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ISSUE 18nfl week 17

college football week 18

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Football Weekly Football Weekly

The 2014-15 bowl season is underway and we at the Vegas Insider Football Weekly publication are ready to tackle the next set of games. In this Issue #18 of the VIFW, we will cover all of the bowl games between Christmas Eve and December 30th, starting with the Bahamas’ Bowl on Wednesday and wrapping up with the Foster Farms San Francisco Bowl, set for Tuesday the 30th. For each game, we again offer a whole page of in-depth coverage, including stats, matchups, editorial, our popular Strength

Ratings, and of course, picks from our group of handicappers. Take note that our Bettors Ratings were 5-1 ATS and our Power Ratings were 4-2 ATS on the first six games.

If you like what you’re getting from our coverage of the bowl games, you’ll get at least twice that if you pick up a copy of the 2014-15 Vegas Insider College Bowl Guide, available online now free to all season-long VIFW subscribers and $14.99 for everyone else. The “Blast” was released this past Monday night and has been a huge hit for us already. Readers have been thrilled with not only the amount of coverage we have provided of the bowl games, but also by the uniqueness of the coverage. We brought back Steve Makinen, formerly of StatFox, to produce the publication and we can’t say enough how pleased we, and readers are with the results.

Now, back to Issue #18 of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly…this week, besides the next 16 bowl games on tap, we of course cover the NFL action for week 17, the season finales. There are still three playoff spots up for grabs and plenty of seeding left to be decided. In the NFC, there are two division deciding clashes on tap for Sunday. In the NFC North, Green Bay hosts Detroit, with the winner clinching the crown. The loser heads to the wildcard games next week. In the NFC South, either Atlanta or Carolina will claim the top spot despite finishing under .500. Even still, that team will also host a playoff tilt in the wildcard round. In the AFC, Pittsburgh & Cincinnati will meet with the North crown on the line.

There are 14 other games on this week’s docket, and another word of warning, oddsmakers are treating two of them as those ugly “meaningless games”, so corresponding ratings don’t reflect the adjusted lines.

NFL picks were solid last week, 6-4 ATS on consensus plays, and Best Bet leader VI Jim swept the board on three plays. He is up to 10-games over .500 for NFL Best Bets, 61% ATS. Combined on college and pro, he easily leads the standings, 18-games over .500. A $100 bettor would be at +$1420 this season had they road Jim’s coattails.

Best of luck this week on the games, and our warmest wishes go out to you and your families for a wonderful Christmas Holiday.

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

INDEXINDEXRotation Schedule ..................................................................................................... 2NFL VI Picks .................................................................................................................. 3NFL Head-to-Head Series Breakdown ..................................................................... 4NFL Top Weekly Trends ............................................................................................... 5Super Bowl Future Bets: Know These Important Stats ............................................. 6NFL Strength Ratings .................................................................................................. 8 NFL Matchups ............................................................................................................. 9Football Line Moves ................................................................................................. 15College Bowl Game Matchups.............................................................................. 16

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THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3


ROTATION SCHEDULE301 DETROIT 47.5 47.5

P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM LIBERTY BOWL - MEMPHIS, TN 217 C MICHIGAN 65 66 302 GREEN BAY -7.5 -7.5 237 WEST VIRGINIA -3.5 -3

P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN 303 JACKSONVILLE 40.5 40 P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM ESPN218 W KENTUCKY -2.5 -3 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 238 TEXAS A&M 64 67

304 HOUSTON -9.5 -10305 CINCINNATI 48 48

219 FRESNO ST 59 59 P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM NBC 239 CLEMSON 54 53.5P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN 306 PITTSBURGH -3 -3 P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN

220 RICE 1.5 -1 307 INDIANAPOLIS -7 -6.5 240 OKLAHOMA 0 -3P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

308 TENNESSEE 48 46309 CLEVELAND 42 42.5 241 TEXAS 47 45.5

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN221 ILLINOIS 62 61.5 310 BALTIMORE -9 -9 242 ARKANSAS -5 -6.5

P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN 311 BUFFALO 44 44222 LOUISIANA TECH -5 -6 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

312 NEW ENGLAND -3.5 -3.5313 NY JETS 42 41.5

223 RUTGERS 65.5 66.5 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 243 NOTRE DAME 52 52.5P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN 314 MIAMI -6 -5.5 P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM ESPN

224 NORTH CAROLINA -3.5 -3 315 CAROLINA 48 48 244 LSU -8 -7P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM

316 ATLANTA -3.5 -4225 NC STATE 50 49.5 317 CHICAGO 43.5 43.5 245 LOUISVILLE 57 56.5

P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM ESPN226 UCF -1 -1.5 318 MINNESOTA -7 -6.5 246 GEORGIA -7 -7

319 SAN DIEGO 42.5 42P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

320 KANSAS CITY -3 -3 247 MARYLAND 48.5 47.5321 PHILADELPHIA 52 52 P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM ESPN

227 VIRGINIA TECH 51 51 P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 248 STANFORD -14 -14P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN 322 NY GIANTS -1.5 -3

228 CINCINNATI -3.5 -2.5 323 DALLAS -5 -6.5P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM

324 WASHINGTON 49.5 49.5229 DUKE 68 66.5 325 NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -4

P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM CBS P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM 230 ARIZONA ST -8 -7 326 TAMPA BAY 47 47

327 ST LOUIS 41 41P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM

231 MIAMI FL 0 -3.5 328 SEATTLE -14 -13P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC 329 ARIZONA 37 36.5

232 SOUTH CAROLINA 60 61.5 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM 330 SAN FRANCISCO -4 -6331 OAKLAND 48 48

233 PENN ST 40 40 P: 1:25PM C: 3:25PM E: 4:25PM P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN 332 DENVER -14 -14

234 BOSTON COLLEGE -2.5 -3

235 NEBRASKA 61 62P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN

236 USC -5.5 -6.5

HOLIDAY BOWL QUALCOMM STADIUM - SAN DIEGO, CA

BELK BOWL BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM - CHARLOTTE, NC

HAWAII BOWL ALOHA STADIUM - HONOLULU, HI

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2014

ST.PETERSBURG BOWL

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 30, 2014

TEXAS BOWL

TROPICANA FIELD - ST. PETERSBURG, FL

MUSIC CITY BOWL LP FIELD - NASHVILLE, TN FORD FIELD - DETROIT, MI

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES NFL WEEK 17 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMESSUNDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2014WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 24, 2014 MONDAY, DECEMBER 29, 2014

BAHAMAS BOWL T. ROBINSON STADIUM - NASSAU, BAHAMAS

HEART OF DALLAS BOWL COTTON BOWL - DALLAS, TX

QUICK LANE BOWL

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 27, 2014MILITARY BOWL

NAVY/MARINE CORPS STAD. - ANNAPOLIS, MD

SUN BOWL SUN BOWL STADIUM - EL PASO, TX

INDEPENDENCE BOWL INDEPENDENCE STADIUM - SHREVEPORT, LA

PINSTRIPE BOWL YANKEE STADIUM - BRONX, NY

LIBERTY BOWL

RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL FLORIDA CITRUS BOWL - ORLANDO, FL

NRG STADIUM - HOUSTON, TX

FOSTER FARMS BOWL LEVI'S STADIUM - SANTA CLARA, CA


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VI Jim says…Green Bay and Detroit meet for all the marbles in the NFC North Division on Sunday. The Lions haven’t won in Green Bay since 1991. With all that is at stake in this game and the Packers undefeated at home while scoring 41.1 PPG, I ask…why would this be the year that it happens? If you compare the home/road dichotomy for both teams, Green Bay actually owns a 26.1 PPG scoring edge here. The suspension of Detroit C Dominic Raiola certainly won’t help the Lions best their 15.0 PPG on the road. For those of you worried about the “hook” on the touchdown line, consider this trend: Mike McCarthy is 20-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5-14 points as coach of Green Bay, with an average score of 34.1-16.1. This week’s NFL feature article shows Green Bay as the league’s top team right now. This game will prove that.

VI Jason says…The Jets have put up the good fight over the past month-plus of the season, but there comes a point for eliminated downtrodden teams when it’s over. That point is right now for New York and probably the tenure of head coach Rex Ryan with the team. After nearly missing an upset of arch rival New England last week, I just don’t see how they get up for a season finale game in Miami against a Dolphins team that doesn’t generate as much animosity as the Patriots do. Plus, the Dolphins may be eliminated, but they certainly have some good things building, as QB Ryan Tannehill has shown solid growth this season, as have a number of key young talents on both sides of the ball. Finishing 9-7 and with a victory here would be a big step for next season. With the Jets getting outscored by nearly 13 PPG on the road this year, and with little to play for, I see Miami rolling here.

VI Paul says…Though Green Bay is averaging 41.1 points per game at Lambeau Field, they will not come anywhere close to that against Detroit. The Lions have been one of the best defensive teams in the NFL all season and with the pass rush they can generate and how their ball-hawking secondary has performed, they can limit the Packers. While the Green Bay defense is hardly elite, Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense has mostly floundered all year and they are averaging 20.1 points a game versus opposing teams permitting 23.7 PPG. With what is at stake, look for the recent 6-2 UNDER trend to continue when these two NFC North squads do battle Sunday afternoon.

VI Jim 72-82 (47%) 28-18 (61%)*

VI Jason 67-87 (44%) 15-31 (33%)*

VI Paul 80-74 (52%) 23-23 (50%)*

Power Ratings68-86 (44%)

Effective Strength 58-96 (38%)

Forecaster 67-87 (44%)

Bettors Ratings 77-77 (50%)

Consensus 68-86 (44%)

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (301) DETROIT at (302) GREEN BAY (-7.5)Green

Bay*

Detroit Detroit Green

Bay

Green

Bay

Detroit Green

Bay

Green Bay

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (301) DETROIT at (302) GREEN BAY - TOTAL (47.5)OVER UNDER UNDER* UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (309) CLEVELAND at (310) BALTIMORE (-9)Baltimore Baltimore* Baltimore Baltimore Baltimore Cleveland Cleveland Baltimore

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (309) CLEVELAND at (310) BALTIMORE - TOTAL (42.5)OVER UNDER UNDER UNDER UNDER OVER OVER UNDER

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (313) NY JETS at (314) MIAMI (-5.5)Miami* Miami* Miami* Miami Miami Miami NY Jets Miami

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (313) NY JETS at (314) MIAMI - TOTAL (41.5)OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER OVER

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (319) SAN DIEGO at (320) KANSAS CITY (-3)Kansas

City

San

Diego*

San

Diego*

Kansas

City

Kansas

City

Kansas

City

Kansas

City

Kansas City

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (319) SAN DIEGO at (320) KANSAS CITY - TOTAL (42)UNDER UNDER OVER OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (321) PHILADELPHIA at (322) NY GIANTS (-3)Philadelphia* NY Giants Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia Philadelphia

Sunday, December 28, 2014 - (321) PHILADELPHIA at (322) NY GIANTS - TOTAL (52)OVER OVER OVER UNDER UNDER OVER UNDER OVER

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

NFL VI PICKS

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For every issue of the Football Weekly this season, we’ll take a look at each upcoming pro football matchup from a head-to-head series standpoint, searching for edges on either side or total wagering option. Here are this week’s breakdowns, in rotation number order.

SUNDAY, DEC. 28(301) DETROIT at (302) GREEN BAYDetroit has won the past two games by 12 and 30 points respectively, taking the home team to 4-0 ATS and 5-1 ATS since 2011. The Lions covers ended Green Bay’s dominance which was 5-0 ATS and 12-3 ATS dating back to 2006. Watch for the favorite who has covered last five and six of seven. There has been a distinct Under pattern at 8-3 mark.

(303) JACKSONVILLE at (304) HOUSTONIt has been 13 games since one or the other of these AFC South rivals has not gone on a mini-spread run. Houston ended Jacksonville’s 3-0 ATS move three weeks ago with 27-13 victory as road touchdown favorite. This continued a trend in which the visitor is up to 5-1 ATS after being 1-4-1 in previous six confrontations. The Under is 5-2.

(305) CINCINNATI at (306) PITTSBURGHHuge showdown in the Steel City. With Pittsburgh earlier win in Southern Ohio, they are 7-2 ATS in last nine meetings and 12-4 ATS since New Year’s Eve 2006. What the football bettor really needs to figure out is who will win, since the SU winner is 23-0-1 ATS! No real flow to home/road or fave/dog, but this could be the third straight Over.

(307) INDIANAPOLIS at (308) TENNESSEENot sure Indianapolis can continue with 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 against the spread marks against Tennessee, as it is expected they will be resting starters for postseason. With the direction of each franchise, it would make sense the home team and favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in recent games. Oddly, off the past five totals, four have landed on 46 or 46.5.

(309) CLEVELAND at (310) BALTIMOREThere is genuine hated in this division rivalry, especially on the Cleveland side with Baltimore rising from the ashes when leaving northern Ohio. The Ravens earlier 23-21 triumph signified a return to road teams covering, lifting them to 8-2 ATS since 2008. The favorite is 7-4 ATS in L11 contests and the Under is 9-2 in this always hard-hitting battle.

(311) BUFFALO at (312) NEW ENGLANDSince shutting out New England 31-0 on opening day 2003, Buffalo is 1-22 SU. The Bills are better against the spread, but not by a huge margin at 7-16 ATS. The underdog or favorite has not swept a season series since 2008 and the Patriots won Nov. 12 matchup 37-22 as single digit underdogs. There has been no shortage of points with the Over 6-1.

(313) N.Y. JETS at (314) MIAMIThis could be the end of the line for the two head coaches in this AFC East contest. In the past few years, these have been defensive struggles with the Under 6-1-1. The spread sequence has been unusual with Jets 2-0, Miami 2-0 and two Push’s in the last six contests. It has been 17 games since one team was favored by more than a touchdown.

(315) CAROLINA at (316) ATLANTAFrom 2008 to 2011, this NFC South encounter was about the favorite, with a 7-1 ATS record. In the last three years we have witnessed a reversal, with the underdog now rising at 4-1 ATS streak. What has mattered most is where these tilts are held with the 10-3 ATS mark, including four in a row. The Under is 3-0 presently after being 3-0 Over.

(317) CHICAGO at (318) MINNESOTAAfter posting an 8-2 ATS record beginning Dec. 17, 2007, Chicago was clipped three consecutive times by Minnesota before a 21-13 winner as 2.5-point faves on Nov. 16. The favorite is a sharp 8-3-1 in past dozen gatherings and the home team is 5-2 ATS lately. Not many points the last few years with Under 5-1 since New Year’s Day 2012.

