15
Wednesday, 7 June 2017 Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform) 2 Priced for perfection Chalinee Congmuang We initiate coverage on BEAUTY with a non-consensus Underperform rating and a DCF-based TP of Bt8.0, or 27% downside potential, as we believe the market has already priced the shares for perfection. AAC (Underperform) 3 Switch out to safer pool Allen Chang AAC hosted a conf-call on clarification announcement. Key messages from management included: 1) resume trading on Jun 7, 2) deny the allegations, 3) maintain guidance on business outlook, and 4) will not exclude the possibility of shares repurchase. Haichang Ocean Park (Outperform) 4 Higher Visitation in 1H17 Timothy Lam We believe Haichang could see 15% YoY revenue growth in 1H17, driven by more favourable visitation during the Chinese New Year holidays as well as successful promotions during the May holidays and China's Children Day on June 1. India Strategy 5 Stay on the bandwagon Inderjeetsingh Bhatia Q4FY17 numbers confirmed nascent recovery post demonetisation with outlook being more constructive in the past. Commentary from domestic sectors is encouraging while export led sectors disappointed. Malaysia Strategy 6 1Q17 results wrap: hesitant start Anand Pathmakanthan Contrary to earlier expectations that 4Q16 kitchen-sinking and commodity price recovery would see market earnings recovery gain traction, 1Q17 reporting proved disappointing. IJM Corporation (Downgrade to Neutral) 7 MacVisit: Leopalace21 8 Tongda (Outperform) 9 Toshiba (Neutral) 10 Global Dynamics 11 Internet traffic in India 12 Please refer to page 13 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

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Page 1: Wednesday, 7 June 2017 - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/6/7/be6... · 6/7/2017  · Wednesday, 7 June 2017 Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform)

Wednesday, 7 June 2017

Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform) 2

Priced for perfection Chalinee Congmuang

We initiate coverage on BEAUTY with a non-consensus Underperform rating and a DCF-based TP ofBt8.0, or 27% downside potential, as we believe the market has already priced the shares for perfection.

AAC (Underperform) 3

Switch out to safer pool Allen Chang

AAC hosted a conf-call on clarification announcement. Key messages from management included: 1)resume trading on Jun 7, 2) deny the allegations, 3) maintain guidance on business outlook, and 4) willnot exclude the possibility of shares repurchase.

Haichang Ocean Park (Outperform) 4

Higher Visitation in 1H17 Timothy Lam

We believe Haichang could see 15% YoY revenue growth in 1H17, driven by more favourable visitationduring the Chinese New Year holidays as well as successful promotions during the May holidays andChina's Children Day on June 1.

India Strategy 5

Stay on the bandwagon Inderjeetsingh Bhatia

Q4FY17 numbers confirmed nascent recovery post demonetisation with outlook being moreconstructive in the past. Commentary from domestic sectors is encouraging while export led sectorsdisappointed.

Malaysia Strategy 6

1Q17 results wrap: hesitant start Anand Pathmakanthan

Contrary to earlier expectations that 4Q16 kitchen-sinking and commodity price recovery would seemarket earnings recovery gain traction, 1Q17 reporting proved disappointing.

IJM Corporation (Downgrade to Neutral) 7

MacVisit: Leopalace21 8

Tongda (Outperform) 9

Toshiba (Neutral) 10

Global Dynamics 11

Internet traffic in India 12

Please refer to page 13 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Page 2: Wednesday, 7 June 2017 - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/6/7/be6... · 6/7/2017  · Wednesday, 7 June 2017 Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform)

THAILAND

BEAUTY TB Underperform

Price (at 08:50, 06 Jun 2017 GMT) Bt11.30

Valuation Bt 8.00 - DCF (WACC 10.5%)

12-month target Bt 8.00

Upside/Downside % -29.2

12-month TSR % -26.7

Volatility Index Medium

GICS sector Retailing

Market cap Btm 33,911

Market cap US$m 992

Free float % 55

30-day avg turnover US$m 7.4

Number shares on issue m 3,001

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue m 2,545.7 3,299.6 3,833.6 4,316.6 EBIT m 808.0 1,124.0 1,322.7 1,511.6 EBIT growth % 65.2 39.1 17.7 14.3 Reported profit m 656.0 903.4 1,063.4 1,215.5 Adjusted profit m 656.0 903.4 1,063.4 1,215.5 EPS rep Bt 0.22 0.30 0.35 0.41 EPS rep growth % 429.7 37.7 17.7 14.3 EPS adj Bt 0.22 0.30 0.35 0.41 EPS adj growth % 96.4 37.7 17.7 14.3 PER rep x 51.7 37.5 31.9 27.9 PER adj x 51.7 37.5 31.9 27.9 Total DPS Bt 0.22 0.26 0.30 0.34

Total div yield % 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1

ROA % 49.8 58.8 60.0 61.1 ROE % 53.2 65.0 69.1 71.1 EV/EBITDA x 38.3 27.8 23.8 21.0 Net debt/equity % -16.4 -19.7 -26.4 -32.8 P/BV x 25.7 23.3 21.0 18.8

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2017

(all figures in THB unless noted)

Expect BEAUTY’s sales growth to fall

Source: Company Data, Macquarie Research, June 2017

Analyst(s) Chalinee Congmuang+66 2 694 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Limited

