weekly football tip sheetWelcome to Week 2 of the 2015-16 Vegas Insider Football Weekly, and welcome to the start of another exciting NFL season. We hope those of you were able to

weekly football tip sheet

ISSUE 2College Football Week 2

NFL Week 1

VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

Welcome to Week 2 of the 2015-16 Vegas Insider Football Weekly, and welcome to the start of another exciting NFL season. We hope those of you were able to get a copy of last week’s college football kickoff issue and enjoyed the coverage. In this week’s issue, we will cover the kickoff of the 2015 NFL season as well as the college second week action. If you were under a rock last week or were unable to see a computer, TV, or any other info transmitting device, the NFL season indeed starts on Thursday and Tom Brady WILL be in action for the Patriots as

they host the Steelers. We cover that game in depth with picks, stats, trends, analysis and more, just as we do for every pro & college game.

At Vegas Insider, we are “The Global Leader in Sports Gaming Information”, and we feel strongly that the Vegas Insider Football Weekly adds another notch in the belt of that title. This is our fourth full season producing what is become one of the leading tipsheet publications in the market. Hopefully you agree and have locked yourself in for a season subscription at a heavily discounted rate from our weekly cover price.

The VIFW is also the ONLY place you’ll be able to take advantage of FOUR key sets of strength ratings we’ve developed and maintained in house for several years. These are the exact same ratings that some of the best oddsmakers in the sports betting world use to help create their numbers! In last week’s college football kickoff issue, our Power Ratings were 8-2 ATS in our 10 featured games, and our Effective Strength Indicators were 7-3. Those successes were only outdone by VI Jim, who went a sparkling 9-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS on Best Bets. If you recall, he was our leading capper for both college and pro football last year and he seems deadest on defending that title in 2015.

We received a great response to the College Football Stability article published in last week’s season opening issue. Like last year, we have decided to continue the series on Stability Mismatches, listing the Top 10 Mismatches for Week 2.This isn’t the only place to get picks however, as our experts offer their takes on this week’s games on the selections pages for both college & pro.

We also post a special NFL Systems article for you in this week’s issue, detailing unique betting angles that have performed very well in Week 1 of recent NFL seasons, taking into account lines, totals, and stats from last season. Vegas Insider is the only place you can get this material.

We thank you for reading the VIFW and welcome you to become a regular subscriber by following any of the appropriately tagged ads on our web property, VegasInsider.com. While there, of course, take advantage of everything we have to offer, including daily free and premium picks, stats, editorial analysis, and more.

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule .........................................................................................2

NFL VI Picks ......................................................................................................3

NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown .........................................................4

NFL Top Weekly Trends ...................................................................................5

NFL Strength Ratings ......................................................................................6

NFL Matchups .................................................................................................7

Top NFL Week 1 Historical Systems and Qualifying Games for 2015 ......12

College Football VI Picks .............................................................................15

College Football Strength Ratings .............................................................16

College Football Head-to-Head Series Breakdown .................................18

College Football Matchups ........................................................................22

College Football Top Weekly Trends ..........................................................34

Top 10 College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 2 .......................35

Football Line Moves .....................................................................................36

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


ROTATION SCHEDULE461 PITTSBURGH 50.5 51.5 345 OREGON ST 49.5 48 395 IDAHO 64 66

P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ABC P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM PAC12462 NEW ENGLAND -7 -6.5 346 MICHIGAN -14 -15 396 USC -43 -44

347 TULANE 54.5 54.5 397 TULSA 67.5 72P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM

348 GEORGIA TECH -29 -29 398 NEW MEXICO -4 -4301 LOUISIANA TECH 67 62 349 GEORGIA -19 -20 399 UCF 43 43.5

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM FOX 1 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBS P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM FOX 1302 W KENTUCKY -2 0 350 VANDERBILT 56 52 400 STANFORD -17 -19

351 BOISE ST -2 -3 401 UCLA -29 -29P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPN2 P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM CBSC

303 MIAMI FL -17 -18 352 BYU 56.5 54.5 402 UNLV 62 64.5P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM FOX 1 353 NOTRE DAME -10 -12

304 FLA ATLANTIC 58 55 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC305 UTAH ST 47 44 354 VIRGINIA 51.5 47.5

P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN2 355 IOWA -4.5 -3.5 463 GREEN BAY -5 -6.5306 UTAH -12 -14 P: 1:45PM C: 3:45PM E: 4:45PM FOX P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

356 IOWA ST 54 52 464 CHICAGO 50 50357 SAN DIEGO ST 61 61 465 KANSAS CITY 42 40

307 SOUTH FLORIDA 52 53 P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM PAC12 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 8:30AM C: 10:30AM E: 11:30AM ESPN 358 CALIFORNIA -7.5 -13 466 HOUSTON -1 -1.5

308 FLORIDA ST -28 -28 359 MEMPHIS -12 -14 467 CLEVELAND 41 40309 W MICHIGAN -4 -4 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM 360 KANSAS 54.5 57.5 468 NY JETS -2.5 -3310 GA SOUTHERN 56 56.5 361 TOLEDO 54.5 54 469 INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 -2.5311 BUFFALO 49 49.5 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN2 362 ARKANSAS -22 -22 470 BUFFALO 47 45.5312 PENN ST -19 -20 363 MIDDLE TENN ST 57 56.5 471 MIAMI -2.5 -4313 ARMY 48 47 P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM CBSC 364 ALABAMA -36 -34 472 WASHINGTON 44 43314 CONNECTICUT -6.5 -7.5 365 SAN JOSE ST 53.5 58 473 CAROLINA -4 -3315 EAST CAROLINA 56 53.5 P: 7:15PM C: 9:15PM E: 10:15PM ESPNU P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPN2 366 AIR FORCE -7 -6.5 474 JACKSONVILLE 42.5 41316 FLORIDA -15 -20 367 PITTSBURGH -14 -13 475 SEATTLE -3 -4317 HOUSTON 53.5 54 P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FSN 368 AKRON 52 51 476 ST LOUIS 43 41318 LOUISVILLE -12 -13 369 BOWLING GREEN 63.5 68.5 477 NEW ORLEANS 47 47.5319 FRESNO ST 56 54 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM BIG10 P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN2 370 MARYLAND -9 -7.5 478 ARIZONA -2.5 -3320 OLE MISS -27 -29 371 ARIZONA -11 -11 479 DETROIT 45.5 45321 TEMPLE 51 51.5 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM CBSC P: 1:05PM C: 3:05PM E: 4:05PM

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPNN 372 NEVADA 62 62 480 SAN DIEGO -2 -3322 CINCINNATI -7.5 -6.5 373 KENTUCKY 58.5 57 481 TENNESSEE 42 41.5323 LSU -2 -4 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM SEC P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM

P: 6:15PM C: 8:15PM E: 9:15PM ESPN 374 SOUTH CAROLINA -9.5 -7.5 482 TAMPA BAY -3 -3324 MISSISSIPPI ST 48 49.5 375 NORTH TEXAS 56 58 483 CINCINNATI -3 -3325 MIAMI OHIO 53 53 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU 376 SMU -3 -4.5 484 OAKLAND 44 43.5326 WISCONSIN -33 -33 377 BALL ST 62 63.5 485 BALTIMORE 52 49327 KANSAS ST -20 -17 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM ESPNU P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FOX 1 378 TEXAS A&M -29 -30 486 DENVER -4 -5328 TX-SAN ANTONIO 51.5 52 379 UTEP 65.5 66 487 NY GIANTS 49.5 51.5329 MARSHALL -4 -3.5 P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM FSN P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 380 TEXAS TECH -20 -20 488 DALLAS -6 -6330 OHIO U 60.5 61.5 381 WASHINGTON ST 63 62331 HAWAII 59.5 59.5 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPNU

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM 382 RUTGERS 0 -2 489 PHILADELPHIA -1 -3332 OHIO ST -39 -40 383 OKLAHOMA 61 61.5 P: 4:10PM C: 6:10PM E: 7:10PM ESPN333 WAKE FOREST 43.5 44 P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM ESPN 490 ATLANTA 53 55.5

P: 9:30AM C: 11:30AM E: 12:30PM 384 TENNESSEE -1 0 491 MINNESOTA 41 -2.5334 SYRACUSE -6 -4.5 385 RICE 52 51 P: 7:20PM C: 9:20PM E: 10:20PM ESPN335 APPALACHIAN ST 58 58.5 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM 492 SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 41.5

P: 9:30AM C: 11:30AM E: 12:30PM 386 TEXAS -16 -16336 CLEMSON -19 -17 387 GEORGIA ST 64.5 63.5337 MISSOURI -13 -11 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM

P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 388 NEW MEXICO ST -5.5 -6.5338 ARKANSAS ST 57 59.5 389 S ALABAMA 55.5 54339 E MICHIGAN 57 54.5 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM BIG10

P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM 390 NEBRASKA -26 -27340 WYOMING -14 -13 391 OREGON 67.5 67341 MASSACHUSETTS 62 63 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ABC

P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM PAC12 392 MICHIGAN ST -2.5 -4342 COLORADO -14 -13 393 FLA INTERNATIONAL 54 55343 MINNESOTA -4.5 -6 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM BIG10

P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM CBSC 394 INDIANA -7.5 -7.5344 COLORADO ST 54 53.5

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2015

NFL WEEK 1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2015SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2015THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2015

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 2THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2015

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2015

NFL WEEK 1 Cont'dSUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2015

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2015

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3


VI Jim says…I’ll be honest, I told some buddies a couple of weeks ago that I thought Detroit had the potential to surprise some people this season. That said, I don’t like the Lions’ chances to get off to a good start here, as this is a tough spot for them. Detroit simply hasn’t been good when traveling west as a franchise. In fact, in their last 16 games on the road versus West Division (AFC or NFC) opponents, they are just 2-13-1 ATS. I also think the Lions’ defense is going to have to learn to play without Ndamukong Suh, and that might take some time. San Diego isn’t known for fast starts, but has QB Rivers back under contract and rookie RB Melvin Gordon in the fold. One of this week’s systems says home favorites in week one against teams that had a better record the prior year are 29-9-4 ATS. I’ll take those odds, San Diego wins.

VI Jason says…If you haven’t heard, Tom Brady will play for the Patriots this week as they open the season as defending champions almost always do, at home celebrating their title. It’s been said that New England might have a chip on its shoulder this season, especially early, thanks to the deflategate situation. That would not bode well for Pittsburgh, who is working in a new defensive system and will be without stud RB Leveon Bell. The Steelers have also struggled in New England, going 1-3 SU & ATS in L4, with an average loss margin of 20.3 PPG. The history of this season kickoff game shows that the host team has won 12 straight times while going 8-2-2 ATS. To me it seems almost certain that the Patriots will win here. As such I’m willing to lay the 6.5 points. New England wins 34-20.

VI Doug says…While most as still high on the Dallas Cowboys and justifiable so, the New York Giants present a different challenge because of the weapons they have on the perimeter. Eli Manning, if given any time to throw can look in almost any direction with complete confidence to a receiver very skilled to haul in a pass. Tony Romo will still lead a very good offense but the loss of DeMarco Murray will matter and the chemistry of using primarily one back compared to three will affect the Dallas offensive line no matter how good they are. Both teams have suffered injuries in the secondary, which will make having a strong pass rush a must, but cannot ignore the G-Man are catching six points against Dallas, who is 6-20 ATS as home favorites. Giants threaten or pull the upset.

VI Jim 91-92 (50%) 27-28 (49%)*

VI Jason 81-102 (44%) 30-25 (55%)*

VI Doug No Picks in 2014

Power Ratings88-95 (48%)

Effective Strength 75-108 (41%)

Forecaster 85-98 (46%)

Bettors Ratings 96-87 (52%)

Consensus 89-94 (49%)

Thursday, September 10, 2015 - (461) PITTSBURGH at (462) NEW ENGLAND (-6.5)Pittsburgh New

England*

New

England

New

England

New

England

Pittsburgh New

England

New Englan

Thursday, September 10, 2015 - (461) PITTSBURGH at (462) NEW ENGLAND - TOTAL (51.5)UNDER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

Sunday, September 13, 2015 - (469) INDIANAPOLIS at (470) BUFFALO (+2.5)Indianapolis* Indianapolis Indianapolis* Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo

Sunday, September 13, 2015 - (469) INDIANAPOLIS at (470) BUFFALO - TOTAL (45.5)OVER UNDER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, September 13, 2015 - (479) DETROIT at (480) SAN DIEGO (-3)San

Diego*

San

Diego

San

Diego

San

Diego

Detroit Detroit San

Diego

San Diego

Sunday, September 13, 2015 - (479) DETROIT at (480) SAN DIEGO - TOTAL (45)UNDER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

Sunday, September 13, 2015 - (487) NY GIANTS at (488) DALLAS (-6)NY Giants NY

Giants*

NY

Giants*

Dallas Dallas NY Giants Dallas NY Giants

Sunday, September 13, 2015 - (487) NY GIANTS at (488) DALLAS - TOTAL (51.5)OVER UNDER OVER* UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

Monday, September 14, 2015 - (489) PHILADELPHIA at (490) ATLANTA (+3)Philadelphia Atlanta* Philadelphia Atlanta Philadelphia Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta

Monday, September 14, 2015 - (489) PHILADELPHIA at (490) ATLANTA - TOTAL (55.5)UNDER* OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

NFL VI PICKS

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For every issue of the Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

THURSDAY, SEPT.10(461) PITTSBURGH at (462) NEW ENGLANDNew England has largely held the advantage over Pittsburgh the since 2005 with 5-2 SU and ATS record. The road team and the underdog have held a slight 4-3 ATS edge, though this has not been an exact match. Dating back to 2002, the Over has been the play at 8-2, yet only two of those matchups had totals higher than 45.5.

SUNDAY, SEPT.13(463) GREEN BAY at (464) CHICAGOGreen Bay probably wishes they could play more often at Soldier Field, sporting a 19-5 and 18-6 ATS record there since 1992. In truth, it’s hardly mattered where they have played as the Packers are 11-3 ATS in the last 14 matchups, leaving Bears fans forlorn. Chicago has mostly been the underdog which is why they are 4-10 ATS. The Over is 3-0 after 11-1Under roll.

(465) KANSAS CITY at (466) HOUSTONDespite being in the same conference, just the seven meeting between these squads in a fairly important opener. The visitor has been the correct choice with a sweet 5-1 ATS record, but we do have some other oddities. Though the sample size is small, this battle has either been Kansas City and Over or Houston and Under, with the former the last contest in 2013.

(467) CLEVELAND at (468) N.Y. JETSThough both teams are expected to finish last in their respective divisions, check out the favorites, who has won and covered five in a row and six of seven dating to 1994 with the first Cleveland Browns. Otherwise, New York has taken the past two in 2013 and 2010. In reviewing the total, the Under has been accurate with a 5-2 mark in this span.

(469) INDIANAPOLIS at (470) BUFFALOThese teams used to be in the same division, but this before the NFL divided up clubs into eight divisions, they have only competed four times since 2003. The last was three years ago as Indianapolis won 20-13 as two-point home favorites and the total of 51 points was never threatened, which was the biggest number in the series history. The Under is 5-1 of late.

(471) MIAMI at (472) WASHINGTONThis confrontation is more known for the two times they met in the Super Bowl than regular season contests. They last hooked up in South Florida with Miami winning 20-9 as four-point favorites four seasons ago. That made the favorite 3-1-1 against the spread

in last five meetings. In a similar vein, the Under has gotten the call at 4-1 in same span.

(473) CAROLINA at (474) JACKSONVILLEThese two squads were expansion partners and played their first games in 1996, which included a meeting between them, with Jacksonville winning 24-14 as 2.5-point home underdogs. Since then they have split four games, both SU and against the number. Carolina will attempt to make it three straight covers for the favored team. In all, the Under is 3-2 in this nonconference clash.

(475) SEATTLE at (476) ST. LOUISWe as sports bettors are well aware of the Super Bowl loser hangover and if a team was going to suffer, it would be Seattle based on the outcome. St. Louis will try and take advantage of the Seahawks and are 4-1 ATS the past five years at home against them with a trio of outright outsets. The Under is a profitable 8-2 since 2010.

(477) NEW ORLEANS at (478) ARIZONAThis will be only the fifth regular season gathering between these teams since the turn of the century and the second in the desert. Going back 13 years and including their playoff game, the home team is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS, with just one contest decided by less than 10 points. The 2013 tilt was the first Over in five previous games.

(479) DETROIT at (480) SAN DIEGOThis is another rare experience as these teams meet up only every four years. Detroit ended a four-game losing and non-cover streak versus San Diego in 2011, crushing the Chargers 38-10 in the Motor City as a Pick. Prior to that San Diego has defeated the Lions home or away, as both faves or dogs. The Under is a modest 3-2 overall.

(481) TENNESSEE at (482) TAMPA BAYThis is these teams seventh joust since 1995 and Tennessee/Houston has been the better team five of the six times (4-1-1 ATS). The favorite, Tampa Bay in this case, tries to make it four in a row in the battle of T’s. The Under has won the past two after three consecutive Over’s and given two rookie quarterbacks on bad offenses, this could occur again.

(483) CINCINNATI at (484) OAKLANDThe Bengals are a solid 6-2 ATS in this AFC affair. The home team has been downright dominant at 7-1 ATS, which includes three winners in a row. The favorite is attempting to balance the books with recent 3-2 ATS mark after three straight losers. These have been generally lower scoring games with the Under 6-2 going back 23 years.

(485) BALTIMORE at (486) DENVERThe past 15 years this has been a heated confrontation with a number of big games played during the regular season or in the playoffs. Baltimore has enjoyed a significant edge at 8-3 ATS, with all but one cover coming in the favorite role. The fave is on 5-1 and 7-2 ATS roll and the Over is a sterling 4-0 since 2010 after four straight Under’s.

(487) N.Y. GIANTS at (488) DALLASThe most important element in this rivalry contest is the total for football bettors. The Over has hit five straight and 10 of 12 since 2009. Though divisional

NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


5


games frequently lend themselves to lower scoring outcomes, not this one and oddsmakers, try as they might (only one total below 43 since 2005), have not been able to balance the action. All other aspects are close.

MONDAY, SEPT.15(489) PHILADELPHIA at (490) ATLANTAThese NFC teams met frequently in the first decade of this century (8 times), but just three times since and not since 2012. Philadelphia was holding a domineering 7-2 ATS edge, but Atlanta has won and covered

the previous two to narrow the gap. Amazingly, this will be the 12th consecutive time the Falcons will be underdogs and they are 4-7 ATS.

(491) MINNESOTA at (492) SAN FRANCISCOFrom 1992 to 1999, these NFC teams met each year except for ‘96, yet have only gotten together a half dozen times since. Going back to ‘92, this is the first time Minnesota will be an away favorite versus the Niners and all faves are only 5-8 ATS in that period. With San Fran’s presumed offense woes, good chance the Under moves to 5-1.

