Weekly Economic Monitor

February 15, 2015

2

Brief Overview

International MENA Region

Local Economy

Amman Stock Exchange

Local Debt Monitor

Prime Lending Rates

Markets overview

Markets overview

News and analysis

U.S.: Treasurys fall as demand for the relative safety ofgovernment bonds fades on receding global worries, despitedisappointing data

Major Indices U.S. stocks rose Friday, with the S&P 500closing at a record, and European stocks rose to a 7-yearpeak

Commodities and Currencies: Brent oil extends gain, up6.4% on the week to settle at $61.5 a barrel s

Central Bank Meeting Calendar

Interest Rate Forecast

The Week Ahead

Egypt: Inflation drops, CBE to issue $1 billion dollar T-bill

GCC News Highlights

GCC interbank rates

Comparative MENA Markets

Eurozone: Peripheral bond yields fell Friday on better thanexpected GDP data and hopes of a Greece compromise deal

U.K.: Bank of England hints at 2016 rate hike

Inflation down by 0.04% in January 2015

China: Inflation falls to 5-year low, adding to calls for furtherstimulus

Net new government bonds issuance down 20 million JDin 2015 so far

3

International

4

U.S. Treasurys fall as demand for the relative safety of government bonds fades on receding global worries

• U.S. government bonds fell Friday, capping a two-week selloff,despite weak U.S. data as worries over the global economicoutlook abated.

• Demand for the relative safety of Treasurys fizzled, asinvestors took comfort from data released Friday that showedaccelerating growth in the eurozone, led by Germany, in thefourth quarter. Sentiment also was boosted by hopes thatGreece and its international creditors would find a solution toavert a default by the country and a ceasefire agreementreduced geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

• The 10-year yield has risen by 9 basis points in the past weekto close at 2.05% Friday, up 7bp from Thursday’s closing level.Bond yields rise as prices fall.

As of February 13 1 Week Ago A Month Ago

1 Month 0.01% 0.02% 0.02%

3 Months 0.01% 0.02% 0.03%

6 Months 0.07% 0.09% 0.08%

2 Years 0.65% 0.65% 0.50%

5 Years 1.54% 1.48% 1.32%

10 Years 2.05% 1.96% 1.85%

30 Years 2.62% 2.53% 2.46%

5

U.S. retail sales in January disappoint

• U.S. consumer cut back on purchases in January, suggesting the economystarted the first quarter on a softer note despite the significant boost todisposable income from lower gasoline prices.

• Retail sales slumped by 0.8% in January on top of a 0.9% decline inDecember, depressed by a plunge in gas prices, the Commerce Departmentsaid Thursday.

• Meanwhile, retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materialsand food services edged up 0.1% last month after a 0.3% drop inDecember. The so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with theconsumer spending component of gross domestic product.

• Markets had expected core retail sales to increase 0.4% last month. Thesoft reading could see economists trim their forecasts for first-quarter GDPgrowth. The economy grew at a 2.6% annual pace in the fourth quarter.

• Consumer sentiment in the U.S. fell to a three-month low in February,according to data from the University of Michigan, but it wasn’t weakenough to threaten the index’s long-term trend of strength. Consumersentiment fell to 93.6 from 98.1 in January, which had been an 11-yearpeak.

• Still, cheaper gasoline prices and robust employment gains are expected toprovide a powerful stimulus to consumer spending and keep the economyon an expansion path, despite sputtering global growth.

6

Fed rate hike looming in the wake of the strong labor market

• A Fed rate hike in June is back on the agenda in view of hawkishcommunication coming from Fed members over the week.

• The labor market for January was strong across the board and thecombination of better wage growth and continued solid growth inemployment should give the Fed more confidence that the labor market isstill improving.

• San Francisco Fed President John Williams, told the Financial Times onTuesday that the Fed is getting "closer and closer" to raising rates. He citedpromising January wage data and "really strong" hiring. Williams also saidthat a decision on whether to hike interest rates would be ‘in play in June’.

