Week 1A: Intro to Energy Sustainabilityauroenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Week1A_Intro_SOS3241.pdf · 7. Si lSocietal problems caused by hi hhigh energy use 8. Climate change

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Week 1A: Intro to Energy Sustainability

T. Agami Reddy

Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ

Outline1. Collapses in the past2. Sustainability: Definitions and concepts3. Deficiency of sustainability metrics4. Sustainable development5. Environmental challenges6. Energy use7 S i l bl d b hi h7. Societal problems caused by high energy use8. Climate change9. Hindrances to adoption of non‐fossil fuels10. Sustainable energy pathways11. Need for technical and quantitative literacy

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Historic civilizationswhich collapsed!THE WORLD IS MOREINTERCONNECTED NOW!

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Definitions of SustainabilityPerhaps the most widely cited qualitative definition:

• Sustainable development is one which “meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future p p g ygenerations to meet their own needs” (Brundtland, UN, 1987)

Sustainable development•Those paths of social, economic, and political progress that

meet the needs of the present without compromising


the ability of future generations to meet their own needs (Steele, 1997)

Another view :

Sustainability represents one of the most challenging interface problems in science today The design of ainterface problems in science today. The design of a sustainable interface between the natural environment and the built or designed environment is as essential to our collective well‐being as any

intellectual pursuit of the age.

Mi h l CMichael Crowe,

President of ASU


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Sustainability as an interface issue that balances development/growth and long‐term needs of all four systems

Natural systems

Trade and Commerce, Banking, Healthcare, Education, Law, Government, Defense

Atmosphere,Environment,Oceans, Lakes, Rivers,Flora, Fauna

Social or collective systems

Engineered systems

International relations

Buildings

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Individual

Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy

Buildings,Transportation,Manufacturing, Highways, Bridges, Water distribution, Telecommunication

Prosperity,Sense of justicePursuit of happiness

Ambiguity in the term “Sustainability”• The concept of “sustainability” is relative rather than absolute

• What is sustained?

The earth? Biodiversity? Human life? Living standards?The earth? Biodiversity? Human life? Living standards?

• What is meant by “future” 25 years, 50 years, 100 years, 500 years…. 1 million years?

• To what geographic scale is it best applied to: entity (building, industry), community, city/metro, state, region, country, global

The definition of sustainability has become increasingly ambiguous as different definitions emerge depending on specific circumstances


(slide from Allenby, 2010)

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The Deficiency of Sustainability Metrics

• Is sustainability a set of quantifiable objectives, or is it a contemporary myth?it a contemporary myth?

– Developed to explain complexities we can’t yet approach descriptively (evolution of the anthropogenic Earth)

– Developed for us to “feel good” about ourselves and as a “marketing” tool

– Translation of vague sustainability issues into design objectives and constraints is biggest gap



Sustainable Development‐ A Myth?

“On the one hand, [sustainable development] represents much more than simply an analytical approach to environmental auditing or improving business accountability. It also encompasses and represents a way of acknowledging our values and beliefs, and ascribing meaning to our activities…… it must also be acknowledged that sustainable development is both ideological and immature. As such, it has neither the breadth nor the profundity of the traditions that, to an extent, it supersedes.”p

S. Walker, Sustainability – the evolution of a contemporary myth, Proceedings of the 5th European Academy of Design Conference, Barcelona, Spain, retrieved Jan 11, 2007, from www.ub.es/5ead/PDF/5%20/walker.pdf, p. 8



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Most Serious Environmental Problemsfrom “Collapse” by Jared Diamond

• Destruction of natural habitats• Overfishing SustainabilityOverfishing• Loss of genetic diversity• Farmland soil erosion• Fossil fuel depletion• Dwindling fresh water• Environmental pollutionI d i f “ li ” i

Sustainability includes, but goes far beyond environmental studies

• Introduction of “alien” species• Human population growth and impact• ….


Sustainability is about:

• being aware of connectivity of the world and the implications of our actions (awareness)

Sustainability Is:

(awareness),

• finding solutions (creativity), expanding options (stewardship),

• building institutions that continually learn (governance), and

• instilling a sense of justice (values).

Ultimately, sustainability is about doing the right thing.

-- Chuck Redman, DirectorSchool of Sustainability at ASU

10Week 1A‐SOS 324‐ReddyRather wishy‐washy statement!

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Energy Use‐Background

• Energy use is central to the functioning and development of societiesdevelopment of societies

• Large amounts of energy are used in the world (and the United States in particular)

• Even small annual increases in energy use has drastic results‐ exponential growth

( rates in developing countries are relatively large)

• We are close to running out of conventional energy resources (currently supplies 85% of needs)

• Energy use is causing other societal problems


World primary energy use has increased exponentially(part of the reason is population increase)


Population growth from 1950: About 220% Energy growth: About 420%

From Boyle et al., 2004‐ Energy Systems and Sustainability

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Societal Problems caused by high carbon-based energy use

Running out Cli t h ( l l i th h )Climate change (sea level rise, weather changes,…) Environmental degradation (air, water, land)Effect on human healthEffect on eco-systemsEffect on species (extinction, loss of diversity,…) Dependence on other countries for energy supplies

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Dependence on other countries for energy supplies(energy security)

Social inequity


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Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

From IPCC report, 200715Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy


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Greenhouse gas emissions‐Large inequity among countries

From: David McKay, 2009Without the Hot Air


Hindrances to Adoption of Non‐Fossil Fuels

• Govt. inability to set limits to CO2

• Dissension among professionals on the impact of climate• Dissension among professionals on the impact of climate change on GDF