NFL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS(469) INDIANAPOLIS AT (470) BUFFALOINDIANAPOLIS is 28-14-1 ATS(L5Y) - OU line of 45 or more( $1260 Profit with a 26.6% ROI )

(463) GREEN BAY AT (464) CHICAGOGREEN BAY is 34-16 ATS(L50G) - VS NFC-NORTH( $1640 Profit with a 29.8% ROI )

(475) SEATTLE AT (476) ST LOUISSEATTLE is 47-24-1 ATS(L5Y) - All Games( $2060 Profit with a 26.0% ROI )

26.6% ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY ON

29.8% ROI

26.0% ROI

(471) MIAMI AT (472) WASHINGTONWASHINGTON is 9-22-1 ATS(L3Y) - All Games( $1210 Profit with a 34.4% ROI )

(463) GREEN BAY AT (464) CHICAGOCHICAGO is 15-33-2 ATS(L50G) - AS underdog of 7 or less points( $1650 Profit with a 30.0% ROI )

(475) SEATTLE AT (476) ST LOUISST LOUIS is 14-33-3 ATS(L50G) - In September( $1760 Profit with a 32.0% ROI )

34.4% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

30.0% ROI

32.0% ROI

(471) MIAMI AT (472) WASHINGTONWASHINGTON is 9-22-1 ATS(L3Y) - All Games( $1210 Profit with a 34.4% ROI )

(463) GREEN BAY AT (464) CHICAGOCHICAGO is 15-33-2 ATS(L50G) - AS underdog of 7 or less points( $1650 Profit with a 30.0% ROI )

(475) SEATTLE AT (476) ST LOUISST LOUIS is 14-33-3 ATS(L50G) - In September( $1760 Profit with a 32.0% ROI )

34.4% ROI

TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

30.0% ROI

32.0% ROI

(465) KANSAS CITY AT (466) HOUSTONKANSAS CITY is 32-17-1 UNDER(L50G) - As underdog( $1330 Profit with a 24.2% ROI )

(479) DETROIT AT (480) SAN DIEGOSAN DIEGO is 32-18 UNDER(L50G) at HOME - OU line of 45 or more( $1220 Profit with a 22.2% ROI )

(475) SEATTLE AT (476) ST LOUISST LOUIS is 31-18-1 UNDER(L50G) - VS NFC-WEST( $1120 Profit with a 20.4% ROI )

24.2% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

22.2% ROI

20.4% ROI

6




Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied

schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?461 PITTSBURGH 51.5 26 20.3 22.7 22.9 462 NEW ENGLAND -6.5 29 -6.9 30.2 28.5 32.3 463 GREEN BAY -6.5 30 29.1 25.1 26.9 464 CHICAGO 50 21 6.3 20.7 24.4 CHI 24.1 465 KANSAS CITY 40 25 19.5 17.5 20.7 OVER466 HOUSTON -1.5 23 -1.5 20.9 21.8 24.5 467 CLEVELAND 40 19 21.4 CLE 20.3 19.4 468 NY JETS -3 19 -3.1 19.1 20.5 22.1 469 INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 28 24.1 24.5 25.5 OVER470 BUFFALO 45.5 23 2.4 22.7 22.3 27.5 BUF 471 MIAMI -4 24 26.4 24.6 22.3 472 WASHINGTON 43 17 3.9 18.0 19.7 20.0 473 CAROLINA -3 23 22.9 22.3 18.2 474 JACKSONVILLE 41 17 3.6 18.7 19.1 18.6 475 SEATTLE -4 30 23.6 22.2 21.4 476 ST LOUIS 41 23 4.1 18.2 19.6 20.0 477 NEW ORLEANS 47.5 24 18.7 20.2 20.5 478 ARIZONA -3 25 -3.9 28.4 ARZ 27.5 24.9 479 DETROIT 45 24 20.7 20.7 23.5 OVER480 SAN DIEGO -3 24 -3.0 23.3 22.7 27.9 481 TENNESSEE 41.5 16 19.4 19.8 20.2 482 TAMPA BAY -3 16 -3.0 22.4 21.3 25.1 483 CINCINNATI -3 24 24.2 21.9 21.2 484 OAKLAND 43.5 18 4.1 19.3 21.9 21.1 485 BALTIMORE 49 27 23.2 23.6 22.7 OVER486 DENVER -5 29 -5.4 26.4 26.6 30.9 487 NY GIANTS 51.5 23 21.3 22.9 22.7 488 DALLAS -6 27 -6.3 28.6 26.1 31.9 489 PHILADELPHIA -3 26 28.2 28.9 31.1 OVER490 ATLANTA 55.5 21 2.4 23.3 27.1 29.6 491 MINNESOTA -2.5 23 21.9 21.0 16.8 492 SAN FRANCISCO 41.5 19 0.3 19.4 20.0 21.8 SF

VEGASINSIDER NFL STRENGTH RATINGS


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(461) PITTSBURGH [SU:11-6 | ATS:9-8] AT (462) NEW ENGLAND (-6.5 | 51.5) [SU:15-4 | ATS:11-8]SEPTEMBER 10, 2015 8:30 PM on NBC - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 26.6 24 26-107 [4.1] 39-26-303 [7.8] 15.4 23.4 20 23-97 [4.2] 34-22-253 [7.5] 15.0 -2 +3.2 NEW ENGLAND 30.3 23 27-104 [3.9] 39-26-267 [6.8] 12.2 19.7 21 26-108 [4.1] 35-21-236 [6.7] 17.5 +14 +10.6

For those wagering on division winners, Pittsburgh is a close second to Baltimore as they prepare to take on the Super Bowl champions. Ben Roethlisberger is at the controls of a strong offense that can generate big plays or move the chains, but will be without several of the important parts to start the season. The defense is still in transition and the Steelers are 3-9 ATS recently against New England. The Patriots will have Tom Brady after all and while most assume he will be even more determined, this whole Deflategate has been a major distraction and not sure he will be a sharp as most expect. Line has moved back to Pats at -6.5 or -7.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS(L5Y) VS high-scoring teams averaging 25 PPG or more[L2Y]• PITTSBURGH is 1-7 ATS(L3Y) - In September• NEW ENGLAND is 6-1 OVER(L5Y) - Before playing BUFFALO

(463) GREEN BAY (-6.5 | 50) [SU:13-5 | ATS:10-7-1] AT (464) CHICAGO [SU:5-11 | ATS:7-9]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 1:00 PM on FOX - SOLDIER FIELD (CHICAGO, IL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFGREEN BAY 29.7 22 27-121 [4.4] 34-22-263 [7.8] 12.9 22.1 21 28-125 [4.4] 34-20-222 [6.5] 15.7 +17 +7.6CHICAGO 19.9 20 22-90 [4.1] 38-25-237 [6.2] 16.4 27.6 20 26-113 [4.3] 34-23-264 [7.7] 13.7 -5 -7.7

Green Bay is hoping Randall Cobb is ready for this contest after shoulder scare in Week 3 of preseason with Jordy Nelson lost for the year. This leaves the Packers young at wide receiver and Chicago will no doubt stack to box to take away RB Eddie Lacy, double Cobb and play press coverage on the other Pack pass-catchers. Nonetheless, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are comfortable in Chicago with a 19-5 and 18-6 ATS mark there since 1992. John Fox takes over in the Windy City and will improve the defense in time, but preventing Jay Cutler from making miscues is another matter. The Bears are 0-6-1 ATS at home the first half of season the last two years.

GAME TRENDS• GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS(L5Y) - (VS OPP) Starting QB - CUTLER• CHICAGO is 0-5 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - AS underdog of 7 or less points• CHICAGO is 7-1 OVER(L3Y) - In September

(465) KANSAS CITY [SU:9-7 | ATS:10-5-1] AT (466) HOUSTON (-1.5 | 40) [SU:9-7 | ATS:9-6-1]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFKANSAS CITY 22.1 19 26-120 [4.6] 31-20-199 [6.5] 14.4 17.6 19 27-127 [4.7] 34-20-203 [6.0] 18.8 -3 +4.5HOUSTON 23.2 20 34-135 [3.9] 30-18-209 [6.9] 14.8 19.2 21 26-105 [4.0] 39-23-243 [6.3] 18.1 +12 +4.0

Important contest for both these AFC clubs with playoff aspirations. Quarterback Alex Smith will want to find a wide receiver for touchdown early after the Chiefs went 0 for 2014 in that category. Despite his greatness, Jamaal Charles needs fewer carries with age and the defense has to solid throughout for a team who is 6-3 ATS as road underdogs the past two years. Houston is generally improved but Brian Hoyer winning the starting QB job limits team’s potential. Texans have a good offensive line and are solid at many positions on defense, but are not in Indianapolis stratosphere. Houston was 4-1 ATS when favored by three or less in 2014, but that does not happen every season.

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS CITY is 6-1-1 ATS(L5Y) VS resilient defenses allowing more than 17.15 yards per point[L2Y]• HOUSTON is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - VS AFC-WEST• KANSAS CITY is 5-1 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - AS underdog of 7 or less points

NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



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(467) CLEVELAND [SU:7-9 | ATS:9-6-1] AT (468) NY JETS (-3 | 40) [SU:4-12 | ATS:6-9-1]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEVELAND 18.7 18 30-108 [3.6] 31-17-217 [6.9] 17.4 21.1 22 31-142 [4.5] 37-21-224 [6.1] 17.3 +6 -2.4 NY JETS 17.7 18 32-142 [4.5] 31-18-184 [5.9] 18.4 25.1 19 25-93 [3.8] 34-22-234 [7.0] 13.0 -11 -7.4

Two franchises trying to be relevant in the AFC instead of finishing last in their divisions. The fact that Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzgerald will be these clubs starting signal callers speaks volumes. New York deserves to be favored because they are at home, have the more complete defense and at least can run the ball. Cleveland has little to fall back offensively and could have a number of short series in this contest. One good aspect for the Browns is 5-1-1 ATS mark as visiting underdog. The Jets will seek to run the ball, force Cleveland to defend and take shot to receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. The Flyboys are 23-30-1 as home faves since 2005.

GAME TRENDS• CLEVELAND is 4-1-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - In September• NY JETS is 2-5 ATS(L5Y) - VS AFC-NORTH• CLEVELAND is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - All Games

(469) INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5 | 45.5) [SU:13-6 | ATS:12-6-1] AT (470) BUFFALO [SU:9-7 | ATS:9-7]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - RALPH WILSON STADIUM (BUFFALO, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 27.1 23 26-100 [3.9] 41-25-298 [7.2] 14.7 23.0 19 27-115 [4.3] 35-20-223 [6.4] 14.7 -8 +4.1 BUFFALO 21.4 17 25-93 [3.7] 36-23-226 [6.2] 14.9 18.1 19 26-106 [4.1] 35-21-206 [5.9] 17.2 +7 +3.3

Buffalo seems to have everything it needs to make the playoffs except at one position, quarterback. Hard to imagine how bad Matt Cassel and E. J. Manuel had to play to have Tyrod Taylor beat them out. This is Rex Ryan’s problem now and facing Indianapolis is a challenge and an opportunity for the Bills who are 29-15 ATS the first two weeks of the season. The Colts offense should have better balance if Frank Gore gets a few blocks, setting up what Andrew Luck wants to do. Defensively, Indy should be better with last year’s injured players back, but not close to elite group. Colts a super 25-11 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less.

GAME TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 8-2-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - As favorite• BUFFALO is 2-5 ATS(L5Y) - VS AFC-SOUTH• BUFFALO is 4-1 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - In September

(471) MIAMI (-4 | 43) [SU:8-8 | ATS:7-9] AT (472) WASHINGTON [SU:4-12 | ATS:4-11-1]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 1:00 PM on CBS - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI 24.2 23 25-117 [4.7] 37-25-233 [6.3] 14.5 23.3 19 28-121 [4.3] 34-21-222 [6.6] 14.7 +2 +0.9 WASHINGTON 18.8 20 25-106 [4.2] 34-23-253 [7.4] 19.1 27.4 19 26-108 [4.1] 32-22-249 [7.7] 13.0 -12 -8.6

The Washington soap opera continues as coach Jay Gruden’s dislike for Robert Griffith III leaves him on the sideline while turnover-prone Kirk Cousins is back as starting quarterback. Chances are slim Cousins remains healthy by the time Octobers rolls around if the Redskins line block like they did for RG3 against Miami’s defensive line, the backup might play in the opener. Washington is 2-8 ATS as non-division home underdog recently. It is playoffs or bust for coach Joe Philbin, who need QB Ryan Tannehill to blossom into Top 10 field general this season for Miami. The Dolphins defense could be special, but for a team that is so good as road dogs, they are only 2-4 ATS away favorites.

GAME TRENDS• MIAMI is 5-1 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - On grass field• WASHINGTON is 4-14-1 ATS(L3Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points• MIAMI is 5-1 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - as favorite of 7 or less points




NFL MATCHUPS


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(473) CAROLINA (-3 | 41) [SU:8-9 | ATS:9-9] AT (474) JACKSONVILLE [SU:3-13 | ATS:6-9-1]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 1:00 PM on FOX - EVERBANK FIELD (JACKSONVILLE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA 21.3 22 30-131 [4.3] 34-20-219 [6.4] 16.4 23.4 18 24-107 [4.4] 34-22-219 [6.4] 13.9 0 -2.1 JACKSONVILLE 15.6 17 23-102 [4.5] 35-20-188 [5.4] 18.6 25.8 21 31-127 [4.1] 34-22-244 [7.2] 14.4 -6 -10.2

Blake Bortles has played with more poise in the preseason and will get a chance to show what kind of improvement he’s made in opener. Jacksonville is still young squad, but after only seven wins in two seasons, coach Gus Bradley’s future could be riding on seven-win campaign. The Jaguars are only 3-11-1 ATS under Bradley as home underdogs. Carolina won the division despite losing record and losing WR Kelvin Benjamin does not help the offense. Cam Newton is not a first-rate quarterback, but an above average playmaker, which is his key strength. Panthers still look strong on defense in front 7, however, are merely 3-6-1 ATS as non-division away faves since 2006.

GAME TRENDS• CAROLINA is 5-3 ATS(L8G) on ROAD - First game of the season• JACKSONVILLE is 0-8 ATS(L3Y) - In September• JACKSONVILLE is 5-1 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - In September

(475) SEATTLE (-4 | 41) [SU:14-5 | ATS:11-8] AT (476) ST LOUIS [SU:6-10 | ATS:7-9]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 1:00 PM on FOX - EDWARD JONES DOME (ST LOUIS, MO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SEATTLE 25.1 20 32-169 [5.2] 28-17-207 [7.5] 15.0 16.9 18 24-86 [3.5] 33-21-194 [5.9] 16.6 +11 +8.2 ST LOUIS 20.2 18 25-102 [4.1] 32-20-212 [6.6] 15.5 22.1 19 27-110 [4.2] 34-23-241 [7.2] 15.9 -2 -1.9

A great deal of conjecture about Seattle suffering in September of Super Bowl hangover after giving away trophy with questionable play-calling. A division game should be the necessary wake-up call for the Seahawks but a 1-4 ATS record in St. Louis the past five years, being upset on three occasions, has the oddsmakers keeping Seattle at -3 at last glance. The Rams have not seen a winning season since 2004 and hand the reins over to Nick Foles to change their fortunes. Foles will be a behind a shaky offensive line and needs a running game to succeed. St. Louis since 2006 is a not too bad 10-8 ATS as NFC West home team catching points.

GAME TRENDS• SEATTLE is 39-15 ATS(L5Y) - VS NFC• ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS(L8G) at HOME - First game of the season• SEATTLE is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) - VS NFC-WEST

(477) NEW ORLEANS [SU:7-9 | ATS:6-10] AT (478) ARIZONA (-3 | 47.5) [SU:11-6 | ATS:11-6]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 4:05 PM on FOX - UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX STADIUM (GLENDALE, AZ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 25.1 25 25-114 [4.5] 41-28-298 [7.2] 16.4 26.5 22 28-133 [4.8] 34-21-251 [7.4] 14.5 -13 -1.4 ARIZONA 19.2 18 24-79 [3.2] 35-20-227 [6.5] 15.9 19.2 19 26-113 [4.4] 36-23-256 [7.1] 19.2 +8 0.0

The offensive lines for both these NFC squads showed little in the preseason, thus, whoever can quickly establish continuity should have an edge coming out of the blocks in this matchup. Both teams want to run the ball more with their quarterbacks getting up in years. Also, each defense does off the wall stuff to create confusion and doubt for the opposing quarterback, which makes turnovers even more important in this confrontation. Situational handicapping favors the home team as Arizona is 7-2-1 ATS as home choice under Bruce Arians, while New Orleans has been anything but road warriors at 3-7-1 ATS the last four seasons. Hard game to pick with teams potentially being 10-6 or 6-10 in 2015.

GAME TRENDS• ARIZONA is 4-1 ATS(L5G) - Before playing CHICAGO• NEW ORLEANS is 0-5 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Before playing TAMPA BAY• NEW ORLEANS is 6-1 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - In September




NFL MATCHUPS

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(479) DETROIT [SU:11-6 | ATS:8-9] AT (480) SAN DIEGO (-3 | 45) [SU:9-7 | ATS:7-9]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 4:05 PM on FOX - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DETROIT 20.1 19 25-89 [3.6] 38-23-255 [6.7] 17.1 18.0 19 22-70 [3.2] 37-24-232 [6.3] 16.8 +5 +2.1 SAN DIEGO 21.8 20 25-85 [3.4] 36-24-256 [7.1] 15.6 21.8 19 27-124 [4.5] 33-20-214 [6.5] 15.5 -5 0.0

Another arresting encounter with two clubs who could be playoff bound or sitting at .500. Both defenses have things they do well and can be effective in limiting what the opposing teams likes to do. Offensively, both are expected to give rookie running backs a go, playing behind at least average offensive lines. All this is well and good, nevertheless, how Philip Rivers and Mathew Stafford perform will have the most to do the outcome. Each can be brilliant and also make bonehead plays which turn the game on a dime. This very much appears to be a fourth quarter contest, yet the numbers favor the Chargers who are perfect 7-0 ATS in September the last couple years.

GAME TRENDS• SAN DIEGO is 7-0-1 ATS(L3Y) - In September• DETROIT is 0-5 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - 1500 or more travel miles• DETROIT is 5-1 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - AS underdog of 7 or less points

(481) TENNESSEE [SU:2-14 | ATS:3-12-1] AT (482) TAMPA BAY (-3 | 41.5) [SU:2-14 | ATS:7-9]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 4:25 PM on CBS - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TENNESSEE 15.9 16 22-90 [4.1] 32-19-213 [6.7] 19.1 27.4 22 32-137 [4.3] 34-22-236 [6.9] 13.6 -10 -11.5TAMPA BAY 17.3 16 22-86 [3.9] 33-19-206 [6.2] 16.9 25.6 22 29-114 [3.9] 35-24-255 [7.2] 14.4 -8 -8.3

One of two games in which only local fans and football bettors will care about. At least this is a newsworthy battle, with the top two choices in this year’s draft, Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston thought to be squaring off. Both have a long way to go and are playing with teams that have largely inferior talent, albeit still receiving checks as professionals. Sportsbooks have made Tampa Bay a traditional three-point home favorite and Winston has a couple of tall pass-catchers, plus Gerald McCoy and Levonte David on defense. Nonetheless, you have to be a little worried about the Buccaneers being 5-13-1 ATS when listed a home favorite since 2010.