• Another voting member on the policy committee, Richmond Fed presidentJeffrey Lacker in a speech said he favored a rate hike in June, sayingthe U.S. economy is strengthening and that inflation will move back tothe central bank's target.

• However, other Fed officials still believe it was too early to remove thephrase that the Fed can afford to be ‘patient’. This would effectively ruleout an interest rate hike in June, as according to Janet Yellen ‘patient’should be interpreted as meaning that interest rates will not be raised atthe next two meetings.

• Risks are still skewed towards a later hike (July or September) as lowinflation gives Fed room to be patient.

Jan: 257,000

7

Eurozone government bond yields fall Friday on better than expected GDP data and hopes of a Greece compromise deal

• Demand for Germany’s ultra safe bunds remainedhigh this week in view of continued uncertaintyover Greece. However, better than expected GDPdata on Friday and hopes that negotiations onGreece’s bailout showed signals of compromisepushed demand towards riskier assets.

• The German 10-year Bund yield edged up 2bp to0.34% on Friday, leaving it 3bp down on the week.

• Meanwhile, peripheral eurozone bonds advancedon Friday, with yields on Italian and Spanish 10-yearbonds down 5bp and 7bp respectively.

• Italian bond yields dipped briefly below Spanishequivalents on Friday, a sign of investor worriesthat the anti-austerity Podemos party couldtriumph in Spain's November elections.

• Spain’s 10-year bond yields closed Friday at 1.55%,up 6bp over the week, while Italy’s 10-year yieldsclosed at 1.61, up 3bp over the week. Both remainnear record lows with the European Central Bank'sbond-buying scheme set to be implemented inMarch.

8

Eurozone growth beats expectations on German strength

• The eurozone's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded more thanexpected in the fourth quarter of 2014, boosted by an acceleration inGermany's growth.

• The currency bloc's combined economy grew by 0.3% in the final threemonths of the year from the previous quarter, according to official figurespublished Friday. This was above analyst expectations and higher than a0.2% expansion in the third quarter.

• This suggests that falling oil prices and a weakening euro already feedingthrough to support eurozone activity in the fourth quarter of 2014

• Despite the improvement, economic growth has remained weak, leavingthe jobless rate close to its record high, and making it difficult forgovernments and households to reduce high levels of debt.

• With the economy barely growing and consumer prices in decline, theEuropean Central Bank will next month launch a new stimulusprogram under which it will buy more than €1 trillion of mostly governmentbonds by September 2016.

• While some recent surveys indicate that the fall in oil prices may bedelivering a boost to parts of the economy in early 2015, policy makersworry that the currency area is at risk of a slide into deflation. They alsoworry that fresh doubts about Greece’s ability to remain inside thecurrency area will damage already-weak business and investor confidence.

Q4: 0.3%

9

Germany growth storms ahead

• Region-wide growth was driven by the eurozone's largest economy,Germany, which also posted above-forecast growth for the period,bolstering hopes that its economy is back on track.

• GDP in Germany expanded by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, accordingto official figures—substantially higher than market expectations of0.3%. That marked a significant pickup from the 0.1% expansionrecorded by Germany in the third quarter. In 2014 as a whole, theGerman economy grew by 1.6%.

• The pickup comes after widespread concern about the health of theGerman economy, following a sharp slowdown in Russia – a majormarket for German exports. In a gloomy outlook towards the end of2014, the Bundesbank warned that Germany risked comingdangerously close to recession.

• In more good news, Spain's economy also picked up in the fourthquarter, to grow 0.7%.

• But economic growth slowed in France, while Italy endured its 14thstraight quarter without an increase in output.

• Elsewhere, Greece’s economy contracted again after three quartersof expansion, a development that may reflect growing uncertaintyahead of January elections that saw the left-wing Syriza party lead anew government.

