23
7 April 2015 Weekly Credit Update Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 21 of this report Senior Analyst Lars Holm +45 45 12 80 41 laho@danskebank.com Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI

Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

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Page 1: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

7 April 2015

Weekly Credit Update

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 21 of this report

Senior Analyst Lars Holm +45 45 12 80 41 [email protected]

Investment Research www.danskebank.com/CI

Page 2: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

2

- Market news

- Company news

- Trade ideas

Contents

- Chart pack

- List of official and shadow ratings and recommendations

- Best and worst performers

Page 3: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

3

Sources: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

What’s on our mind - General credit market news

• Last week was rather quiet due to Easter. The iTraxx Main index widened by 1bp while the iTraxx Crossover narrowed by 2bp.

• Senior unsecured spreads from banks came under some pressure as Germany published a law proposal on bank resolution. The draft stated that senior unsecured bondholders would face losses before any other unsecured creditors (currently they rank pari passu), which would also address some of the legal challenges with both MREL (minimum requirement for eligible liabilities) and TLAC (total loss absorbing capacity). We earlier warned that creating these loss absorbing cushions could be legally challenging, as bailing in some part of unsecured liabilities (bonds) and not all would probably require new bankruptcy laws in many jurisdictions. The German proposal with statutory subordination would solve many of these challenges and pave the way for a ‘Tier 3’ layer in banks’ capital structure (senior to subordinated but subordinated to other senior). Existing bonds are also included in the draft proposal but as retrospective legislation is prohibited under German constitution, it is uncertain if the legislation will also cover existing bonds.

• With regard to broader newsflow, the weaker than expected US labour market report for March released on Good Friday got some attention. Gains in non-farm payrolls slowed to 126,000 (cons: 245,000) and the gains in the previous months were revised lower.

• On a more positive note, Iran and the P5+1 world powers on Thursday reached a framework agreement on containing Iran’s nuclear programme. The impact on oil prices was modest, with most of the initial decline reversed the following day.

Page 4: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

4

Best and worst performers - Investment grade

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies

0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.6

-0.9

-1.0

-1.1

-5.6

-6.0

-6.2

-7.3

-9.5

-10.2

-12.3

-14.3

-28.8

-30.1

-35-30-25-20-15-10-505

DNB Boligkreditt AS EUR 2018

Swedbank AB EUR 2019

SBAB Bank AB EUR 2016

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB EUR …

Danske Bank A/S EUR 2016

Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017

Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA EUR 2023

Swedbank AB EUR 2016

Jyske Bank A/S EUR 2017

Pohjola Bank Oyj EUR 2019

TDC A/S EUR 2022

DNB Bank ASA EUR 2020

TeliaSonera AB EUR 2031

Carlsberg Breweries A/S EUR 2019

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB SEK …

Danske Bank A/S SEK 2019

TDC A/S EUR 2015

Lansforsakringar Bank AB SEK 2020

Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017

SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018

Change in local currencies (bp)

19.5

19.0

16.4

12.7

12.5

12.1

11.8

11.5

11.4

11.3

-5.3

-5.6

-5.8

-5.9

-6.4

-7.1

-8.2

-8.6

-10.7

-12.6

-20-100102030

TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025

TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027

Danske Bank A/S SEK 2017

Telenor ASA EUR 2024

Statkraft AS EUR 2022

TeliaSonera AB EUR 2027

TeliaSonera AB EUR 2025

Sampo Oyj EUR 2021

Nordea Bank AB EUR 2022

Svenska Handelsbanken AB EUR 2022

DNB Bank ASA EUR 2017

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB EUR …

Volvo Treasury AB EUR 2017

Sampo Oyj EUR 2016

Investor AB EUR 2016

Nykredit Bank A/S EUR 2015

SBAB Bank AB SEK 2018

Nordea Bank AB SEK 2017

Neste Oil OYJ EUR 2016

TDC A/S EUR 2015

Change in local currencies (bp)

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5

Best and worst performers - High yield

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies

157

77

53

42

37

29

28

28

21

19

-8

-10

-10

-11

-11

-12

-13

-13

-14

-35

-50050100150200

Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD …

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019

Seadrill Ltd USD 2020

Seadrill Ltd USD 2017

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018

Olympic Ship AS NOK 2019

Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018

Klaveness Ship Holding AS NOK 2020

Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2018

Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2018

Stora Enso OYJ EUR 2018

Stena AB EUR 2020

Stora Enso OYJ SEK 2015

Finnair OYJ EUR 2049

YIT OYJ EUR 2016

SSAB AB SEK 2017

DLG Finance AS DKK 2018

Nokia OYJ USD 2019

Stora Enso OYJ USD 2016

Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay …

Change in local currencies (bp)