GAME TRENDS• TENNESSEE is 16-8-1 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Non-conference games• TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS(L12G) - VS AFC-SOUTH• TAMPA BAY is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - On grass field

(483) CINCINNATI (-3 | 43.5) [SU:10-6 | ATS:8-8-1] AT (484) OAKLAND [SU:3-13 | ATS:8-8]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 4:25 PM on CBS - O.CO COLISEUM (OAKLAND, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CINCINNATI 22.1 19 30-133 [4.4] 32-20-210 [6.6] 15.5 21.8 21 27-116 [4.3] 38-23-250 [6.5] 16.8 0 +0.3 OAKLAND 15.8 15 21-77 [3.7] 39-23-205 [5.2] 17.8 28.2 20 30-119 [4.0] 34-21-238 [7.1] 12.7 -15 -12.4

Cincinnati lost too many pass receivers at the end of the season and Andy Dalton’s shortcomings were further enhanced. Everyone is back and best guess is the Bengals defense rebounds and is more effective. All the pressure on Andy Dalton to not just win but get to AFC title game. Strangely, Cincy is 1-6 ATS at Oakland. You can see this August some of the changes the Raiders have made and at least their starters will give them a chance to compete, as long as they stop making silly mistakes. Watch second-year QB Derek Carr, who struggled in preseason with accuracy to his left. Oakland is unbelievable 2-22 SU (9-15 ATS) at home last three seasons.

GAME TRENDS• CINCINNATI is 7-1-2 ATS(L10G) - In September• OAKLAND is 2-5 ATS(L7G) at HOME - First game of the season• OAKLAND is 7-3 OVER(L10G) - All Games




NFL MATCHUPS


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(485) BALTIMORE [SU:11-7 | ATS:10-8] AT (486) DENVER (-5 | 49) [SU:12-5 | ATS:8-9]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 4:25 PM on CBS - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BALTIMORE 26.1 22 28-122 [4.4] 35-22-242 [6.9] 13.9 19.7 20 23-83 [3.5] 39-25-261 [6.8] 17.5 +3 +6.4 DENVER 29.1 22 27-110 [4.0] 38-25-286 [7.4] 13.6 22.2 20 22-81 [3.6] 40-25-228 [5.7] 13.9 +6 +6.9

Where the Ravens will end up in the AFC North is largely up for debate, listed in preseason magazines anywhere from first to third, but most sportsbooks have them in the top spot in a hotly contested race. Joe Flacco again will be man the Baltimore offense but it appears thin on the perimeter. The Birds are 8-3 ATS against the Broncos. It happens to everyone, including Peyton Manning, who finally started to show his age dealing with a bad wing late in the season. The Broncos are going to give one more try for Super Bowl ring, yet they are not even a lock for the division anymore. Denver is 16-7 ATS as home favorites with Manning.

GAME TRENDS• DENVER is 4-1 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - VS Opp With 1500 or more travel miles• BALTIMORE is 2-5 ATS(L5Y) - 1000 or more travel miles• DENVER is 6-0 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - VS AFC-NORTH

(487) NY GIANTS [SU:6-10 | ATS:7-9] AT (488) DALLAS (-6 | 51.5) [SU:13-5 | ATS:11-7]SEPTEMBER 13, 2015 8:30 PM on NBC - AT&T STADIUM (ARLINGTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY GIANTS 23.8 21 28-100 [3.6] 38-24-267 [7.0] 15.4 25.0 20 27-135 [4.9] 33-20-241 [7.4] 15.0 -2 -1.2 DALLAS 28.4 21 31-143 [4.6] 29-20-233 [8.0] 13.2 22.1 20 25-103 [4.2] 35-23-258 [7.3] 16.3 +8 +6.3

Classic rivalry for Sunday night opener and might be better game than opening spread indicated. Eli Manning has a truckload of pass catchers and if he’s given time in the pocket, should have success against Dallas secondary without Orlando Scandrick. Chances are the Cowboys will still want to feature a stellar rushing attack, just approach in a different way with a three-headed approach. New York has to hope the defensive line holds up because the Giants are hurting at safety and will be vulnerable deep down the middle or outside the numbers. New York has to be tempting play as long as the line holds since the Cowboys are inconceivable 6-20 ATS as home faves under coach Jason Garrett.

GAME TRENDS• NY GIANTS is 4-2 ATS(L6G) - AT AT&T STADIUM• DALLAS is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME - As favorite• NY GIANTS is 6-0 OVER(L6G) on ROAD - First game of the season

(489) PHILADELPHIA (-3 | 55.5) [SU:10-6 | ATS:9-6-1] AT (490) ATLANTA [SU:6-10 | ATS:7-9]SEPTEMBER 14, 2015 7:10 PM on ESPN - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PHILADELPHIA 29.6 22 30-124 [4.2] 39-24-272 [7.0] 13.4 25.0 21 30-111 [3.7] 37-22-265 [7.2] 15.0 -8 +4.6 ATLANTA 23.8 21 23-94 [4.0] 39-26-285 [7.2] 15.9 26.1 22 28-118 [4.2] 35-22-280 [7.9] 15.2 +5 -2.3

Philadelphia mauled the opposition in first three NFLX games, leaving one to wonder are the Eagles a mirage or being the aggressor like Sean Payton and New Orleans was in 2009 when they did the same thing in Super Bowl season. Philly has talent and if, I’ll say if again, if Sam Bradford can play injury-free, the Eagles will score and now have DeMarcus Murray. For this tilt, watch the play of Philadelphia D-Line who can disrupt so-so Atlanta group up front. Eagles a solid 9-4-1 ATS against Falcons. Some sharps are high on Atlanta to rebound with new head coach, but still appear meager at line of scrimmage. However, dirty Birds are 5-2 ATS as home dogs.

GAME TRENDS• PHILADELPHIA is 12-3 ATS(L15G) on ROAD - On Monday• ATLANTA is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - On non-grass field• ATLANTA is 6-1 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - In September


NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



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Week 1 of the 2015 NFL slate is here. The lines and totals accompanying the games have been out for almost three months, that is aside from the New England-Pittsburgh matchup, on which we were anxiously awaiting the deflategate ruling. For the most part, there have been only subtle line movements since that time. Does that mean oddsmakers have it pegged? Not exactlyuilt upon public sentiment or adjustments the teams have made since they last played. Even the experts make mistakes. They don’t know everything, and they certainly can’t accurately quantify the Week 1 chemistry of the teams. Remember, their job is to try and get as much even action on the various wagering options in a game, not so much to pick the game. Naturally, there can be weak spots then, and savvy bettors who are prepared with both knowledge of the teams and a powerful weapon like systems can be ready to take advantage.

As always, the start of the NFL season is met with much anticipation. That can be a dangerous thing for bettors, as anxious to start the season with a bang, they can too often sink themselves early, particularly if they aren’t using the most updated information to analyze their teams. If you haven’t poured through the preseason publications or the previews by

popular websites, you need to do that before Thursday, or at least by Sunday. Not only have some coaches and players come and gone, some teams have changed schemes, and in general, EVERY one of the 32 teams boasts fresh optimism. They all share the same dream…reaching the postseason.

Many people refer to the acronym NFL as “Not For Long”, as because of salary cap restrictions and free agency, there is more turnover in good teams than in any other sport from season to season. Bookmakers have an advantage when it comes to this, since the media tends to drive the public thinking. Keep in mind, we are not trying to scare you out of betting the Week 1 NFL action, just cautioning you to consider if there are enough valid reasons to lay double-digits, or back a heavy favorite that enjoyed an unusually good season a year ago. Along that same line of thinking, isn’t it reasonable to think that there is no way teams like Chicago or the Giants will be as dismal as in 2014? With thoughts like that in mind, we thought we’d pour over the recent opening week action in the NFL to determine if we can’t gain an edge on the books by picking apart the early thoughts of oddmakers through the use of betting systems.

As you’ll see below, there have been some signifcant systems that have developed in recent opening week action in the NFL. All of them have at least a 61% winning percentage over their lifetime. In each case we’ve tried to provide a reasonable explanation as to why, as well the games that will qualify this coming weekend.

Please note: These systems are sorted by our own personal rating system that factors in net units above zero, winning percentage, R.O.I., and likelihood of the angle occurring again in 2015. Note also, lines used were as of Friday 9/4/15 and may differ slightly at the time of wagering, thus altering the qualification of games in that system. All stats and records noted are based strictly on regular season games of the prior season.

TOP NFL WEEK 1 HISTORICAL SYSTEMS AND QUALIFYING GAMES FOR 2015

(491) MINNESOTA (-2.5 | 41.5) [SU:7-9 | ATS:10-6] AT (492) SAN FRANCISCO [SU:8-8 | ATS:5-10-1]SEPTEMBER 14, 2015 10:20 PM on ESPN - LEVIS STADIUM (SANTA CLARA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MINNESOTA 20.3 18 26-113 [4.4] 32-20-203 [6.3] 15.6 21.4 20 28-121 [4.3] 33-22-223 [6.7] 16.1 -1 -1.1 SAN FRANCISCO 19.1 19 29-136 [4.6] 30-18-191 [6.3] 17.1 21.2 19 25-101 [4.0] 34-20-221 [6.4] 15.2 +7 -2.1

No team has ever hosted a Super Bowl and that streak will continue, as most TV talking heads along with the sharpest experts do not forecast San Francisco pulling into victory lane more than four times in 2015. The personnel losses have been devastating and Jim Tomsula is not making many think of him as the next Bill Walsh. On the other hand, Minnesota is viewed as club on the come, with Mike Zimmer’s aggressive style, which is still calculated. Adrian Peterson might be getting older, but a year off has to refresh his body and Teddy Bridgewater is the future under center. Just the fact a 7-9 Vikings team is favored in Santa Clara tells a big story.

GAME TRENDS• SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS(L10G) - On Monday• MINNESOTA is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - On Monday• SAN FRANCISCO is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) - On grass field

NFL MATCHUPS



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1. Week 1 games with totals of less than 48 points and featuring home teams that won at least 11 games against the spread the prior regular season are 14-1 OVER (93.3%) the total since ‘02 (Win: +12.9 units, R.O.I.: 86%, Rating: 8*)2015 Potential Plays: Play OVER the total in NO-ARZAnalysis: Teams that cover the spread in that many games are typically pretty explosive teams that are riding positive momentum into their season openers. In this case, Arizona isn’t exactly explosive, but New Orleans tends to play into higher scoring games.

2. Week 1 non-divisional conference games featuring a road favorite and a total greater than 41 are 19-2 UNDER (90.5%) the total since ‘99 (Win: +16.8 units, R.O.I.: 80%, Rating: 8*)2015 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in IND-BUF, CIN-OAK, PHI-ATL, & MIN-SFAnalysis: Considering that the home teams in this particular system have scored just 13.0 PPG in the 21 contests, it would seem that these teams are home dogs for a good reason…they can’t can’t score. The result is obvious, UNDER’s.

3. Opening week road underdogs of more than 3 points that won between 4 & 6 games the prior season are 24-7-1 ATS (77.4%) since ‘04 (Win: +16.3 units, R.O.I.: 52.6%, Rating: 7*)2015 Potential Plays: Play on NY GiantsAnalysis: This system has quickly elevated itself to #2 on our list by going 8-1 ATS over the L2 seasons. Unfortunately, only the Giants qualify as they make the trip to Dallas for Sunday Night Football. Typically, these qualifiers are road underdogs that probably experienced some bad fortune last year and are starting with a clean slate and positive momentum now. Again, every season offers fresh optimism.

4. Week 1 home favorites that had a worse record than their opponent the previous season are 29-9-4 ATS (76.3%) since ‘00 (Win: +19.1 units, R.O.I.: 50.2%, Rating: 8*)2015 Potential Plays: Play on NY Jets, San DiegoAnalysis: The 2014 plays in this lucrative system were just 1-1 ATS as Baltimore lost to Cincinnati & Houston beat Washington. Still, the system has provided solid longevity. Two more plays are on tap for 2015 as this is a nice transitional system showing that oddsmakers do get it right many times in analyzing teams’ changes in the offseason.

5. Opening week home favorites hosting teams that were above .500 the prior season are 36-12-3 ATS (75%) since ‘00 (Win: +22.8 units, R.O.I.: 47.5%, Rating: 7*)2015 Potential Plays: Play on New England, Houston, San Diego, DenverAnalysis: This system was just 1-3 ATS last year, or 2-2 ATS if you happened to get in early on Denver. There are four plays to consider once again for 2015. In short, home favorites hosting a quality opponent are likely a very strong team themselves, and opening the season provides extra motivation.

6. Opening week road teams that won between 4 & 6 games the prior season are 31-12-3 ATS (72.1%) since ‘04 (Win: +17.8 units, R.O.I.: 41.3%, Rating: 7*)2015 Potential Plays: Play on NY GiantsAnalysis: Teams in the 4-6 win range usually qualify as potential bounce-back teams the next season, as it’s quite likely they suffered from bad luck or injuries in the previous campaign. The start of the new season offers fresh motivation and momentum. You’ll notice this system is very similar to #2 above, only with no line range qualifier.

7. Week 1 games featuring road teams that scored more than 26 PPG the prior season are 21-8-1 UNDER (72.4%) the total since ‘02 (Win: +12.2 units, R.O.I.: 42.1%, Rating: 7*)2015 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in PIT-NE, SEA-STL, GB-CHI, IND-BUF, BAL-DEN, PHI-ATLAnalysis: Oddsmakers will naturally inflate the totals of returning high scoring offenses. Most often, they are overinflated, as just because a team scores well one season doesn’t mean it will the next. For week 1 of the 2015 season, many of the league’s best offenses from a year ago are on the road, offering up six different plays on this system.

8. Opening week games with road favorites of 3 points or more are 40-16-2 UNDER (71.4%) the total since ‘00 (Win: +22.4 units, R.O.I.: 40%, Rating: 6*)2015 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in GB-CHI, MIA-WAS, CAR-JAX, SEA-STL, CIN-OAK, PHI-ATLAnalysis: In most cases, teams become road favorites in Week 1 because the host team can’t or isn’t expected to score points. Bad offenses = low scores.

9. Week 1 games with totals greater than 44 and featuring home teams that allowed more than 21 PPG the prior season are 37-15 UNDER (71.1%) the total since ‘01 (Win: +20.5 units, R.O.I.: 39.4%, Rating: 6*)2015 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in GB-CHI, DET-SD, BAL-DEN, NYG-DAL, PHI-ATLAnalysis: Score one for the oddsmakers in this case, as most often they are able to accurately identify the host teams that may be improved defensively from one season to the next. A record eight games qualified for this angle in 2014, and those were 4-4 when it was said and done. Perhaps that was overkill. For 2015 there are five such games.

10. Week 1 games with road favorites of 3 points or more and total is 43 or more are 18-6-1 UNDER (75%) since ‘00 (Win: +11.4 units, R.O.I.: 47.5%, Rating: 6*)2015 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in GB-CHI, MIA-WAS, CIN-OAK, PHI-ATLAnalysis: Again, very similar to #7 above, the higher the total, the more chances that these games go UNDER.

11. Week 1 games in which the home favorite won at least four more games than the opponent the prior season are 28-15 OVER (65.1%) the total since ‘00 (Win: +11.5 units,

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R.O.I.: 26.7%, Rating: 5*)2015 Potential Plays: Play OVER the total in NO-ARZ, NYG-DALAnalysis: Host teams in this situation are most often good teams with good offenses. Additionally, being a week 1 game, both teams are healthy.

12. Since ‘06, Week 1 non-conference games with totals of 42.5 or more are 11-2 UNDER (84.6%) (Win: +8.8 units, R.O.I.: 67.7%, Rating: 5*)2015 Potential Plays: Play UNDER the total in MIA-WAS, DET-SDAnalysis: Higher level totals, unfamiliarity in opponent, this has often led to UNDER plays.

13. Week 1 divisional contest road teams that won 6 or fewer games the prior season are 17-7 ATS (70.8%) since ‘01 (Win: +9.3 units, R.O.I.: 38.8%, Rating: 5*)2015 Potential Plays: Play on NY GiantsAnalysis: This system is on at least a 3-game winning streak, with two outright upsets to show for it. Last year, Cleveland didn’t pull out the win, but did get the job done ATS at Pittsburgh. For 2015, only the Giants qualify.

14. Divisional home underdogs are 10-5 SU & 12-3 ATS (80%) in Week 1 since ‘09 (Win: +8.7 units, R.O.I.: 58%, Rating: 5*)2015 Potential Plays: Play on Chicago, St. LouisAnalysis: There isn’t a whole lot more motivating than an opening week contest at home against a targeted team in the division. In most cases, the road favorite in this scenario is a returning playoff team, while the home dog is an aspiring one. As you can see, over the last six years, the aspiring team has enjoyed plenty of success and a great start to the season.

15. Bettors are 29-16 (64.4%) when moving opening totals more than two points in Week 1 since ‘04 (Win: +11.5 units, R.O.I.: 25.5%, Rating: 4*)2015 Potential Plays: (CHECK CLOSING TOTALS AGAINST OPENERS AT KICKOFF) Play UNDER the total in KC-HOU, SEA-STL, BAL-DEN, and Play OVER the total in NYG-DAL & ATL-PHIAnalysis: Week 1 NFL lines are hammered on by bettors for almost three months, and they have been good at dissecting totals. Last year, bettors pegged the Houston-Washington game accurately, sending the opening total of 46 down to 43.5 at game time. You won’t know wthese plays specifically until just before kickoff.

16. Home teams have won the L12 season opener weeknight games, going 8-2-2 ATS (80%) (Win: +5.8 units, R.O.I.: 58%, Rating: 4*)2015 Potential Plays: Play on New EnglandAnalysis: The tradition of this game pits the defending Super Bowl champion as the home team. Last year, Seattle hosted Green Bay. The Seahawks dominated. In this year’s game, the Patriots, with a Super Championship to celebrate and with a chip on their shoulder from an offseason of chaos, host the Steelers.

17. Week 1 non-divisional conference road favorites are 14-7 ATS (66.7%) since ‘99 (Win: +6.3 units, R.O.I.: 30%, Rating: 4*)2015 Potential Plays: Play on IND, CIN, PHI, & MINAnalysis: If you refer back to #2, this same set of circumstances affects the totals. However, if you recall, the host teams in this particular system have scored just 13.0 PPG in the 21 contests. Historically, these home dogs are not good offensive teams. Pretty easy to see why the road favorites have ATS success.