(319) SAN DIEGO at (320) KANSAS CITYNot much middle ground when the Chargers and Chiefs do battle. In the last 18 matchups between these original AFC partners, 10 were decided by at least 11 points and seven by three points or less. Kansas City has captured the past two and the visitor and underdog is on a nice 3-0 spread move. The Chiefs earlier 23-20 win broke a stretch of four Over’s.

(321) PHILADELPHIA at (322) N.Y. GIANTSThese long time franchises are 3-3-1 ATS in last seven meetings, alternating covers with a Push mixed in. Prior to this the Eagles covered six straight and before then the Giants had taken four in row. New York was shutout 27-0 at Philadelphia on Oct.12th and that was just the fourth home cover in 11 contests. The Under is 5-2 in recent games.

(323) DALLAS at (324) WASHINGTONDallas has won five of the past nine skirmishes; with Washington a domineering 8-1 ATS. Most of those have come when the Redskins were catching points, which explains why the underdog being 7-2 ATS. The home team has enjoyed a mild 4-2 spread edge since 2011. The Under is 4-0 of late and is 9-3 dating back to 2008.

(325) NEW ORLEANS at (326) TAMPA BAYAll the battles in the NFC South are curious series. These two squads being 5-5 ATS in the last 10 meetings is not peculiar, but four outright upsets is uncommon. There are no particular patterns to faves or dogs covering and the same is true of home or away situations. Though the last two games have gone Over, that is rarity with the Under 9-3.

(327) ST. LOUIS at (328) SEATTLEIt seems like it was years ago when St. Louis stunned Seattle 28-26 as 6.5-point home underdogs back on Oct.19. The Seahawks are a far different team now, though they are only 1-4 ATS versus the Rams since 2012. The home team has held the edge with a 7-2 ATS mark and while this number doesn’t sync up, the underdog is also 7-2 ATS.

NFL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN


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TOP NFL WEEKLY TRENDSTEAMS TO PLAY ON TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST

$1050

$1060

$820

$920

GAMES TO PLAY OVER

$440

$1330

$1450

$570

$570

GAMES TO PLAY UNDER

$440

(301) DETROIT AT (302) GREEN BAYGREEN BAY is 16-5 ATS(L21G) at HOME - Against anemic rushing teams averaging less than 3.6 yards per carry(CS)( $1050 Profit with a 45.5% ROI )

(307) INDIANAPOLIS AT (308) TENNESSEEINDIANAPOLIS is 15-4 ATS(L19G) on ROAD - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 13.35 yards per point(CS)( $1060 Profit with a 50.7% ROI )

(303) JACKSONVILLE AT (304) HOUSTONHOUSTON is 17-8 ATS(L25G) at HOME - In December( $820 Profit with a 29.8% ROI )

(303) JACKSONVILLE AT (304) HOUSTONJACKSONVILLE is 18-8 OVER(L26G) on ROAD - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.15 yards per point(CS)( $920 Profit with a 32.2% ROI )

(311) BUFFALO AT (312) NEW ENGLANDBUFFALO is 11-6 OVER(L17G) on ROAD - Against dominant teams outscoring opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(CS)( $440 Profit with a 23.5% ROI )

(307) INDIANAPOLIS AT (308) TENNESSEEINDIANAPOLIS is 19-11-2 OVER(L32G) on ROAD - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 14.4 yards per point(CS)( $690 Profit with a 19.6% ROI )

(313) NY JETS AT (314) MIAMIMIAMI is 7-21 ATS(L28G) at HOME - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per carry(CS)( $1330 Profit with a 43.2% ROI )

(327) ST LOUIS AT (328) SEATTLEST LOUIS is 5-20 ATS(L25G) on ROAD - Against strong defensive teams allowing less than 18.5 PPG(CS)( $1450 Profit with a 52.7% ROI )

(303) JACKSONVILLE AT (304) HOUSTONJACKSONVILLE is 3-9 ATS(L12G) on ROAD - Week #17 of the season( $570 Profit with a 43.2% ROI )

(309) CLEVELAND AT (310) BALTIMORECLEVELAND is 9-3-1 UNDER(L13G) - Week #17 of the season( $570 Profit with a 39.9% ROI )

(329) ARIZONA AT (330) SAN FRANCISCOARIZONA is 11-6 UNDER(L17G) on ROAD - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(CS)( $440 Profit with a 23.5% ROI )

(327) ST LOUIS AT (328) SEATTLEST LOUIS is 14-5 UNDER(L19G) on ROAD - AS double digit underdog( $850 Profit with a 40.7% ROI )

$690 $850

(329) ARIZONA at (330) SAN FRANCISCOArizona has long considered San Francisco its chief rival and being 3-9 SU and ATS since October of 2008 has only made matters worse. The pooch with the points has covered four of the last six and the home team has a modest 5-3 ATS edge. The Over is 5-3, but the oddsmakers have not made a total over 41 in this confrontation since 2009.

(331) OAKLAND at (332) DENVERIt would be fun again if the rivalry was reignited; however, presently it is all Denver. The Broncos are 6-0 and 5-0-1 ATS, with the winning margin 19.6 points a game. Oakland was actually a favorite six games ago (-7) and lost 38-24 to start this downward spiral. Looking back, the road team has come to play and is 10-2-1 ATS when they two connect.

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Only twice in the last nine years has a top seed won the Super Bowl. This was going to happen no matter what since No. 1 seeds New Orleans and Indianapolis met in SB XLIV, and Seattle and Denver got together last season. As everyone is aware, NFL football rules the sports world, because of its unpredictability and changing landscape of teams capable of winning the Lombardi Trophy. That’s not to say that #1 seeds are worthless in playoff football, just that they are not automatic options like they used to be. In fact, including Chicago in that 2007 game, and Denver last February, seven top seeds have actually lost in the Super Bowl in that span, most often to a team that built momentum and was playing its best football late in the season.

That said, bettors looking at futures wagers trying to pick a champion, or other perhaps just with a passing interest in which team has the best shot to win it all may choose to look at stats to figure it out. In our experience, simple team strength is the best way to do this, as it is almost impossible to weigh the value of momentum or confidence in sports. The Effective Strength Indicators that we offer at are very popular among oddsmakers and handicapping experts when it comes to gauging team strength. On the chart following this article you’ll find the Effective Strength Indicators and the NFL rank for all of the teams that made the postseason in each year since ’06. Along with that, we listed their playoff accomplishments in they reached the conference title game or beyond. The teams are listed in their combined rank order for that season.

Some of the highlights of the charts:

• Three times in the last seven seasons did the team with the best combined rank in Effective Strength Indicators win the Super Bowl. Unofficially, that gives Green Bay, this year’s top team after Week 16, about a 43% chance to win it in 2015. Interestingly, the last time the Packers were the top NFC team was in 2010-11, the last time they won the Super Bowl.

• The lowest rated Super Bowl Champion was New York in the 2008 playoffs. The Giants had a combined rank of 11.3, making them the 11th best in the NFL that season. If we make that the cutoff for a team being “unable to win it” this season, everyone from Indianapolis down should not be

considered, including Detroit, Pittsburgh, and the eventual NFC South champion.

• The Average Combined Rank in the last seven seasons by Super Bowl Champions is 5.4, meaning Green Bay, New England, Kansas City, and Seattle are the only real credible threats to capture the Lombardi Trophy in Arizona in February.

• The “most important” of the three Effective Strength Indicators has proven to be simple scoring, and not yards, nor yards per point. The average ranking in this indicator of recent Super Bowl champs is 5.1. New England is the top team in Effective Scoring this season, followed by Green Bay, Seattle, and Denver.

• Of the Super Bowl losing teams, only one, Arizona in the 2008-09 season, had a combined rank of less than sixth.

• One unique observation in looking at the lowest ranked teams to qualify for a postseason spot over the last seven seasons…Of the four teams that qualified for the postseason with a combined rank of 22nd or worse, THREE OF FOUR won their first playoff games outright while going 2-1-1 ATS. That could be a good sign for Carolina, should it capture the NFC South crown.

• The last four champions have had an average rank of just 3.3 in the Yards Per Play Effective Strength Indication. Incidentally, the top three in that category this season are Seattle, Denver, and Green Bay. Of course, the first two are trying to form the first Super Bowl rematch since Buffalo & Dallas collided in ’93 & ’94.

So while these strength indicators are a good way to measure overall team strength, the charts prove that there is certainly much more to it than that. Therefore, let’s get back to why things have changed in the NFL and what other factors you might want to consider when analyzing your potential futures wagers.

Because of the salary cap and player movement, it is challenging to build a true dynasty these days, thus we have witnessed lower seeded teams winning Super Bowls and the talk of where recent champions would fit in as all-time teams is a non-discussion.

There are virtually no complete teams anymore, as coaches instead focusing on being dominant in a few areas and at least average in the rest. In today’s game, you need an elite quarterback. The days of a game managing quarterback like Brad Johnson (2003) or Trent Dilfer (2001) leading a team to a championship seem long ago. Last year’s Super Bowl Champion quarterback, Russell Wilson, was not a dominant but an efficient passer, and was also able to make plays with his legs unlike Johnson or Dilfer.

Besides a top flight field general, a new statistic is back in vogue and getting more attention, the sack. Because of multiple receiver sets, the quarterback is getting rid the football quicker than ever, making the ability to rush the passer more important than ever. A look

SUPER BOWL FUTURES BETS: KNOW THESE IMPORTANT STATS


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at the top 12 teams in sacks finds these clubs in the playoff hunt: Buffalo, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Detroit, Denver, Kansas City, New England, and Indianapolis. You still have to be proficient in other areas, which is why the Giants, Jacksonville, and Minnesota rank high, but have not enjoyed the same success.

Let’s look back at the teams in recent years that won Super Bowls or played in the conference championships.

Last season, Seattle crushed Denver in New Orleans. Both ranked in the top 10 in sacks, and supposedly, the Broncos should have enjoyed a significant quarterbacking advantage in the game, with Peyton Manning holding the edge over Wilson. However, Seattle’s defensive speed and game plan was too much for the Broncos’ offense to handle. The Seahawks also got key plays on special teams as well.

In 2013, Baltimore edged San Francisco in New Orleans. Neither ranked in the top 13 in sacks and neither had a quarterback known for postseason success prior to that, although the Ravens’ Joe Flacco had won several games in earlier rounds of the playoffs before.

In 2012, the New York Giants took home the hardware for the fourth time since 1987. The defense line basically consisted of four defensive ends, all skilled pass rushers and they were tied for 3rd with Baltimore (48 sacks), who was a short field goal miss away from meeting the Giants. New England was slightly above average with 40 QB takedowns and San Francisco had 42. Interestingly, the last two times the Giants won the Super Bowl, their combined rank in our categories was 7.7 (’12) and 11.3 (’08). Only Baltimore’s 2013 rank is similar (9.0) for a champion over the last seven years. The other four were all 3.7 or less.

In 2011, Pittsburgh and Green Bay fought for the Super Bowl in chilly Dallas. The Packers ended up winning the game the Steelers and Packers were No. 1 and No. 2 in sacks that season. Green Bay QB Aaron

Rodgers was the hottest passer in the NFL that season.

The wettest Big Game was in Miami in 2009 and was a bit of anomaly, as this was a huge year for offense with New Orleans and Indianapolis leading the way. The Saints were 13th in sacks and the Colts were tied for 16th. This could have been changed since Minnesota lost in OT on the road in New Orleans and they led the NFL that season with 48.

Pittsburgh was the second-best sack-miesters in 2008, winning the big prize for a sixth time. And for the 2007 campaign, the G-Men were the sack leaders and New England was second and they played in an unforgettable Super Bowl.

Analyze the charts yourself over the next couple of weeks to determine if you can’t uncover some hidden angles which might predict this year’s playoff results. However, be sure to keep in mind that these type of strength ratings can move from week to week based upon actual results and several strong or poor performances in a row can significantly alter a team’s position.

NFL STRENGTH INDICATORS 2007-2014

NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr Comb NFL EffStr EffStr EffStr CombRank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk Rank Team Playoffs? Pts Rank YPP Rank YPPT Rank Rnk

1 NEW ENGLAND SB LOSER 18.2 1 1.14 1 18.5 1 1 1 NEW ORLEANS PLAYOFF 10.5 1 0.57 5 11.6 1 2.32 INDIANAPOLIS PLAYOFF 11 2 1.09 2 11.4 2 2 2 GREEN BAY PLAYOFF 9.7 2 0.22 9 10.5 2 4.33 GREEN BAY NFC LOSER 7.6 3 0.94 4 8.73 3 3.3 3 HOUSTON PLAYOFF 4 6 0.7 3 5.67 6 54 DALLAS PLAYOFF 7.2 4 1.03 3 7.81 4 3.7 4 NEW ENGLAND SB LOSER 9.4 3 0.15 10 10.4 3 5.35 PITTSBURGH PLAYOFF 5.5 7 0.62 5 6.82 6 6 5 BALTIMORE AFC LOSER 5.3 5 0.45 6 6.27 5 5.36 SAN DIEGO AFC LOSER 7.1 5 0.21 12 7.48 5 7.3 7 PITTSBURGH PLAYOFF 3.2 10 0.99 1 4.79 7 67 JACKSONVILLE PLAYOFF 5.5 6 0.42 9 5.91 7 7.3 8 SAN FRANCISCO NFC LOSER 8 4 0.13 12 8.61 4 6.710 TAMPA BAY PLAYOFF 0.5 13 0.55 7 2.41 12 10.7 9 NY GIANTS SB CHAMP 3.5 9 0.61 4 3.26 10 7.711 NY GIANTS SB CHAMP 2.1 10 0.21 13 2.55 11 11.3 10 DETROIT PLAYOFF 3.8 8 0.37 7 4.35 9 812 SEATTLE PLAYOFF 2.4 9 -0.09 18 4.41 8 11.7 12 ATLANTA PLAYOFF 1.8 11 -0.05 18 2.16 11 13.313 WASHINGTON PLAYOFF 0.7 12 0.33 11 0.84 13 12 21 CINCINNATI PLAYOFF -1.6 18 -0.25 24 -0.39 19 20.314 TENNESSEE PLAYOFF 0.3 14 0.08 14 0.27 15 14.3 26 DENVER PLAYOFF -6.6 27 -0.47 26 -5.99 27 26.7