10

Hopes remain that Greece can reach a deal with its creditorsGreece and EU vow to keep talking as bailout talks break down

• Leaders from Greece and the rest of the eurozone struck a conciliatory tone Thursday, a day afterthe country’s new government dashed hopes of a quick resolution to the standoff between Athensand its creditors.

• “I think today we leave having made important steps,” Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras,said after a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels. “We didn’t cover the full distance butwe covered an important part, and proved that the EU is a field of conflicts and compromises.”

• The friendlier comments came after an unsuccessful meeting of eurozone finance ministersWednesday night, in which Greece’s finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, withdrew consent to ajoint statement at the last minute—raising doubts over his country’s future in the commoncurrency.

• The biggest disagreement at Wednesday’s talks was over whether Greece should request anextension of its existing €240 billion bailout, which runs out at the end of the month, Feb 28.

• The anti-austerity government of Mr. Tspiras is resisting such an extension, saying the cuts andoverhauls it requires will push the country’s economy further into crisis.

• Greece’s international creditors, meanwhile, believe extending the current rescue program is thebest way to keep the country from defaulting until a follow-up deal has been agreed.

• Talks between eurozone finance ministers will resume on Monday at their ordinary meeting.Athens said it would make every effort to reach a deal at Monday’s meeting, while the ECBextended another €5bn in emergency loans to Greek lenders.

11

Bank of England hints at 2016 rate hike

• The Bank of England Thursday signaled it remains on courseto raise interest rates in the U.K., though not before 2016, amid asharp slowdown in inflation in Britain and renewed concern over apossible Greek exit from the neighboring eurozone.

• Meanwhile, in a sign that officials are mindful of the risksthreatening to undermine recovery, Gov. Mark Carney said he andhis colleagues on the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee arewilling to cut the BOE’s main interest rate further below its record-low level of 0.5% or embark on a fresh round of asset purchases ifthe prospects for growth and inflation in the U.K. deteriorate.

• Nevertheless, Mr. Carney stressed that on balance the BOE stillexpects its next move will still be to raise rates, not cut them.Markets currently expect the BOE to begin slowly tightening policyin mid-2016.

• The BOE said in its quarterly inflation report that growth in the U.K.nevertheless remains solid, as tumbling oil prices and a tentativerevival in wage growth are powering consumer spending.

• Officials said they expect a bout of weak inflation caused largely bythe falling price of crude to prove transitory. Forecasts showed thecentral bank expects annual inflation in the U.K., measured inDecember at 0.5%, may fall below zero in the coming monthsbefore rising again next year, back at its 2% target by 2017.

Yields rose to 1.68%Friday, up 3bp over theweek

12

China inflation falls to 5-year low, adding to calls for further stimulus

• China's consumer inflation increased at its slowest pace in more than fiveyears in January, data showed on Tuesday, adding to concerns overweakening domestic demand and justifying the need for more stimulusaction from policymakers.

• The consumer price index climbed 0.8% from a year ago, belowexpectations for a 1% gain and down from an already low 1.5% rise inDecember. This marked the weakest reading since November 2009.

• China's economy faces the growing risk of deflation, amid a slowingproperty market, a shrinking factory sector and a collapse in oil prices.

• The figures are the latest sign of an economy losing steam. Over theweekend, fresh data showed exports and imports slumping by a widemargin in January, while the official Purchasing Managers' Index releasedlast week pointed to a contraction in manufacturing activity in themonth.

• Last week, China's central bank cut the reserve requirements of majorbanks by 50 basis points. The action followed a surprise interest rate cutby the People's Bank of China in November.

• Analysts expect further easing in the coming weeks and months aspolicymakers attempt to stem a further economic slowdown. China'seconomy grew 7.4% in 2014, the slowest pace in 24 years and mostmarket watchers project growth to slow to around 7% this year.