18. Week 1 games featuring road teams that allowed more than 25.5 PPG the prior season are 21-13 OVER (61.7%) the total since ‘02 (Win: +6.7 units, R.O.I.: 19.7%, Rating: 4*)2015 Potential Plays: Play OVER the total in NO-ARZ, TEN-TBAnalysis: Defenses that allow that many points typically require a complete overhaul, a difficult task in the span of six months. Starting the season on the road only heightens the chances of a relapse.

19. Non-conference road underdogs of 3 to 6.5 points are 9-4-5 ATS (69.2%) in Week 1 since ‘00 (Win: +4.6 units, R.O.I.: 35.4%, Rating: 4*)2015 Potential Plays: NONEAnalysis: Amazingly, five of the L18 games in this system have resulted in a push on the spread. Last year’s games were 2-1, with Buffalo pulling an outright upset in Chicago. It’s hard to beat an unfamiliar foe, particularly when an unfriendly pointspread is attached.

20. Divisional home favorites of 3 points or less are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in Week 1 since ‘01 (Win: +5.6 units, R.O.I.: 40%, Rating: 4*)2015 Potential Plays: NONEAnalysis: A lot of motivation can come from hosting early divisional games with such a short schedule in the NFL. These small home favorites are also motivated by small pointspreads.

21. Week 1 hosts that averaged more than 28.5 PPG the prior season are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS (66.7%) since ‘01 (Win: +3.6 units, R.O.I.: 30%, Rating: 4*) 2015 Potential Plays: Play on New England, Dallas, Denver Analysis: Great offense, starting the season at home. These teams seem to pick up right where they left off.

22. Double-digit road underdogs are 3-9 SU but 8-4 ATS (66.7%) in Week 1 since ‘00 (Win: +3.6 units, R.O.I.: 30%, Rating: 4*)2015 Potential Plays: NONEAnalysis: Laying double-digits this early with any team just doesn’t make sense, as every team starts with a fresh slate and believes it has a shot at the postseason at this point, even the worst underdog. As of presstime, no games had anything close to a double-digit pointspread for week 1 of 2015.

Good luck with your plays and enjoy NFL Kickoff 2015!


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VI Jim 9-1 (90%) 3-0 (100%)*

VI Jason 6-4 (60%)1-2 (33%)*

VI Doug 2-8 (20%) 1-2 (33%)*

Power Ratings8-2 (80%)

Effective Strength 7-3 (70%)

Forecaster 4-6 (40%)

Bettors Ratings 5-5 (50%)

Consensus 7-3 (70%)

Thursday, September 10, 2015 - (301) LOUISIANA TECH at (302) W KENTUCKY (0)W

Kentucky

W

Kentucky*

W

Kentucky

Louisiana

Tech

Louisiana

Tech

W

Kentucky

W

Kentucky

W Kentucky

Friday, September 11, 2015 - (305) UTAH ST at (306) UTAH (-13.5)Utah St Utah St Utah St Utah Utah Utah St Utah Utah St

Saturday, September 12, 2015 - (317) HOUSTON at (318) LOUISVILLE (-12.5)Louisville Houston Louisville Louisville Louisville Houston Houston Louisville

Saturday, September 12, 2015 - (323) LSU at (324) MISSISSIPPI ST (+4)LSU* LSU LSU* Mississippi

St

Mississippi

St

LSU Mississippi

St

LSU

Saturday, September 12, 2015 - (345) OREGON ST at (346) MICHIGAN (-15)Michigan Oregon St Michigan* Michigan Michigan Oregon St Oregon St Michigan

Saturday, September 12, 2015 - (355) IOWA at (356) IOWA ST (+3.5)Iowa Iowa Iowa St Iowa St Iowa St Iowa St Iowa St Iowa St

Saturday, September 12, 2015 - (371) ARIZONA at (372) NEVADA (+11)Arizona* Arizona* Nevada Arizona Arizona Nevada Arizona Arizona

Saturday, September 12, 2015 - (383) OKLAHOMA at (384) TENNESSEE (0)Tennessee Tennessee Oklahoma* Tennessee Oklahoma Tennessee Oklahoma Tennessee

Saturday, September 12, 2015 - (391) OREGON at (392) MICHIGAN ST (-4)Oregon* Oregon Michigan

St

Oregon Oregon Michigan

St

Oregon Oregon

Saturday, September 12, 2015 - (399) UCF at (400) STANFORD (-19)Stanford Stanford* Stanford UCF UCF UCF UCF UCF

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

VI Jim says…Michigan State played pretty well for about three quarters last year at Eugene yet still came up on the short end of a 46-27 decision. There was simply too much team speed for the Ducks, as is typical when you match a Big Ten team against an opponent known for its speed and athleticism. There are a few big differences from last year’s game to this one…first, Michigan State is at home, that should help a little. Second, Marcus Mariota is off to the NFL. Still, Vernon Adams (and the Oregon run game) was pretty darn good last week. Finally, and most important, the Spartans are favored this time by 4-points, not a 13-point dog. Taking into account a generous shift of 9 points for the switch of venues, is this line saying that there has been an 8.5-point shift in the quality of the teams this year? I don’t buy it, Oregon wins.

VI Jason says…I wouldn’t put too much stock into Arizona’s “struggles” in beating UTSA last week. I can assure you that the Wildcats are not a team you are going to want to be laying 33+ points with very often if ever. This week’s line at Nevada (-11) is much more in Arizona’s comfort zone and Nevada’s offense is inexperienced enough where it won’t be able to keep up in this game. Plus, with the injury to stud LB Scooby Wright, the Wildcats actually have something more to play for this week and for the near future. QB Anu Solomon had a nice game against UTSA, throwing for four scores, and it didn’t even feel like a breakout game. Against Nevada, it will be a breakout game. Arizona rolls to an easy win, 45-24.

VI Doug says…LSU having a game under their belts would be a help as they prepare for Mississippi State on the road. But weather prevented that from happening and maiden voyage goes this week. The Bulldogs have Dak Prescott and a host of other brand new faces on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs won at Baton Rouge last year, but that was with a more experienced team against a youthful bunch of Tigers. LSU is more seasoned and their greatest strength in this matchup has been the ability to play more physical and they will have that edge in this one. Tigers also have confidence, being 10-1 SU and ATS in Starksville. LSU by 8.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL VI PICKS

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Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season.

The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?301 LOUISIANA TECH 62 45 32.8 29.9 28.2 302 W KENTUCKY 0 41 0.8 29.8 31.0 30.3 303 MIAMI FL -17.5 48 37.7 32.0 32.7 UNDER304 FLA ATLANTIC 55 29 16.5 18.9 22.9 FAU 15.8 305 UTAH ST 44 42 16.4 OVER 17.7 17.5 OVER306 UTAH -13.5 52 -13.5 32.5 27.7 34.0 307 SOUTH FLORIDA 53 32 11.8 16.1 USF 5.9 308 FLORIDA ST -27.5 58 -29.8 41.7 36.6 43.7 FSU 309 W MICHIGAN -4 39 29.4 25.8 UNDER 28.0 310 GA SOUTHERN 56.5 35 3.0 25.7 22.6 27.1 311 BUFFALO 49.5 29 14.7 16.5 BUF 14.9 312 PENN ST -20 46 -20.5 37.7 31.9 37.1 313 ARMY 47 23 22.7 OVER 22.6 17.7 314 CONNECTICUT -7.5 26 -6.5 29.5 26.9 27.7 315 EAST CAROLINA 53.5 37 18.5 18.3 21.6 ECU316 FLORIDA -20 50 -18.5 37.6 34.4 36.1 317 HOUSTON 54 39 20.6 21.6 18.4 UNDER318 LOUISVILLE -12.5 49 -13.3 36.1 31.6 27.6 319 FRESNO ST 54 32 9.6 11.4 20.6 FRST320 OLE MISS -28.5 59 -30.0 45.4 MISS 38.6 43.6 OVER 321 TEMPLE 51.5 43 25.4 26.7 TEM 30.0 OVER322 CINCINNATI -6.5 44 -4.3 28.1 25.7 32.1 323 LSU -4 59 27.8 28.1 27.1 324 MISSISSIPPI ST 49.5 52 3.8 25.2 22.5 25.6 325 MIAMI OHIO 53 23 10.5 11.6 MOH 9.2 326 WISCONSIN -32.5 52 -33.8 41.3 38.2 44.7 327 KANSAS ST -17 51 KST 38.1 KST 28.1 35.5 328 TX-SAN ANTONIO 52 25 23.0 10.6 19.6 UTSA 20.6 329 MARSHALL -3.5 44 32.2 MAR 26.5 UNDER 31.8 330 OHIO U 61.5 34 5.8 24.2 UNDER 29.0 OHIO 29.1 331 HAWAII 59.5 32 7.9 10.3 HAW 8.7 UNDER332 OHIO ST -40 67 -40.5 49.1 44.3 UNDER 46.1 333 WAKE FOREST 44 35 19.1 21.3 18.2 334 SYRACUSE -4.5 38 -4.5 23.0 22.2 24.8 335 APPALACHIAN ST 58.5 38 21.0 23.6 APST 16.9 336 CLEMSON -17 54 -19.8 37.6 32.9 43.7 CLEM 337 MISSOURI -10.5 52 MIS 34.6 30.2 30.0 UNDER338 ARKANSAS ST 59.5 32 16.8 21.6 26.5 AST 18.6 339 E MICHIGAN 54.5 17 20.1 22.8 EMU 17.8 UNDER340 WYOMING -13 25 -11.5 35.4 31.3 31.5 341 MASSACHUSETTS 63 30 25.1 26.5 23.0 UNDER342 COLORADO -13 41 -14.5 36.1 36.5 34.9 343 MINNESOTA -6 47 32.4 OVER 28.0 27.4 344 COLORADO ST 53.5 36 7.0 27.7 26.0 27.5 CST

VEGASINSIDER COLLEGE FOOTBALL STRENGTH RATINGS


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BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?345 OREGON ST 48 38 16.4 16.2 20.6 OVER346 MICHIGAN -15 49 -15.0 33.1 29.7 33.2 347 TULANE 54.5 30 13.2 15.5 TUL 12.3 348 GEORGIA TECH -28.5 57 -30.3 43.0 37.5 40.0 349 GEORGIA -19.5 60 40.0 GEO 34.0 33.6 350 VANDERBILT 52 38 18.5 15.8 20.4 VAN 22.1 VAN 351 BOISE ST -3 51 29.2 OVER 28.3 OVER 26.9 352 BYU 54.5 46 1.3 31.1 BYU 31.9 BYU 29.1 BYU 353 NOTRE DAME -11.5 54 30.0 25.6 32.0 354 VIRGINIA 47.5 42 9.3 21.3 22.0 VIR 19.2 355 IOWA -3.5 45 27.0 25.5 22.9 UNDER356 IOWA ST 52 39 2.8 26.4 27.4 IST 23.3 357 SAN DIEGO ST 61 39 19.9 19.3 UNDER 25.0 358 CALIFORNIA -12.5 48 -12.0 38.0 CAL 34.3 40.2 359 MEMPHIS -13.5 45 38.2 MEM 31.6 UNDER 31.4 360 KANSAS 57.5 26 16.0 17.0 21.4 22.1 361 TOLEDO 54 39 16.7 21.0 TOL 18.0 362 ARKANSAS -22 58 -22.3 40.6 33.7 39.2 363 MIDDLE TENN ST 56.5 36 13.4 MTSU 13.8 MTSU 14.7 MTSU364 ALABAMA -34 65 -33.0 42.6 41.8 40.6 365 SAN JOSE ST 58 34 22.0 UNDER 24.4 UNDER 25.0 366 AIR FORCE -6.5 38 -7.8 29.0 27.7 30.5 367 PITTSBURGH -12.5 46 35.2 30.7 32.1 368 AKRON 51 29 14.3 19.7 22.0 19.2 369 BOWLING GREEN 68.5 34 23.9 UNDER 30.0 23.3 UNDER370 MARYLAND -7.5 41 -9.8 38.7 MAR 35.1 33.5 371 ARIZONA -11 52 ARI 34.8 UNDER 29.2 UNDER 40.4 OVER372 NEVADA 62 32 16.8 21.9 27.3 NEV 28.4 373 KENTUCKY 57 44 28.2 OVER 27.7 20.9 374 SOUTH CAROLINA -7.5 49 -10.0 33.6 32.9 33.7 SC 375 NORTH TEXAS 58 27 33.1 NT 29.9 NT 25.1 376 SMU -4.5 24 -0.8 26.3 28.5 32.6 377 BALL ST 63.5 34 16.7 19.9 BST 17.9 OVER378 TEXAS A&M -30 56 -25.8 45.1 43.0 50.3 379 UTEP 66 28 23.6 UTEP 22.1 UTEP 21.1 380 TEXAS TECH -20 45 -21.3 35.9 UNDER 35.4 UNDER 46.3 TT 381 WASHINGTON ST 62 39 30.1 30.9 30.3 382 RUTGERS -2 40 -4.3 31.4 30.5 33.1 383 OKLAHOMA 61.5 57 31.7 26.8 UNDER 29.3 UNDER384 TENNESSEE 0 56 -1.5 27.8 28.7 27.8 385 RICE 51 35 15.2 18.2 15.6 386 TEXAS -15.5 50 -18.3 36.4 TEX 30.4 32.5 387 GEORGIA ST 63.5 19 GST 29.1 29.9 33.3 GAST388 NEW MEXICO ST -6.5 16 0.8 31.8 32.2 30.2 389 S ALABAMA 54 22 11.9 16.2 SA 13.5 390 NEBRASKA -26.5 48 -29.0 42.4 36.2 39.3 391 OREGON 67 62 31.1 23.3 UNDER 33.9 ORE392 MICHIGAN ST -4 59 -0.3 33.3 34.0 MST 30.5 393 FLA INTERNATIONAL 55 33 23.5 25.8 FIU 21.1 394 INDIANA -7.5 39 -9.0 30.6 28.3 33.1 IND 395 IDAHO 66 19 7.4 UNDER 13.0 IDA 14.3 OVER396 USC -43.5 60 -44.5 53.2 51.0 56.8 397 TULSA 72 29 31.6 32.7 30.5 398 NEW MEXICO -4 32 -5.3 41.6 NM 37.3 39.6 NM 399 UCF 43.5 39 15.1 UCF 14.9 UCF 14.0 UCF400 STANFORD -19 53 -17.5 29.5 27.9 28.3 401 UCLA -29 56 46.0 UNDER 42.2 47.6 402 UNLV 64.5 22 30.8 12.8 20.2 UNLV 20.2

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For every issue of the Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming college football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

SEPT. 10, 2015(301) LOUISIANA TECH at (302) WESTERN KENTUCKYThe only game last season in which Western Kentucky scored fewer than 35 points was when they were held to 10, in 59-10 thrashing at Louisiana Tech. This could be the first of two meetings this season. (C-USA title game) Obviously the Hilltoppers will be fired up to seek revenge but the Bulldogs are a sharp 9-0 ATS in the first of two road games.

SEPT. 11, 2015(303) MIAMI-FL at (304) FLORIDA ATLANTICThe Hurricanes make the 51-mile trip over to Boca Raton to face a nearby neighbor for a second time. Two years ago Miami won 34-6 as 31-point home favorites. The Canes are 3-7 SU and ATS in road openers, however, this will the easiest opponent in that stretch. This will be the Owls first home game and they are 5-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2012.

(305) UTAH STATE at (306) UTAHThis is the 112th meeting in the Beehive State, though have taken two of the last four years off, mostly because of the Pac-12’s nine game conference schedule. Recent meetings have altered the course for the visiting team who was 8-1-1 ATS before losing the last two. No patterns to favorite/underdog, however, the Over has gotten the money five of six times.

SEPT. 12, 2015(307) SOUTH FLORIDA at (308) FLORIDA STATEThere have two other tilts in the Sunshine State matchup, both with surprising results. In 2009, South Florida went to Tallahassee and upset Florida State 17-7 as 13.5-point underdogs. Three years later the Bulls were hosts and covered the oddsmakers +16.5 points , losing 30-17. Both those games were Under’s and it would be no surprise if this was too.

(309) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (310) GEORGIA SOUTHERNGeorgia Southern’s opening salvo in the FBS was huge success at 9-3 and 7-5 ATS and they

will look to stay unbeaten at this level at home (5-0, 3-2 ATS) with up and coming Western Michigan visiting. Broncos coach P.J. Fleck has turned his team into a tough out on the road at 8-3 ATS as visiting underdogs in his first two seasons.

(311) BUFFALO at (312) PENN STATEThese Eastern-based universities have collided before, eight years ago, with Penn State victorious 45-24 as 34.5-point favorites. The sportsbooks number will not be as high this time, though the Nittany Lions are 28-19 ATS as double digit favorites the past 10 years. Out of conference games have not worked well for Buffalo at 13-29 and 18-23-1 against the spread.

(313) ARMY at (314) CONNECTICUTAfter playing four straight times from 2003-06, these schools resumed play last year. UConn probably wished they had not, losing 35-21 as five points favorites, ending their four-game winning and cover streak. The Huskies are presumed to be a favorite for a six consecutive time against an Army bunch that is unfathomable 0-20 and 1-19 ATS away the last four years.

(315) EAST CAROLINA at (316) FLORIDAQuick turnaround for these competitors, having met in the Birmingham Bowl in early January, which was only prior contest. Florida ousted East Carolina 28-20 as a touchdown favorite, but needed an end zone interception to seal it. Even off a couple bad years in 2012-13, the Gators are 29-16-1 ATS the past decade out of conference. East Carolina is 7-10 ATS as road dogs under coach McNeill.

(317) HOUSTON at (318) LOUISVILLEThis conflict involves two squads who used to meet regularly in Conference USA, but both have moved on. They reignited the battle two years ago, with Louisville the victor 20-13 as 17-point home favorites. That cover evened the series up at 3-3 ATS since 2000, with the visitor 4-2 ATS. Could be flat spot for Cardinals off Auburn game and Clemson up on Thursday.

(319) FRESNO STATE at (320) MISSISSIPPIThis will be the third meeting since 2010 and the second in Oxford. Ole Miss beat the spread both times, by scores of 38-28 and 55-38 respectively, yet were only -4 and -2.5 point favorites. This time the line will be higher, though the Rebels are 11-4-1 ATS out of conference under coach Freeze. Fresno State is 19-11 ATS as away dogs since 2005. (321) TEMPLE at (322) CINCINNATIThe Owls thorny defense gave Cincinnati fits last year, but it did not stop the Bearcats from winning 14-6 as touchdown faves, well below the total of 58. That made it five straight for Cincy. What matters here is beating the number and road club is perfect 5-0 ATS. Cincinnati has and will be favored again, with the Over still at 3-2 ATS in these contests.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


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(323) LSU at (324) MISSISSIPPI STATEMississippi State had lost 14 in a row (3-11 ATS) to LSU before engineering 34-29 upset at Baton Rouge as seven digit underdogs. The Bulldogs next streak to end is seven straight setbacks at Starksville (2-5 ATS). Since 2004, points have not been hard to come by as the SEC division rivals have gone over the total in nine of last 11.