1 PITTSBURGH SB CHAMP 9.6 1 1.09 1 9.02 1 1 1 SEATTLE PLAYOFF 10.6 2 0.72 3 5.6 2 2.32 PHILADELPHIA NFC LOSER 7.2 4 0.8 2 7.86 4 3.3 2 SAN FRANCISCO SB LOSER 7.5 4 1.39 1 3.73 6 3.73 TENNESSEE PLAYOFF 7.5 3 0.51 9 8.2 3 5 3 NEW ENGLAND AFC LOSER 14.6 1 -0.07 16 5.61 1 64 NY GIANTS PLAYOFF 7.1 5 0.64 5 7.57 5 5 4 DENVER PLAYOFF 8.1 3 0.86 2 1.45 14 6.35 BALTIMORE AFC LOSER 8.3 2 0.36 12 8.55 2 5.3 5 GREEN BAY PLAYOFF 5.8 8 0.32 8 2.7 7 7.76 INDIANAPOLIS PLAYOFF 4.8 6 0.58 7 4.93 7 6.7 8 BALTIMORE SB CHAMP 3.7 11 0.36 7 2.26 9 97 SAN DIEGO PLAYOFF 3.9 7 0.63 6 4.83 8 7 9 WASHINGTON PLAYOFF 3.4 12 0.41 6 1.64 11 9.78 CAROLINA PLAYOFF 2.7 9 0.71 4 3.68 9 7.3 10 CINCINNATI PLAYOFF 4.4 10 0.21 12 2.35 8 1010 MINNESOTA PLAYOFF 1.5 11 0.19 13 2.27 12 12 11 HOUSTON PLAYOFF 5.5 9 0.24 10 1.64 12 10.313 ARIZONA SB LOSER 0.4 15 0.52 8 1.35 17 13.3 12 MINNESOTA PLAYOFF 2.5 13 0.31 9 2.12 10 10.715 ATLANTA PLAYOFF 1.6 10 -0.21 22 3 11 14.3 13 ATLANTA NFC LOSER 6.4 7 -0.32 25 5.21 3 11.720 MIAMI PLAYOFF -0.9 19 0.15 16 0.31 19 18 25 INDIANAPOLIS PLAYOFF -3.3 22 -0.99 32 -1.18 19 24.3


1 NEW ORLEANS SB CHAMP 11.1 1 0.57 9 11.8 1 3.7 1 SEATTLE SB CHAMP 10.9 2 1.20 1 4.80 4 2.32 NEW ENGLAND PLAYOFF 8.7 2 0.62 7 8.5 3 4 2 SAN FRANCISCO NFC LOSER 8.3 4 0.41 6 4.97 3 4.33 INDIANAPOLIS SB LOSER 6 4 0.77 3 6.69 7 4.7 3 DENVER SB LOSER 10.9 1 0.69 3 1.89 10 4.74 BALTIMORE PLAYOFF 5.9 6 0.72 4 7.1 5 5 4 CAROLINA PLAYOFF 8.5 3 0.06 10 6.01 2 5.05 MINNESOTA NFC LOSER 7.7 3 0.33 12 9.26 2 5.7 5 CINCINNATI PLAYOFF 6.3 7 0.40 7 2.04 9 7.76 GREEN BAY PLAYOFF 5.5 7 0.58 8 7.6 4 6.3 6 NEW ORLEANS PLAYOFF 6.4 6 0.62 4 0.14 16 8.77 NY JETS AFC LOSER 6 5 0.68 6 6.33 8 6.3 7 PHILADELPHIA PLAYOFF 2.8 11 0.88 2 1.17 14 9.08 DALLAS PLAYOFF 5.4 8 0.95 2 5.87 9 6.3 8 NEW ENGLAND AFC LOSER 5.6 8 -0.01 15 3.03 6 9.79 PHILADELPHIA PLAYOFF 4.1 10 1.01 1 4.67 10 7 11 KANSAS CITY PLAYOFF 7.4 5 -0.42 28 7.44 1 11.310 SAN DIEGO PLAYOFF 5 9 0.44 11 6.72 6 8.7 13 INDIANAPOLIS PLAYOFF 2.8 10 -0.26 22 2.41 7 13.017 CINCINNATI PLAYOFF 0.1 16 -0.04 19 0.58 16 17 16 SAN DIEGO PLAYOFF 2.7 12 -0.37 25 1.19 13 16.718 ARIZONA PLAYOFF -1 19 0.04 17 0.51 17 17.7 20 GREEN BAY PLAYOFF -2.0 20 -0.01 16 -1.81 24 20.0


1 PITTSBURGH SB LOSER 9 3 1.16 1 8.83 3 2.3 1 GREEN BAY ? 9.0 2 0.86 3 3.52 4 3.02 NEW ENGLAND PLAYOFF 12.7 1 0.53 6 12.9 1 2.7 2 NEW ENGLAND ? 11.5 1 0.12 11 5.60 1 4.33 GREEN BAY SB CHAMP 10.3 2 0.82 4 10.5 2 2.7 3 KANSAS CITY ? 4.7 7 0.38 4 3.66 3 4.75 NY JETS AFC LOSER 5.2 4 0.63 5 4.81 7 5.3 4 SEATTLE ? 8.6 3 1.35 1 1.09 11 5.06 PHILADELPHIA PLAYOFF 3.5 7 1.03 3 4.08 8 6 5 BALTIMORE ? 5.7 5 0.15 10 3.44 5 6.77 BALTIMORE PLAYOFF 5 5 0.1 14 5.9 4 7.7 6 DENVER ? 7.8 4 1.31 2 0.15 18 8.08 CHICAGO NFC LOSER 3.2 9 0.25 10 3.49 9 9.3 8 DALLAS ? 4.7 6 0.01 16 2.14 7 9.710 INDIANAPOLIS PLAYOFF 1.8 10 0.16 12 2.79 11 11 11 INDIANAPOLIS ? 4.2 9 0.17 8 0.44 17 11.311 NEW ORLEANS PLAYOFF 0.5 13 -0.05 16 2.86 10 13 12 HOUSTON ? 2.7 11 -0.16 20 3.24 6 12.312 ATLANTA PLAYOFF 4.5 6 -0.78 28 5.67 6 13.3 13 CINCINNATI ? 1.2 17 0.06 14 1.77 9 13.320 KANSAS CITY PLAYOFF -2.5 18 -0.24 24 -0.16 17 19.7 14 DETROIT ? 1.5 15 0.24 6 -0.44 20 13.729 SEATTLE PLAYOFF -9.4 29 -0.82 29 -7.12 28 28.7 15 ARIZONA ? 2.0 14 -0.61 28 4.14 2 14.7

16 SAN DIEGO ? 1.3 16 -0.02 17 0.82 12 15.0EffStr - Effective Strength Indicator 19 PITTSBURGH ? 2.2 13 -0.17 21 -0.50 21 18.3Pts - Points 21 ATLANTA ? -0.7 18 -0.22 24 0.48 16 19.3YPP - Yards Per Play 27 CAROLINA ? -4.8 25 -0.38 25 -3.63 27 25.7YPPT - Yards Per Point

2010-11 SEASON 2014-15 SEASON



2013-14 SEASON2009-10 SEASON

8




Four different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the Weekly. In the chart below, you’ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained

manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team’s performance against varied schedule strengths. The Simulation is run using a formula factoring in a number of variables, most notably stats in recent games. Finally, the Bettors’ Ratings (Bettors’ Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team’s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors’ feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total.

BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?301 DETROIT 47.5 26 16.5 18.1 UNDER 21.0 302 GREEN BAY -7.5 31 -8.1 27.6 23.6 29.1 303 JACKSONVILLE 40 16 12.0 14.4 16.6 304 HOUSTON -10 23 -10.8 28.7 HOU 26.7 26.3 305 CINCINNATI 48 24 21.6 20.5 21.8 306 PITTSBURGH -3 27 -6.0 25.6 25.2 26.1 307 INDIANAPOLIS -6.5 27 30.1 IND 28.6 29.3 308 TENNESSEE 46 14 10.4 17.3 18.8 19.4 309 CLEVELAND 42.5 18 15.0 17.4 18.2 310 BALTIMORE -9 25 -9.6 27.1 25.4 26.4 311 BUFFALO 44 24 17.0 19.0 18.6 312 NEW ENGLAND -3.5 31 -10.0 28.8 27.2 26.3 313 NY JETS 41.5 19 15.5 17.9 19.4 314 MIAMI -5.5 24 -7.6 28.9 MIA 26.5 22.5 315 CAROLINA 48 21 20.0 20.9 21.9 316 ATLANTA -4 22 -3.5 27.1 25.4 26.3 317 CHICAGO 43.5 16 18.2 20.6 19.4 318 MINNESOTA -6.5 21 -7.9 27.8 25.1 27.4 319 SAN DIEGO 42 25 18.6 18.9 19.8 320 KANSAS CITY -3 26 -3.9 24.9 23.1 24.1 321 PHILADELPHIA 52 25 26.5 PHI 27.0 25.6 PHI322 NY GIANTS -3 22 -0.1 24.7 28.2 24.1 323 DALLAS -6.5 27 28.2 25.2 UNDER 26.9 324 WASHINGTON 49.5 17 7.3 18.7 19.8 18.8 325 NEW ORLEANS -4 23 25.3 26.2 27.6 326 TAMPA BAY 47 17 3.0 21.4 21.0 22.9 327 ST LOUIS 41 24 14.9 15.8 15.9 328 SEATTLE -13 31 -11.3 28.2 26.7 26.5 329 ARIZONA 36.5 21 19.5 ARI 18.1 15.4 330 SAN FRANCISCO -6 23 -4.9 19.7 20.1 23.8 331 OAKLAND 48 16 14.3 17.8 15.6 332 DENVER -14 31 -18.1 35.1 DEN 32.8 32.6

NFL STRENGTH RATINGS


9


(301) DETROIT [SU:11-4 | ATS:7-8] AT (302) GREEN BAY (-7.5 | 47.5) [SU:11-4 | ATS:8-6-1]DECEMBER 28, 2014 4:25 PM on FOX - LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DETROIT 20.1 19 25-87 [3.5] 38-23-255 [6.8] 17.0 16.8 19 21-64 [3.1] 38-24-232 [6.1] 17.6 +6 +3.3 GREEN BAY 30.4 22 27-118 [4.4] 34-22-269 [7.9] 12.7 21.9 21 28-121 [4.2] 35-21-228 [6.5] 15.9 +15 +8.5

With both teams tied, this is for the division championship and at least a No. 2 seed, with the loser falling to wild card status and having to play next week. Detroit holds the current edge having won the previous game 19-7 at home as one-point favorites in Week 3. The Lions defense continues to be the strength of the team, ranked third and league and they are seeking first division since 1993. Green Bay has to be thrilled to be back at Lambeau Field where they average 41.1 PPG and restart the offense which is moving the ball but not scoring. The Packers have not lost in the state of Wisconsin (includes Milwaukee games) to Detroit since 1991 (16-5-2 ATS).

GAME TRENDS• GREEN BAY is 8-1-1 ATS(CS) - On grass field• DETROIT is 2-10 ATS(L3Y) - In December• DETROIT is 9-1 UNDER(L2Y) on ROAD - Conference games

(303) JACKSONVILLE [SU:3-12 | ATS:5-9-1] AT (304) HOUSTON (-10 | 40) [SU:8-7 | ATS:9-5-1]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF JACKSONVILLE 15.5 17 23-101 [4.4] 35-21-193 [5.5] 19.0 25.9 20 31-127 [4.2] 34-22-244 [7.2] 14.3 -8 -10.4HOUSTON 23.3 19 34-136 [4.0] 30-18-208 [6.9] 14.8 19.3 21 27-104 [3.8] 39-23-252 [6.5] 18.4 +14 +4.0

Credit Bill O’Brien for a designing a game plan to play to QB Case Keenum strengths and the fabulous work of his defense to handle Baltimore with ease. Despite still being unstable at the quarterback position, Houston has a chance for a seven-game improvement under their first-year head coach and could move into contender stage in the AFC South. The Texans are 8-4 (7-4-1 ATS) hosting Jacksonville. The Jaguars defense made major strides this season and addressing the offense line is tantamount to give Blake Bortles a chance to improve. This will not help him against J.J. Watt and company this week. Jacksonville is 10-19-2 ATS since last season and could cover by making this a low scoring affair.

GAME TRENDS• HOUSTON is 7-3-1 ATS(CS) - Conference games• JACKSONVILLE is 2-8-1 ATS(L2Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 16.3 yards per

point(CS)• HOUSTON is 8-2 OVER(L3Y) - Against lesser-scoring teams averaging 18.5 PPG or less(CS)

(305) CINCINNATI [SU:10-4-1 | ATS:8-6-1] AT (306) PITTSBURGH (-3.5 | 48) [SU:10-5 | ATS:8-7]DECEMBER 28, 2014 8:30 PM on NBC - HEINZ FIELD (PITTSBURGH, PA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CINCINNATI 23.2 20 31-135 [4.4] 31-20-213 [6.9] 15.0 21.1 21 28-122 [4.4] 38-23-238 [6.3] 17.1 0 +2.1 PITTSBURGH 27.3 24 27-115 [4.3] 38-26-301 [7.9] 15.2 23.4 20 23-99 [4.4] 34-22-255 [7.6] 15.1 0 +3.9

For Pittsburgh, it is clear cut, win and they are AFC North champions and they host a playoff game next week. Either way the Steelers are playing postseason football and one cannot help but be impressed with how Pittsburgh overcame an inferior defense by their standards and coming together offensively under Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell in particular. Pitt will be more rested at home and is 7-2 ATS vs. the Bengals. Once again, Cincinnati showed what they are capable of after a complete performance in win over Denver. The Bengals ran the ball, defended well and did not make mistakes. Cincy will need the same formula to take down Big Ben and Pittsburgh to win the division.