Beauty Community Priced for perfection We initiate coverage on BEAUTY with a non-consensus Underperform rating

and a DCF-based TP of Bt8.0, or 27% downside potential, as we believe the

market has already priced the shares for perfection. The share price has risen

sharply on rapidly growing sales and net profit on expanding market share and

margins. But in contrast with the street, we expect both earnings and profitability

to normalize rather than continue to accelerate exponentially as reflected in its

lofty valuation. We think BEAUTY’s risk/reward ratio is unattractive on 38x 2017e

PER, almost 2-std above its 4-year average. It is also the most expensive

cosmetic stock in the region. In the Thai retail segment, we prefer CPALL and

HMPRO for their dominant industry positions and quality growth.

A financially strong firm in a growing but crowded industry

Thailand’s cosmetic and skincare sales doubled in the past decade. The willingness

of Thais to spend on appearance has been bolstered by growing disposable

income and urbanization. But the industry is highly fragmented and crowded as

it is easy to start a Thai cosmetics business with as little as Bt30k ($860). Using

a unique marketing concept, Beauty Buffet, BEAUTY achieved a high 34% EBIT

margin, low gearing (net cash) and lofty ROE of 65% in 2017E.

Fast cosmetics; earnings likely to normalize

We project BEAUTY’s 2017-19 EPS CAGR at 15% vs. 48% in 2014-16. While the market values the company at 30-40x PE in line with its historic growth trend, we believe BEAUTY’s earnings growth will normalise on:

The industry’s low entry barriers will allow more competition (ie, Thai

market is highly fragmented with shop brand channel only accounting

for 7% of Thailand’s cosmetic and skincare industry value)

BEAUTY’s products are ‘fast cosmetics’ (trendy with a short lifecycle)

making it difficult to have high certainty on SSSg and sales growth: and

Rapidly growing new distribution channels like modern trade,

e-commerce and overseas have lower profit margins. We thus

expect limited profit margin growth for BEAUTY going forward.

What can go wrong?

The industry can be very crowded leading to price competition due to low barrier

to entry which can lead to lower profit margins. Given the short product lifecycle,

BEAUTY’s brand/products can quickly lose favour and the company could fail to

replace fading products with new products and this might lead to falling sales

growth and longer inventory days. We reflect this potential in our base and bear

case scenarios that yield fair value of Bt8 and Bt7/share, respectively. We believe

declines in SSSg and overall sales growth in 2017-18 will be the key catalyst that

will drive down Beauty’s share price.

Key risks to our call

Main risks to our call on BEAUTY are sales contribution from its overseas

operations and other distribution channels increase significantly and stronger-

than-expected SSSg. BEAUTY scores in the 1st quartile of our Macquarie

Governance & Risk Score and in the 2nd quartile for Corporate Governance.

39.3

30.4

43.2

29.6

16.2

12.6

26.9

16.9

22.6

16.0

7.0 7.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E

(%)

Sales (LHS) Sales growth (RHS) SSSg (RHS)

2

Page 3: Wednesday, 7 June 2017 - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/6/7/be6... · 6/7/2017  · Wednesday, 7 June 2017 Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform)

Please refer to page 9 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

HONG KONG

2018 HK Underperform

Price (at CLOSE#, 06 Jun 2017) HK$81.43

Valuation HK$ 75.00 - PER

12-month target HK$ 75.00

Upside/Downside % -7.9

12-month TSR % -5.5

Volatility Index Medium

GICS sector Technology Hardware & Equipment

Market cap HK$m 99,996

Market cap US$m 13,018

Free float % 60

30-day avg turnover US$m 78.4

Number shares on issue m 1,228

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue m 15,507 19,781 22,765 26,223 EBITDA m 5,662 7,331 7,923 8,713 EBITDA growth % 35.8 29.5 8.1 10.0 EBIT m 4,700 6,097 6,654 7,414 EBIT growth % 35.9 29.7 9.1 11.4 Reported profit m 4,026 5,136 5,665 6,246

EPS rep Rmb 3.28 4.18 4.61 5.09 EPS rep growth % 29.6 27.6 10.3 10.3 PER rep x 21.7 17.0 15.4 14.0 Total DPS Rmb 1.27 1.61 1.78 1.96 Total div yield % 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.8 ROA % 23.1 22.9 21.3 20.6 ROE % 31.7 32.6 29.7 27.5 EV/EBITDA x 15.4 11.9 11.0 10.0 Net debt/equity % -3.9 -14.6 -24.8 -32.8

P/BV x 6.2 5.0 4.2 3.5

2018 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2017

(all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD)

Analyst(s) Allen Chang +852 3922 1136 [email protected] Verena Jeng +852 3922 3766 [email protected] Chris Yu +86 21 2412 9024 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Capital Limited

AAC Switch out to safer pool Event

AAC hosted a conf-call on clarification announcement. Key messages

from management included: 1) resume trading on Jun 7, 2) deny the

allegations, 3) maintain guidance on business outlook, and 4) will not exclude

the possibility of shares repurchase. Key FAQs included: 1) whether all

suppliers are regulated and will it affect AAC’s business outlook, 2) related

party / business interaction, and 3) guidelines on trading halt and resume.