(325) MIAMI-O at (326) WISCONSINFirst ever gathering in this MAC-Big Ten clash and it will be the first of four consecutive home contests for Wisconsin, who has won 19 straight lid-lifters at Camp Randall with dismal 6-12 ATS record. Miami-O has enjoyed one winning season in nine years (2010). Despite 0-6 road mark a year ago, the Redhawks did cover five of six games played.

(327) KANSAS STATE at (328) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIOCoach Bill Snyder has been known for years for teddy bear like nonconference slates and scheduling this road game the year after UTSA graduated its first true senior class (played all four years) does not seem like an accident. Kansas State is only 18-29 ATS in nonconference action under Snyder. The Roadrunners are quality 5-1 as a home team catching points.

(329) MARSHALL at (330) OHIO U.This encounter was a regular occurrence until Marshall left the MAC in 2004. But fate brought them together in the 2009 Little Ceasar’s Bowl and they have met ever since. This confrontation has always been about the home team, who is 8-2 ATS since 2000, including take the past four. Ohio has a 7-4 ATS edge in that span with the Under 6-1-2 in last nine.

(331) HAWAI’I at (332) OHIO STATESure seems like a long way for Hawai’i to travel to get their butts kicked. While Columbus does not compare to Honolulu, is the home of the top-ranked team. Ohio State looks to begin a new streak after Virginia Tech snapped their 35-game home opening game winning streak and they are 43-28 ATS at home since 2005. Hawai’i is .500 ATS as road dogs since ‘05.

(333) WAKE FOREST at (334) SYRACUSESomething about this game that still does not scream ACC football. Nevertheless, Syracuse has won and covered each of the last two years by a combined 43-7. In all, the Orange have covered the last four splitting the games in ‘06 and ‘11. Thus, in the four matchups, the favorite and Under is 3-1 and chances are the latter will happen again with these offenses.

(335) APPALACHIAN STATE at (336) CLEMSONMany might not realize these two have met four prior times when Appalachian State was still playing what was called D-1A football. Clemson for years has been a mediocre double digit favorite at 27-26 ATS and with a road game at Louisville next Thursday, not sure what to expect. The Mountaineers are 5-6-1 ATS since as road dogs since 2009.

(337) MISSOURI at (338) ARKANSAS STATEThis is the second home and home series with these regional area universities. Missouri has won all three games since 2004, including last one at home 41-19 as 23-point home favorites. However, Arkansas State cashed that betting ticket and one more to snag a 2-1 spread record. While the totals sample in extremely small, the Over is 2-1 all told.

(339) EASTERN MICHIGAN at (340) WYOMINGJust guessing, but probably no direct flights from Ypilanti to Laramie for this first time encounter. Eastern Michigan last enjoyed a winning season in 1995 and are one of the most dormant programs in the country, with a 9-58 (29-36-2 ATS) road record since 2005. Wyoming rises up every now and again (8-5 2011) and is only 23-35-1 ATS at home the past decade.

(341) MASSACHUSETTS at (342) COLORADOThis could be the last ever meeting as UMass could return to FCS football after this season. The Minutemen’s outstanding passing attack gave Colorado fits last season, as the Buffaloes escaped 41-38 as 17.5-point favorites. UMass will have to play at altitude where Colorado and Ralphie (the real buffalo) are 13-9 ATS at home favorite in the last 10 years.

(343) MINNESOTA at (344) COLORADO STATEThis twosome hooked up back in 2004-05 for a home and home battle, with Minnesota the favorite each time and SU and spread winner. The Golden Gophers took the first game 34-16 at Fort Collins as 5.5-point favorites and rode the Rams hard in the land of 10,000 lakes, 56-24 as two-touchdown choice. Minnesota could be flat after TCU tussle at home.

(345) OREGON STATE at (346) MICHIGANThis will be a big deal in Ann Arbor, the home debut of Jim Harbaugh as coach after a fine career as a player. Though he coached in the Big Ten, new Oregon State coach Gary Anderson never went to the Big House. All-time, Michigan is 4-0 over the Beavers, yet is only 27-31 ATS at home faves lately. OSU is 23-12 ATS as away underdogs.

(347) TULANE at (348) GEORGIA TECHComing off their first bowl game in 11 years, Tulane thought they had a chance to upset Georgia Tech at home as seven-point home underdogs last year. However, the Yellow Jackets offense had too much sting and they won 38-21. Georgia Tech will try and improve on pedestrian nonconference spread record (22-22-2) with the Green Wave 7-8-1 ATS as away pooches.

(349) GEORGIA at (350) VANDERBILTWhile Georgia clearly has the better program, the Bulldogs have not always taken Vanderbilt all that seriously leading to 2-6 ATS mark since 2006. The Commodores got the cover last season, which broke a string of four in a row by the home team. No particular pattern on the total, with the Under having a smallish 8-6 edge in last 14.

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(351) BOISE STATE at (352) BYUNo matter what eventually happens with BYU as an independent, this is one skirmish which should continue. They have met each of the last three years and the past two of been one way blowouts for each home team. Prior to that the visitor was sharp 3-0 ATS, winning once outright. Four of the five contests have seen totals of 54 or higher.

(353) NOTRE DAME at (354) VIRGINIAOnly previous meeting between these teams was in the 1989 Kickoff Classic, the following season of Notre Dame’s last national championship. Virginia will be jacked for this one and is 9-3 (6-5-1 ATS) in home openers the past 12 years. This the Fighting Irish initial away game and they are only 8-11-1 against the sportsbooks as visiting favorites since 2005.

(355) IOWA at (356) IOWA STATEIn the Hawkeye State, this is a way bigger game for the team from Ames and that is proven by the fact Iowa State is 11-4 ATS since 2000. This has largely been a competitive rivalry with the past four games decided by 15 total points. The road team and underdog are on 3-0 ATS mini-runs, the Under 8-2 going back 10 years.

(357) SAN DIEGO STATE at (358) CALIFORNIAIt was 19 years ago the last time these Cali clubs clashed with the Golden Bears winning 43-37 as field goal favorites. California appears to be a program on the rise, but San Diego State is no slouch, the betting choice to win their division in the Mountain West. Cal is just 2-7 ATS as home faves lately, while the Aztecs are 7-6 ATS as away underdogs.

(359) MEMPHIS at (360) KANSASNew Kansas coach Dave Beaty second game will be against a team the Jayhawks have never faced on gridiron. Kansas was 4-2 ATS at home last season and goes against a Memphis squad off stunning 10-3 (6-4-1 ATS) campaign. Coach Justin Fuente is in his fourth season in the land of barbecue and his Tigers are 9-4-1 ATS in nonconference action.

(361) TOLEDO at (362) ARKANSASIt is a given Arkansas will want its Hogs (linemen in this case) to pound away at Toledo in this initial meeting. Bret Bielema loves to run the ball and his Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS as home favorites. Toledo can score and will probably need to because Arkansas will be leaning heavily on their defense. The Rockets are super 8-3 ATS dressed up as dogs.

(363) MID. TENNESSEE ST. at (364) ALABAMAHard to imagine the Crimson Tide playing the Blue Raiders, even though it’s not that many years ago. Back in 2005, Alabama took down Middle Tennessee State 26-7 as 21.5-point favorites and three years prior got a real scare, surviving 39-34 as 17-point home favorite. Bama is 25-19 against the number when handing out 20 or more points since 2006.

(365) SAN JOSE STATE at (366) AIR FORCEAs former partners in the WAC, these two collided in 1996-97. Air Force flew by San Jose State in Colorado Springs 45-0 as 22-point favorites, bur were ambushed the following season 25-22 by the Spartans as 15-digit road faves. The Falcons are below normal 17-22 ATS at home the last 10 years, while San Jose State is 0-6 ATS as road dogs since last year.

(367) PITTSBURGH at (368) AKRONPittsburgh suffered embarrassing loss to Akron last season, falling 21-10 as 20.5-point home chalk. With the playmakers the Panthers have, you would think they would seek revenge ,but a new coaching again (4th in six years) could slow progress. Terry Bowden (remember him) is the Akron head coach and his teams are undesirable 2-7 ATS catching points at home.

(369) BOWLING GREEN at (370) MARYLANDThis is the second of three home games to start the year for Maryland, who has been a major disappointment under coach Randy Edsall at 21-30 SU. The Terps have also been a crummy home favorite beyond Edsall’s four years at 13-20 ATS. This is Bowling Green’s second straight away outing, but they are stellar 23-16-1 ATS as road underdogs.

(371) ARIZONA at (372) NEVADAArizona’s defense gave up an unimpressive 32 points at home to inexperienced UTSA offense last week and goes on the road against a nonconference foe who has pushed them. Nevada lost but covered both games against the Wildcats, losing by one in the 2012 New Mexico Bowl and slipping by just seven as 20-point road dogs last year. Could be close one in Reno.

(373) KENTUCKY at (374) SOUTH CAROLINASouth Carolina allowed 440 yards to North Carolina but just 13 points in their opening victory. The Gamecocks are home to open SEC action against Kentucky, whom they hold a seven-game winning streak against (4-3 ATS). The Wildcats are 4-2 ATS the last six years. Look for points, with the Over on a 8-0 run and 9-1 since 2005.

(375) NORTH TEXAS at (376) SMULone Star State action for the fourth time in the last nine years. North Texas has gotten the cash all three times, winning twice. A season ago in Denton, the Mean Green gobbled up the Cowboys 43-6 as field goal faves. The SMU program looks in tatters again and it’s not guaranteed they will be a home favorite in C-USA opener with 25-33 ATS home record.

(377) BALL STATE at (378) TEXAS A&MThis is the Aggies first home assignment and they will be chalky home favorites at Kyle Field. In spite of the perceived notion Texas A&M has a great home field edge, they are .500 (24-24) as spread favorites since ‘05. This is the first of three consecutive roadies for Ball State and they do not mind the road, posting a 12-5 ATS record as visiting underdogs.


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(379) UTEP at (380) TEXAS TECHDespite being a favorite in each of the last three matchups with UTEP, Texas Tech has let the Miners get digging until they covered the spread each time. This is the fourth gathering in 10 seasons and with the Red Raiders having Arkansas and TCU on deck, it would appear UTEP would be worth a look. Texas Tech is 14-21-2 ATS as home favorites since 2006.

(381) WASHINGTON STATE at (382) RUTGERSLong flight for Washington State in return game from last season when Rutgers flew cross-country. The Scarlet Knights won a thriller in Seattle, 41-38 on the receiving end of 7.5 point. Rutgers is just 22-22 ATS as home fave recently. Cougars coach Mike Leach has lost the magic touch, nonetheless, Wazzou is 7-2 ATS as road dogs the past two years.

(383) OKLAHOMA at (384) TENNESSEEThis will be Oklahoma’s first-ever visit to Rocky Top and chances are it will not be as easy as last year’s 34-10 drubbing as 21-point favorites. Tennessee is on the rise under Butch Jones and can win the contest. For the first time in years the Sooners are under the radar in the Big 12 and if underdogs, they are 9-4 ATS with Coach Stoops.

(385) RICE at (386) TEXASTwo former Big 8 rivals who faced off annually for years. This has been one-sided as it gets with Texas on a 12-0 run (8-4 ATS) and 40-1 SU the last 49 years. Needless to say the Longhorns have been a favorite and that is where the money has tracked. The average score differential since 2000 has been 45.5 to 10.8, advantage Texas.

(387) GEORGIA STATE at (388) NEW MEXICO ST.New Mexico State does not win often on the road (7 of last 61) but they did at Georgia State last year, 34-31 as three-point underdogs. That was only the Panthers second year in FBS football and now makes the trip to Las Cruces, being 0-11 and 2-8-1 ATS on the road. The Aggies have not won more than one conference game in nine years.

(389) SOUTH ALABAMA at (390) NEBRASKAIt is Game 2 of the Mike Riley for Nebraska and one aspect Big Red bettors want to see him change is home favorite spread record. In the past 11 seasons Nebraska is 30-34 ATS and like most major programs, the alumni love to bet on their teams as favorites. This is South Alabama’s fourth year in FBS and is representative 9-7 ATS as away dogs.

(391) OREGON at (392) MICHIGAN STATELast year’s conflict saw Oregon jump to big lead, Michigan State rally and the Ducks

pull away to 46-27 win as 14-point favorites. The setting moves to East Lansing where the Spartans have the more experienced offense, yet are only 5-11-2 ATS vs. ranked foes. Oregon might be vulnerable here, still, they are 14-3 ATS on the road the last four years.

(393) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL at (394) INDIANANice road upset last week by FIU, winning at Central Florida 15-14 as 11-point underdogs. They look to make two straight at Indiana and better 6-5 ATS mark as road dogs under coach Ron Turner. Hoosiers coach Kevin Wilson at 15-34 (21-28 ATS) needs a winning season or is likely done in Bloomington. He’s 8-9 ATS out of league play in four years.

(395) IDAHO at (396) USCEight years ago the Men of Troy played host to the Vandals as 47.5-point favorites and never sniffed covering that gigantic figure in 38-10 rout. That is not uncharacteristic of USC, as they are 12-18-1 ATS as favorites of 20+ points in 10 seasons. This is hardly unfamiliar territory for Idaho, with a 15-23 ATS mark as 20 or more point underdogs.

(397) TULSA at (398) NEW MEXICOEarlier this century Tulsa had a solid football program, but after two dismal seasons, a coaching change occurred. Phil Montgomery will take the Golden Hurricane to New Mexico for the second time in six years after his school nailed the Lobos in back to back years 56-14 (-10.5) and 44-10 (-16.5). Watch the line, home team is 6-2 ATS as faves and 3-8 ATS as dogs.

(399) CENTRAL FLORIDA at (400) STANFORDIf Central Florida cannot beat Florida International at home, what chance to they have going cross-country to The Farm to upset Stanford? Probably not much, though under coach George O’Leary they are 21-16 ATS as away underdogs. Coming off a five-loss campaign the Cardinal have a lot to prove, yet are only 13-12 ATS as home faves with coach David Shaw.

(401) UCLA at (402) UNLVHead coach Tony Sanchez was coaching high school football in Sin City a year ago and now will make his home debut with UNLV. We’re sure he would have appreciated a lesser opponent, nevertheless, those before him were 25-16-1 ATS as home underdogs. UCLA has a great deal of talent on this squad, yet Jim Mora and the Bruins are only 5-5 ATS as road favorites.

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(301) LOUISIANA TECH [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (302) W KENTUCKY (PK | 62) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]

SEPTEMBER 10, 2015 8:00 PM on FOX1 - LT SMITH STADIUM (BOWLING GREEN, KY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LOUISIANA TECH 62.0 21 32-207 [6.5] 29-21-380 [13.1] 9.5 15.0 17 32-113 [3.5] 36-19-187 [5.2] 20.0 +1 +47.0 W KENTUCKY 14.0 11 22-38 [1.7] 30-19-209 [7.0] 17.6 12.0 20 42-176 [4.2] 34-18-217 [6.4] 32.8 +3 +2.0

Big matchup between the two teams expected to win each division in Conference USA. This conflict will feature arguably the two best quarterbacks in the league in Brandon Doughty from Western Kentucky and Florida transfer Jeff Driskel for Louisiana Tech. Both have a lot of offensive weapons that can do damage and higher scoring game will be expected. The Hilltoppers are playing into serious revenge having lost 59-10 at Ruston last year. At first glance it is a bit of shock to see Western Kentucky as such a small home favorite, but the fact is the Bulldogs have a very good club and has covered 12 of their last 15 games and can match the Hilltoppers firepower.

GAME TRENDS• LOUISIANA TECH is 9-1 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - In September• W KENTUCKY is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Conference games• LOUISIANA TECH is 9-1 OVER(L10G) - Against elite defensive teams allowing less than 17.5

PPG(CS)

(303) MIAMI FL (-17.5 | 55) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (304) FLA ATLANTIC [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-0-1]SEPTEMBER 11, 2015 8:00 PM on FOX1 - FAU FOOTBALL STADIUM (BOCCA RATON, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI FL 45.0 20 26-195 [7.5] 31-17-184 [5.9] 8.4 0.0 5 35-53 [1.5] 11-4-26 [2.4] 0.0 +1 +45.0 FLA ATLANTIC 44.0 30 61-300 [4.9] 35-23-263 [7.5] 12.8 47.0 31 51-194 [3.8] 35-21-424 [12.1] 13.1 +4 -3.0

GAME TRENDS• FL ATLANTIC is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) - Against prolific-scoring teams averaging 36 PPG or more(CS)

(305) UTAH ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (306) UTAH (-13.5 | 44) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 11, 2015 9:00 PM on ESPN2 - RICE-ECCLES STADIUM (SALT LAKE CITY, UT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTAH ST 12.0 15 35-140 [4.0] 33-16-110 [3.3] 20.8 9.0 9 30-52 [1.7] 34-17-111 [3.3] 18.1 -1 +3.0 UTAH (24) 24.0 20 37-129 [3.5] 33-24-208 [6.3] 14.0 17.0 20 29-76 [2.6] 43-27-279 [6.5] 20.9 +2 +7.0

After two injury-plagued seasons, Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton wants to turn back the clock and be the dynamic performer he was in his first two seasons. The benefit for the Aggies is that in the last two years they have evolved offensively and are no longer wholly dependent on him to win. Utah State’s defense lost players to graduation, but this is still a fine unit and the team is 9-2 ATS in nonconference clashes if opponent is off a victory. Utah had solid win over Michigan, but seldom is all that fired up for these games and is 3-8-1 ATS in last dozen matchups with the Aggies.