GAME TRENDS• CINCINNATI is 8-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than 7.25 yards per

attempt(CS)• PITTSBURGH is 4-9 ATS(L5Y) - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 8.0 points per game(CS)• CINCINNATI is 8-2 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - Against poor passing defenses yielding more than 6.9

yards per attempt(CS)

NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



10




(307) INDIANAPOLIS (-7 | 46) [SU:10-5 | ATS:9-5-1] AT (308) TENNESSEE [SU:2-13 | ATS:3-11-1]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - LP FIELD (NASHVILLE, TN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF INDIANAPOLIS 28.7 24 26-103 [4.0] 42-26-305 [7.3] 14.2 23.9 20 27-111 [4.2] 34-20-241 [7.1] 14.7 -6 +4.8 TENNESSEE 16.3 17 22-87 [3.9] 32-19-224 [7.0] 19.1 27.4 23 32-142 [4.4] 34-22-231 [6.8] 13.6 -9 -11.1

Forget talking about the Colts going on a playoff run. It’s time to wonder if they’re even capable of winning a playoff game. Indianapolis has committed 15 turnovers in their last five games and has been soundly defeated by Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas, all quality teams. This week at Tennessee will do little fix Colts issues and with an offensive line in a constant state of flux, no truly reliable running game, all the pressure is on Andrew Luck to be perfect and he’s started forcing things. The Colts are 8-1 ATS off a road loss. Tennessee has lost nine in a row (2-7 ATS) and most likely just wants the season to conclude and start thinking about next year.

GAME TRENDS• INDIANAPOLIS is 12-0 ATS(L3Y) - Against pathetic defensive teams allowing more than 26.5

PPG(CS)• TENNESSEE is 1-13-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0

points per game(CS)• TENNESSEE is 9-3 OVER(L2Y) - AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 60%+ WINNING PCT(CS)

(309) CLEVELAND [SU:7-8 | ATS:8-6-1] AT (310) BALTIMORE (-9 | 42.5) [SU:9-6 | ATS:8-7]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - M&T BANK STADIUM (BALTIMORE, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEVELAND 19.3 19 30-108 [3.6] 32-17-221 [7.0] 17.0 21.1 22 31-142 [4.5] 37-21-220 [6.0] 17.2 +8 -1.8 BALTIMORE 25.9 22 28-126 [4.5] 35-21-235 [6.8] 13.9 19.5 20 24-87 [3.6] 38-25-255 [6.8] 17.5 0 +6.4

Joe Flacco threw incompletions on 17 of his first 20 passes and was intercepted three times in improbable loss to Houston, who started QB Case Keenum, who was on the practice squad the previous week. The usually “Joe Cool” got happy feet early and never found a rhythm. Baltimore’s only way to the postseason rests on beating Cleveland and receiving help from others. Going into the off-season, the Browns really have no idea if Johnny Manziel is their quarterback of the future or a future washout after just seven quarters and is uncertain this week with a hamstring. By now Browns brass knows Brian Hoyer is merely serviceable. The Under is 7-1 when these rival collide.

GAME TRENDS• BALTIMORE is 15-5 ATS(L20G) at HOME - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents

by more than 8.0 points per game(CS)• CLEVELAND is 6-18-1 ATS(L25G) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.75 yards per

carry(CS)• CLEVELAND is 10-2-1 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - In December

(311) BUFFALO [SU:8-7 | ATS:8-7] AT (312) NEW ENGLAND (-3.5 | 44) [SU:12-3 | ATS:9-6]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF BUFFALO 21.7 17 25-92 [3.7] 37-23-230 [6.2] 14.8 18.7 19 26-106 [4.1] 35-21-210 [6.0] 16.9 +8 +3.0 NEW ENGLAND 30.6 23 28-107 [3.9] 38-25-265 [6.9] 12.2 19.7 21 26-104 [4.1] 37-22-245 [6.7] 17.7 +11 +10.9

For the 15th consecutive year, Buffalo will not be playing after the regular season concludes, which they cemented themselves in falling Oakland. The Bills have a playoff caliber defense, but the fact coach Doug Marrone never went back to E.J. Manuel was telling. Buffalo has dumped six straight (2-4 ATS) to New England. The Patriots players and coaches were none too happy after 17-16 win over the Jets. New England has locked up the top seed AFC and has never been one to coast into the postseason with recent 7-0 (6-1 ATS) record in Week 17 before starting playoff football. The Patriots are 7-1 against the spread heading versus winning teams this season.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS(L14G) - Week #17 of the season• BUFFALO is 2-8 ATS(L3Y) on ROAD - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)• NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - In December




NFL MATCHUPS


11


(313) NY JETS [SU:3-12 | ATS:5-9-1] AT (314) MIAMI (-5.5 | 41.5) [SU:8-7 | ATS:7-8]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - SUN LIFE STADIUM (MIAMI, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NY JETS 16.4 18 32-145 [4.6] 31-18-170 [5.4] 19.2 25.1 18 25-87 [3.5] 33-21-236 [7.1] 12.9 -11 -8.7 MIAMI 24.3 23 25-113 [4.5] 37-25-234 [6.3] 14.3 22.4 19 28-122 [4.4] 34-21-211 [6.2] 14.9 +2 +1.9

Owner Stephen Ross said coach Joe Philbin was coming back after Miami’s impractical victory over Minnesota Sunday. That is probably a wise decision by Ross as the offense and defense were both generally improved and the Dolphins had three losses this season by four points or less to three playoff teams (Denver, Green Bay and Detroit). Miami will be after its first winning season in six years but is only 5-15 ATS at home after a win by three or less points. The Jets wasted yet another inspired defensive effort against New England and it is a foregone conclusion almost anyone that is involved in the day-to-day operations of the New York football on the field will be jettisoned.

GAME TRENDS• NY JETS is 10-2-2 ATS(L14G) - AT SUN LIFE STADIUM• MIAMI is 2-8 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.3 yards per

carry(CS)• MIAMI is 9-2 UNDER(L5Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 13.35 yards per

point(CS)

(315) CAROLINA [SU:6-8-1 | ATS:7-8] AT (316) ATLANTA (-4 | 48) [SU:6-9 | ATS:7-8]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on FOX - THE GEORGIA DOME (ATLANTA, GA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CAROLINA 20.3 22 29-123 [4.2] 35-21-227 [6.4] 17.2 24.7 20 25-115 [4.5] 34-22-228 [6.6] 13.9 0 -4.4 ATLANTA 25.2 21 24-96 [4.0] 39-26-289 [7.4] 15.3 25.5 23 28-113 [4.1] 37-23-291 [7.9] 15.8 +8 -0.3

While the rest of football might be critical of the NFC South, one of these two teams will be a division champion and hosting as wild card game next weekend. Cam Newton gave a gritty performance in victory over Cleveland and will try and lead Carolina to becoming the first-ever team in this division to repeat. If Atlanta were to win this confrontation, they would be 6-0 in division play and 1-9 against everyone else this season. The Falcons will need a similar defensive effort as last week to emerge victorious, with an actual pass rush (tied 30th) and needing to contain RB James Stewart. Atlanta is 14-5 and 12-6-1 ATS when Carolina visits the Georgia Dome the last 19 years.

GAME TRENDS• CAROLINA is 19-5-1 ATS(L25G) - Against anemic teams being outscored by opponents by more

than 8.0 points per game(CS)• ATLANTA is 4-7 ATS(CS) - On non-grass field• CAROLINA is 9-2 OVER(L3Y) on ROAD - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 6.75

yards per attempt(CS)

(317) CHICAGO [SU:5-10 | ATS:6-9] AT (318) MINNESOTA (-6.5 | 43.5) [SU:6-9 | ATS:10-5]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on FOX - TCF BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CHICAGO 20.7 21 22-89 [4.0] 38-25-242 [6.3] 16.0 28.6 21 26-112 [4.3] 35-23-269 [7.7] 13.3 -6 -7.9 MINNESOTA 20.8 18 25-112 [4.4] 33-20-204 [6.2] 15.2 22.3 21 29-123 [4.3] 33-22-227 [6.8] 15.7 0 -1.5

Minnesota lost, won and ultimately defeated themselves at Miami in a wild game 37-35. The Vikings have covered the spread five straight times and could easily have won four times compared to the two they have ended up with. Teddy Bridgewater continues to shine and will have opportunities against Chicago’s 30th ranked defense. In the NFL, a loss is a loss, but at least this time nobody was complaining about the Bears quarterback being the problem. With Jimmy Clausen out with a concussion, Jay Cutler returns to the starting lineup and it will be worth watching to see how his teammates respond to him. Chicago is an unsightly 13-30 ATS the final four weeks of the season.

GAME TRENDS• MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS(L3Y) - In December• CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS(L3Y) - VS NFC-NORTH• CHICAGO is 9-2 OVER(L2Y) on ROAD - AS underdog of 7 or less points




NFL MATCHUPS

12




(319) SAN DIEGO [SU:9-6 | ATS:7-8] AT (320) KANSAS CITY (-3 | 42) [SU:8-7 | ATS:9-5-1]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on CBS - ARROWHEAD STADIUM (KANSAS CITY, MO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF SAN DIEGO 22.7 20 25-84 [3.4] 36-24-257 [7.1] 15.0 21.9 19 28-125 [4.5] 33-20-219 [6.6] 15.7 -2 +0.8 KANSAS CITY 22.3 20 26-120 [4.6] 31-20-203 [6.5] 14.5 18.3 19 27-128 [4.7] 34-20-200 [5.9] 17.9 -6 +4.0

The Chiefs lack of playmakers has placed them in the crosshairs of missing the playoffs. Kansas City’s well documented - does not have touchdown from the wide receiver position this season - and other than Jamaal Charles, has no other truly explosive player on offense. Thus against better competition and playing in front an injury-ravaged offensive line, Alex Smith has nowhere to turn. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS having dropped four of five. San Diego has won its last two visits into K.C. and third consecutive such victory assures the Chargers of more football and consecutive playoff appearances under second-year coach Mike McCoy. San Diego’s injury plight is essentially the same as the Chiefs except having players making plays when needed.

GAME TRENDS• SAN DIEGO is 9-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against strong defensive teams allowing less than 18.5 PPG(CS)• KANSAS CITY is 3-12 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - as favorite of 7 or less points• KANSAS CITY is 15-3 UNDER(L5Y) at HOME - Against lesser defensive teams yielding more than

5.6 yards per play(CS)

(321) PHILADELPHIA [SU:9-6 | ATS:8-6-1] AT (322) NY GIANTS (-3 | 52) [SU:6-9 | ATS:7-8]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on FOX - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PHILADELPHIA 29.3 22 30-122 [4.1] 39-24-273 [7.0] 13.5 24.9 21 30-113 [3.8] 36-21-254 [7.1] 14.7 -9 +4.4 NY GIANTS 23.6 21 28-102 [3.6] 37-24-256 [6.9] 15.2 24.4 20 27-133 [4.9] 32-20-239 [7.4] 15.2 -2 -0.8

The evening of Thanksgiving, it was all sweet potatoes for Philadelphia, sitting at 9-3 after beating Dallas 33-10, with two home games ahead and simple trip wallowing Washington. Instead, the Eagles became mashed potatoes in losing to Seattle and the Cowboys and officially fell out of the playoff picture with unthinkable setback to Redskins. Coach Chip Kelly and his team certainly would not want to close with the four consecutive losses heading to New Jersey. It has not been a good season for the Giants at 6-9 (7-8 ATS), but has the chance to finish 4-0 SU and ATS build optimism heading into 2015. Eli Manning to Odell Beckham Jr. is a good place to start.

GAME TRENDS• NY GIANTS is 8-4 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - VS OPP with more than 6 days rest• PHILADELPHIA is 3-10 ATS(L5Y) on ROAD - Against inept passing defenses yielding more than

7.25 yards per attempt(CS)• PHILADELPHIA is 14-3-1 OVER(L18G) - Against weak rushing defenses yielding more than 4.7

yards per carry(CS)

(323) DALLAS (-6.5 | 49.5) [SU:11-4 | ATS:9-6] AT (324) WASHINGTON [SU:4-11 | ATS:4-10-1]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on FOX - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DALLAS 28.2 21 32-145 [4.5] 29-20-232 [7.9] 13.4 22.3 20 25-103 [4.2] 34-23-248 [7.2] 15.7 +4 +5.9 WASHINGTON 18.9 20 25-106 [4.2] 34-22-249 [7.4] 18.8 26.3 19 26-103 [3.9] 32-22-246 [7.6] 13.3 -9 -7.4

The Cowboys are division champions and have to determine if they want to continue they fine play at Washington or just use it as exercise as they presumably will the third-seed in the NFC. Dallas is a dangerous foe with the ability to dominate the ball with their ferocious running game and put a stake in the opposing team’s heart throwing the ball down the field. Though outgained by 190 yards, Washington was thrilled to end their six-game losing streak against Philadelphia. If Robert Griffin III returns next season, he has to work to become a more polished quarterback and head coach Jay Gruden has to be less rigid and be more adaptable. That process can start here.

GAME TRENDS• DALLAS is 8-4 ATS(L3Y) - On grass field• WASHINGTON is 4-13-1 ATS(L2Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points• WASHINGTON is 9-2 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - Against strong offensive teams averaging more than

5.8 yards per play(CS)




NFL MATCHUPS


13


(325) NEW ORLEANS (-4 | 47) [SU:6-9 | ATS:6-9] AT (326) TAMPA BAY [SU:2-13 | ATS:6-9]DECEMBER 28, 2014 1:00 PM on FOX - RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM (TAMPA, FL)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEW ORLEANS 25.2 25 26-117 [4.6] 41-29-300 [7.2] 16.5 26.9 22 27-129 [4.8] 35-22-261 [7.5] 14.5 -11 -1.7 TAMPA BAY 17.1 16 21-79 [3.8] 34-19-213 [6.3] 17.1 25.8 22 30-116 [3.9] 35-24-254 [7.3] 14.3 -10 -8.7

From supposed Super Bowl contenders to playing out the string for New Orleans. After losing at home for the fifth time this season (2-6 ATS), the Saints head to Tampa Bay and will begin the soul-searching process and determine how much change is needed to return to division champions. The offensive line, defensive secondary have to be a priority. With New Orleans such a small favorite at Tampa, it tells you what oddsmakers think about the Saints. The Buccaneers slogged their way through the season without an offensive coordinator (Jeff Tedford illness) and it was not a coincidence they were among the worst offensive teams in the NFL. Tampa Bay is 0-6 (2-4 ATS) recently versus the Saints.