344

275

238

229

203

127

125

103

95

84

-36

-38

-41

-41

-47

-47

-50

-52

-53

-101

-200-1000100200300400

Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD …

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019

Seadrill Ltd USD 2020

Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018

Seadrill Ltd USD 2017

Olympic Ship AS NOK 2019

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018

Stena AB USD 2024

Stena International SA USD 2024

Stena AB EUR 2017

Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2018

Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2016

Tallink Grupp AS NOK 2018

Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2019

Finnair OYJ EUR 2049

Solstad Offshore ASA NOK 2019

Stolt-Nielsen Ltd NOK 2016

Prosafe SE NOK 2019

Seadrill Ltd USD 2015

Prosafe SE NOK 2020

Change in local currencies (bp)

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6

Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 – priced attractively (published on 19 March 2015)

Source: Bloomberg, Moody’s, Danske Bank Markets

• Earlier this month [i.e. in March] Vestas issued a 7Y EUR500m senior unsecured bond – the Vestas 2.75% 2022.

• Bond documentation/structure (Vestas 2022) includes the following key terms: cross default, negative pledge (save for carve-out of up to EUR150m as permitted secured debt and/or assets securing non-recourse debt), change of control put (>50% of control/shares).

• We are not aware of the terms present in the EUR1,000m bank RCF facilities, which are likely stricter than the bond terms.

• Given our view of Vestas as a ‘BBB-’ credit ,we regard the current pricing as attractive.

• In our view, a ‘fair’ credit spread for this type of

bond would be in the range of 130-150bp.

• Our ‘fair spread assessment’ is estimated as the 7Y EUR BBB- curve plus a 60-80bp discount due to the lack of an official credit rating and the inherently politically-driven volatility in the business model.

VWSDC '22 (NR/NR)

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250260270280

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Indicative ASW offer (bps)

EUR - credit curves

Global BB+

Corporates: BBB-

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7

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Recent trade ideas

See the end of this presentation for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations

Recent ideas

Type Trade Idea

Outright Buy Vestas 2022. The Vestas EUR 2.75% 2022 trades cheaply to a EUR corporate BBB curve.

Opened 19/03/2015

Start spread 245 Currency trade Close of trade SSAB Recent performance in the SSAB EUR bond has

closed the earlier 19bp gap between the EUR and the SEK 2019 bonds.

Closed 10/03/2015

Start spread -2 Outright Buy Tallink 2018. FRN Tallink 2018 in NOK trades cheap to a global

median ‘BB-’ credit curve (converted into NOK). Opened 27/02/2015

Start spread 470 Outright CITCON '3.75 We believe that CITCON'3.75s trade at an attractive

level relative to the 'BBB' curve. Opened 10/02/2015

Start spread 108 Outright EGASDK '20 EGASDK '20's, which we see as 'B' indicatively trade

way too cheaply relative to the industrial 'B' curve. Opened 02/02/2015

Start spread 661 Sector spread Switch from NDA AT1 to SEB

AT1

We have an ‘Overweight’ recommendation on SEB and an ‘Underweight’ recommendation on Nordea and don’t believe a 14bp pick-up for a four-year maturity extension is worthwhile

Opened 26/01/2015

Start spread -8 Curve spread Switch from SECUSS '17 to

SECUSS '21

The Securitas 2021 bond trades wider than the BBB- curve while the Securitas 2017 bond trades at the BBB+ curve. We recommend buying the Securitas 2021 vs. the Securitas 2017. Pick up 57bp (z-spread) for a four-year maturity extension.

Opened 23/01/2015

Start spread 81 Outright SASSS '17 We believe the SAS 2017 offers an attractive

absolute value – supported by adequate liquidity Opened 18/12/2014

Start spread 807

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8

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Company news from the past week

Name News Implication

Vestas

Vestas (Overweight, DBM: 'BBB-') announced 1,332MW of orders in Q1 15, which is a record-high for Q1. Of this, 38% or 506MW came from Brazil and China. Given the increasing demand for electricity in emerging markets, we consider this region to be an important growth driver for Vestas long term. It is therefore encouraging to see Vestas increase its foothold in the region. We view the announcement as moderately credit positive.

Credit Positive

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9

.