13

U.S. stocks rose Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record, and Europeanstocks rose to a 7-year peak after ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and signsof growth in the eurozone

14

Brent oil extends gain, up 6.4% on the week to settle at $61.5 a barrelon ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and reports suggesting supply glutto start to ease in the coming months

15

Major Interest Rate Forecasts

Rate (%)Market yield

(February 13)Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016

United States

US 10-year 2.05 2.01 2.22 2.44 2.64 2.84 3.02

US 2-year 0.64 0.66 0.89 1.16 1.44 1.70 1.97

Fed Fund Target Rate 0.25 0.25 0.35 0.60 0.90 1.20 1.50

Germany

Germnay 10-year 0.34 0.51 0.66 0.78 0.95 1.05 1.16

Germany 2-year -0.22 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.27 0.44

ECB Main Refinancing Rate 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

United Kingdom

UK 10-year 1.68 1.81 2.08 2.32 2.52 2.57 2.71

UK 2-year 0.38 0.8 1.00 1.36 1.50 1.78 2.01

BoE Bank Rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.80 0.90 1.10

Source: Bloomberg

16

The Week Ahead,,,

Date Event GMT Forecast Previous

15-Feb Sun CNY New Yuan Loans 1350.0B 697.3B

JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized 23:50 3.70% -1.90%

16-Feb Mon JPY Industrial Production (YoY) 04:30 0.30%

EUR Eurogroup meeting on Greece 16:30

17-Feb Tue GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 09:30 0.40% 0.50%

GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 09:30 1.40% 1.30%

EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 10:00 45.2

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 10:00 55.0 48.4

USD NAHB Housing Market Index 15:00 58.0 57.0

18-Feb Wed JPY Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement

JPY Bank of Japan Policy Statement/Kuroda Press Conference

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) 09:30 5.70% 5.80%

GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) 09:30 1.70% 1.70%

GBP Bank of England Minutes 09:30

EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output (YoY) 10:00 2.20%

USD Housing Starts 13:30 1070K 1089K

USD Housing Starts (MoM) 13:30 -1.70% 4.40%

USD Building Permits 13:30 1066K 1032K

USD Building Permits (MoM) 13:30 0.80% -1.90%

USD Industrial Production 14:15 0.40% -0.10%

USD U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from Jan. 27-28 FOMC Meeting 19:00

JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) 23:50 -¥599.1B -¥712.1B

19-Feb Thu USD Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 304K

EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 15:00 -8.0 -8.5

20-Feb Fri JPY Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI 01:35 52.5 52.2

EUR Markit Germany Services PMI 08:30 54.3 54.0

EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI 08:30 51.5 50.9

EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI 09:00 52.9 52.6

GBP Retail Sales (YoY) 09:30 6.10% 4.20%

USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI 14:45 53.6 53.9

Economic Data Release Calendar

February 15, 2015 - February 20, 2015

17

Central Bank Meetings Calendar

Calendar for upcoming meetings of main central banks:

Expected RateDecision

Current RateMonthCentral Bank

0.25%0.25%March 18US Federal Reserve (FOMC)

0.05%0.05%March 5European Central Bank (ECB)

0.50%0.50%March 5Bank of England (BoE)

0.10%0.10%February 18Bank of Japan (BOJ)

0.00%0.00%March 19Swiss National Bank (SNB)

0.75%0.75%March 4Bank of Canada (BOC)

2.25%2.25%March 3Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

3.50%3.50%March 12Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)

18

Regional

19

Egypt: Inflation drops, CBE to issue $1 billion dollar T-bill

• Egypt’s 3M and 9M T-bill yields rose, while 6M and 12M yieldsdropped, as inflation dropped to 9.7% in January from 10.1% inDecember. Meanwhile, core inflation dropped to 7.1% from 7.7%over the same time period.

• The drop in inflation will give room for the CBE to cut rates further,after it cut rates by 50 basis points last month, citing an easinginflation outlook. However, the recent deliberate depreciation of theEgyptian Pound by the CBE might place some upward pressure oninflation.