GAME TRENDS• NEW ORLEANS is 9-4 ATS(L3Y) - Against poor rushing teams averaging less than 3.8 yards per

carry(CS)• TAMPA BAY is 3-14 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - Conference games• NEW ORLEANS is 19-6 OVER(L25G) on ROAD - AGAINST POOR TEAMS WITH 30%+ WINNING

PCT(CS)

(327) ST LOUIS [SU:6-9 | ATS:7-8] AT (328) SEATTLE (-13 | 41) [SU:11-4 | ATS:9-6]DECEMBER 28, 2014 4:25 PM on FOX - CENTURYLINK FIELD (SEATTLE, WA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ST LOUIS 21.2 18 25-106 [4.2] 32-20-213 [6.7] 15.0 22.3 19 26-109 [4.2] 34-23-243 [7.1] 15.8 -1 -1.1 SEATTLE 24.9 21 33-175 [5.4] 29-18-202 [7.1] 15.1 16.5 17 24-84 [3.5] 31-19-184 [5.9] 16.2 +9 +8.4

With five straight convincing wins and covers, Seattle very much looks like the same team that won a Super Bowl last season and will be favored at this point to do so again. The Seahawks defense is strangling opposing offenses and the offense is executing more consistently than anytime not only this year, but arguably even last season. Seattle is 11-3 (9-5 ATS) with Seattle in town. After playing sound football for weeks, St. Louis has played awful the last two and looks to be no match for the sizzling Seahawks. The best the Rams can hope now is their third consecutive seven-win season and fourth in the last five, seeking new answers in the off-season.

GAME TRENDS• SEATTLE is 13-2 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - VS NFC-WEST• ST LOUIS is 3-14 ATS(L17G) on ROAD - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0

yards per play(CS)• ST LOUIS is 11-1 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - In December

(329) ARIZONA [SU:11-4 | ATS:10-5] AT (330) SAN FRANCISCO (-6 | 36.5) [SU:7-8 | ATS:5-9-1]DECEMBER 28, 2014 4:25 PM on FOX - LEVIS STADIUM (SANTA CLARA, CA)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ARIZONA 19.5 18 25-81 [3.3] 35-20-234 [6.6] 16.2 18.6 19 24-102 [4.2] 37-23-264 [7.2] 19.7 +11 +0.9 SAN FRANCISCO 19.1 19 29-131 [4.5] 31-18-192 [6.2] 16.9 21.5 19 25-101 [4.0] 34-20-215 [6.3] 14.7 +4 -2.4

Arizona understands it’s in trouble despite making the postseason. Ryan Lindley’s NFL-record streak of 225 pass attempts without a touchdown tells you all you need to know and they desperately turn to rookie Logan Thomas. Arizona is built to throw the ball down the field and compliment that tact with running game designed on hitting the whole quick. With no medium or deep passing game, opposing teams can stuff the run. The Cards are 3-11 and 5-9 ATS when visiting the 49ers. San Francisco held two significant leads over San Diego gained the third-most rushing yards in team history and still found a way to lose to San Diego. With the winds of change howling, San Francisco tries to finish .500.

GAME TRENDS• SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 70%+ WINNING PCT(CS)• ARIZONA is 17-28-1 ATS(L46G) on ROAD - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than

4.3 yards per carry(CS)• ARIZONA is 11-2-1 UNDER(L2Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points


NFL MATCHUPS

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIFOffensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF



14




(331) OAKLAND [SU:3-12 | ATS:8-7] AT (332) DENVER (-14.5 | 48) [SU:11-4 | ATS:7-8]DECEMBER 28, 2014 4:25 PM on CBS - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 Season PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF OAKLAND 15.9 16 21-78 [3.7] 40-23-210 [5.3] 18.1 27.0 20 30-118 [4.0] 33-21-233 [7.0] 13.0 -14 -11.1DENVER 29.0 22 27-110 [4.0] 38-25-290 [7.7] 13.8 22.7 20 22-81 [3.7] 40-25-232 [5.7] 13.8 +4 +6.3

For Oakland, the mission is clear after three straight home wins to conclude that part of the schedule. The Raiders have lost 10 consecutive road games and 21 of the last 23 (11-12-1 ATS) and would like to conclude this portion of futility before the next wave of change surrounding this franchise occurs. Oakland is 0-6 and 0-5-1 ATS against Denver since Nov. 6, 2011. You cannot help but wonder if something is wrong with Peyton Manning. Sure he’s had four interception games before, but the passes have even more wobble despite putting up 28 points in loss to Cincinnati. Denver needs this win to keep No. 2 seed in the AFC and have a bye week to get some rest.

GAME TRENDS• DENVER is 10-3 ATS(L3Y) - In December• OAKLAND is 2-9-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per

play(CS)• DENVER is 10-3-1 OVER(L5Y) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.0 yards per

attempt(CS)


NFL MATCHUPS


15


The NFL regular season concludes while the college football bowl season starts to really percolate. Here are the early line moves for this week’s gridiron action.

CFB –WEDNESDAY (219) FRESNO STATE VS. (220) RICE 8:00 ET ESPN Though Fresno State was a division champion out of the Mountain West, they were not close to being the same unit as last year’s crew and comes into the bowl with a 6-7 record. Bettors are not impressed with the Bulldogs offense or defense and switched allegiance, taking Rice from +1.5 to -2. This could matter since the Owls are 7-1 ATS as favorites this season. Our Take – Rice covers

CFB –FRIDAY (221) ILLINOIS VS. (222) LOUISIANA TECH 1:00 ET ESPNThe total has tumbled from 62 to 58 and it is not obvious why. The average score of both teams’ games is over 60 points and both offenses appear capable of exploiting the other squad’s weakness on defense. The only other aspect that makes sense is Louisiana Tech has generated 40 turnovers and Illinois is -9 in turnover margin which could curtail their scoring. Our Take – Play Over

CFB – SATURDAY (229) DUKE VS. (230) ARIZONA STATE 2:00 ET CBSWhen you think of these two teams, offense is what comes to mind. Yet the total has slipped from 68 to 66.5 and here is a possible explanation. Both defenses allow more than 400 yards, however, when you review the – yards per point – statistic, Duke is an exceptional 5th in the country and Arizona State is a respectable 49th, which should generate more field goals than originally thought. Our Take – Play Under

CFB – SATURDAY (231) MIAMI-FL VS. (232) SOUTH CAROLINA 3:30 ET ABCMiami has blown up from a Pick to -3.5 against South Carolina. Certainly part of the reason is the Hurricanes have a startling 106 yards edge in defense. One can assume RB Duke Johnson and Miami wants to run on Gamecocks defense allowing over 210 YPG on the ground. Another factor is historically teams on extended losing streaks and non-covers (0-3 in this case) are normally productive wagers. Our Take – Miami covers

CFB – SATURDAY (235) NEBRASKA VS. (236) USC 8:00 ET ESPNTeams with interim coaches are normally bad bets as we can see in last 24 occurrences (5-19 SU and 8-16 ATS). This is why bowl game bettors had no problem moving Nebraska from +5.5 to +7. Barney Cotton will do his best to make it as seamless as possible for the Cornhuskers, but it figures to come down to Nebraska coughing up the ball and USC’s run defense. Our Take – Lean USC

NFL – (309) CLEVELAND AT (310) BALTIMORE 1:00 ET CBSThe rivalry has been about hard-hitting football and defense. Since they started playing in 1999, only once has the total closed over 44 points (2012) and the UNDER is on a serious 9-2 move. Little wonder the number has fallen from 42.5 to 41.5 with the history involved in this matchup. Cleveland averaging 11.7 PPG the last month makes this easier to swallow. Our Take – Play Under

NFL – (315) CAROLINA AT (316) ATLANTA 4:25 ET FOXThis game epitomizes why people love the NFL. Two weeks ago Carolina and Atlanta were ready to be buried for 2014, but in the matter of one week, they convene for the NFC South title. Those betting football are certain the string of this division never having a repeat champion will continue and moved Atlanta from -3 to -4. Our Take – Atlanta covers

NFL – (323) DALLAS AT (324) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET FOXThough nothing official has been heard, Jerry Jones said after the Cowboys crushing win over Indianapolis, he doesn’t like teams that treat Week 17 as a “bye week” heading into the playoffs. Evidently that has convinced enough football bettors to back Dallas, who is up from -5 to -6.5. However, Washington is 8-1 ATS in this matchup since 2010. Our Take – Lean Washington

NFL – (329) ARIZONA AT (330) SAN FRANCISCO 4:25 ET FOXEvidently rookie QB Logan Thomas is a worse option than Ryan Lindley for Arizona, at least to bettors, as they lifted the Cardinals from +4 to +6 at San Francisco. Hard to imagine the 49ers state of mind after the season they have endured and coaching rumors that have haunted them. The Niners 9-5 ATS record at home against Arizona. Our Take – Lean San Francisco

CFB – MONDAY (237) WEST VIRGINIA VS. (238) TEXAS A&M 2:00 ET ESPNOf all the bowls, this one had the biggest early line move concerning totals. This one exploded literally the day it was released from 64 to 67, which sent a message wise guys were all over the original number. Though both defenses allow less than 28 points per contest, when they faced teams that could score like them, points were plentiful, expect the same here. Our Take – Play Over

CFB – MONDAY (239) CLEMSON VS. (240) OKLAHOMA 5:30 ET ESPNThis was not your normal line move; it was more a function of personnel. With the news WR Sterling Shepard, RB Samaje Perine and QB Trevor Knight have all been elevated to ‘Probable’ status, Oklahoma shot up from a Pick to -3.5. Despite Clemson’s outstanding defense, without QB Deshaun Watson, the Tigers offense is not as productive. Our Take – Oklahoma covers

RECORDS:Bowls – 3-1College – 56-49-1 NFL - 32-30-2

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES

16




BAHAMAS BOWL(217) C MICHIGAN [SU:7-5 | ATS:5-7] VS (218) W KENTUCKY (-4 | 68.5) [SU:7-5 | ATS:6-6]DECEMBER 24, 2014 12:00 PM on ESPN - THOMAS ROBINSON STADIUM (NASSAU, )[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF C MICHIGAN 25.2 22 40-159 [4.0] 28-18-222 [7.9] 15.1 23.2 18 33-120 [3.6] 32-18-211 [6.7] 14.3 -6 +2.0 W KENTUCKY 44.0 27 33-162 [4.9] 43-29-365 [8.5] 12.0 39.2 26 46-230 [5.0] 31-20-272 [8.7] 12.8 +6 +4.8

In most circles, Central Michigan should have been better than 7-5 (5-7 ATS) because they had an experienced defense and enough skill position players to accomplish more. Former Michigan RB Thomas Rawls will be the Chippewas player that will catch your eye. CMU does have a good defensive squad which finished 16th nationally, but did allow more points versus better offenses. Western Kentucky made national headlines in ending Marshall’s perfect season in a wild 67-66 thriller. The Hilltoppers average 44 PPG and 525.3 YPG (No. 6), lead by senior QB Brandon Doughty. Western Kentucky is third in the country is passing yards at 365 per contest. RB Leon Allen adds balance to the offense, rushing for 1,490 yards. Why the Hilltoppers were only 7-5 (6-6 ATS) is they have one of the worst defenses in the FBS, surrendering over 500 yards a game and 39.2 PPG.

GAME TRENDS• C MICHIGAN is 8-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against inept defensive teams yielding more than 6.3 yards per

play(CS)• W KENTUCKY is 5-11 ATS(L2Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)• W KENTUCKY is 9-2 OVER(CS) - OU line of 60 or more STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?217 C MICHIGAN 66 34 29.0 29.0 UNDER 30.3 UNDER218 W KENTUCKY -3 38 -4.5 33.5 29.5 30.2 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNChristmas Eve afternoon in Nassua, Bahamas is the tropical stage for this inaugural bowl game. It’s actually a rematch of the 2012 Little Caesars Bowl in Ford Field -- a 24-21 Chippewas’ win in Dan Enos’ only other bowl appearance in five seasons. The Hilltoppers finished 7-5 in Jeff Brohm’s first season, including a perfect-season-spoiling 67-66 win over Marshall. VI PICKS

BEST BET Paul says: Western Kentucky averages 44 points a game and can score on anybody with its terrific passing game which was one of the best in the country. While Central Michigan had a fine season, they only averaging 25 points a contest, which should make it difficult for them even if the Hilltoppers defense is among the worst in the country. I also believe the Chippewas defense is a little overrated, while their yardage numbers look very good, they only held opposing teams to just one point below their season average. Too much offense from Western Kentucky who keeps the pressure on CMU and wins by 10.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Wednesday, December 24, 2014 - (217) C MICHIGAN vs. (218) W KENTUCKY (-3)W

Kentucky

C

Michigan

W

Kentucky*

W

Kentucky

W

Kentucky

C

Michigan

C

Michigan

W Kentucky




17


HAWAII BOWL(219) FRESNO ST [SU:6-7 | ATS:7-6] VS (220) RICE (-2 | 60) [SU:7-5 | ATS:8-4]

DECEMBER 24, 2014 8:00 PM on ESPN - ALOHA STADIUM (HONOLULU, HI)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF FRESNO ST 28.1 22 40-184 [4.6] 38-22-235 [6.2] 14.9 32.6 20 44-207 [4.7] 29-17-249 [8.6] 14.0 -5 -4.5 RICE 28.7 20 44-171 [3.9] 27-16-224 [8.2] 13.8 30.3 20 35-152 [4.4] 31-17-245 [7.8] 13.1 +6 -1.6

Fresno State enters the bowl fray as the only team with a losing record (6-7, 7-6 ATS) and slipped in because they had a .500 regular season record before losing to Boise State in the MWC championship game. The Bulldogs do deserve some credit since they had to win their last three games to take their division. Fresno State is ordinary on offense (28.1 PPG) and below average on defense (32.6), but should not be lacking for motivation with a recent 0-5 SU and ATS bowl record. Rice began 0-3 and had a 3.5 percent chance of making it to a bowl (18 of 508 since 1980) game. But the Owls responded by winning six straight and had a chance to repeat as C-USA West champs, before falling to Louisiana Tech. Don’t think the game will not matter to Rice since they have only reached 8-wins three times in the last two decades.