• “Tragedy of commons” effect

• Lack of proper energy policy

• Well established fossil based industry

• Psychological barriers of adoption by individuals

• Cost barriers (renewables have higher first costs)


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Setting Limits to Atmospheric CO2 Levels

‐UN International Earth Summit, Rio de Janerio, 1992:adopted UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

‐Kyoto Protocol (1997) amendment where industrialized countriesagreed to reduce their emissions on greenhouse gasesby 5.2% compared to 1990

‐The protocol came into force in February 2005. Over 160 countries ratified the agreement (notable exceptions‐ US and Australia).The US felt that it would damage the economy, and objected to


g y, jfact that developing countries were not required to reduce emissionsprotocol ends in 2012

‐Copenhagen meeting (Dec 7, 2009)‐ no resolution

Another sourceOf uncertaintyIn the climatechangedebate:debate:

Largedifferencesamong scientistson potentialimplications

Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy 20From Nordhaus (1994)

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This perspective referred to as:

the tragedy of the commonsis a dilemma arising from the situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently, and solely and rationally consulting their own self‐interest, will ultimately deplete a shared li it d h it


limited resource even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long‐term interest for this to happen.

Sustainable Energy Pathways

• Boyle et al. (2003) define energy sustainability to mean harnessing energy sources:

‐ that are not substantially depleted by continued use

‐ the use of which does not entail the emission of pollutants or other hazards to the environment on a substantial scale

‐ the use of which does not involve the perpetuation of substantial health hazards or social injusticesj


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Sustainable Energy Pathways 1/2

• Improve the energy and material efficiency of processes involving the exploration, extraction, transportation and conversion/refining of fossil fuels

• Use fossil fuels in a more “clean and safe” manner by better technology and rational public policy measurestechnology and rational public policy measures – improve miles per gallon for transportation– develop alternative transportation (hydrogen, electric cars,…)– encourage more efficient transportation (public)– clean coal technologies (coal‐derived synthetic gas)– coal capture and sequestration in coal power plants– safer nuclear disposal technology

• Improve supply side efficiency of gas/oil technologies ‐ combined cycle gas turbine systems

Boyle, 2004Energy Systems and Sustainability

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y g y‐ combined heat and power system‐ distributed generation

• Improve and promote renewable energy sources and technologies• Improve existing energy carrier systems (such as electric grid) and

energy storage (such as hydrogen, batteries,…)


Sustainable Energy Pathways 2/2• Enhance demand‐side or end use energy conservation‐ improve

efficiency of equipment and implement better management practices

• Push for structural changes ‐ in the manner in which energy is used‐ in power generation and manufacturing‐ improve match between load requirements and energy source using 2nd

law of thermodynamics with its built‐in measure of quality )

• Improve/revise design and costing methods: ‐ Life cycle analysis‐ embodied energy‐ Include adverse cost of global warming‐ carbon tax/carbon trading‐ Properly account for hidden costs of conventional energy

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Properly account for hidden costs of conventional energy

• Policy‐ proper incentives for energy conservation/ renewables‐ have a coherent long‐term energy plan

• Individual‐ changes in lifestyle at societal level‐ need for some sacrifice (see article by Laband and South)Week 1A‐SOS 324‐Reddy

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Historical Carbon Emissions with TwoPotential Pathways for the Future

7 Wedges14

Socolow & Pacala- Carbon Stabilization Wedges

StabilizationTriangle

lions of Tons of Carbon

Emitted Per Year

gare neededto build the stabilizationtriangle.

1 Wedgeavoids 1 billion

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Flat Path

2004 2054

Year

Bill tons of carbon

emissions per yearby 2054.

71 “Wedge”

Source: R. Socolow, R. Hotinski, J.B. Greenblatt, and S. Pacala.


Carbon Wedges


Source: Socolow & Pacala,

“A plan to keep carbon in check”

Scientific American, Sept. 2006

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SOS 324: Technical Literacy

• Introductory course meant to provide a broad overview of the science, engineering and potential of renewable energy‐ some amount of quantification is imperative for proper comprehension

• Enhance your ability to do SIMPLIFIED calculations so that you could make your own conclusions in the future

‐ Order of magnitude calculation

‐ For social and policy implications: accuracy about 20%

‐ For actual implementation, accuracy <5%

• Will not cover ethical or social aspects

• Meant for science, business, policy students

Course Overview‐SOS 324‐Reddy 27

How to Evaluate Factual Assertions• Off shore wind (wind energy is the most effective RE

technology) can satisfy all our energy needs

• By eliminating “parasitic or standy‐ electric losses” in all USBy eliminating parasitic or standy‐ electric losses in all US homes, one can avoid as much oil as we get from Alaska.

• If everyone changes his/her thermostat by 1 F, drives a smaller car, and becomes a vegetarian, an energy crisis can be averted.

• Climate change is the most critical threat faced by mankind (not a factual assertion which moreover is untrue(not a factual assertion which moreover is untrue‐international terrorism is more critical)

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Avoid using numbers to impress by their magnitude :‐LA residents drive 142 million miles /day‐ the distance from the Earth to Mars

‐Each year, 27 million acres of rainforest are destroyed

Documents

Week 1A: Intro to Energy Sustainabilityauroenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/Week1A_Intro_SOS3241.pdf · 7. Si lSocietal problems caused by hi hhigh energy use 8. Climate change