• In other news, Egypt is planning on issuing a $1 billion 1-year dollar T-bill, which will provide cheaper funding to the government, boostEGP liquidity levels in the market, and FX reserves by the sameamount.

• Meanwhile, the IMF said that Egypt’s reforms are starting to spur aturnaround in the economy ahead of the investment summit inMarch. The IMF said Egypt needs to concentrate on creating jobs,reducing the budget deficit, and maintaining FX reserves, while itexpects growth to register 3.8% in 2014/15 compared to an estimateof 4% by Egypt’s Prime Minister.

• Egypt’s Finance Minister also dismissed talks of a loan with the IMFfor the time being.

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Trading Economics

20

GCC Economic Highlights:Saudi Arabia: Inflation drops to 2.2% in January – lowest level since 2012

• According to figures released by the Central Department of Statistics &Information, the inflation rate grew by 2.2% in January of 2015 whencompared to January 2014, down from 2.4% in December and thelowest level since September 2012.

• Prices of housing and utilities increased by 2.7% from January 2014,while food and beverages prices rose 2.1% over the same time period.

• According to studies, the strengthening of the dollar is a key factor inlowering imported inflation which increased the purchasing power ofthe Saudi Riyal.

• The study also shows that housing and utility prices are downwardtrending, recording the lowest levels since December 2011, mainly dueto a 11% decline in water prices, while housing rentals also moderated.

• Separately, the Saudi Central Bank SAMA, said it predicts inflation toremain stable in the first quarter of the year. The bank said that despitesome internal inflationary pressures, projections show “a stabledomestic inflation rate as a result of the global decrease in commodityprices.”

• Meanwhile, the IMF expects inflation to register 3.2% in 2015.

21

GCC Economic Highlights:Saudi Arabia: S&P lowers outlook to negative due to plunge in oil prices

• S&P decided to lower its outlook on Saudi Arabia’s credit grade fromstable to negative as a result of the steep decline in oil prices adding thatthe country’s fiscal position could weaken as a result of the dependenceon oil revenues.

• The rating agency added that it will consider lowering the Kingdom’s AA-credit ranking if in two years its liquid assets decline or its fiscal positionweakens.

• Saudi Arabia relies on oil and gas for about 90% of government revenueand 85% of its exports. The rating agency said that the country may facesustained budget deficit over the next few year if low oil prices persist.

• Meanwhile, last week, Saudi Arabia’s Central Bank Chief called forenergy subsidy reforms which drain billion of dollars from the statebudget and encourage waste by keeping down prices for consumers.

• A subsidy reforms is highly politically sensitive, so authorities have heldback from introducing reforms for years. However, given the significantdrop in oil prices and the expected $39 billion deficit for 2015, it mightbe the right time for the government to introduce reforms.

• The chief said that the country was considering to cover the deficit byusing the huge fiscal reserves or borrowing from the domestic financialmarket, or a combination of both.

22

GCC interbank rates

Source: Bloomberg

23

Comparative MENA MarketsFebruary 8, 2015 – February 13, 2015

Source: Bloomberg

24

Locally

25

Inflation down by 0.04% in January 2015

• According to figures released by the Department ofStatistics, the inflation rate contracted by 0.04% during thefirst month of 2015, compared to the same time period in2014.

• Inflation figures for 2014 came below forecast expectationsof 3%, helped by a rapid decline in oil prices. Lookingahead, the IMF forecasts inflation to grow by 2.6% in 2015.

• The report said that the drop in inflation was attributedmainly to lower prices in the following main commoditiesand services: transportation (down 16.2%), fuel andelectricity (down 10.3%), vegetables (down 10.8%), drinks(down 1.2%), and personal items (down 1.0%).

• On the other hand, prices of other commodity groups rosefor the same time period: rents (up 5.8%), tobacco (up13.6%), fruits and nuts (up 14.6%), and meat and poultry(up 2.8%)

• On a monthly basis, inflation dropped by 1.2% in Januarycompared to December, mainly due to a drop in transportand fuel prices, indicating low inflationary pressures for thetime being.