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Selected new issues

Selected new issues

Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM

01/04/2015 Stadshypotek Ab 1.75% USD 1 000 m Apr/20 AA- / Aaae / 37

Page 10: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

10

Chart pack: euro spreads and returns Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices

IG Total Return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100

HY Total Return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100

Page 11: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

11

Chart pack: relative value iTraxx vs iBoxx

Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro vs. US CDS indices - IG (Markit)

EUR CDS Spreads – Nordic Banks

Euro vs. US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)

Page 12: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

12

Chart pack: general market development European swap and government yields

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro swap curve spread

3M TED-spread, US and euro area

EUR/USD basis swaps

Page 13: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

13

Chart pack: fund flows Europe, net sales

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Sweden, net sales

US, net sales

Norway, net sales

Page 14: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

14

Chart pack: macro GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro area y/y change in bank lending

Purchasing manager indices

Euro area lending standards

Page 15: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

15

Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 5

Source: Danske Bank Markets

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj B+ Stable Mads RosendalAkelius Residential Property Ab BBB- Stable BBB- Louis LandemanAmbu A/S BBB- Stable Jakob MagnussenAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTArla Foods Amba BBB+ Stable Mads RosendalAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBank Norwegian As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B Stable Øyvind MossigeBillerudkorsnas Ab BBB- Stable Mads RosendalBw Offshore BB+ Stable Øyvind MossigeCargotec Oyj BBB- Stable Mads RosendalCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTCermaq Asa BB Stable Knut-Ivar BakkenCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Emil HjalmarssonColor Group As BB- Stable B+ Niklas RipaCom Hem Holding Ab BB- Stable Ola HeldalCorem Property Group Ab BB- Stable B+ Emil HjalmarssonDanfoss A/S BBB Stable Jakob MagnussenDanske Bank A/S A Neg A3 A StableDfds A/S BBB- Stable Niklas RipaDlg Finance As BB- Stable Mads RosendalDna Ltd BBB- Stable Ola HeldalDnb Bank Asa A+ Stable A1 T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTDsv A/S BBB Stable Brian BørstingEg Holding B Stable Jakob MagnussenEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmEika Gruppen As BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmElectrolux Ab BBB Stable Wr WD Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTElenia Oy Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHT

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

Page 16: Weekly Credit Update - Danske Bank€¦ · -13-13-14-35 200 150 100 50 0 -50 ... DLG Finance AS DKK 2018 ... 9 . Source: Danske Bank Markets Selected new issues Selected new issues

16

Our coverage and shadow ratings 2 of 5

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookElisa Oyj BBB+ Stable Baa2 Stable Ola Heldal OVERWEIGHTEntra Eiendom As A- Stable Ola HeldalFarstad Shipping Asa BB Neg BB- Øyvind MossigeFingrid Oyj A+ Stable A1 Stable A+ Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTFinnair Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingFortum Oyj A- A2 A- Neg Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHTFortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab BBB+ Stable Jakob MagnussenFred Olsen Energy Asa BB Stable BB- Sondre StormyrG4S Plc BBB- Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTGetinge Ab BB+ Neg Louis LandemanGolden Close Maritime Corp Ltd B- Sondre StormyrHeimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- Louis LandemanHemso Fastighets Ab BBB+ Stable BBB A- Stable Emil HjalmarssonHkscan Oyj BB Stable Brian BørstingHoist Kredit Ab BB- Stable B+ Gabriel BerginHusqvarna Ab BBB- Pos Emil HjalmarssonIkano Bank Ab BBB Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmInvestor Ab AA- Stable A1 Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTIss A/S BBB- Pos Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- Bjørn Kristian RøedJernhusen Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTKesko Oyj BBB Stable Mads RosendalKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedLoomis Ab BBB- Stable Brian BørstingLuossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB+ Stable Louis LandemanMeda Ab BB- Stable Louis LandemanMetsa Board Oyj BB Stable B1 Pos Mads RosendalMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTNcc Ab BBB- Stable Emil HjalmarssonNeste Oil Oyj BBB- Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTNokia Oyj BB Pos Ba2 Pos BB Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTNokian Renkaat Oyj BBB+ Stable Jakob Magnussen

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

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17

Our coverage and shadow ratings 3 of 5

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookNordax Finans Ab BBB- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmNordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTNorth Atlantic Drilling Ltd BB- Neg B+ Sondre StormyrNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa BB- Neg B+ Brian BørstingNorwegian Property Asa BBB- Stable Ola HeldalNykredit Bank A/S A+ Neg Baa A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTNynas Group B+ Stable B+ Jakob MagnussenOcean Yield Asa BB BB- Øyvind MossigeOdfjell Se B+ Stable B Bjørn Kristian RøedOlav Thon Eiendomsselskap Asa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalOlympic Ship As B+ Stable B Øyvind MossigeOrkla Asa BBB+ Pos Ola HeldalOutokumpu Oyj B Pos Mads RosendalPohjola Bank Oyj AA- Neg Aa3 Stable A+ Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTPosten Norge As A- Stable Ola HeldalPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable Gabriel BerginProsafe Se BB Stable Sondre StormyrRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable Brian BørstingSampo Oyj Baa2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSandvik Ab BBB Neg Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTSas Ab B- Stable Wr Stable Brian BørstingSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTScania Ab A- Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTSchibsted Asa BBB Stable Ola HeldalSeadrill Ltd BB Neg BB- Sondre StormyrSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr Brian Børsting MARKET WEIGHTSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Neg A1 A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable Emil HjalmarssonSkf Ab BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTSognekraft As BBB Stable BBB Jakob MagnussenSolstad Offshore Asa BB- Stable B+ Øyvind Mossige