Prefer to switch out to safer pool: As we highlighted in May (report link,

Where to park nicely, May 22), we expect the recent share price volatility

and Street worries caused by AAC’s stock suspension to last for a while. We

prefer 1) Telecom names: CU, CM, and ZTE, 2) strong growth (>30% YoY

EPS growth) stocks: Sunny Optical, ASMPT, and Tongda, and 3) attractive

valuation names: Lenovo.

Downside risks on valuation after 12-day suspension: We believe the

suspension is at the expense of the company's valuation. The stock was on a

trading halt since May 18 after share price down 10.6% on the day. The stock

traded between 10-22x, and our target PE multiple is at 13x.

Impact

Good company and good products, but we are cautious about share

price risk-reward from here: Our investment thesis remains consistent – we

like AAC’s handset lens development, which will likely lead to gaining market

share from Largan in the long term, but insignificant to earnings; we remain

cautious about its core business Speaker box, Haptics, RF mechanicals, and

new business 3D glass given the fierce competition ahead.

What we don't like – major business under pressure: 1) speaker box: We

see the existing competitor, Goertek, as being aggressive in pricing to gain

more market share and we expect Luxshare and Sunway will intensify the

competition from late 2017. 2) GM for Haptics and RF antenna was down

from 51% in 2015 to 40% in 2016, implying an increasing portion of RF

antenna, GM of which is lower than the company’s blended GM. Pressure

from capable haptics competitors from Japan and numerous suppliers in RF

antenna. 3) GM of 3D glass should also be below the company’s blended

GM, based on Lens Tech's historical GM of 25–30%.

What we like – Handset Lens: We like AAC’s handset lens development,

which will lead to likely gaining market share from Largan given AAC’s good

customer relationships with Apple and China smartphones.

Earnings and target price revision

No change.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: HK$75.00 based on a PER method (13x 2018E PE).

Catalyst: 2Q17 results

Action and recommendation

Maintain Underperform.

3

Page 4: Wednesday, 7 June 2017 - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/6/7/be6... · 6/7/2017  · Wednesday, 7 June 2017 Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform)

Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

HONG KONG

2255 HK Outperform

Price (at 08:50, 06 Jun 2017 GMT) HK$1.62

Valuation HK$ 2.22 - DCF (WACC 8.1%, beta 1.0, ERP 7.0%, RFR 3.0%, TGR 2.0%)

12-month target HK$ 2.22

Upside/Downside % +37.0

12-month TSR % +37.0

Volatility Index Medium

GICS sector Consumer Services

Market cap HK$m 6,480

Market cap US$m 832

Free float % 29

30-day avg turnover US$m 0.2

Number shares on issue m 4,000

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue m 1,649.7 2,006.6 2,999.4 3,682.2 EBIT m 453.5 503.5 655.0 785.6 EBIT growth % 28.1 11.0 30.1 19.9 Reported profit m 201.0 227.8 292.8 310.8 Adjusted profit m 201.0 227.8 292.8 310.8 EPS rep Rmb 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 EPS rep growth % -12.9 13.3 28.5 6.2 EPS adj Rmb 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 EPS adj growth % 108.1 13.3 28.5 6.2 PER rep x 28.2 24.9 19.4 18.2 PER adj x 28.2 24.9 19.4 18.2 Total DPS Rmb 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 Total div yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 ROA % 5.2 5.3 6.4 7.0 ROE % 5.1 5.5 6.6 6.6 EV/EBITDA x 12.0 10.8 8.6 7.4 Net debt/equity % 47.9 56.1 62.0 59.8 P/BV x 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2

2255 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2017

(all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in HKD)

Analyst(s) Timothy Lam +852 3922 1086 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Capital Limited

Haichang Ocean Park Higher Visitation in 1H17 Event

We believe Haichang could see 15% YoY revenue growth in 1H17, driven by

more favourable visitation during the Chinese New Year holidays as well as

successful promotions during the May holidays and China’s Children Day on

June 1. We forecast 13% YoY EPS growth in FY17 and 29% YoY in FY18.

FY18’s growth will be driven by the opening of its new Shanghai marine park.

We expect Haichang to provide further details on its Shanghai park pricing

and visitation forecasts by 2H17. Besides Shanghai, the company will also

look to complete its Sanya project by end-2018, as well as develop other

operations-focused projects to drive long-term growth.

Impact

Haichang has been benefiting from better EBITDA margins at its Tianjin and

Qingdao projects. We expect improvement for its Dalian projects, after

completion of major upgrades at Dalian Discoveryland in 2017.

The company has been re-packaging its non-ticket offerings, with a wider

selection of merchandise under its own IP, such as “Marine Families (海洋家

族)” and “Seven Guardians (七萌團)”. Haichang also released a number of

brand placements in films and animations, to enhance its brand recognition.

Earnings and target price revision

We revise our 2017/18E EPS by 2%/(11%) to factor in higher top-line

revenue, while the company may see higher ramp-up costs for Sanya in 2018.

We also raise our DCF-based TP to HK$2.22 (from HK$2.00), as we forecast

better free cashflow as its new projects ramp.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: HK$2.22 based on a DCF methodology.

