seen from above Table that out of 18 major states, about 9 states are having more than 50%

district which are deficient in rains. The districts in Central, West and North Indian States are more

affected.

12

21 20

13

0369

121518212427303336

01-J

un

08-J

un

15-J

un

22-J

un

29-J

un

06-J

ul

13-J

ul

20-J

ul

27-J

ul

03-A

ug

10-A

ug

17-A

ug

24-A

ug

31-A

ug

07-S

ep

14-S

ep

21-S

ep

28-S

ep

05-O

ct

No. of M

et.

Sub. D

ivis

ions

Week wise Deficient Rainfall Sub-divisions on the basis of Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall

(Since the begining of the Monsoon Season)

100%

77%74%72%67%

61%57%56%54%47%45%42%

37%30%

22%17%

8%0%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

*Districts with Deficient Rainfall in various States (June 01-22, 2016)


Kharif Crop Sowing Progress

Sowing progress is running far behind as compared to last year in almost all commodities baring

sugarcane. Late onset of monsoon and its delay in further advancement towards central and north parts

of the country has remained the main cause behind slow progress in sowing activities. It is expected to

pick up momentum during July when whole country is fully covered with the monsoon showers.

Cotton and oilseeds sown area is 38 and 36% less as compared to the same period last year. However,

it is too early to assess about any shift in crop acreage of these crops. Clear picture will emerge

somewhere about mid-July.

The total sown area as on 17th June, as per reports received from States, stands at 84.21 lakh hectare

as compared to 93.63 lakh hectare at this time last year.

It is reported that rice has been sown/transplanted in 9.17 lakh ha, pulses in 3.32 lakh ha, coarse cereals

in 6.01 lakh ha, oilseeds in 1.88 lakh ha, sugarcane in 44.38 lakh hectare and cotton in 12.25 lakh ha.

(Source: PIB, MoAFW, 17 June 2016)

The details of the area covered so far and that covered during this time last year are given below:

(In Lakh hectare)

Crop Area sown in

2016-17 Area sown in

2015-16

Change over 2015-16

Absolute Percentage

Rice 9.17 10.19 -1.02 -10%

Pulses 3.32 4.53 -1.21 -27%

Coarse Cereals 6.01 7.19 -1.18 -16%

Oilseeds 1.88 2.92 -1.04 -36%

Sugarcane 44.38 41.58 2.8 7%

Jute & Mesta 7.21 7.56 -0.35 -5%

Cotton 12.25 19.66 -7.41 -38%

Total 84.21 93.63 -9.42 -10%


Kharif Crops Production Vulnerability Analysis

The analysis is aimed to assess the impact of rainfall departure from normal rainfall during the monsoon

season on the major kharif crops production.

Vulnerability Matrix (VM) Analysis:

Kharif crops production is largely dependent upon monsoon rainfall. A vulnerability matrix (VM) is drawn

which points out the vulnerability of the kharif crops on account of deficient rains on weekly basis. It

typically will represent the percentage of crop production which is vulnerable on account of deficient

rain. Thus, higher the value of vulnerability Matrix, more will be chance of crop damage. Similarly, crop

production will be considered to be better if the value of the VM will be less.

Many uncontrolled climate variable like rainfall, temperature and sunshine days, etc. influence the crop

production. To represent the impact of all these uncontrolled variable, rainfall is taken as a

representative variable. The volume and distribution of rain at the time of various stages of crop growth

affect yield and thus production.

For drawing the matrix, for each kharif crop the major states are ranked based on the share of their

production in total India’s production. Further, on weekly basis, the percent deviation of the rainfall from

normal is taken as a variable to represent deficient/excess rainfall during a period. Accordingly the

vulnerability of crops in rain deficient/excess zones has been checked.

Thus Vulnerability Matrix for a crop in a meteorological zone is calculated by multiplying the share of

that zone in the total crop production of India from percentage deviation of rainfall in that zone.

Other manageable factors impacting crop production are assumed to be constant. Further there may

be certain crops which do not require high rainfall and could witness higher production despite low

rainfall.

The crop yield and production is affected by many controlled and uncontrolled factors right from sowing

till harvesting. Even the quantum of precipitation at various growth states is equally important.

Thus, the above analysis gives an approximate idea about the crop condition as it considers rainfall

activity at aggregate level.