GAME TRENDS• UTAH is 11-1 ATS(L3Y) - More than 6 days rest• UTAH ST is 3-7 ATS(L3Y) - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest• UTAH is 9-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)

(307) SOUTH FLORIDA [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (308) FLORIDA ST (-27.5 | 53) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 11:30 AM on ESPN - DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUM (TALLAHASSE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SOUTH FLORIDA 51.0 27 46-275 [6.0] 26-20-281 [10.8] 10.9 3.0 11 34-12 [0.4] 38-20-170 [4.5] 60.7 +1 +48.0 FLORIDA ST (11) 59.0 30 41-266 [6.5] 32-25-370 [11.6] 10.8 16.0 17 33-132 [4.0] 42-26-168 [4.0] 18.8 0 +43.0

GAME TRENDS• SOUTH FLORIDA is 9-0 UNDER(L10G) - AS underdog of more than 20 points






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(309) W MICHIGAN (-4 | 56.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0] AT (310) GEORGIA SOUTHERN [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 6:00 PM on ESPN3 - PAULSON STADIUM (STATESBORO, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF W MICHIGAN 24.0 22 23-18 [0.8] 50-33-365 [7.3] 16.0 37.0 26 40-196 [4.9] 31-15-256 [8.3] 12.2 -1 -13.0GA SOUTHERN 0.0 14 57-195 [3.4] 13-2-29 [2.2] 0.0 44.0 21 40-185 [4.6] 26-16-359 [13.8] 12.4 -5 -44.0

GAME TRENDS• W MICHIGAN is 7-1 OVER(L10G) - Against pathetic-scoring teams averaging 18 PPG or less(CS)

(311) BUFFALO [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (312) PENN ST (-20 | 50) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:00 PM on ESPN2 - BEAVER STADIUM (UNIVERSITY PARK, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BUFFALO 51.0 24 43-212 [4.9] 29-22-255 [8.8] 9.2 14.0 13 35-141 [4.0] 25-13-128 [5.1] 19.2 +3 +37.0 PENN ST 10.0 9 27-77 [2.9] 25-11-103 [4.1] 18.0 27.0 15 43-149 [3.5] 21-16-168 [8.0] 11.7 0 -17.0

GAME TRENDS• PENN ST is 19-4 UNDER(L25G) - In September

(313) ARMY [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (314) CONNECTICUT (-7.5 | 47) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:00 PM - RENTSCHLER FIELD (HARTFORD, CT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARMY 35.0 22 42-256 [6.1] 16-7-133 [8.3] 11.1 37.0 17 37-123 [3.3] 23-15-322 [14.0] 12.0 -1 -2.0 CONNECTICUT 20.0 19 39-105 [2.7] 20-12-202 [10.1] 15.3 15.0 18 36-114 [3.2] 33-18-189 [5.7] 20.2 +1 +5.0

GAME TRENDS• ARMY is 0-10 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - All Games

(315) EAST CAROLINA [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (316) FLORIDA (-20 | 53.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 7:00 PM on ESPN2 - BEN HILL GRIFFIN STADIUM (GAINESVILLE, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF EAST CAROLINA 28.0 23 34-210 [6.2] 37-29-230 [6.2] 15.7 20.0 27 44-179 [4.1] 33-17-237 [7.2] 20.8 +2 +8.0 FLORIDA 61.0 28 42-224 [5.3] 37-30-382 [10.3] 9.9 13.0 8 23-72 [3.1] 28-14-128 [4.6] 15.4 0 +48.0

GAME TRENDS• EAST CAROLINA is 9-1 OVER(L10G) on ROAD - Against solid passing defenses yielding less than

6.15 yards per attempt(CS)

(317) HOUSTON [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (318) LOUISVILLE (-12.5 | 55) [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:00 PM on ESPN3 - PAPA JOHNS CARDINAL STADIUM (LOUISVILLE, KY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HOUSTON 52.0 27 44-272 [6.2] 38-27-355 [9.3] 12.1 24.0 10 33-29 [0.9] 26-16-312 [12.0] 14.2 0 +28.0 LOUISVILLE 24.0 27 48-238 [5.0] 33-17-167 [5.1] 16.9 31.0 21 41-190 [4.6] 21-11-137 [6.5] 10.5 +1 -7.0

Houston handled Tennessee Tech with ease, 52-24 but were not close to covering the 37-point spread. Quarterback Greg Ward proved in the opener he is going to be one of the top duel threats in the AAC with his arm and legs, but will face a much different pressure package from Louisville’s defense. The Cougars pass defense allowed nearly 20 yards per completion in opener, but is 6-0 ATS as road underdog. Louisville’s first play versus Auburn was a trick play that failed and seemingly the Cardinals were off kilter the rest of the day in a 31-24 setback. Back home Louisville should be more at ease, yet is just 9-16 ATS as home favorites the last four years.

GAME TRENDS• LOUISVILLE is 8-2 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5

yards per attempt(CS)• HOUSTON is 4-6 ATS(L10G) - Against anemic passing teams averaging less than 5.7 yards per

attempt(CS)• LOUISVILLE is 8-1 UNDER(L10G) at HOME - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.35

yards per carry(CS)


COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS





24




(319) FRESNO ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (320) OLE MISS (-28.5 | 54) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 3:30 PM on ESPN2 - VAUGHT HEMINGWAY STADIUM (OXFORD, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FRESNO ST 34.0 26 39-225 [5.8] 45-22-217 [4.8] 13.0 13.0 15 29-34 [1.2] 45-30-213 [4.7] 19.0 -1 +21.0 OLE MISS (17) 76.0 28 36-338 [9.4] 28-19-324 [11.6] 8.7 3.0 13 39-116 [3.0] 29-16-174 [6.0] 96.7 0 +73.0

One of the main talking points coming into the season was if Fresno State’s defense would be improved with seven starters back from a group which allowed 32.4 PPG. The Bulldogs played with more discipline and looked quicker in handling Abilene Christian 34-13, which was not much of a test. Fresno State is 8-0 ATS as nonconference road underdog of more than five points off a SU win. Ole Miss JC transfer Chad Kelly had a solid debut in blowout of Tenn.-Martin and will look to build on that performance before trip to Alabama next week. The Rebels have a great deal of front line talent, but are not deep, yet are 12-4 ATS out of conference the last four years.

GAME TRENDS• MISSISSIPPI is 8-1 ATS(L10G) - Before playing ALABAMA• FRESNO ST is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - Against elite defensive teams yielding less than 4.4 yards per

play(CS)• FRESNO ST is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per

attempt(CS)

(321) TEMPLE [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (322) CINCINNATI (-6.5 | 51.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 8:00 PM on ESPNEWS - NIPPERT STADIUM (CINCINNATI, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEMPLE 27.0 15 43-149 [3.5] 21-16-168 [8.0] 11.7 10.0 9 27-77 [2.9] 25-11-103 [4.1] 18.0 0 +17.0 CINCINNATI 52.0 34 51-296 [5.8] 38-26-340 [8.9] 12.2 10.0 14 37-98 [2.6] 26-10-148 [5.7] 24.6 -1 +42.0

GAME TRENDS• TEMPLE is 8-3 ATS(L11G) on ROAD - Against dominant teams outscoring opponents by more

than 15 points per game(CS)

(323) LSU (-4 | 49.5) [SU:0-0 | ATS:0-0] AT (324) MISSISSIPPI ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 9:15 PM on ESPN - DAVIS WADE STADIUM (STARKVILLE, MS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LSU (14) 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0 0.0 MISSISSIPPI ST (25) 34.0 19 28-205 [7.3] 38-22-237 [6.2] 13.0 16.0 20 36-102 [2.8] 44-30-311 [7.1] 25.8 0 +18.0

The Tigers will be at a disadvantage since their game with McNeese State was cancelled by lightning. This means LSU will take the field in their SEC opener not knowing if they have really made progress in the passing game with QB Anthony Jennings. This is to be determined which leaves Les Miles offense doing the usual, leaning on the running game and annually is one of the best 25 in the country. LSU is 9-2 ATS as road favorite of a touchdown or less. Mississippi State took Southern Miss best shot but won on the road 34-16, with QB Dak Prescott finding a groove after a slow start. The Bulldogs have lost seven straight (1-6 ATS) at home to LSU.

GAME TRENDS• LSU is 8-2 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - as favorite of 7 or less points• MISSISSIPPI ST is 3-7 ATS(L10G) - VS higher ranked team• LSU is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 7 points

per game(CS)

(325) MIAMI OHIO [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (326) WISCONSIN (-32.5 | 53) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:00 PM on ESPNU - CAMP RANDALL STADIUM (MADISON, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI OHIO 26.0 18 40-205 [5.1] 23-17-261 [11.3] 17.9 7.0 17 41-155 [3.8] 27-14-163 [6.0] 45.4 0 +19.0 WISCONSIN 17.0 17 21-40 [1.9] 39-26-228 [5.8] 15.8 35.0 27 37-238 [6.4] 29-22-264 [9.1] 14.3 -1 -18.0

GAME TRENDS• MIAMI OH is 10-0 UNDER(L10G) - Against low-scoring teams averaging 21 PPG or less(CS)







25


(327) KANSAS ST (-17 | 52) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (328) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:00 PM on FOX1 - ALAMO DOME (SAN ANTONIO, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KANSAS ST 34.0 16 40-185 [4.6] 18-9-147 [8.2] 9.8 0.0 16 36-61 [1.7] 30-18-205 [6.8] 0.0 0 +34.0 TEXAS-SA 32.0 29 50-193 [3.9] 45-25-332 [7.4] 16.4 42.0 25 38-163 [4.3] 36-22-229 [6.4] 9.3 -1 -10.0

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS ST is 8-2 OVER(L10G) on ROAD - Against mediocre teams being outscored by

opponents by more than 4.5 points per game(CS)

(329) MARSHALL (-3.5 | 60.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (330) OHIO U [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - PEDEN STADIUM (ATHENS, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MARSHALL 41.0 20 29-163 [5.6] 36-23-234 [6.5] 9.7 31.0 28 47-184 [3.9] 48-31-270 [5.6] 14.6 +1 +10.0 OHIO U 45.0 23 38-205 [5.4] 25-20-284 [11.4] 10.9 28.0 25 29-106 [3.7] 47-35-285 [6.1] 14.0 +2 +17.0

GAME TRENDS• MARSHALL is 8-1 OVER(L10G) on ROAD - In September

(331) HAWAII [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (332) OHIO ST (-40 | 59.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 3:30 PM on BTN - OHIO STADIUM (COLUMBUS, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF HAWAII 28.0 14 34-100 [2.9] 38-19-202 [5.3] 10.8 20.0 24 53-215 [4.1] 40-23-158 [4.0] 18.6 +1 +8.0 OHIO ST (1) 42.0 21 37-360 [9.7] 19-10-212 [11.2] 13.6 24.0 18 44-128 [2.9] 25-15-192 [7.7] 13.3 -1 +18.0

GAME TRENDS• OHIO ST is 9-1 OVER(L10G) at HOME - All Games

(333) WAKE FOREST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (334) SYRACUSE (-4.5 | 44) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:30 PM on ESPN3 - CARRIER DOME (SYRACUSE, NY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WAKE FOREST 41.0 29 42-203 [4.8] 40-29-388 [9.7] 14.4 3.0 6 19-51 [2.7] 28-15-100 [3.6] 50.3 0 +38.0 SYRACUSE 47.0 23 58-312 [5.4] 20-10-114 [5.7] 9.1 0.0 2 20-4 [0.2] 20-10-60 [3.0] 0.0 +3 +47.0

GAME TRENDS• SYRACUSE is 8-0 UNDER(L10G) - VS Non-ranked team

(335) APPALACHIAN ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (336) CLEMSON (-17 | 58.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:30 PM on ESPN3 - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CLEMSON, SC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF APPALACHIAN ST 49.0 33 55-359 [6.5] 29-22-304 [10.5] 13.5 0.0 8 30-36 [1.2] 22-14-136 [6.2] 0.0 0 +49.0 CLEMSON (12) 49.0 27 43-222 [5.2] 37-30-311 [8.4] 10.9 10.0 9 45-123 [2.7] 18-6-90 [5.0] 21.3 -2 +39.0

GAME TRENDS• CLEMSON is 8-1 UNDER(L10G) - All Games

(337) MISSOURI (-10.5 | 59.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (338) ARKANSAS ST [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - LIBERTY BANK STADIUM (JONESBORO, AR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MISSOURI (21) 34.0 19 33-98 [3.0] 32-18-319 [10.0] 12.3 3.0 10 42-145 [3.5] 22-12-56 [2.5] 67.0 0 +31.0 ARKANSAS ST 6.0 19 50-208 [4.2] 37-17-193 [5.2] 66.8 55.0 22 32-189 [5.9] 32-23-320 [10.0] 9.3 -4 -49.0

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS ST is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per

play(CS)








26




(339) E MICHIGAN [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0] AT (340) WYOMING (-13 | 54.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 4:00 PM - WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM (LARAMIE, WY)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF E MICHIGAN 34.0 27 47-252 [5.4] 36-22-192 [5.3] 13.1 38.0 25 41-229 [5.6] 32-18-184 [5.8] 10.9 -3 -4.0 WYOMING 13.0 14 19-41 [2.2] 39-20-289 [7.4] 25.4 24.0 23 54-276 [5.1] 23-13-153 [6.7] 17.9 0 -11.0

GAME TRENDS• WYOMING is 1-9 ATS(L10G) at HOME - All Games

(341) MASSACHUSETTS [SU:0-0 | ATS:0-0] AT (342) COLORADO (-13 | 63) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 2:00 PM on PAC12 - FOLSOM FIELD (BOULDER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MASSACHUSETTS 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0 0.0 COLORADO 20.0 24 53-215 [4.1] 40-23-158 [4.0] 18.6 28.0 14 34-100 [2.9] 38-19-202 [5.3] 10.8 -1 -8.0

GAME TRENDS• MASSACHUSETTS is 8-2 OVER(L10G) - As underdog

(343) MINNESOTA (-6 | 53.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0] AT (344) COLORADO ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 3:30 PM on CBSSN - HUGHES STADIUM (FORT COLLINS, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MINNESOTA 17.0 18 39-144 [3.7] 35-19-197 [5.6] 20.1 23.0 25 44-203 [4.6] 42-26-246 [5.9] 19.5 0 -6.0 COLORADO ST 65.0 33 33-217 [6.6] 36-27-381 [10.6] 9.2 13.0 11 49-83 [1.7] 23-10-100 [4.3] 14.1 -3 +52.0

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - On non-grass field

(345) OREGON ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (346) MICHIGAN (-15 | 48) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:00 PM on ABC - MICHIGAN STADIUM (ANN ARBOR, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OREGON ST 26.0 22 56-281 [5.0] 22-12-110 [5.0] 15.0 7.0 9 18-58 [3.2] 36-19-120 [3.3] 25.4 0 +19.0 MICHIGAN 17.0 20 29-76 [2.6] 43-27-279 [6.5] 20.9 24.0 20 37-129 [3.5] 33-24-208 [6.3] 14.0 -2 -7.0

Gary Anderson skipped out of Wisconsin to return west, taking the Oregon State job and has quite a bit of work to do. The Beavers knocked off Weber State 26-7 in their lid-lifter, but never threatened covering the 28-point spread. It had to be a shock for Oregon State fans to see their team run 56 times compared to 22 passes. The Beavers are 11-26 ATS on the September road. Jim Harbaugh certainly wants a sparkling home debut after the loss at Utah. Michigan moved the ball through the air fairly well but three picks sealed their fate. The Wolverines should win and cover but are 5-15 ATS at home after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

GAME TRENDS• OREGON ST is 8-2 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against poor rushing teams averaging less than 3.4

yards per carry(CS)• MICHIGAN is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - In September• OREGON ST is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - Against anemic rushing teams averaging less than

3.0 yards per carry(CS)

(347) TULANE [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (348) GEORGIA TECH (-28.5 | 54.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 3:30 PM on ESPN3 - BOBBY DODD STADIUM AT GRANT FIELD (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TULANE 7.0 14 23-25 [1.1] 42-24-246 [5.9] 38.7 37.0 29 49-206 [4.2] 44-29-324 [7.4] 14.3 +1 -30.0GEORGIA TECH (15) 69.0 26 52-476 [9.2] 5-4-77 [15.4] 8.0 6.0 13 39-166 [4.3] 28-10-106 [3.8] 45.3 +2 +63.0

GAME TRENDS• GEORGIA TECH is 13-3 UNDER(L25G) at HOME - More than 6 days rest








27


(349) GEORGIA (-19.5 | 52) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (350) VANDERBILT [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 3:30 PM on CBS - VANDERBILT STADIUM (NASHVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GEORGIA (10) 51.0 19 38-243 [6.4] 14-10-192 [13.7] 8.5 14.0 12 26-45 [1.7] 29-23-206 [7.1] 17.9 +1 +37.0 VANDERBILT 12.0 20 42-176 [4.2] 34-18-217 [6.4] 32.8 14.0 11 22-38 [1.7] 30-19-209 [7.0] 17.6 -3 -2.0

Georgia had little trouble with Louisiana-Monroe in a 51-14 drubbing. Unfortunately, we did not learn much about new quarterback Greyson Lambert, the graduate transfer from Virginia, but the rest of the Bulldogs performed well and chances are we learn more this week about him on the road. Georgia is only 13-23 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points the last 14 years. Head coach Derek Mason took over the Vanderbilt defense and it immediately showed improvement in holding explosive Western Kentucky to 14 points and 237 total yards. Though the offense moved the ball, the Commodores still only tallied 12 points in defeat. Vandy is a fairly dandy 6-2 ATS against Georgia.

GAME TRENDS• VANDERBILT is 8-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)• GEORGIA is 3-20-1 ATS(L25G) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS)• GEORGIA is 8-2 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 15.3

yards per point(CS)

(351) BOISE ST (-3 | 54.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (352) BYU [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 10:15 PM on ESPN2 - LAVELL EDWARDS STADIUM (PROVO, UT)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOISE ST (20) 16.0 21 53-185 [3.5] 27-17-152 [5.6] 21.1 13.0 12 22-29 [1.3] 35-20-150 [4.3] 13.8 -1 +3.0 BYU 33.0 21 26-132 [5.1] 46-28-379 [8.2] 15.5 28.0 25 37-126 [3.4] 41-24-319 [7.8] 15.9 +1 +5.0

Boise State held Washington to 179 yards but had to hang on to win as their punt team coverage was brutal and almost cost them the game. The Broncos offense was effective in building 16-0 lead but was stymied and never scored again which could hurt them at Provo. Alarmingly, Boise State is 0-8 ATS as road favorite off a nonconference triumph if their opponent is also off a victory. Thrilling win for BYU at Nebraska, but the loss of Taysom Hill is a bitter pill to swallow. Nonetheless, Tanner Mangum looks like a keeper and has better arm. The Cougars are 10-2 ATS as underdogs if opposing teams carries over .500 record.

GAME TRENDS• BOISE ST is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - Non-conference VS NON-BIG 5• BYU is 1-8 ATS(L10G) - On grass field• BOISE ST is 9-1 OVER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5

yards per attempt(CS)

(353) NOTRE DAME (-11.5 | 47.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (354) VIRGINIA [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 3:30 PM on ABC - SCOTT STADIUM (CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NOTRE DAME (9) 38.0 30 52-214 [4.1] 23-19-313 [13.6] 13.9 3.0 8 29-60 [2.1] 23-8-103 [4.5] 54.3 0 +35.0 VIRGINIA 16.0 19 34-98 [2.9] 35-21-238 [6.8] 21.0 34.0 25 34-152 [4.5] 37-28-351 [9.5] 14.8 -1 -18.0

Notre Dame looked the part of a team which could reach the Final Four, lassoing Texas 38-3. QB Malik Zaire was poised and threw several passes on the money and the amount of weapons the Fighting Irish outside have is stupendous. The loss of RB Tarean Folston could hurt more later, which means the backups have to grow up fast. The defense looks very proficient, but the Irish are just 4-6 ATS as road favorites under coach Kelly. Virginia had chances early at UCLA, but settled for field goals instead of touchdowns. At least the Cavaliers will be home, but could be dominated at the line of scrimmage. The Wahoos are 2-11 ATS at home off a SU and ATS defeat.