Catalyst: 1) completion of Shanghai theme park construction; 2) new asset-

light project acquisitions; 3) rise in visitation and spending for its existing

facilities.

Action and recommendation

We have an Outperform rating on Haichang. While the company has faced

low liquidity in the past few months, we believe investors may re-visit as it

shows better clarity on its new park in Shanghai.

Other catalysts are a rise in domestic consumption, acquisition of new

projects, and improvement of its existing operations.

Haichang was removed from SZ-HK Connect in March, due to its low share

liquidity. We believe the company may also seek to participate in more

investor events to boost investor interest.

4

Page 5: Wednesday, 7 June 2017 - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/6/7/be6... · 6/7/2017  · Wednesday, 7 June 2017 Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform)

Please refer to page 24 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

INDIA

Top Large Cap picks in India

No Stock Ticker

1 HDFC Bank HDFCB IN 2 Hero MotoCorp HMCL IN 3 L&T LT IN 4 Vedanta VEDL IN 5 ITC ITC IN 6 ICICI Bank ICICIBC IN

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017

Top mid cap picks in India

No Stock Ticker

1 Dish TV DITV IN 2 Crompton Consumer CROMPTON IN 3 Chola Finance CIFC IN 4 Prestige PEPL IN 5 Glenmark GNP IN 6 NCC NJCC IN

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017

Top Sells

No Stock Ticker

1 Wipro WPRO IN 2 Coal India COAL IN 3 BHEL BHEL IN 4 UNSP UNSP IN

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017

Nifty EPS - We are above consensus for FY18 and in line on FY19E

FY17 FY18E FY19E

Macquarie EPS 433 492 581 %YoY Growth 14% 18% Consensus EPS 433 482 580 %YoY Growth 11% 20%

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017

Analyst(s) Inderjeetsingh Bhatia +91 22 6720 4087 [email protected] Sumangal Nevatia, CFA +91 22 6720 4093 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) Ltd

India Strategy Stay on the bandwagon Event

Q4FY17 numbers confirmed nascent recovery post demonetisation with

outlook being more constructive in the past. Commentary from domestic

sectors is encouraging while export led sectors disappointed. We revisit our

sector preferences – Overweight on Financials, Consumer, Industrials and

Autos (neutral earlier), Equal weight on Energy (underweight earlier) and

Metals while underweight on IT (equal weight earlier) and Pharma. We add

ICICI Bank to Top India picks.

Impact

Earnings point to some recovery in cyclicals, trend to strengthen in

FY18: Q4FY17 earnings witnessed constructive commentary from many of

the cyclical sectors like Autos, Capital Goods and Financials. Private Banks

are hinting at retail growth to revert to 17-18% levels after dipping to 13% in

FY17. Capital Goods companies have been most optimistic about future since

2014 on back of improving visibility on government projects. We expect

earnings to further strengthen as rural recovery takes shape along with

improvement in execution on government projects.

Risk to earnings projections factored with recent cuts: Consensus

earnings forecast 11% growth for Nifty in FY18 is significantly lower than 16%

in early April. IT, Energy (mainly Reliance) and Banks have led the earnings

cut for FY18. Consumer related sectors too, cuts have happened to probably

factor in near term disruption of GST.

Market to look through near term GST disruption: Government has

resisted so far any move to delay GST implementation and deadline of 1st July

remains. There are reports from white goods companies regarding de-

stocking the channel but we believe this a short term phenomenon as early

festive season would lead to sharp improvement in sales in Q2. Any market

correction due to GST would be an opportunity to add positions.

Monsoon and interest rate narrative could be near term triggers while

Farm Loan waivers is an emerging risk: Markets would extend the

monsoon cheer if rains match forecasts. Another interesting narrative could

be on interest rates. Market has fully factored in bottoming interest rate which

can be challenged with sustained low inflation and weakness in GDP data.

Meanwhile, state of Maharashtra following UP in farm loan waiver increases

risk of other states following suit.

Outlook

Preference for domestic cyclicals: With the government getting into the

business end of its term with lower pressure on fiscal management, domestic

cyclicals like Infra, Housing and Rural consumption should be top themes.

Financials remain a great way to play these themes. Robust domestic flows,

limited investment alternatives would keep valuation stretched.

Add ICICI Bank to top picks list: We are adding ICICI Bank to our top pick

list as most of the stress in the corporate book is already recognised and

valuations at 1.2x core P/B sufficiently factor the stress, in our view. Other top

picks are ITC, L&T, HDFC Bank, Hero Motocorp and Vedanta.