26

Net new government bonds issuance down 20 million JD in 2015 so far

• According to data collected by CAB, net newgovernment debt through bonds issuances isdown by 20 million JD so far in 2015.

• Meanwhile, net new government debt for thesame time period in 2014 show an increase by268 million JD, highlighting the significantchange in the government’s need to borrowthis year.

• Part of the drop comes due to the governmententities such as the electricity or watercompany resorting to borrowing directlythrough banks and targeting Islamic banksexcess liquidity.

• On the other hand, the government’s need toborrow also dropped due to the drop in oilprices that reflects positively on the electricitycompany’s losses.

up to 15th February

in million JD 2014 2015

Sum of New Issuances 645 425

Sum of Redeemed 377 445

Net New Internal Debt 268 -20* these figures only include government bonds

27

Amman Stock ExchangeFor the period 08/02– 12/02

ASE free float shares’ price index ended the week at

(2,186.2) points, compared to (2,220.8) points for the last

week, posting a decrease of 1.56%. The total trading

volume during the week reached JD(67.2) million compared

to JD(83.1) million during the last week, trading a total of

(66.2) million shares through (24,994) transactions.

The shares of (176) companies were traded, the shares

prices of (46) companies rose, and the shares prices of (100)

declined.

Top 5 losers for the last week

% chg

Real Estate Development (16.00%)

Middle East Pharma. & Chemical Ind. & Medical Appliances (13.55%)

The Jordan Pipes Manufacturing (12.99%)

Taameer Jordan Holdings Public Shareholding Company (12.50%)

Darkom Investment (12.00%)

Top 5 gainers for the last week

Stock % chg

El-Zay Ready Wear Manufacturing 9.09%

Arab Electrical Industries 7.46%

The United Insurance 7.35%

Jordan Loan Guarantee Corporation 6.78%

United Cable Industries 6.67%

28

Local Debt MonitorLatest T-Bills

As of February 15, the volume of excess reserves, including the overnight window deposits held at the CBJ

JD(2,483) million.

Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date1-week CDs

2.500%1,00017/02/201510/02/201502/2015

2.500%1,00010/02/201503/02/201501/2015

Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date3-month T-Bills

2.898%5014/03/201214/12/2011Last issued in December 2011

Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date6-month T-Bills

3.788%5014/08/201214/02/2012Last issued in February 2012

Yield (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date9-month T-Bills

4.285%7504/12/201204/03/2012Last issued in March 2012

Coupon (%)Size - MillionMaturity DateIssue Date1-year T-Bills

2.750%7505/02/201605/02/201501/2015

3.450%5018/11/201518/11/201410/2014

3.270%10012/10/201512/10/201409/2014

3.279%7524/09/201524/09/201408/2014

29

Local Debt MonitorLatest T-Bonds Issues

Coupon (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date2-year T-Bonds

4.202%5018/01/201718/01/2015T0215

4.238%10014/01/201714/01/2015T0115

4.239%5016/12/201616/12/2014T9214

Coupon (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date3-year T-Bonds

4.333%5022/01/201822/01/2015T0415

4.446%5020/01/201820/01/2015T0315

4.735%5011/12/201711/12/2014T9114

Coupon (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date4-year T-Bonds

7.246%37.515/01/201615/01/2012Last issued in January 2012

Coupon (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue Date5-year T-Bonds

5.132%10016/01/202016/01/2015T0515

5.581%5012/11/201912/11/2014T8214

5.533%7516/10/201916/10/2014T7314

Coupon (%)Size - millionMaturity DateIssue DatePublic Utility Bonds

4.263%3019/08/201719/08/2014PB65 (Water Authority)

5.583%32.501/07/201901/07/2014PB64 (Water Authority)

5.850%2230/01/201930/01/2014PB63 (Water Authority)

30

Prime Lending Rates

31

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