GAME TRENDS• NOTRE DAME is 9-2 ATS(L11G) on ROAD - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5

yards per attempt(CS)• VIRGINIA is 2-7-1 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against strong teams outscoring opponents by more

than 10 points per game(CS)• NOTRE DAME is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against weak teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 8.5 points per game(CS)





28




(355) IOWA (-3.5 | 52) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (356) IOWA ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 4:45 PM on FOX - JACK TRICE STADIUM (AMES, IA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF IOWA 31.0 22 44-210 [4.8] 25-16-221 [8.8] 13.9 14.0 14 28-35 [1.2] 27-16-196 [7.3] 16.5 -1 +17.0 IOWA ST 31.0 15 32-77 [2.4] 29-21-233 [8.0] 10.0 7.0 16 41-126 [3.1] 34-20-176 [5.2] 43.1 0 +24.0

It is the confrontation in the Hawkeye State and its not lost on those from Ames, the state is not known as the Cyclone State. For Iowa State, this rivalry is always a big deal, while the team in black and gold seems to treat it as just another nonconference contest. The Cyclones have been going in reverse the past couple years at 3-9 and 2-10 respectively, yet always are ready to face Iowa, having an 11-4 ATS mark since 2000. Neither team is blessed with great speed and has to grind out yardage. With the past four games decided by 15 total points, no reason to think this one will not be close also.

GAME TRENDS• IOWA is 8-2 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - All Games• IOWA ST is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - Against decent-scoring teams averaging 30 PPG or more(CS)• IOWA is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.9 yards per

attempt(CS)

(357) SAN DIEGO ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (358) CALIFORNIA (-12.5 | 61) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 5:00 PM on PAC12 - CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUM (BERKELEY, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN DIEGO S 37.0 15 36-166 [4.6] 23-11-139 [6.0] 8.2 3.0 13 38-84 [2.2] 27-13-109 [4.0] 64.3 +5 +34.0 CALIFORNIA 73.0 31 39-185 [4.7] 49-34-471 [9.6] 9.0 14.0 11 33-127 [3.8] 30-11-170 [5.7] 21.2 +2 +59.0

GAME TRENDS• SAN DIEGO ST is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - Non-conference games

(359) MEMPHIS (-13.5 | 58) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (360) KANSAS [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - MEMORIAL STADIUM (LAWRENCE, KS)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MEMPHIS 63.0 27 60-317 [5.3] 21-16-202 [9.6] 8.2 7.0 10 30-18 [0.6] 25-15-107 [4.3] 17.9 +3 +56.0 KANSAS 38.0 29 50-285 [5.7] 40-25-291 [7.3] 15.2 41.0 25 39-170 [4.4] 33-17-293 [8.9] 11.3 -2 -3.0

GAME TRENDS• KANSAS is 1-8-1 ATS(L10G) - Non-conference games

(361) TOLEDO [SU:0-0 | ATS:0-0] AT (362) ARKANSAS (-22 | 54) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 4:00 PM on SEC - WAR MEMORIAL STADIUM (LITTLE ROCK, AR)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TOLEDO 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0 0.0 ARKANSAS (18) 48.0 18 34-182 [5.4] 20-14-308 [15.4] 10.2 13.0 13 34-58 [1.7] 19-14-146 [7.7] 15.7 +3 +35.0

For a running team, Arkansas looked awfully comfortable throwing, as QB Brandon Allen rang up 308 passing against UTEP. This give the Razorbacks even more explosiveness and if they can have this type of balanced attack, the Hogs might be even more treacherous to face than first thought. Arkansas has covered their last six nonconference contests. Toledo will be at a disadvantage on two fronts, as their opener with Stony Brook was weathered-out, making this their first game and All-MAC RB Kareem Hunt is suspended. The Rockets still have the talent to move the pigskin, but it’s improved defense will face a severe test on the road without the benefit of game action. Toledo is 8-3 ATS as underdogs.

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - All Games• TOLEDO is 4-10 ATS(L14G) on ROAD - Against elite defensive teams allowing less than 17.5

PPG(CS)• TOLEDO is 10-1 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than

5.7 yards per play(CS)







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(363) MIDDLE TENN ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (364) ALABAMA (-34 | 56.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 4:00 PM on SEC - BRYANT-DENNY STADIUM (TUSCALOOSA, AL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIDDLE TENN S 70.0 36 63-282 [4.5] 32-25-351 [11.0] 9.0 14.0 10 20-33 [1.6] 40-23-271 [6.8] 21.7 -1 +56.0 ALABAMA (2) 35.0 27 37-238 [6.4] 29-22-264 [9.1] 14.3 17.0 17 21-40 [1.9] 39-26-228 [5.8] 15.8 +1 +18.0

GAME TRENDS• ALABAMA is 7-3 ATS(L10G) at HOME - as double digit favorite

(365) SAN JOSE ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (366) AIR FORCE (-6.5 | 58) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 10:15 PM on ESPNU - FALCON STADIUM (COLORADO SPRINGS, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN JOSE ST 43.0 34 53-285 [5.4] 35-30-422 [12.1] 16.4 13.0 10 26-126 [4.8] 25-10-60 [2.4] 14.3 0 +30.0 AIR FORCE 63.0 29 63-394 [6.3] 7-4-119 [17.0] 8.1 7.0 12 34-53 [1.6] 25-13-142 [5.7] 27.9 +2 +56.0

GAME TRENDS• SAN JOSE ST is 1-9 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.25

yards per point(CS)

(367) PITTSBURGH (-12.5 | 51) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (368) AKRON [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 6:00 PM on ESPN3 - INFOCISION STADIUM (AKRON, OH)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PITTSBURGH 45.0 16 43-325 [7.6] 18-11-133 [7.4] 10.2 37.0 16 30-129 [4.3] 40-20-278 [7.0] 11.0 -3 +8.0 AKRON 3.0 10 44-138 [3.1] 26-6-88 [3.4] 75.3 41.0 26 33-100 [3.0] 42-28-439 [10.5] 13.1 +1 -38.0

GAME TRENDS• AKRON is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - All Games

(369) BOWLING GREEN [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (370) MARYLAND (-7.5 | 68.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 12:00 PM on BTN - BYRD STADIUM (COLLEGE PARK, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BOWLING GREEN 30.0 24 34-124 [3.6] 51-29-433 [8.5] 18.6 59.0 29 64-399 [6.2] 23-15-205 [8.9] 10.2 -1 -29.0MARYLAND 50.0 24 45-341 [7.6] 22-12-138 [6.3] 9.6 21.0 12 27-56 [2.1] 30-18-220 [7.3] 13.1 -1 +29.0

GAME TRENDS• BOWLING GREEN is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less

than 12.35 yards per point(C)

(371) ARIZONA (-11 | 62) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (372) NEVADA [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 7:00 PM on CBSSN - MACKAY STADIUM (RENO, NV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA (22) 42.0 25 38-163 [4.3] 36-22-229 [6.4] 9.3 32.0 29 50-193 [3.9] 45-25-332 [7.4] 16.4 +1 +10.0 NEVADA 31.0 22 39-232 [5.9] 23-13-163 [7.1] 12.7 17.0 22 27-89 [3.3] 47-32-238 [5.1] 19.2 0 +14.0

The loss of LB Scooby Wright will have a big impact on Arizona who was already lit up by an inexperienced Texas-San Antonio offense for 525 yards in their opening game win 42-32. Offensively, RB Nick Wilson and QB Anu Solomon need to be ready from the get go after weak first half against UTSA. The Wildcats are only 8-21 ATS in road games after scoring 37 points or more. Nevada QB Tyler Stewart made his first start in two years as the Wolf Pack cruised to 31-17 win over Cal-Davis. If he and tailback Don Jackson (124 rushing yards) mesh to lead Nevada’s offense, the Wolf Pack can give Arizona issues in this nonconference clash.

GAME TRENDS• NEVADA is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - AS double digit underdog• ARIZONA is 2-8 ATS(L10G) - As favorite• NEVADA is 6-0 UNDER(L10G) at HOME - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest







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(373) KENTUCKY [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (374) SOUTH CAROLINA (-7.5 | 57) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 7:30 PM on SEC - WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUM (COLUMBIA, SC)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF KENTUCKY 40.0 18 26-178 [6.8] 34-16-257 [7.6] 10.9 33.0 28 47-247 [5.3] 41-26-232 [5.7] 14.5 +3 +7.0 SOUTH CAROLINA 17.0 22 47-254 [5.4] 27-12-140 [5.2] 23.2 13.0 20 32-208 [6.5] 31-19-232 [7.5] 33.8 +3 +4.0

South Carolina allowed 440 yards on defense, but thanks to a 3-0 turnover differential, escaped North Carolina 17-13. The Gamecocks were able to run on the Tar Heels, but QB Connor Mitch finished 9 of 22 for 122 yards, making one wonder about South Carolina’s passing game. The Gamecocks have won seven straight (4-3 ATS) over Kentucky. After building 33-10 lead over UL-Lafayette, the Wildcats played like the game was over and was tied at 33 all before scoring last minute touchdown for the win. Kentucky QB Patrick Towles was both good and bad and has to be more stable for ‘Cats to engineer upset. Could be high scoring with these teams 8-0 OVER.

GAME TRENDS• SOUTH CAROLINA is 7-3 ATS(L10G) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)• KENTUCKY is 2-9 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - VS Non-ranked team• SOUTH CAROLINA is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) at HOME - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding

less than 5.9 yards per attempt(CS)

(375) NORTH TEXAS [SU:0-0 | ATS:0-0] AT (376) SMU (-4.5 | 59) [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - GERALD J. FORD STADIUM (DALLAS, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NORTH TEXAS 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0.0 0 0-0 [0.0] 0-0-0 [0.0] 0.0 0 0.0 SMU 21.0 22 54-203 [3.8] 24-16-166 [6.9] 17.6 56.0 27 37-300 [8.1] 32-17-423 [13.2] 12.9 -1 -35.0

GAME TRENDS• NORTH TEXAS is 9-1 OVER(L10G) on ROAD - Against lesser defensive teams allowing more than

29 PPG(CS)

(377) BALL ST [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (378) TEXAS A&M (-30 | 63.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 7:00 PM on ESPNU - KYLE FIELD (COLLEGE STATION, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BALL ST 48.0 33 42-229 [5.5] 53-34-338 [6.4] 11.8 36.0 22 29-103 [3.6] 49-35-444 [9.1] 15.2 +1 +12.0 TEXAS A&M (16 38.0 22 45-178 [4.0] 35-19-247 [7.1] 11.2 17.0 19 41-92 [2.2] 41-25-199 [4.9] 17.1 -1 +21.0

GAME TRENDS• BALL ST is 8-2 ATS(L10G) - AS underdog of more than 7 points

(379) UTEP [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (380) TEXAS TECH (-20 | 66) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 3:00 PM on FOX - JONES AT&T STADIUM (LUBBOCK, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UTEP 13.0 13 34-58 [1.7] 19-14-146 [7.7] 15.7 48.0 18 34-182 [5.4] 20-14-308 [15.4] 10.2 -3 -35.0TEXAS TECH 59.0 29 31-174 [5.6] 57-34-437 [7.7] 10.4 45.0 34 46-351 [7.6] 52-36-320 [6.2] 14.9 +3 +14.0

GAME TRENDS• TEXAS TECH is 7-1 OVER(L10G) - Against inept defensive teams yielding more than 6.3 yards per

play(CS)

(381) WASHINGTON ST [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (382) RUTGERS (-2 | 62.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 3:30 PM on ESPNU - HIGH POINT SOLUTIONS STADIUM (PISCATAWAY, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WASHINGTON ST 17.0 21 30-104 [3.5] 45-28-307 [6.8] 24.2 24.0 19 48-233 [4.9] 12-7-61 [5.1] 12.2 -2 -7.0 RUTGERS 63.0 26 47-291 [6.2] 15-13-248 [16.5] 8.6 13.0 10 23--3 [-0.1] 29-18-199 [6.9] 15.1 0 +50.0

GAME TRENDS• RUTGERS is 8-0 UNDER(L10G) - Against pathetic-scoring teams averaging 18 PPG or less(CS)








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(383) OKLAHOMA [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (384) TENNESSEE (PK | 61.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 6:00 PM on ESPN - NEYLAND STADIUM (KNOXVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OKLAHOMA (19) 41.0 26 33-100 [3.0] 42-28-439 [10.5] 13.1 3.0 10 44-138 [3.1] 26-6-88 [3.4] 75.3 -1 +38.0 TENNESSEE (23) 59.0 29 64-399 [6.2] 23-15-205 [8.9] 10.2 30.0 24 34-124 [3.6] 51-29-433 [8.5] 18.6 +1 +29.0

Tennessee rushed for 399 yards against Bowling Green and if they develop that kind of stellar running game, that will make QB Josh Dobbs that much more dangerous as a passer. The concern coming into this key conflict for the Vols is the pass defense, which was torched for 433 yards and Oklahoma has better athletes on the perimeter. Tennessee is 1-9 ATS versus nonconference foe off 10+ point SU win. Transfer Baker Mayfield won the Sooners QB job and threw for 388 yards and three touchdowns in his debut. Oklahoma has a potent running game and it appears the pressure will be on both defenses to make stops. Sooners are 15-2 ATS if non-Big 12 opponent is off a win.

GAME TRENDS• OKLAHOMA is 8-3 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards

per point(CS)• TENNESSEE is 1-9 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9

yards per attempt(CS)• OKLAHOMA is 9-1 OVER(L3Y) on ROAD - All Games

(385) RICE [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (386) TEXAS (-15.5 | 51) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 8:00 PM on LHN - DARRELL K. ROYAL - TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUM (AUSTIN, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RICE 56.0 28 54-401 [7.4] 21-12-142 [6.8] 9.7 16.0 13 37-86 [2.3] 22-10-199 [9.0] 17.8 0 +40.0 TEXAS 3.0 8 29-60 [2.1] 23-8-103 [4.5] 54.3 38.0 30 52-214 [4.1] 23-19-313 [13.6] 13.9 0 -35.0

GAME TRENDS• RICE is 9-1 OVER(L10G) on ROAD - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 35

PPG(CS)

(387) GEORGIA ST [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (388) NEW MEXICO ST (-6.5 | 63.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 8:00 PM on ESPN3 - AGGIE MEMORIAL STADIUM (LAS CRUCES, NM)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF GEORGIA ST 20.0 16 26-93 [3.6] 43-25-299 [7.0] 19.6 23.0 24 54-164 [3.0] 32-19-244 [7.6] 17.7 +2 -3.0 NEW MEXICO ST 13.0 8 23-72 [3.1] 28-14-128 [4.6] 15.4 61.0 28 42-224 [5.3] 37-30-382 [10.3] 9.9 0 -48.0

GAME TRENDS• NEW MEXICO ST is 0-10 ATS(L10G) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per

play(CS)

(389) S ALABAMA [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (390) NEBRASKA (-26.5 | 54) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 8:00 PM on BTN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (LINCOLN, NE)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF S ALABAMA 33.0 13 31-224 [7.2] 25-14-184 [7.4] 12.4 23.0 17 53-177 [3.3] 23-11-132 [5.7] 13.4 0 +10.0 NEBRASKA 28.0 25 37-126 [3.4] 41-24-319 [7.8] 15.9 33.0 21 26-132 [5.1] 46-28-379 [8.2] 15.5 -1 -5.0

GAME TRENDS• NEBRASKA is 9-1 OVER(L10G) - Against decent defensive teams yielding less than 5.0 yards per

play(CS)









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COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(391) OREGON [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1] AT (392) MICHIGAN ST (-4 | 67) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]

SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 8:00 PM on ABC - SPARTAN STADIUM (EAST LANSING, MI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OREGON (7) 61.0 34 57-485 [8.5] 25-19-246 [9.8] 12.0 42.0 31 31-111 [3.6] 55-37-438 [8.0] 13.1 +1 +19.0 MICHIGAN ST (5) 37.0 26 40-196 [4.9] 31-15-256 [8.3] 12.2 24.0 22 23-18 [0.8] 50-33-365 [7.3] 16.0 +1 +13.0

The Ducks offense looked as potent as ever with Vernon Adams taking over the controls for Oregon, by way of Eastern Washington. He threw the ball well and extended plays with his feet, but will face a much more skilled defense from Michigan State. Of great concern is the defense conceding 42 points. The Ducks are 10-1 ATS after registering 50 or more points. Michigan State was pushed by an underrated Western Michigan club on the road and allowed 365 yards through the air. However, Conner Cook has to be thrilled after watching tape on Oregon’s defense, knowing he can score points on them. Sparty is 9-1 ATS coming off a road game the last couple years.

GAME TRENDS• OREGON is 9-1 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards

per point(CS)• MICHIGAN ST is 2-8 ATS(L10G) at HOME - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than

4.4 yards per carry(CS)• OREGON is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards

per carry(CS)

(393) FLA INTERNATIONAL [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (394) INDIANA (-7.5 | 55) [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 8:00 PM on BTN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FLA INTERNATIONAL 15.0 17 31-131 [4.2] 38-29-260 [6.8] 26.1 14.0 18 30-46 [1.5] 34-23-249 [7.3] 21.1 -1 +1.0 INDIANA 48.0 23 42-246 [5.9] 32-19-349 [10.9] 12.4 47.0 26 46-248 [5.4] 32-24-411 [12.8] 14.0 +2 +1.0

GAME TRENDS• INDIANA is 7-0 OVER(L10G) - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest

(395) IDAHO [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (396) USC (-43.5 | 66) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 8:00 PM on PAC12 - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF IDAHO 28.0 25 29-106 [3.7] 47-35-285 [6.1] 14.0 45.0 23 38-205 [5.4] 25-20-284 [11.4] 10.9 -2 -17.0USC (8) 55.0 22 32-189 [5.9] 32-23-320 [10.0] 9.3 6.0 19 50-208 [4.2] 37-17-193 [5.2] 66.8 +4 +49.0

GAME TRENDS• IDAHO is 9-0 OVER(L10G) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per

point(CS)

(397) TULSA [SU:1-0 | ATS:0-0-1] AT (398) NEW MEXICO (-4 | 72) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 8:00 PM on ESPN3 - UNIVERSITY STADIUM (ALBUQUERQUE, NM)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TULSA 47.0 31 51-194 [3.8] 35-21-424 [12.1] 13.1 44.0 30 61-300 [4.9] 35-23-263 [7.5] 12.8 -4 +3.0 NEW MEXICO 66.0 26 53-360 [6.8] 18-11-151 [8.4] 7.7 0.0 8 40-26 [0.6] 16-6-48 [3.0] 0.0 +3 +66.0

GAME TRENDS• TULSA is 9-1 ATS(L10G) on ROAD - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)









33


COLLEGE FOOTBALL MATCHUPS(399) UCF [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1] AT (400) STANFORD (-19 | 43.5) [SU:0-1 | ATS:0-1]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 10:30 PM on FOX1 - STANFORD STADIUM (STANFORD, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UCF 14.0 18 30-46 [1.5] 34-23-249 [7.3] 21.1 15.0 17 31-131 [4.2] 38-29-260 [6.8] 26.1 +1 -1.0 STANFORD 6.0 17 27-85 [3.1] 35-20-155 [4.4] 40.0 16.0 17 54-225 [4.2] 25-12-105 [4.2] 20.6 -2 -10.0

Both teams suffered stunning losses and have to regroup, as one team will end up 0-2 no matter what. Each club was whipped at the line of scrimmage and unable to generate any running game. Both head coaches were ultra conservative and neither of their defenses gave an inkling they will be near the top of their respective conferences. In terms of pressure, Stanford is really under the gun at home as QB Kevin Hogan played pathetically and often smug coach David Shaw does not have the players he recruited which are the same when he took the head job. Let’s watch to see if the Cardinal is good enough to move to 7-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.