GAME TRENDS• RICE is 9-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against lesser passing defenses yielding more than 7.5 yards per

attempt(CS)• FRESNO ST is 4-8 ATS(S2000) - In December Bowl Games• RICE is 9-1 OVER(L5Y) - Against poor defensive teams yielding more than 6.0 yards per play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?219 FRESNO ST 59 35 28.9 28.8 30.8 FST220 RICE -1 33 2 28.8 29.2 26.8

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese teams matched in the Christmas Eve Hawai’i Bowl played five consecutive seasons (2000-2004) as Western Athletic Conference members. All five matchups finished over the total. The Bulldogs won all five meetings SU, but the Owls held a 3-2 ATS advantage, covering as dogs of 6, 16.5 and 20 points. The Bulldogs have lost their last five bowl games, including two under Tim DeRuyter. VI PICKS

BEST BET Jason says: I consider myself a big stat guy in college football and some stats can be quite revealing. Looking beyond the obvious facts like Fresno State is 6-7 and not very good, their defense has to be a big concern heading into the Hawaii Bowl matchup against Rice. One particular defensive stat jumps out at me the most…8.6 yards per pass attempt allowed. Now granted, the Bulldogs have faced some good passing attacks throughout the season, but in truth, they’ve been shredded by mediocre ones too. Rice has been a big play passing team all year, averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Fresno is 2.0 yards less than that. That big play capability will be the difference. Take Rice

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Wednesday, December 24, 2014 - (219) FRESNO ST vs. (220) RICE (-1)Fresno St Rice Rice Fresno St Fresno St Fresno St Fresno St Fresno St



18




HEART OF DALLAS BOWL(221) ILLINOIS [SU:6-6 | ATS:5-7] VS (222) LOUISIANA TECH (-6 | 58) [SU:8-5 | ATS:10-3]

DECEMBER 26, 2014 1:00 PM on ESPN - COTTON BOWL (DALLAS, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF ILLINOIS 26.6 18 32-117 [3.7] 35-22-243 [6.9] 13.5 33.9 23 49-250 [5.1] 28-17-215 [7.5] 13.7 -2 -7.3 LOUISIANA TECH 37.5 20 35-151 [4.3] 34-20-253 [7.5] 10.8 25.2 19 36-118 [3.3] 37-22-238 [6.4] 14.1 +15 +12.3

With Illinois head coach Tim Beckman considered all but a goner after 2-10, 4-8 and 4-6 this season after Iowa spanked his squad 30-14 in Champaign, the team did become the Fighting Illini in winning last two games to finish 6-6 (5-7 ATS). Illinois showed some earlier they were improved in upsetting Minnesota and covering versus Wisconsin. Problem for this bowl is 112th ranked defense which was 120th against the run at 249.6 YPG. Louisiana Tech nearly won the C-USA title, just falling short on the road at Marshall 26-23. The Bulldogs were 10-3 ATS on the year but had some odd losses to Northwestern State and Old Dominion. The Louisiana Tech defense was special in one category with 40 turnovers, which was the best in the country. This is just the Bulldogs fourth bowl game in two decades and should be fired up for a Big Ten opponent.

GAME TRENDS• LOUISIANA TECH is 8-2 ATS(L5Y) - Non-conference VS BIG 5• ILLINOIS is 4-12 ATS(L3Y) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per point(CS)• ILLINOIS is 9-2 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?221 ILLINOIS 61.5 39 22.9 25.9 UNDER 25.9 UNDER222 LOUISIANA TECH -6 45 -6.5 34.9 LT 30.0 27.5 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThis Heart of Dallas Bowl matchup in the Cotton Bowl is a rematch of the 2012 non-conference tilt in which the Bulldogs went into Champaign and put a 52-24 whipping on the Illini as 3-point dogs, falling just short of a 57 total by themselves. LT’s Skip Holtz is 2-3 SU bowls. This is Tim Beckman’s first bowl game in three seasons with the Illini. VI PICKS

BEST BET Paul say: Nice work by Illinois to become bowl eligible and secure a bid, but they are running into the wrong type of opponent is Dallas. The Fighting Illini surrendered 250 yards a game to opposing teams on the ground and in Louisiana Tech’s last four contests, they averaged over 200 yards a game, including controlling Marshall in the C-USA championship by rushing for 196 yards. Plus, the Bulldogs have the opportunity to knock off a Big Ten team and despite being favored, coach Skip Holtz will use the “respect” card and have is club fired up to win by 10 or more.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Friday, December 26, 2014 - (221) ILLINOIS vs. (222) LOUISIANA TECH (-6)Illinois* Illinois* Louisiana

Tech*

Louisiana

Tech

Louisiana

Tech

Illinois Illinois Louisiana Tech




19


QUICK LANE BOWL(223) RUTGERS [SU:7-5 | ATS:7-5] VS (224) NORTH CAROLINA (-3 | 67) [SU:6-6 | ATS:5-7]

DECEMBER 26, 2014 4:30 PM on ESPN - FORD FIELD (DETROIT, MI)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF RUTGERS 25.6 18 37-148 [4.0] 28-16-231 [8.2] 14.8 30.9 21 38-213 [5.6] 30-17-228 [7.7] 14.3 -4 -5.3 NORTH CAROLINA 34.2 24 38-145 [3.8] 39-24-280 [7.2] 12.4 38.9 24 46-232 [5.0] 31-18-263 [8.5] 12.7 +2 -4.7

Checked our preseason notes and all seven football annuals we purchased had Rutgers finishing last in the Big Ten East, thus going to this bowl game a reason celebration at 7-5 SU and ATS. The Scarlet Knights had problems with the upper echelon of the conference, but QB Gary Nova and a big-play passing game allowed them to have success against similarly talented foes, like they will face in this contest. The opposite ended up being true about North Carolina compared to Rutgers, as the Tar Heels were the consensus choice to win the Coastal Division and were never in the chase thanks to a defense conceding 38.9 PPG. On offense, North Carolina has scored 34.2 PPG as Marquise Williams blossomed as a dual-threat quarterback. The knock on the Heels is they lack discipline under coach Larry Fedora. What North Carolina shows up for this bowl contest is anyone’s guess.

GAME TRENDS• RUTGERS is 6-1-1 ATS(S2000) - In Bowl Games• NORTH CAROLINA is 3-7 ATS(CS) - VS Non-ranked team• RUTGERS is 11-3 UNDER(L5Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?223 RUTGERS 66.5 38 31.1 32.4 26.7 UNDER224 NORTH CAROLINA -3 43 -4.8 34.1 32.6 33.5 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe inaugural Quick Lane Bowl follows the MAC Championship game into Ford Field in Detroit. The Scarlet Knights and Tar Heels have met four times (2006-2011), with a 2-2 ATS split, a 4-0 ATS mark for road teams, and Under’s going 3-1. Larry Fedora won his UNC bowl debut last season, and is 3-2 SU overall in bowls. Rutgers’ Kyle Flood is 0-2 SU in bowls. VI PICKS

BEST BET From our Bowl Guide: I am one to believe that explosive offense drive bowl games to high scoring levels, not porous defenses. I gauge the offenses of both North Carolina and Rutgers to be somewhat average. They’ve also been inconsistent. Rutgers was held to 10 points or less on three different occasions this season, and UNC closed the regular season out with a 7-point offensive effort against NC State. Now, both teams showed the capability of putting up numbers this season with the ball, however, I’d rather rely on the full body of average offensive work when considering the available wagering options on a lofty total like 66. I also think this particular bowl game tends to lend itself to the Christmas hangover effect. I’ll go UNDER here.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Friday, December 26, 2014 - (223) RUTGERS vs. (224) NORTH CAROLINA (-3)Rutgers Rutgers Rutgers North

Carolina

North

Carolina

Rutgers North

Carolina

Rutgers



20




ST PETERSBURG BOWL(225) NC STATE [SU:7-5 | ATS:7-5] VS (226) UCF (-2 | 49) [SU:9-3 | ATS:8-4]

DECEMBER 26, 2014 8:00 PM on ESPN - TROPICANA FIELD (TAMPA, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NC STATE 29.8 21 38-206 [5.4] 29-17-196 [6.7] 13.5 27.0 21 41-176 [4.3] 29-17-197 [6.7] 13.8 +5 +2.8 UCF 28.2 20 41-132 [3.2] 30-17-231 [7.6] 12.9 17.9 16 32-97 [3.1] 34-19-185 [5.4] 15.8 -1 +10.3

Central Florida (9-3, 8-4 ATS) makes the trip across the state to St. Petersburg to play in this bowl for the third time in six years. The Knights started 0-2 coming off their Fiesta Bowl season and understood replacing Blake Bortles was not going to be simple. Central Florida tied for the AAC title because of its No.3 rated defense which can stop the run or pass. Offensively, the Knights improved as the season wore on; however, in eight of their 12 assignments they committed two or more turnovers. N.C. State ended being one of many teams which could have knocked off Florida State but did not. That defeat sent the Wolfpack into a tailspin, yet this young club dug deep and closed 3-1 and was 4-1 ATS in their last five outings to win seven times. Keep an eye on N.C. State QB Jacoby Brissett; he might be the difference in the bowl battle.

GAME TRENDS• UCF is 9-2 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)• NC STATE is 4-10-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5 yards per

attempt(CS)• NC STATE is 8-2 UNDER(L5Y) - Against shutdown passing defenses yielding less than 5.9 yards per

attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?225 NC STATE 49.5 43 26.8 OVER 26.2 27.0 OVER226 UCF -1.5 45 -2.8 28.9 23.6 28.0 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe Knights will have home-state advantage in this Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl matchup. Two previous meetings were tight and resulted in road upsets: The Wolfpack won 28-21 as 3-point dogs in 2010, and the Knights won 25-23 as 7.5-point dogs in 2007. George O’Leary is 3-3 SU in bowls at UCF, winning his last three. Dave Doeren is 1-0 SU/ATS in bowls. VI PICKS

BEST BET Consensus says: This is another game where our experts didn’t get a whole lot of buzz out of the line or total when it was released. In all, the consensus group had a slight lean to NC State with a 4-3 margin. UCF is playing within an hour or so of its campus, so is the designated and regional home team and that could prove important, as the team with that designation is a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS in the history of this series. The Knights are also a slight favorite, and the chalk boasts a record of 5-1 SU & ATS, winning each time by double-digit margins. However, our ratings seem to be going against the grain, trusting the conference strength edge of NC State, as well as the motivation the Wolfpack figures to get from being an underdog.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Friday, December 26, 2014 - (225) NC STATE vs. (226) UCF (-1.5)NC State NC State UCF UCF UCF NC State NC State UCF




21


MILITARY BOWL(227) VIRGINIA TECH [SU:6-6 | ATS:5-7] VS (228) CINCINNATI (-2.5 | 51) [SU:9-3 | ATS:7-4-1]DECEMBER 27, 2014 1:00 PM on ESPN - NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUM (ANNAPOLIS, MD)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF VIRGINIA TECH 23.3 20 38-142 [3.7] 36-21-225 [6.3] 15.8 20.4 16 38-145 [3.9] 29-14-187 [6.5] 16.3 -6 +2.9 CINCINNATI 35.4 24 35-158 [4.5] 38-23-300 [7.9] 12.9 26.8 22 38-181 [4.8] 36-22-266 [7.4] 16.7 +4 +8.6

This bowl battles will feature a stunning contrast. With Gunner Kiel at the helm, Cincinnati has the far superior passing game and averaged 90 more yards of offense than Virginia Tech. The Hokies defense finished 17th nationally, which is remarkable given the turnovers the offense committed and their defense allowed 115 fewer yards than the Bearcats. As the season progressed, it was obvious why Michael Brewer was not able to become the starting signal caller at Texas Tech. Brewer stared down receivers and when pressured, would heave jump balls ripe for picking. The Hokies defense will get a stern test from a Cincy offense that moves the pigskin. The Bearcats defense looked to be improving late in the season until Houston hung almost 600 yards on them. Virginia Tech is nowhere near that explosive, thus it should help this bunch. Watch for both teams to blitz frequently to see how quarterbacks react.

GAME TRENDS• CINCINNATI is 10-4 ATS(L3Y) - Against inefficient offenses averaging more than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)• VIRGINIA TECH is 5-14-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7

yards per play(CS)• CINCINNATI is 11-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against lesser passing teams averaging less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?227 VIRGINIA TECH 51 43 26.9 29.1 OVER 32.8 VT228 CINCINNATI -2.5 47 -4.3 27.8 29.0 21.9 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNUnderdogs are 3-0 ATS in this series that will continue in the Military Bowl in Annapolis. The Bearcats won 27-24 as 6-point dogs in 2012. The Hokies pulled a 20-7 upset as 2.5-point dogs in the 2009 New Year’s Day Orange Bowl. Frank Beamer’s consecutive bowl run extends to 22 in a row, but he has slipped to 9-12 SU with a 1-3 SU slide. VI PICKS

BEST BET Jason says: Virginia Tech as a recent history of not showing up offensively for bowl games, as the Hokies have scored just 14.3 PPG. Three of those games were expected to be rough and tumble affairs played close to the vest. In this one, their offense is going to have to show up, and Cincinnati and QB Gunner Kiel have been on fire, scoring 37.1 PPG during their current 7-game winning streak. In truth, with a 6-6 record, this is probably the worst of Frank Beamer’s bowl teams at Tech. Cincinnati has a lot to prove by knocking off an ACC team and will play like it does. Bearcats cruise.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Saturday, December 27, 2014 - (227) VIRGINIA TECH vs. (228) CINCINNATI (-2.5)Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Cincinnati Virginia

Tech

Virginia

Tech

Virginia

Tech

Cincinnati



22




SUN BOWL(229) DUKE [SU:9-3 | ATS:8-4] VS (230) ARIZONA ST (-7.5 | 65.5) [SU:9-3 | ATS:6-6]

DECEMBER 27, 2014 2:00 PM on CBS - SUN BOWL (EL PASO, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF DUKE 32.5 22 37-183 [4.9] 37-21-215 [5.9] 12.2 20.6 22 44-196 [4.5] 32-18-204 [6.3] 19.4 +8 +11.9 ARIZONA ST (15) 37.0 23 39-170 [4.3] 36-21-276 [7.7] 12.1 27.7 20 39-157 [4.0] 35-21-262 [7.5] 15.1 +12 +9.3

Arizona State only had two returning starters on defense, but this unit gelled quicker than most expected and the Sun Devils were in the thick of the Pac-12 race. However, those players faded in November and Arizona State fell to Oregon State and Arizona, sending them to El Paso. The defense should be better with the time off, but coach Todd Graham will have to decide on who he wants to start at quarterback with a struggling Taylor Kelly or backup Mike Bercovici. It is a testament to coach David Cutcliffe that Duke suffering two November losses to finish 9-3 (8-4 ATS) was thought to be a “disappointment”. The Blue Devils seemingly accomplished their record with mirrors since they were actually outgained by two YPG on the season despite the nine wins. Expect this Sun Bowl to come down to which defense surrenders the fewest big plays since both can be beaten.