5

Page 6: Wednesday, 7 June 2017 - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/6/7/be6... · 6/7/2017  · Wednesday, 7 June 2017 Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform)

Please refer to page 11 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

MALAYSIA

1Q17 results: by-sector round-up

Sectors Beat In-line Miss

Banks/Financials 2 4 2

Telcos 0 5 0

Utilities 1 2 0

Oil & Gas 1 1 0

Plantation 0 3 1

Gloves 0 1 0

Consumer 0 1 2

Transportation 0 1 5

Construction 0 2 1

Property / REITs 1 3 2

Healthcare 0 2 0

Media 0 0 1

Technology & IT 0 2 0

Gaming 0 0 1

Insurance 0 0 1

Total 5 27 16

Source: Macquarie Research, June 2017

Malaysia: earnings growth by sector

Sector Net profit growth (m-cap weighted average)

2016A 2017E 2018E

Banks/Financials 1% 9% 9%

Telcos -15% 8% 5%

Utilities 18% 1% 1%

Oil & Gas -73% -1% 57%

Plantation 13% 24% 11%

Gloves 13% 6% 8%

Consumer 0% -15% -4%

Transportation 80% -5% 6%

Construction 10% 10% 16%

Property/REITs -2% 4% -4%

Healthcare -32% 79% 24%

Media -12% 28% 16%

Technology & IT 40% 35% 21%

Gaming 12% -4% 27%

Insurance 16% -7% 13%

Market 3.2% 8.5%* 8.8%

*After adjustments for Tenaga and Axiata.

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2017

KLCI consensus EPS growth trend

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, June 2017

Analyst(s) Anand Pathmakanthan +603 2059 8993 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.

Malaysia Strategy 1Q17 results wrap: hesitant start Conclusion

Contrary to earlier expectations that 4Q16 kitchen-sinking and commodity price

recovery would see market earnings recovery gain traction, 1Q17 reporting

proved disappointing. While the number of companies meeting expectations

rose to 27 (4Q: 21), the number that missed inched higher to 16 (4Q: 15), and

only 5 beat. Guidance outside of banks, tech/exporters and construction

remained uninspiring, with expectations of market earnings acceleration intact

as underscored by unchanged 2017 KLCI consensus EPS growth forecast.

Impact

Consensus unfazed: also reflecting to some extent the general reluctance to

adjust earnings early in the year notwithstanding the weak start, consensus

has not materially adjusted 2017 KLCI EPS growth expectations, i.e., still at

the post-4Q 6%, with 2018 forecast at a faster 12.7%. For Macquarie

coverage, earnings upgrades post-4Q results, especially for banks and oil &

gas, and our above-consensus earnings estimates for heavyweights like

Tenaga, Sime Darby and IHH (as well as new coverage POS(M) and HL

Bank) have our 2017/2018 one-offs-adjusted earnings growth at 8.5%/8.8%.

Banks the biggest beat…: per improving operating trends in 4Q, particularly

in support of net interest margin (NIM) recovery, the bigger banks delivered a

convincing earnings recovery, underpinned by positive jaws (i.e. higher NIM,

contained operating expenses) and lower credit costs. These drivers appear

sustainable against a backdrop of accelerating GDP growth, with restructuring

activity (CIMB’s broking arm sale, AMMB-RHB merger talks) also picking up.

…with plantations, telcos in-line: in line with a much higher 1Q CPO price

(+29% YoY), plantation companies delivered on expectations of sharp recovery

(only IOI missed due to lower CPO production). Telcos also met expectations,

with Maxis performing best among the pressured mobile operators (DiGi the

worst) while preferred fixed-line players Telekom and Time were resilient.

Transport/logistics, consumer, GENM disappoint: the mixed bag that is

transport/logistics missed for a variety of reasons, from kitchen-sinking (POS)

to higher taxes (MAHB), to negative yield-cost dynamics (AAX, downgraded

to Neutral). Karex and BAT were big misses re consumer, underscoring our

negative view on both, while GENM’s sluggish core Malaysian visitorship and

earnings have us reiterating the share price has run ahead of fundamentals.

KLCI upside anchored by big-cap picks: TP upsides for big-caps – Tenaga,

Telekom, Sime Darby and IHH (vs. downsides for PetGas, PetDag and Digi) –

underpin MQ bottom-up 12mth KLCI target of 1,836, or +2.7% upside.

Outlook

GLC Reform is our key market theme for 2017, top picks being Tenaga, Sime

Darby and POS(M). With scope for debt-funded fiscal stimulus and trade

expansion constrained, necessity of internally-generated, debt-neutral growth

means rising pressure for domestic reforms, particularly re GLCs where we

are already seeing momentum re management changes, rising GLIC activism.

Other big cap picks (Fig 2) include Telekom, IHH, Gamuda, CIMB, SP Setia

and AirAsia. Mid-caps with resilient yield and core franchises are Bursa(M),

Gas(M) and TimedotCom; we also like HLBK, Bumi Armada and Econpile.

-5

0

5

10

15

May-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Ju

l-16

Aug

-16

Sep

-16

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Feb

-17

Mar-

17

Apr-

17

Growth YoY

2017 2018

6

Page 7: Wednesday, 7 June 2017 - jrj.com.cnpg.jrj.com.cn/acc/Res/CN_RES/INVEST/2017/6/7/be6... · 6/7/2017  · Wednesday, 7 June 2017 Beauty Community (Initiating coverage with Underperform)