GAME TRENDS• STANFORD is 10-2 ATS(L5Y) - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.6 yards per

carry(CS)• UCF is 2-9 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)• UCF is 9-1 UNDER(L10G) on ROAD - In September

(401) UCLA (-29 | 64.5) [SU:1-0 | ATS:1-0] AT (402) UNLV [SU:0-1 | ATS:1-0]SEPTEMBER 12, 2015 10:30 PM on CBSSN - SAM BOYD STADIUM (LAS VEGAS, NV)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2015 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF UCLA (13) 34.0 25 34-152 [4.5] 37-28-351 [9.5] 14.8 16.0 19 34-98 [2.9] 35-21-238 [6.8] 21.0 +1 +18.0 UNLV 30.0 28 47-164 [3.5] 40-22-329 [8.2] 16.4 38.0 24 42-185 [4.4] 26-21-360 [13.8] 14.3 -1 -8.0

GAME TRENDS• UNLV is 6-0 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - In September



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34




COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP WEEKLY TRENDSTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

73.6% ROI

43.2% ROI

65.5% ROI

52.7% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

56.2% ROI

54.6% ROI

81.4% ROI

40.0% ROI

30.2% ROI

59.1% ROI

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

55.1% ROI

56.2% ROI

(337) MISSOURI AT (338) ARKANSAS STMISSOURI is 10-1 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - VS Non-ranked team( $890 Profit with a 73.6% ROI )

(335) APPALACHIAN ST AT (336) CLEMSONCLEMSON is 9-3 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)( $570 Profit with a 43.2% ROI )

(391) OREGON AT (392) MICHIGAN STOREGON is 13-2 ATS(L5Y) - On grass field( $1080 Profit with a 65.5% ROI )

(365) SAN JOSE ST AT (366) AIR FORCEAIR FORCE is 12-3 OVER(L5Y) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)( $870 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(331) HAWAII AT (332) OHIO STHAWAII is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against high-scoring teams averaging 32 PPG or more(CS)( $680 Profit with a 56.2% ROI )

(383) OKLAHOMA AT (384) TENNESSEETENNESSEE is 10-2-1 OVER(L5Y) - In September( $780 Profit with a 54.6% ROI )

(313) ARMY AT (314) CONNECTICUTARMY is 1-19 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - All Games( $1790 Profit with a 81.4% ROI )

(345) OREGON ST AT (346) MICHIGANMICHIGAN is 4-11 ATS(L5Y) - In September( $660 Profit with a 40.0% ROI )

(383) OKLAHOMA AT (384) TENNESSEETENNESSEE is 7-15 ATS(L5Y) - VS AP top 25( $730 Profit with a 30.2% ROI )

(337) MISSOURI AT (338) ARKANSAS STMISSOURI is 10-2 UNDER(L5Y) - as double digit favorite( $780 Profit with a 59.1% ROI )

(307) SOUTH FLORIDA AT (308) FLORIDA STSOUTH FLORIDA is 13-3 UNDER(L5Y) - AS underdog of more than 7 points( $970 Profit with a 55.1% ROI )

(399) UCF AT (400) STANFORDUCF is 9-2 UNDER(L5Y) - In September( $680 Profit with a 56.2% ROI )


35


In last week’s season opening Football Weekly, we detailed our method for determining college football program stability and stressed how important it was in handicapping early season games. We posted the top 10 stability mismatches of last week and those plays went 6-4 ATS, the fourth straight season in which the week 1 results were at least 60%. As has become our tradition, we have decided to continue posting the games for week 2. Just for the record, last season’s week 2 plays were

6-3-1 ATS. With that in mind, here are the Top 10 College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 2 of 2015:

1. (343) MINNESOTA at (344) COLORADO ST - Stability Advantage: MINNESOTA by 132. (311) BUFFALO at (312) PENN ST - Stability Advantage: PENN ST by 113. (397) TULSA at (398) NEW MEXICO - Stability Advantage: NEW MEXICO by 10T-4. (317) HOUSTON at (318) LOUISVILLE - Stability Advantage: LOUISVILLE by 9T-4. (367) PITTSBURGH at (368) AKRON - Stability Advantage: AKRON by 9T-6. (357) SAN DIEGO ST at (358) CALIFORNIA - Stability Advantage: CALIFORNIA by 8T-6. (399) UCF at (400) STANFORD - Stability Advantage: STANFORD by 88. (301) LOUISIANA TECH at (302) W KENTUCKY - Stability Advantage: W KENTUCKY by 7T-9. Seven Different Games are Tied with a Stability Advantage of +6, those teams with the advantage include: (330) OHIO U, (332) OHIO ST, (335) APPALACHIAN ST, (359) MEMPHIS, (375) NORTH TEXAS, (380) TEXAS TECH, (387) GEORGIA ST

TOP 10 COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY MISMATCHES FOR WEEK 2

2014 Ret TOTAL 2014 Ret TOTALTeam (Conference) Record HC?OC?DC?QB? Strs STABILITY Team (Conference) Record HC?OC?DC?QB? Strs STABILITY

AIR FORCE (MTN WEST) 10-3 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12 MISSOURI (SEC) 11-3 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13AKRON (MAC) 5-7 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 N ILLINOIS (MAC) 11-3 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17ALABAMA (SEC) 12-2 4 3 3 0 2 (10) 12 NAVY (AMER ATH) 8-5 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16APPALACHIAN ST (SUN BELT) 7-5 4 3 3 4 5 (20) 19 NC STATE (ACC) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17ARIZONA (PAC 12) 10-4 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 NEBRASKA (BIG TEN) 9-4 0 0 0 4 2 (12) 6ARIZONA ST (PAC 12) 10-3 4 3 3 0 3 (16) 13 NEVADA (MTN WEST) 7-6 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12ARKANSAS (SEC) 7-6 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14 NEW MEXICO (MTN WEST) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17ARKANSAS ST (SUN BELT) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 NEW MEXICO ST (SUN BELT) 2-10 4 0 0 4 4 (18) 12ARMY (IND) 4-8 4 3 3 0 2 (10) 12 NORTH CAROLINA (ACC) 6-7 4 3 0 4 4 (17) 15AUBURN (SEC) 8-5 4 3 0 0 2 (12) 9 NORTH TEXAS (CUSA) 4-8 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13BALL ST (MAC) 5-7 4 3 3 4 4 (18) 18 NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN) 5-7 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12BAYLOR (BIG 12) 11-2 4 0 3 0 4 (18) 11 NOTRE DAME (IND) 8-5 4 3 3 0 4 (17) 14BOISE ST (MTN WEST) 12-2 4 0 3 0 4 (17) 11 OHIO ST (BIG TEN) 14-1 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC) 7-6 4 0 3 0 2 (10) 9 OHIO U (MAC) 6-6 4 3 3 4 4 (18) 18BOWLING GREEN (MAC) 8-6 4 0 0 4 3 (15) 11 OKLAHOMA (BIG 12) 8-5 4 0 3 4 3 (13) 14BUFFALO (MAC) 5-6 0 0 0 4 2 (11) 6 OKLAHOMA ST (BIG 12) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17BYU (IND) 8-5 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13 OLD DOMINION (CUSA) 6-6 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13C MICHIGAN (MAC) 7-6 0 3 0 4 2 (10) 9 OLE MISS (SEC) 9-4 4 3 3 0 3 (16) 13CALIFORNIA (PAC 12) 5-7 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18 OREGON (PAC 12) 13-2 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12CHARLOTTE (CUSA) 5-6 4 3 0 4 4 (17) 15 OREGON ST (PAC 12) 5-7 0 0 0 0 2 (10) 2CINCINNATI (AMER ATH) 9-4 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 PENN ST (BIG TEN) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17CLEMSON (ACC) 10-3 4 0 3 4 2 (10) 13 PITTSBURGH (ACC) 6-7 0 0 0 4 3 (15) 7COLORADO (PAC 12) 2-10 4 3 0 4 3 (16) 14 PURDUE (BIG TEN) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17COLORADO ST (MTN WEST) 10-3 0 0 0 0 3 (15) 3 RICE (CUSA) 8-5 4 3 3 4 1 (9) 15CONNECTICUT (AMER ATH) 2-10 4 0 3 0 3 (14) 10 RUTGERS (BIG TEN) 8-5 4 0 3 0 2 (10) 9DUKE (ACC) 9-4 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13 S ALABAMA (SUN BELT) 6-7 4 0 3 0 0 (5) 7E MICHIGAN (MAC) 2-10 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 SAN DIEGO ST (MTN WEST) 7-6 4 0 3 0 3 (14) 10EAST CAROLINA (AMER ATH) 8-5 4 0 3 0 2 (11) 9 SAN JOSE ST (MTN WEST) 3-9 4 0 3 4 3 (16) 14FLA ATLANTIC (CUSA) 3-9 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 SMU (AMER ATH) 1-11 0 0 0 4 3 (16) 7FLA INTERNATIONAL (CUSA) 4-8 4 3 0 4 3 (15) 14 SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC) 7-6 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12FLORIDA (SEC) 7-5 0 0 0 4 2 (11) 6 SOUTH FLORIDA (AMER ATH) 4-8 4 3 0 0 2 (11) 9FLORIDA ST (ACC) 13-1 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12 SOUTHERN MISS (CUSA) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17FRESNO ST (MTN WEST) 6-8 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12 STANFORD (PAC 12) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17GA SOUTHERN (SUN BELT) 9-3 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 SYRACUSE (ACC) 3-9 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16GEORGIA (SEC) 10-3 4 0 3 0 3 (13) 10 TCU (BIG 12) 12-1 4 3 0 4 3 (15) 14GEORGIA ST (SUN BELT) 1-11 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18 TEMPLE (AMER ATH) 6-6 4 3 3 4 4 (19) 18GEORGIA TECH (ACC) 11-3 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 TENNESSEE (SEC) 7-6 4 0 3 4 4 (18) 15HAWAII (MTN WEST) 4-9 4 0 0 4 3 (14) 11 TEXAS (BIG 12) 6-7 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16HOUSTON (AMER ATH) 8-5 0 0 0 4 2 (11) 6 TEXAS A&M (SEC) 8-5 4 3 0 4 3 (16) 14IDAHO (SUN BELT) 1-10 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13 TEXAS ST UNIV (SUN BELT) 7-5 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17ILLINOIS (BIG TEN) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 TEXAS TECH (BIG 12) 4-8 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18INDIANA (BIG TEN) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 TOLEDO (MAC) 9-4 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17IOWA (BIG TEN) 7-6 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 TROY (SUN BELT) 3-9 0 3 0 4 3 (13) 10IOWA ST (BIG 12) 2-10 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 TULANE (AMER ATH) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17KANSAS (BIG 12) 3-9 0 0 3 4 0 (7) 7 TULSA (AMER ATH) 2-10 0 0 0 4 3 (16) 7KANSAS ST (BIG 12) 9-4 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 TX-SAN ANTONIO (CUSA) 4-8 4 3 3 0 0 (6) 10KENT ST (MAC) 2-9 4 0 3 4 4 (17) 15 UCF (AMER ATH) 9-4 4 0 0 4 1 (9) 9KENTUCKY (SEC) 5-7 4 0 3 4 3 (14) 14 UCLA (PAC 12) 10-3 4 3 0 0 4 (18) 11LA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT) 9-4 4 3 0 0 2 (12) 9 UNLV (MTN WEST) 2-11 0 0 0 4 2 (10) 6LA MONROE (SUN BELT) 4-8 4 3 0 0 3 (14) 10 USC (PAC 12) 9-4 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17LOUISIANA TECH (CUSA) 9-5 4 3 0 0 3 (13) 10 UTAH (PAC 12) 9-4 4 0 0 4 3 (14) 11LOUISVILLE (ACC) 9-4 4 3 3 4 1 (9) 15 UTAH ST (MTN WEST) 10-4 4 0 0 4 3 (15) 11LSU (SEC) 8-5 4 3 0 4 3 (15) 14 UTEP (CUSA) 7-6 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12MARSHALL (CUSA) 13-1 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12 VANDERBILT (SEC) 3-9 4 0 0 4 4 (18) 12MARYLAND (BIG TEN) 7-6 4 3 3 0 2 (10) 12 VIRGINIA (ACC) 5-7 4 3 3 0 2 (10) 12MASSACHUSETTS (MAC) 3-9 4 3 3 4 4 (19) 18 VIRGINIA TECH (ACC) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17MEMPHIS (AMER ATH) 10-3 4 3 0 4 2 (11) 13 W KENTUCKY (CUSA) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17MIAMI FL (ACC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 2 (11) 16 W MICHIGAN (MAC) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17MIAMI OHIO (MAC) 2-10 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 WAKE FOREST (ACC) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17MICHIGAN (BIG TEN) 5-7 0 0 0 0 3 (15) 3 WASHINGTON (PAC 12) 8-6 4 3 3 0 1 (9) 11MICHIGAN ST (BIG TEN) 11-2 4 3 0 4 3 (14) 14 WASHINGTON ST (PAC 12) 3-9 4 3 0 0 3 (14) 10MIDDLE TENN ST (CUSA) 6-6 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 WEST VIRGINIA (BIG 12) 7-6 4 3 3 0 3 (15) 13MINNESOTA (BIG TEN) 8-5 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 WISCONSIN (BIG TEN) 11-3 0 0 3 4 2 (11) 9MISSISSIPPI ST (SEC) 10-3 4 3 0 4 0 (7) 11 WYOMING (MTN WEST) 4-8 4 3 3 4 1 (9) 15

Change? (0-yes) Change? (0-yes)

36




It is go time in the NFL and the beginning of Week 2 in college football, with all but a handful of teams yet to play a game. Here are the largest early line moves this week.

CFB – FRIDAY (305) UTAH STATE AT (306) UTAH 9:00 ET ESPN2Utah has a chance to move up in Pac-12 South based on how both Arizona schools started and off the win over Michigan, the money is following them early in state rivalry matchup. Utes have better athletes, but Aggies always prepared and the visitor is solid 8-3-1 ATS of late. OUR Take – Lean Utah State

CFB – (315) EAST CAROLINA AT (316) FLORIDA 7:00 ET ESPN2East Carolina lost a couple of very key performers from its offense and only defeated Towson 28-20 as four-touchdown favorites in opener. Bettors are thinking a more offensive-minded Florida team will swamp the Pirates in -The Swamp - and elevated the Gators four points to -20. This could be right with Florida 12-0 ATS as double digit nonconference faves off a 10+ point win. OUR Take – Florida covers

CFB – (323) LSU AT (324) MISSISSIPPI STATE 9:15 ET ESPNThough LSU will travel to Starksville without having a game under their belt, they have still been lifted from -2 to -4. While Mississippi State still has QB Dak Prescott, he only has six other returning starters which is why the Bulldogs are a rising underdog. Though this game blew by the key number of three, it is hard for football bettors to overlook the Tigers are 10-1 SU and ATS as visitors. OUR Take – LSU covers

CFB – (327) KANSAS STATE AT (328) UTSA 12:00 ET FS1With UTSA having scored 32 points and posting 525 yards at Arizona, those placing bets are taking a second look at the Roadrunners in spite of their inexperience. Kansas State’s rebuilding is not as monumental, yet still brought back only 10 starters and has fallen from -20 to -17.5. UTSA is only 4-12 ATS off a road loss, however, the score margin is only 4.2 PPG. OUR Take – Lean UTSA

CFB – (335) APPLALACHIAN STATE AT (336) CLEMSON 12:30 ET W-ESPNNo doubt, Clemson has suffered some losses on the offensive side of the ball, yet one would not think off hand the Tigers would be a sinking home favorite to Appalachian State, yet they are. Clemson is down two points to -17 against a Mountaineers offense that can move the ball and the Tigers have a game at Louisville on Thursday. OUR Take – Lean Clemson

CFB – (363) MID. TENN. STATE AT (364) ALABAMA 4:00 ET SECNNick Saban has not been one to run up points for the sake of it, believing his teams are ultimately more than good enough on the field. With a 2-8 ATS record since 2011 when favored by 30 or more points, Alabama went from -36 to -34 playing host to Middle Tennessee State. OUR Take – Lean M.T.S.

CFB – (373) KENTUCKY AT (374) SOUTH CAROLINA 7:30 ET SECNWhen I saw South Carolina released as either -9 or -9.5 point favorites, my immediate reaction was this team does not look good enough to be favored by that much against any halfway decent clubs like Kentucky. Clearly, other agreed and the Gamecocks have settled back to -7.5. Expect the spread winner to come down to which quarterback makes the fewer mistakes. OUR Take – Lean South Carolina

NFL – (475) SEATTLE AT (476) ST. LOUIS 1:00 ET FOXThe NFL numbers for Week 1 have been out for weeks and been picked over pretty well. The general forecast for this NFC West confrontation is defense, with the total down three points to 40. Seven of the last nine have fallen that direction and could very easily again, but would not bet any lower number. OUR Take – Play Under

NFL – (485) BALTIMORE AT (486) DENVER 4:25 ET CBSIn the featured afternoon tilt, the total has sunk from 52 to 49 despite the fact the last four encounters have all been Over’s. Why would the number be falling then, the oddsmakers totals were from 39.5 to 48, not in the 50’s, with most thinking the original number was an overreaction. OUR Take – Lean Under

NFL – (487) N.Y. GIANTS AT (488) DALLAS 8:30 ET NBCOn the Sunday night opener, the total is rising like bread in the oven, going from 49.5 to 51.5. In the last dozen battles, the OVER is 10-2, including the last five. With both secondary’s weakened and each having ways to effectively push the ball down the field, betting the OVER looks like a good play. OUR Take – San Francisco covers

NFL – MONDAY (489) PHILADELPHIA AT (490) ATLANTA 7:10 ET ESPN (SIDE AND TOTAL)In their first three NFLX games, Philadelphia went full tilt as coach Chip Kelly gave the impression he was wanted his team to go all out. Evidently this style also impressed NFL bettors, taking the Eagles from -1 to -3. This will be the 11th consecutive time Philly will be favored in this matchup. (8-2 SU & ATS) The total has also been altered from 53 to 55.5, but the Falcons are 16-6 UNDER at home when they rush for 3 to 3.5 yards per attempt. OUR Take – Philadelphia covers and Under

RECORDS:College – 3-4

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES

Documents

weekly football tip sheetWelcome to Week 2 of the 2015-16 Vegas Insider Football Weekly, and welcome to the start of another exciting NFL season. We hope those of you were able to