GAME TRENDS• DUKE is 8-2 ATS(L5Y) - On non-grass field• ARIZONA ST is 3-6 ATS(S2000) - In December Bowl Games• ARIZONA ST is 9-2 OVER(L2Y) - Against decent rushing teams averaging more than 4.4 yards per

carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?229 DUKE 66.5 44 27.1 UNDER 28.2 UNDER 24.7 230 ARIZONA ST -7 54 -9.8 31.9 33.2 39.5 ASU HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe Sun Bowl in El Paso gets these two 9-3 teams that have never met. ASU’s Todd Graham had won four bowls in a row until last year’s 37-23 upset loss to Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl. David Cutcliffe is 0-2 SU in bowls at Duke -- including a 2013 New Year’s Eve loss to Texas A&M -- after a 4-1 SU run at Mississippi. VI PICKS

BEST BET Jim says: With as good as the Pac 12 has been in bowl games in recent years, you are going to have to find a much better opponent than Duke for me against Arizona State. The Pac 12 has really opened my eyes in bowl games recently, boasting a record of 16-7 ATS as a favorite overall, as well as a mark of 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in its L8 versus the ACC. Simply put, I don’t think the ACC teams have the explosiveness offensively to match up with the speed and athleticism of the teams out west. If there’s one thing that ASU does have, it’s speed. I am also a big QB Taylor Kelly fan. He and the Sun Devils will have a huge day against Duke in El Paso.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Saturday, December 27, 2014 - (229) DUKE vs. (230) ARIZONA ST (-7)Arizona

St*

Arizona St Arizona St Arizona St Duke Duke Arizona St Duke




23


INDEPENDENCE BOWL(231) MIAMI FL (-3.5 | 61.5) [SU:6-6 | ATS:5-7] VS (232) SOUTH CAROLINA [SU:6-6 | ATS:4-8]DECEMBER 27, 2014 3:30 PM on ESPN2 - INDEPENDENCE STADIUM (SHREVEPORT, LA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MIAMI FL 29.9 20 34-180 [5.3] 30-17-251 [8.4] 14.4 24.3 19 39-143 [3.7] 30-17-184 [6.1] 13.5 +1 +5.6 SOUTH CAROLINA 33.3 24 37-169 [4.5] 36-21-281 [7.8] 13.5 31.2 23 39-214 [5.4] 30-19-219 [7.4] 13.9 -4 +2.1

This bowl features two 6-6 teams in which significantly more was expected. Miami was sitting at 6-3, with the trio of defeats on the road against solid bowl participants. The Hurricanes took Florida State to the wire before falling and let one loss turn into three against both Virginia and Pittsburgh. Miami does have a fine signal caller in Brad Kaaya and RB Duke Johnson is All-ACC performer. South Carolina opened No. 9 in the preseason polls and never was close to those expectations. The Gamecocks lost twice late with leads in the fourth quarter, which squared their record. After being among the better defensive teams in the country the past few seasons, the Gamecocks slipped to 90th in total defense and was especially vulnerable to the run at 214.4 YPG allowed (107th). With Steve Spurrier returning, this is springboard game heading into next season for South Carolina.

GAME TRENDS• MIAMI FL is 14-5 ATS(L5Y) - as favorite of 7 or less points• SOUTH CAROLINA is 3-8 ATS(L2Y) - Against inefficient defenses allowing less than 15.3 yards per

point(CS)• SOUTH CAROLINA is 8-2 OVER(L5Y) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards

per carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?231 MIAMI FL -3.5 47 31.3 33.8 MIA 26.7 UNDER232 SOUTH CAROLINA 61.5 50 -3 SC 28.2 24.7 28.8 SC HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese two disappointing 6-6 teams meet in the Independence Bowl. Miami holds an 8-5-2 SU series advantage, but the teams haven’t met since 1987 and 13 of those match-ups came between 1936-60. Steve Spurrier has won his last three bowl games, but is 3-3 SU at South Carolina and 10-10 SU overall. Al Golden is 0-2 SU in bowls. VI PICKS

BEST BET Paul says: South Carolina was flipped from a favorite to an underdog largely because of the substantial edge Miami has the on the defensive side of the ball (328 yards allowed vs. 434 for South Carolina). One factor that caught my attention was the offenses. The Gamecocks have somewhat better overall numbers, but what caught my eye is when both teams played on the road. South Carolina averaged 33.3 PPG in all contests and barely dipped to 32.2 PPG on the road. The Hurricanes on the other hand went from 36.4 PPG at home to 20.8 PPG on the road, which led to them being 1-4 SU and ATS on the road. South Carolina outright!

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Saturday, December 27, 2014 - (231) MIAMI FL vs. (232) SOUTH CAROLINA (+3.5)South

Carolina

South

Carolina*

South

Carolina*

South

Carolina

South

Carolina

Miami FL South

Carolina

South Carolina



24




PINSTRIPE BOWL(233) PENN ST [SU:6-6 | ATS:5-6-1] VS (234) BOSTON COLLEGE (-2.5 | 40) [SU:7-5 | ATS:8-4]

DECEMBER 27, 2014 4:30 PM on ESPN - YANKEE STADIUM (NEW YORK, NY)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF PENN ST 19.8 19 35-104 [2.9] 37-20-222 [6.0] 16.5 17.7 14 33-85 [2.6] 32-17-185 [5.8] 15.3 -3 +2.1 BOSTON COLLEGE 25.9 19 49-252 [5.1] 19-10-132 [7.1] 14.8 20.5 17 31-95 [3.1] 31-19-218 [7.0] 15.3 -1 +5.4

This might not be the most exciting bowl battle of the season, but bettors will still have to make a decision. In overlooking Boston College’s schedule which led to a 7-5 (8-4 ATS) record, they were 6-2 (5-3 ATS) when favored or receiving three or less points. This proved they basically won when they should have or fared well against the competition when they had similar talent to the Eagles. Boston College will be in that situation in this contest with Penn State. If you have not seen QB Tyler Murphy, he’s an electrifying athlete who’s a descent thrower. For the Nittany Lions, the lull between their last game and this matchup is finding five offensive linemen who can block and restoring the confidence of QB Christian Hackenberg, who was a shell of his former self. Expect a hard-nosed affair with the quarterback who performs better to be your winner.

GAME TRENDS• BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-3 ATS(L2Y) - Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 22 PPG(CS)• PENN ST is 3-13-3 ATS(L5Y) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)• BOSTON COLLEGE is 11-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against lesser rushing teams averaging less than 3.6

yards per carry(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?233 PENN ST 40 42 20.1 21.4 OVER 21.4 234 BOSTON COLLEGE -3 46 -3.5 24.4 23.6 23.0 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe Nittany Lions hold a huge 19-4 SU advantage here, but other than home-and-home meetings in 2003-04, the other games were played between 1949-1992. This time they’ll tee it up in Yankee Stadium. The Eagles have lost their last four bowl games SU, including last season under Steve Addazio. James Franklin makes his PSU bowl debut after going 2-1 SU at Vanderbilt. VI PICKS

BEST BET Paul says: Boston College is a power running team and the Penn State defense is very good at containing the run at just 85 yards per game allowed. However, Eagles quarterback Tyler Murphy is one elusive player and just when opponents think they have him corralled, he goes for a 30-yard jaunt. The Penn State offensive line was a wreck the entire season, which caused QB Christian Hackenberg to lose his confidence, being jittery in the pocket and his accuracy suffered. I’m not sure the Nittany Lions find the answers they need in a month since the Eagles have a quality defense in their own right. B.C. by 6.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Saturday, December 27, 2014 - (233) PENN ST vs. (234) BOSTON COLLEGE (-3)Boston

College

Penn St Boston

College*

Boston

College

Boston

College

Penn St Penn St Boston College




25


HOLIDAY BOWL(235) NEBRASKA [SU:9-3 | ATS:7-5] VS (236) USC (-7 | 61.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:7-5]

DECEMBER 27, 2014 8:00 PM on ESPN - QUALCOMM STADIUM (SAN DIEGO, CA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NEBRASKA (25) 37.4 22 45-248 [5.5] 26-13-198 [7.7] 11.9 24.8 19 38-176 [4.7] 33-16-196 [5.9] 15.0 -2 +12.6 USC (24) 35.1 24 41-158 [3.9] 35-25-295 [8.4] 12.9 23.8 23 34-132 [3.9] 41-24-268 [6.4] 16.8 +11 +11.3

With Bo Pelini ousted, Barney Cotton takes over for this bowl outing and it will be intriguing to see if Nebraska players play hard for their former coach or show their disgust for his firing. Either way, the Ameer Abdullah should be at or near full strength which will help the Cornhuskers offense immensely since QB Tommy Armstrong is nothing more than an adequate thrower. The Nebraska defense will need a strong pass rush to contain USC’s fine passing game. Steve Sarkisian’s first year as the head coach was less placid than he or anyone associated with Trojans program had hoped at 8-4 (7-5 ATS). With QB Cody Kessler and a stable of receivers, the Trojans owned the No. 15 passing attack (294.6 YPG). The defense was an issue in conceding 400 YPG. With the recruiting restrictions off, a win paints a much brighter future as the Men of Troy start building depth.

GAME TRENDS• USC is 8-3 ATS(S2000) - In Bowl Games• NEBRASKA is 2-8 ATS(L2Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per

point(CS)• USC is 13-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?235 NEBRASKA 62 50 26.6 28.9 NEB 25.1 236 USC -6.5 55 -5.3 31.4 30.3 35.4 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe Holiday Bowl does it again with another strong matchup. USC is 3-0-1 SU all-time vs. Nebraska, including winning decisively and covering both times in a 2006-07 home-and-home series. The Trojans are on a 9-2 SU run in bowls, and are an impressive 34-17 SU all-time. This will be the Cornhuskers’ third Holiday Bowl since 2009 (1-1 SU/ATS), and fourth overall. VI PICKS

BEST BET Paul says: Both teams failed to do what they set out to do this season and for Nebraska, it cost Bo Pelini his job. There was a lot of angry talk at first coming out of Lincoln but with Barney Cotton the interim coach and Mike Riley in place to take over, the Cornhuskers will have their heads in the right place for this contest. USC lost four times and when facing more physical opposing teams, they did not always respond well and the Children of the Corn love to mix it up in the trenches. The Trojans have a terrific passing game but Nebraska is 6-0 ATS away vs. teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. I’ll take the points here.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Saturday, December 27, 2014 - (235) NEBRASKA vs. (236) USC (-6.5)Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska* Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska USC Nebraska



26




LIBERTY BOWL(237) WEST VIRGINIA (-3 | 67) [SU:7-5 | ATS:7-5] VS (238) TEXAS A&M [SU:7-5 | ATS:4-8]

DECEMBER 29, 2014 2:00 PM on ESPN - LIBERTY BOWL (MEMPHIS, TN)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF WEST VIRGINIA 33.2 26 44-187 [4.2] 41-27-315 [7.7] 15.1 26.2 19 38-163 [4.3] 35-18-226 [6.5] 14.8 -15 +7.0 TEXAS A&M 34.4 23 31-143 [4.6] 40-26-306 [7.7] 13.1 27.3 23 44-224 [5.1] 32-18-225 [7.0] 16.4 -7 +7.1

A pair of 7-5 teams who realistically were not ready to compete for their conference honors and who have coaches who understand the value of heading into the off-season with brighter days ahead if they win this bowl. We began to see where coach Dana Holgorsen wants to take West Virginia with a robust offense. Clint Trickett and Kevin White will have one last hurrah together and if the defense can make more strides, the Mountaineers are truly making progress. The 5-0 start by Texas A&M was mirage, with opponents not as good as advertised and the Aggies able to disguise their weaknesses. Eventually Kevin Sumlin’s squad was uncovered and this bowl becomes a table-setter for the young players who saw the field and a strong recruiting class coming in. There is every reason to think this will be a wide open shootout with number of big plays of 50+ yards.

GAME TRENDS• WEST VIRGINIA is 7-4 ATS(L2Y) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per

point(CS)• TEXAS A&M is 2-8 ATS(L5Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points• WEST VIRGINIA is 8-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against decent passing teams averaging more than 7.5

yards per attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?237 WEST VIRGINIA -3 52 29.8 UNDER 36.2 32.8 238 TEXAS A&M 67 50 1.3 29.7 35.1 36.6 A&M HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese two 7-5 teams meet for the first time in the Liberty Bowl. Kevin Sumlin is 2-0 SU in bowls at A&M, and 3-1 SU overall. Dana Holgorsen and the Mountaineers return to a bowl after a one-year absence. They put 70 points on Clemson in a romp in the 2011-12 Orange Bowl, but lost 38-14 to Syracuse in the 2012 Pinstripe Bowl. VI PICKS

BEST BET Consensus says: Remember back at the end of September when Texas A&M was thought of as one of the best teams in the country and QB Kenny Hill was on the short list of potential candidates for the Heisman Trophy? Well, that is a long time ago, and Kyle Allen is the new quarterback for the Aggies after Hill’s midseason suspension, but I think that HC Kevin Sumlin is just as capable now of drawing up a big attack for West Virginia as he did to open the season. The more preparation time Sumlin gets, the better his offenses seem to perform. They shouldn’t meet a whole lot of resistance from West Virginai either, as the Mountaineers allowed 30+ points on six different occasions this season. I certainly don’t like teams like that as favorites. I also don’t like the Big 12’s history of being unable to compete with SEC team in bowl games. Take the dogs.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Monday, December 29, 2014 - (237) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (238) TEXAS A&M (+3)Texas

A&M

Texas

A&M

West

Virginia

Texas

A&M

Texas

A&M

Texas

A&M

Texas

A&M

Texas A&M




27


RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL(239) CLEMSON [SU:9-3 | ATS:5-7] VS (240) OKLAHOMA (-3.5 | 52.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:5-7]

DECEMBER 29, 2014 5:30 PM on ESPN - CITRUS BOWL (ORLANDO, FL)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF CLEMSON (18) 30.1 20 41-154 [3.7] 34-22-256 [7.5] 13.6 17.6 14 35-98 [2.8] 29-15-162 [5.5] 14.8 +1 +12.5 OKLAHOMA 38.9 23 44-269 [6.1] 29-16-212 [7.3] 12.4 24.8 20 35-110 [3.2] 39-22-273 [6.9] 15.4 0 +14.1

No two ways about, 2014 was a vastly disappointing year for Oklahoma football. The Sooners lost two close ones to TCU and Kansas State, were battered by Baylor and thoroughly embarrassed at home in OT setback to Oklahoma State. Bob Stoops troops enter this contest with more questions than answers as the defense failed against better offenses all year. The health of QB Travis Knight and RB Samaje Perine will impact this matchup, but one cannot help but wonder what the Sooners have to play for. Clemson had the No.1 total defense (259.6 YPG) and No.7 scoring defense in the country (17.6). When freshman QB Deshaun Watson was on the field, Clemson could play with anyone. Unfortunately he was banged up a few times and the Tigers offense stalled without him. With a stocked veteran defense Clemson will try close out the careers of their seniors in fine fashion.