Please refer to page 12 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

MALAYSIA

IJM MK Neutral

Price (at 09:21, 05 Jun 2017 GMT) RM3.53

Valuation RM 3.26-3.85 - Sum of Parts

12-month target RM 3.55

Upside/Downside % +0.6

12-month TSR % +2.7

Volatility Index Low

GICS sector Capital Goods

Market cap RMm 12,772

Market cap US$m 2,936

30-day avg turnover US$m 3.6

Foreign ownership % 29.4

Number shares on issue m 3,618

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Mar 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue m 6,065.9 6,619.6 7,259.9 7,155.1 EBITDA m 1,251.0 1,333.8 1,516.8 1,548.3 EBITDA growth % 8.2 6.6 13.7 2.1 EBIT m 950.5 1,027.5 1,193.4 1,212.0 EBIT growth % 7.1 8.1 16.1 1.6 Reported profit m 653.8 620.4 790.1 757.6 Adjusted profit m 639.1 620.4 790.1 757.6 EPS rep sen 18.2 17.2 21.9 21.0 EPS rep growth % -41.8 -5.5 27.4 -4.1

EPS adj sen 17.8 17.2 21.9 21.0 EPS adj growth % -19.0 -3.3 27.4 -4.1 PER rep x 19.4 20.6 16.1 16.8 PER adj x 19.9 20.6 16.1 16.8 Total DPS sen 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Total div yield % 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 ROA % 4.7 4.8 5.3 5.2

ROE % 6.9 6.4 7.8 7.1 EV/EBITDA x 12.4 12.4 10.4 10.6 Net debt/equity % 35.3 32.1 29.5 27.8 P/BV x 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2

IJM MK rel KLCI performance, & rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2017

(all figures in MYR unless noted)

Analyst(s) Aiman Mohamad +60 3 2059 8986 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Capital Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.

IJM Corporation As good as it gets Event

FY17 has proven to be one of the best years for IJM Corporation (IJM) after it

managed to secure close to RM3bn in new orders and ended the FY with

record revenue. However, despite the order wins, the change in share price

was only -0.8% from the start to the end of FY17. We believe the subdued

impact of order wins on its share price is due to the conglomerate discount

imposed by investors on IJM.

At home, the landscape is changing –we saw more small/mid-cap contractors

emerging as the winners of mega government infra contracts. Furthermore,

the government has now turned to Chinese construction giants and appointed

them as the turnkey contractors for the mega projects in Malaysia – putting all

local contractors in Malaysia on a level playing field with one another,

regardless of size and track record. Given the current state of play, IJM will be

forced to compete with the small mid cap and private contractors to win new

orders going forward. Against this backdrop, we downgrade IJM to Neutral

and reduce our TP from RM3.87 to RM3.55, a 16x implied PE to FY19E EPS.

Impact

Construction: Past its prime. Technology advancement and access to

financing have enabled small/mid-cap construction companies to adopt new

technologies and enhance their capacities to compete at the same level as

IJM in bidding for new jobs – both infra and real estate construction works.

Unlike Gamuda which has a niche in tunnel works, IJM’s construction

capacities do not differ from its competitors. The only differentiating factor for

IJM would be its track record, which will decay over time as other players

began to adopt new technologies. We assume an orderbook replenishment of

RM1.2bn/1.5bn/1.5bn for FY18-20E, respectively. Over the long-term horizon,

we believe IJM’s construction capacities will be mostly utilised by its in-house

projects from the concession and property divisions.

Property: Yet to turn the corner. IJM Land registered an improvement in

margins in FY17 at a 21.1% PBT level vs. 13.4% in FY16. However, the

margin growth was largely attributable to the land sale in Penang whereby

IJM generated an RM100mn profit. Property sales in FY17 dropped -4% YoY

to RM1.4bn. IJM is looking to emulate the same achievement in FY18E, a

sign that the management is not foreseeing any strong recovery in the

division. Our FY18E sales forecast is RM1.1bn.

Earnings and target price revision

We rolled-forward our estimates and reduce FY18E EPS by -29% to 17.2sen

from 24.1sen. Post earnings adjustments, TP reduced by -8.3% to RM3.55.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: RM3.55 based on a Sum of Parts methodology.

Catalyst: new order wins from ECRL and LRT3 projects

Action and recommendation

In the big cap space, we prefer Gamuda over IJM due to Gamuda’s expertise

in niche construction projects. Downgrade IJM to Neutral.

7

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Please refer to page 3 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

JAPAN

8848 Not Rated

Price (5 June 2017 ) ¥649

TSE Sector Real Estate

Market cap ¥m 173,571

Market cap US$m 1,577.9

Free float % 75

30-day avg turnover US$m 18.1

Foreign ownership % 54

Number shares on issue m 267.4 Note: US$ market cap assumes a ¥110/US$ FX rate. Source: Factset, Toyo Keizai, June 2017

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Mar 17A 18CoE 18TK 19TK

Revenue m 520,488 540,000 540,000 549,000 EBIT m 22,898 23,500 23,500 23,800 EBIT growth % 9.1 2.6 2.6 1.7 Recurring profit m 22,355 22,500 22,500 22,800 Reported profit m 20,401 14,200 14,200 14,500 EPS rep ¥ 76.3 53.1 53.9 55.0 EPS rep growth % 5.0 -30.4 -29.4 2.0 PER rep x 8.5 12.2 12.2 12.0 Total DPS ¥ 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0

Total div yield % 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 ROE % 13.4 8.7 8.7 8.5 Net debt/equity % -44.1 na na na P/BV x 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

8848 rel Topix Performance

Source: FactSet, Toyo Keizai, June 2017 (all figures in JPY unless noted)

Share Price Driver

Thematic

Growth

Value

Event

Source: Macquarie Research, June 2017

Analyst(s) William Montgomery, CFA +81 3 3512 7864 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited

MacVisit: Leopalace21 Orders down, occupancy up Conclusion

Leopalace competes in the rental unit market with Daito Trust (1878 JP, Not

Rated), Sekisui House (1928 JP, ¥1,954, Outperform, TP: ¥2,500) and Daiwa

House Industry (1925 JP, ¥3,703, Outperform, TP: ¥4,200) among others.