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

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Our coverage and shadow ratings 4 of 5

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable Aaa T. Hovard / L. HolmSparebank 1 Nord Norge A2 A Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSparebank 1 Smn A2 A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A2 A- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm UNDERWEIGHTSponda Oyj BBB- Stable Emil HjalmarssonSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable Jakob MagnussenStatkraft Sf A- Stable Aaa Stable Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHTStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTStatoil Asa AA- Stable Aa2 Stable Jakob Magnussen UNDERWEIGHTSteen & Strom As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalStena Ab BB Stable B2 Stable Niklas Ripa MARKET WEIGHTStockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable Mads RosendalStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB Bjørn Kristian RøedStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Stable WD Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Nr T. Hovard / L. HolmStorebrand Livsforsikring As A- Neg Baa1 Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSunnfjord Energi As BBB- Stable BBB- Jakob MagnussenSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys A- Stable T. Hovard / L. HolmSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable Mads Rosendal OVERWEIGHTSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa3 AA- Stable T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKET WEIGHTSwedavia Ab A- Stable Gabriel BerginSwedbank Ab A+ Neg A1 A+ Pos T. Hovard / L. Holm MARKETWEIGHTSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable Brian Børsting OVERWEIGHTSydbank A/S Baa T. Hovard / L. Holm OVERWEIGHTSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr Emil HjalmarssonTallink Grupp As BB Stable BB- Niklas RipaTdc A/S BBB Neg Baa3 Stable BBB Neg Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB- Stable B+ Bjørn Kristian RøedTele2 Ab BBB Stable Ola HeldalTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHT

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

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Our coverage and shadow ratings 5 of 5

Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookTelenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable Ola Heldal MARKET WEIGHTTeliasonera Ab A- Stable A3 Neg A- Stable Ola Heldal UNDERWEIGHTTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BBB Neg Wr BBB Stable Jakob Magnussen OVERWEIGHTThon Holding As BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalTine Sa BBB+ Stable Ola HeldalUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Stable WD Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTVasakronan Ab A- Stable Emil HjalmarssonVattenfall Ab A- Stable A3 Stable A- Neg Jakob Magnussen MARKET WEIGHTVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB- Pos Niklas Ripa OVERWEIGHTVictoria Park Ab BB- Stable B+ Louis LandemanVolvo Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Neg BBB Stable Mads Rosendal MARKET WEIGHTWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BBB- Stable Bjørn Kristian RøedYit Oyj B Neg Emil Hjalmarsson

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

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20

Fixed Income Credit Research team Thomas Hovard, Chief Analyst Head of Credit Research +45 45 12 85 05 [email protected]

Louis Landeman, Senior Analyst TMT, Industrials +46 8 568 80524 [email protected]

Mads Rosendal, Analyst Industrials, Pulp & Paper +46 8 568 80594 [email protected]

Jakob Magnussen, Senior Analyst Utilities, Energy +45 45 12 85 03 [email protected]

Knut-Ivar Bakken, Senior Analyst Fish Farming +47 85 40 70 74 [email protected]

Brian Børsting, Senior Analyst Industrials +45 45 12 85 19 [email protected]

Lars Holm, Senior Analyst Financials +45 45 12 80 41 [email protected]

Gabriel Bergin, Analyst Strategy, Industrials +46 8 568 80602 [email protected]

Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst High Yield, Industrials +45 45 12 80 47 [email protected]

Bjørn Kristian Røed, Senior Analyst Shipping +47 85 40 70 72 [email protected]

Ola Heldal, Senior Analyst TMT +47 85 40 84 33 [email protected]

Sondre Dale Stormyr, Senior Analyst Offshore Rigs +47 85 40 70 70 [email protected]

Henrik René Andresen, Senior Analyst Credit Portfolios +45 45 13 33 27 [email protected]

Øyvind Mossige, Senior Analyst Oil Services +47 85 40 54 91 [email protected]

Emil Hjalmarsson, Senior Analyst Real Estate, Construction +46 8 568 80634 [email protected]

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Disclosures

This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of this research report is Lars Holm, Senior Analyst.

Analyst certification

Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report.

Regulation

Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request.

The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts’ rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.

Conflicts of interest

Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank’s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank’s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank’s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank.

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General disclaimer

This research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) (‘Relevant Financial Instruments’).

The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report.

The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report.

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Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States

This research report is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to ‘U.S. institutional investors’ as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to ‘U.S. institutional investors’.

Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-U.S. jurisdiction.

Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non-U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.