GAME TRENDS• CLEMSON is 13-4 ATS(L3Y) - Against efficient offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per

point(CS)• OKLAHOMA is 3-7 ATS(L3Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.35 yards per

carry(CS)• OKLAHOMA is 10-1 OVER(L3Y) - Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.5 yards per

attempt(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?239 CLEMSON 53.5 53 23.6 25.5 22.9 240 OKLAHOMA -3 56 -2.8 29.6 29.6 31.7 OKL HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese teams last met in the 1989 Citrus Bowl, when the Tigers won a 13-7 defensive struggle. The Sooners decisively won regular-season matchups in 1972 and 1963. A victory will give Dabo Swinney his third consecutive SU bowl triumph and a fourth consecutive double-figures win season. Bob Stoops will be making his 16th consecutive bowl trip, and is on a 4-1 SU run. VI PICKS

BEST BET Jason says: Just prior to when our best bets had to be in for the bowl season, it was announced that QB Trevor Knight was cleared to play for Oklahoma. On the other sideline, the news wasn’t so good…DeShawn Watson would not play for the Tigers. Now obviously this is big news and will be reflected in the pointspread, but to me, it is clearly more important for the Sooners, as their offense was horribly imbalanced with Cody Thomas under center. With Clemson boasting a stout run defense, the ability to throw the ball will be paramount. I also give the Sooners a big coaching edge in this game, as Bob Stoops’ teams typically REALLY show up to play in bowl games. Give me Oklahoma in this one.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Monday, December 29, 2014 - (239) CLEMSON vs. (240) OKLAHOMA (-3)Clemson Oklahoma* Clemson Clemson Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma Oklahoma



28




TEXAS BOWL(241) TEXAS [SU:6-6 | ATS:7-5] VS (242) ARKANSAS (-6 | 46) [SU:6-6 | ATS:9-3]

DECEMBER 29, 2014 9:00 PM on ESPN - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF TEXAS 22.6 19 38-149 [3.9] 33-19-212 [6.5] 16.0 23.2 19 41-162 [3.9] 33-20-186 [5.7] 15.0 -1 -0.6 ARKANSAS 32.0 22 42-220 [5.2] 28-16-190 [6.8] 12.8 20.2 18 34-124 [3.6] 31-17-221 [7.2] 17.1 +5 +11.8

Fun matchup from the old Southwest Conference days. Arkansas might only be a .500 club but the fact they were 9-3 ATS and outscored opposing teams by 11.8 PPG are more telling numbers of how good this team actually is. The Razorbacks are now molded in what coach Bret Bielema prefers, a powerful ground attack (26th nationally), with an adequate passing offense. One little known fact about the Hogs this season, they finished 24th in total defense. First-year coach Charlie Strong made a strong statement in dismissing a number of players from the Texas program, signifying he wants character and talent. Sitting at 3-5, the Longhorns won three in a row in November and gave an indication of where the program is headed. QB Tyrone Swoopes will face competition this bowl game and will have to perform. This is compelling game with two squads seeking off-season momentum.

GAME TRENDS• ARKANSAS is 8-2 ATS(CS) - On non-grass field• TEXAS is 3-7 ATS(L2Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per point(CS)• ARKANSAS is 9-0 UNDER(S2000) - In Bowl Games STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?241 TEXAS 45.5 49 16.7 24.5 TEX 21.0 242 ARKANSAS -6.5 57 -7.5 29.2 ARK 25.6 OVER 23.6 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese longtime Southwest Conference rivals will renew acquaintances in Houston’s Texas Bowl. The Longhorns rolled 52-10 as 27-point home favorites in the last matchup (2008). The Razorbacks sprung a 38-28 upset as 14-point road dogs in 2003. UT’s Charlie Strong was 3-2 SU in bowl games at Louisville, including last year’s blowout of Miami, Fla., in the Russell Athletic Bowl. VI PICKS

BEST BET Paul says: Despite Arkansas being only a .500 team, this outfit was way more dominant than their record indicates. The Razorbacks outscored opposing teams by over 11 points a contest and were 9-3 ATS, proving they were better than market indications. Also, their defense was unheralded, being 26th in total defense, which my guess not many realized. While Texas make significant strides under Charley Strong, they still have a ways to go and my impression is these two former conference partners are moving forward, but because it is Year 1 for Strong and Year 2 for Bret Bielema and the Hogs are further along on both sides of the ball and win by 11.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Monday, December 29, 2014 - (241) TEXAS vs. (242) ARKANSAS (-6.5)Texas* Texas Arkansas* Arkansas Arkansas Texas Texas Arkansas




29


MUSIC CITY BOWL(243) NOTRE DAME [SU:7-5 | ATS:5-7] VS (244) LSU (-7 | 52.5) [SU:8-4 | ATS:8-4]

DECEMBER 30, 2014 3:00 PM on ESPN - LP FIELD (NASHVILLE, TN)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF NOTRE DAME 33.0 24 36-151 [4.2] 36-22-294 [8.1] 13.5 29.2 22 41-161 [4.0] 33-20-240 [7.2] 13.7 -4 +3.8 LSU (22) 27.6 20 49-219 [4.5] 22-11-164 [7.5] 13.9 16.4 15 34-143 [4.2] 30-15-162 [5.4] 18.6 +4 +11.2

After a 6-0 start, Notre Dame was definite Final Four material and they even earned a lot of respect in close loss to then No. 1 Florida State. Then the defensive injuries began to mount and all the Everett Golson mistakes could not be masked and Irish had no fight to close 0-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. The Notre Dame defense was run over for 244.2 YPG on the ground in their last five tests and how they will combat LSU’s potent rushing attack is a mystery at this juncture. The Tigers young squad played that way this season with exceptional and uneven performances all year. In the end, Les Miles club being 8-4 SU and ATS was accurate and they not only have the ground game to pound Notre Dame with but the defense also. This is meaningful contest for two young football teams heading into the off-season.

GAME TRENDS• LSU is 11-4 ATS(L5Y) - as favorite of 7 or less points• NOTRE DAME is 1-8 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - In Bowl Games• NOTRE DAME is 10-3 UNDER(L3Y) - Against resilient defenses allowing more than 17.25 yards per

point(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?243 NOTRE DAME 52.5 47 21.7 26.6 ND 25.6 244 LSU -7 56 -8.5 31.6 26.5 30.5 HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThe last Irish-Tigers meeting before this Music City Bowl matchup came in the 2007 Sugar Bowl. It was an LSU blowout - 41-14 as 9-point favorites in a game with a total of 56. Prior to that, the teams met nine times from 1970-1998, including a 1997 Independence Bowl matchup - another LSU SU/ATS win: 27-9. LSU is 12-5 SU in bowls since 1995. VI PICKS

BEST BET Jason says: Let’s quickly go back through a list of Notre Dame’s recent bowl wins and losses and see if we can’t come up with a pattern…wins over: Rutgers, Miami, Hawaii, losses to: Alabama, Florida State, LSU, Ohio State. It seems pretty obvious to me that the Irish are able to not only compete but beat teams that are less talented than them in bowl games. Alternatively, when matched up against national powers with slews of top recruits on the roster, they wither. Well, in which category do you put LSU’s 2014 team? Me too, the latter. The interesting thing is that this trend seemd to ring true throughout the regular season as well, with Notre Dame losing to the likes of Florida State, Arizona State, USC etc. Simply put, the Tigers have the better players and a coach that gets it done better in bowl games.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Tuesday, December 30, 2014 - (243) NOTRE DAME vs. (244) LSU (-7)LSU LSU* LSU LSU LSU Notre

Dame

Notre

Dame

LSU



30




BELK BOWL(245) LOUISVILLE [SU:9-3 | ATS:7-5] VS (246) GEORGIA (-6.5 | 57) [SU:9-3 | ATS:7-5]

DECEMBER 30, 2014 6:30 PM on ESPN - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM (CHARLOTTE, NC)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF LOUISVILLE (20) 32.6 20 40-149 [3.7] 32-18-247 [7.7] 12.1 20.5 15 32-95 [3.0] 32-17-199 [6.2] 14.3 +5 +12.1 GEORGIA (13) 41.7 23 42-255 [6.1] 25-17-200 [8.0] 10.9 21.2 19 42-177 [4.2] 28-15-157 [5.6] 15.8 +15 +20.5

This is the 12th playing of this bowl and far and away this is the best matchup they have put together. Both schools are 9-3, though Georgia is the more disappointed participant, as most would agree the Bulldogs should have won at least one more time this season. Georgia has the ability to dominate on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but it doesn’t always play like it wants to which has everyone pointing fingers at coach Mark Richt. Senior QB Hutson Mason will no doubt want to cap his career with a 10-win season. Louisville seniors like WR Devante Parker are seeking a third 10-win season themselves, which would make them one of the most decorated classes in school history. While the components are in place for offense, these are two top 20 defenses (Cardinals 6th and Bulldogs 20th), which could makes this a lower scoring affair.

GAME TRENDS• LOUISVILLE is 8-2-1 ATS(L5Y) - Against elite rushing teams averaging more than 5.0 yards per

carry(CS)• GEORGIA is 4-9 ATS(L5Y) - Against solid rushing defenses yielding less than 3.35 yards per

carry(CS)• GEORGIA is 7-2 OVER(CS) - On grass field STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?245 LOUISVILLE 56.5 52 23.7 22.4 18.6 UNDER246 GEORGIA -7 61 -8.5 35.8 GEO 30.3 30.7 GEO HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNThese 9-3 teams are matched for the first time in Charlotte’s Belk Bowl. Georgia’s last two bowl games were against Nebraska (1-1 SU/ATS). They have lost three of their last four SU, but are 8-4 SU since 2002. Mark Richt is 8-5 SU in 13 consecutive bowl appearances. The Cardinals are on a 2-0 SU and ATS bowl move. VI PICKS

BEST BET Consensus says: While none of our human experts categorized the Belk Bowl as a Best Bet for them, there was unanimous consensus on the side wagering option. All indicators sided with Georgia over Louisville. It seems that the strength of the SEC is shining through in those selections, as perhaps everyone is seeing two different level teams squaring off. The teams share identical records but Georgia is the touchdown favorite in a bowl game series typically dominated by favorites. One of our human experts also noted the similar opponent logic, as both teams played Clemson. Georgia crushed the Tigers 45-21. The Cardinals lost outright 23-17. Look for Georgia to wear down Louisville and pull away late.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Tuesday, December 30, 2014 - (245) LOUISVILLE vs. (246) GEORGIA (-7)Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia Georgia




31


FOSTER FARMS BOWL(247) MARYLAND [SU:7-5 | ATS:6-6] VS (248) STANFORD (-14 | 47.5) [SU:7-5 | ATS:6-6]

DECEMBER 30, 2014 10:00 PM on ESPN - LEVIS STADIUM (SANTA CLARA, CA)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics2014 PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT TOD PDIF MARYLAND 29.1 18 33-131 [3.9] 33-18-221 [6.8] 12.1 28.9 22 45-202 [4.5] 36-20-236 [6.6] 15.2 0 +0.2 STANFORD 25.7 20 36-155 [4.3] 30-19-232 [7.8] 15.1 16.0 17 35-112 [3.2] 34-19-176 [5.2] 18.0 -5 +9.7

Maryland had a 35-10 lead over Rutgers in their season finale and were ready to assume 2014 as a success with an 8-4 record in their initial run through the Big Ten. But the Terps were outscored 31-3 and lost and have to pick up the pieces against one of the most physical teams they will face this season in Stanford. At least Maryland should have back WR Stefon Diggs, who makes their offense explosive. After four BCS bowl appearances, it was a shock to see Stanford at 5-5, before they won their last two contests. Three of the defeats were by three points each and in each instance the Cardinal were in position to win. Even in an off-year, Stanford was fifth in total defense and if QB Kevin Hogan can perform like he did the last two contests, Maryland could be in a heap of trouble.

GAME TRENDS• STANFORD is 17-6 ATS(L5Y) - Against opportunistic offenses averaging less than 12.35 yards per

point(CS)• MARYLAND is 4-9 ATS(L2Y) - Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.7 yards per

play(CS)• STANFORD is 10-1 UNDER(L3Y) - Against tough-luck defenses allowing less than 16.7 yards per

point(CS) STRENGTH RATINGSBRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Simulation Bettors’ Rtng#’’s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge?247 MARYLAND 47.5 42 19.4 21.3 MAR 19.5 MAR248 STANFORD -14 56 -14 29.4 29.2 22.1 UNDER HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWNIt’s a cross-country trip for the Terps and a home-area game for the Cardinal, as this bowl previously known as the Fight Hunger and Emerald Bowl moves from the Giants’ AT&T Park to the new Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. These teams have never met. Stanford’s David Shaw has split the last two Rose Bowls SU/ATS, and lost the 2011 Fiesta Bowl. VI PICKS

BEST BET Jim says: Is there really a 14-point difference between two teams that share identical records out of the Big Ten and Pac 12 conferences? That is the key question we have to answer as we analyze the Foster Farm’s Bowl game. It can of course be argued that Stanford will enjoy a tremendous home field advantage playing in Santa Clara, but in truth, it is not the Cardinal’s home field, and how much interest will this game really generate from the fan base after Stanford clearly underperformed this season. This is a team that has played in BCS bowl games in each of the last four seasons and now is relegated to a much lower interest game against a mediocre foe. Which team do you think will be more amped to play? Me too…Maryland.

VI Jim 82-75 (52%) 28-20 (58%)*

VI Jason 75-82 (48%)21-24 (47%)*

VI Paul 76-81 (48%) 18-29 (38%)*






Tuesday, December 30, 2014 - (247) MARYLAND vs. (248) STANFORD (-14)Maryland* Stanford Stanford Stanford Maryland Maryland Maryland Maryland



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weekly football tip sheet - vegasinsider.com · VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 1 Football Weekly Football Weekly The 2014-15 bowl season is underway