General operating conditions remain solid, according to management, with

April and May occupancy up 1.5 percentage points YoY to 90.5%. Orders in

those months trended down low single digits YoY but were in line with

company expectations. In April, Daiwa House rental unit orders were down -

32% (a one-off, according to management), Sekisui House was flat YoY, and

Daito Trust orders were down -14.6% and -13.6% in April and May.

Impact

Occupancy trends: Total occupancy in Leopalace managed units rose to

293,824 for FY ending 3/17, up 6% YoY and reaching an 89.5% occupancy

rate. By industry, occupancy by construction workers was up 9.1% YoY, food

industry workers +3.7%, retail +5.1%, industrial +0.7%, and temp office

workers +13.9%. Tight labour conditions are supporting improved occupancy.

The trend continued to improve in April and May, with occupancy in those

months at 90.5%, up 1.5% YoY. Occupancy of overseas student units (China,

Korea, other Asia) hit a historical high of 16,000 units, up 10% YoY.

Order trends: Leopalace believes recent orders have been negatively

impacted by press reports regarding oversupply concerns and over potentially

misleading contract documentation. The company believes the reports are

exaggerated, identifying extreme examples in regional Japan that do not

reflect general Tokyo area conditions, and that orders should recover. Broadly

speaking, demand for inheritance tax shelter strategies continues to support

new build (around 40%) and repeat customers (around 60% of total).

Changes to inheritance laws in 2015 increased the potential number of

families who pay inheritance tax from 4.4% of deceased individuals to 8%, or

56,000 per year to 103,000 cases. Furthermore, a large aged stock of

apartments built in the 80s—when starts were 840,000/year (versus

427,000/year in 2016)—is being replaced in order to enhance rental yield.

Contracts: Leopalace contracts are for two-year guarantees and pay around

85% of rent to the owner. Daito Trust normally offers 10-year guarantees and

pays around 90% to the owner on average. Daiwa House and Sekisui House

offer a mix of options, but typically guarantee five years, at 90% of rent.

Leopalace on average generates around 6% gross yield for the owner (closer

to 8% in the Tokyo area). Around 50% of Leopalace units are located in the

greater Tokyo Area. Leopalace exclusively offers one-room dormitory-style

units and includes security, lockers, and other services. Competitors offer

mixed family type or one room with kitchen (1LDK).

Shareholder returns: Leopalace targets a 50% payout ratio. Shareholder

return this year includes a buyback of 4.95% of shares outstanding (8b),

cancellation of 1.5% of treasury shares, and a planned Y22 dividend.

Outlook

The stock is trading at 12.2x PER on 3/18E, based on Toyo Keizai estimates.

Forecast dividend yield is 3.3%.

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Leopalace21 Corporation (8848)

Leopalace21 Corporation / TOPIX

8

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Please refer to page 5 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

HONG KONG

698 HK Outperform

Price (at CLOSE#, 06 Jun 2017) HK$2.02

Valuation HK$ 3.00 - PER

12-month target HK$ 3.00

Upside/Downside % +48.5

12-month TSR % +52.8

Volatility Index Medium

GICS sector Technology Hardware & Equipment

Market cap HK$m 12,344

Market cap US$m 1,765

Free float % 58

30-day avg turnover US$m 34.8

Number shares on issue m 6,111

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2016A 2017E 2018E 2019E

Revenue m 7,825 11,159 14,137 17,937 EBITDA m 1,542 2,235 2,857 3,601 EBITDA growth % 37.2 44.9 27.9 26.0

EBIT m 1,271 1,896 2,478 3,178 EBIT growth % 38.1 49.2 30.7 28.3 Reported profit m 1,004 1,567 2,037 2,646

EPS rep ¢ 15.9 25.0 32.5 42.2 EPS rep growth % 34.1 56.6 30.0 29.9 PER rep x 12.7 8.1 6.2 4.8 Total DPS ¢ 3.9 7.5 9.7 12.6 Total div yield % 1.9 3.7 4.8 6.2 ROA % 13.3 16.4 18.2 19.7 ROE % 23.0 30.0 31.4 32.6 EV/EBITDA x 8.3 5.7 4.5 3.6 Net debt/equity % 26.4 31.1 26.6 21.8 P/BV x 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.3

698 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2017

(all figures in HKD unless noted)

Analyst(s) Verena Jeng +852 3922 3766 [email protected] Allen Chang +852 3922 1136 [email protected] Chris Yu +86 21 2412 9024 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Capital Limited

Tongda Buy on strong fundamentals Event

We reiterate our Outperform rating on Tongda given: 1) strong

fundamentals: we expect a 30% EPS Cagr in 2017-19E with margin

expansion given better product mix, and 2) attractive valuation: stock is

currently trading at 8x after being 10% down on Jun 6 (vs. HSI up 0.5%),

which is attractive considering our estimated 30% EPS Cagr and compared

to its peers.