Vulnerability Matrix – 2016

Crop Major States

Percentage of Crop Vulnerable on account of deficient rains (%) 22-Jun

29-Jun

06- Jul

13- Jul

20- Jul

27- Jul

03-Aug

10-Aug

17-Aug

24-Aug

31-Aug

07-Sep

14-Sep

21-Sep

28-Sep

05-Oct

Cereals

Bajra

Rajasthan 23.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Gujarat 4.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 3.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Haryana, Delhi 5.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 36.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Maize

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Andhra Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Bihar - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rajasthan 5.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 5.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Rice

West Bengal 3.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Andhra Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Punjab - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Orissa 2.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Chhattisgarh 3.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Crop Major States


29-Jun

06- Jul

13- Jul

20- Jul

27- Jul

03-Aug

10-Aug

17-Aug

24-Aug

31-Aug

07-Sep

14-Sep

21-Sep

28-Sep

05-Oct

Bihar - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ragi

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Uttarakhand - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Maharashtra 6.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Pulses

Urad

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 4.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Jharkhand 1.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

West Bengal 0.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Orissa 0.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Chhattisgarh 0.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Arhar

Maharashtra 11.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Gujarat 7.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Jharkhand 2.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


Crop Major States


29-Jun

06- Jul

13- Jul

20- Jul

27- Jul

03-Aug

10-Aug

17-Aug

24-Aug

31-Aug

07-Sep

14-Sep

21-Sep

28-Sep

05-Oct

Overall 21.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Moong

Maharashtra 5.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rajasthan 14.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Gujarat 5.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Orissa 2.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 27.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Oilseeds

Groundnut

Gujarat 42.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 1.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rajasthan 6.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 50.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Soybean

Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 12.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rajasthan 4.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sunflower Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 3.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Punjab - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Crop Major States


29-Jun

06- Jul

13- Jul

20- Jul

27- Jul

03-Aug

10-Aug

17-Aug

24-Aug

31-Aug

07-Sep

14-Sep

21-Sep

28-Sep

05-Oct

Haryana 3.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

West Bengal 2.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Sesame

West Bengal 8.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Gujarat 11.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rajasthan 9.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Maharashtra 0.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Orissa 0.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 29.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Castor

Gujarat 65.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rajasthan 8.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Chhattisgarh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Orissa 0.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 73.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Others

Sugarcane

Uttar Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 8.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


Crop Major States


29-Jun

06- Jul

13- Jul

20- Jul

27- Jul

03-Aug

10-Aug

17-Aug

24-Aug

31-Aug

07-Sep

14-Sep

21-Sep

28-Sep

05-Oct

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cotton

Gujarat 25.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 8.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Punjab - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Haryana 3.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Madhya Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 37.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Jute West Bengal 28.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0

Overall 28.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Guar

Gujarat 0.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rajasthan 11.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Haryana 1.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Chilli

Andhra Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Orissa 4.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 1.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

West Bengal 2.6 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Rajasthan 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others -9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Turmeric

Andhra Pradesh - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -



Crop Major States


29-Jun

06- Jul

13- Jul

20- Jul

27- Jul

03-Aug

10-Aug

17-Aug

24-Aug

31-Aug

07-Sep

14-Sep

21-Sep

28-Sep

05-Oct

Orissa 3.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

West Bengal 1.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Karnataka - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Maharashtra 1.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Others -6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Overall 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Observations:

Till 22 June, not much area was covered by the monsoon rainfall. Many central, Western and North Indian states were falling under deficient rainfall

categories. Sowing activities are gradually picking up. As the monsoon will pick up momentum, the picture will be more visible.

Till now, the crops like Cotton, Castor, Groundnut, Moong, Arhar (Tur) and Bajra are found to be more water stressed as the vulnerability numbers are

on higher side. Typically these crops are grown mainly in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan regions where more than 50% of the districts fell in

deficient rainfall category till 22 June.

It is worth mentioning here that 100% of the districts of Gujarat fall under rainfall deficient category. Thus the Vulnerability numbers are very high in

Gujarat region for some of these crops.

Higher Vulnerability numbers due to below normal rainfall activity indicates that the production of the above crops may be adversely affected. However,

it is very preliminary stage to judge the impact analysis owing to deficit rainfall as the sowing activity as well as monsoon will pick up momentum from

July onwards.


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Documents

Weekly Monsoon Report June 27, 2016 - NCDEX · 2016-06-27 · Weekly Monsoon Report 5 Monday, 27 June 2016 Progress of Monsoon Monsoon has further advanced into some parts of north