Impact

Strong earnings growth: We expect a 30% EPS Cagr in 2017-19E driven by

metal casings, 3D glass, waterproof components, and automotive decorative

parts. Tongda’s metal casing shipments grew more than double YoY in 2016

and management maintained their positive and consistent guidance on metal

casing shipments of 80m in 2017E, driven by market share gains and rising

metal casing penetration.

Margin expansion: Tongda’s GM expanded from 19% in 2011 to 24% in

2016, and we expect it to continue to grow to 26% in 2019E given better

product mix from growing metal casings and new businesses bearing better

GM as well, such as 3D glass and waterproof components. The company’s

metal casing GM is 28~30% and 3D glass and waterproof components is

25~30%, both higher than the company’s blended gross margin of 24%.

3D glass and automotive decorative parts, rising diversification:

We are positive on the company’s move into these two areas, given the 3D

glass enhances its position in the metal middle frame business and diversifies

its casing portfolio, and the automotive decorative parts lower its

concentration risks in the smartphone market. 3D glass will be in mass

production in 2017E and the automotive decorative parts revenues are guided

to triple in 2017E, driven by a rising decorative parts’ penetration rate in the

China automotive market.

Attractive valuation: The share price was down by 10% on Jun 6 (vs. HSI

up by 0.5%), leading the valuation to 8x our 2017E PE or 6x our 2018E PE.

We see the valuation as attractive considering our estimated 30% EPS Cagr,

and compared to its peers: Everwin (26x), BYDE (15x), FIH (13x), and

Catcher (12x).

Earnings and target price revision

No change.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: HK$3.00 based on a PER method (12x 2017E PE).

Catalyst: 1H17 results

Action and recommendation

Maintain Outperform.

9

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Please refer to page 4 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

JAPAN

6502 JP Neutral

Price (at 13:50, 05 Jun 2017 GMT) ¥256

Valuation ¥ 280 - Price to Book

12-month target ¥ 280

Upside/Downside % +9.5

12-month TSR % +9.5

Volatility Index Very High

GICS sector Capital Goods

Market cap ¥bn 1,083

Market cap US$m 9,736

30-day avg turnover US$m 255.8

Number shares on issue m 4,238

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Mar 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E

Revenue bn 4,870.0 4,975.6 3,957.0 3,829.5 EBIT bn 270.0 355.0 110.0 135.0 EBIT growth % nmf 31.5 -69.0 22.7 Recurring profit bn 240.0 286.2 95.4 130.5

Reported profit bn -950.2 175.0 56.3 83.8 EPS rep ¥ -224.4 41.3 13.3 19.8 EPS rep growth % -106.5 nmf -67.8 48.7 PER rep x nmf 6.2 19.2 12.9 PER adj x 3.5 5.1 19.2 12.9 Total DPS ¥ 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 Total div yield % 0.0 0.0 2.0 3.9 ROA % 6.2 10.3 3.5 5.7 ROE % -189.8 -154.0 13.8 17.5 EV/EBITDA x 3.6 3.0 8.0 7.6 Net debt/equity % nmf -60.5 29.0 4.1 P/BV x nmf 2.9 2.5 2.1

6502 JP vs TOPIX, & rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, June 2017

(all figures in JPY unless noted)

Analyst(s) Damian Thong, CFA +81 3 3512 7877 [email protected]

6 June 2017 Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited

Toshiba Heading for the “Goldilocks Scenario”? Conclusion

Media reports suggest that Western Digital (WD) is willing to accept a 19.9%

stake in Toshiba Memory in a joint bid with the Innovation Network Corp. of

Japan (INCJ) and the Development Bank of Japan. As we last articulated on 1

June, we view this as the likely scenario, though we note this has yet to be

confirmed. Other proposals are likely still in play (the Asahi Shimbun had

suggested just a few hours ago that Broadcom was in the lead with a ¥2.2tr

offer, which we assume to be unlikely, given the prospect of opposition from

WD), and the final outcome may yet be different. We reiterate our Neutral

rating and ¥280 TP; the news would be favourable for Toshiba’s shares.

Impact

The “Goldilocks Scenario”: A joint bid by the INCJ, the DBJ and WD would

be the compromise outcome that satisfies the most stakeholders, in our view.

METI would have more confidence that chipmaking technology will be

retained in Japan, and that leakage to other countries will be minimised.

We also think METI will expect further commitment by Toshiba/WD to

additional capital investment in Japan beyond Fab 6, ie to a future Fab 7.

The banks and the Ministry of Finance would have greater confidence

that the loans to Toshiba will be covered. Interestingly, media reports

suggest that WD would borrow funds from Toshiba’s creditors, Mizuho

Bank and SMBC, to finance their part of the transaction.

Confirmation of the sale of Toshiba Memory would help unlock the bridge

financing needed by Toshiba to cover the Westinghouse-related

obligations to Southern and SCANA.

WD may well be able to secure a right of first refusal with respect to the

eventual exit by the INCJ and DBJ from their stakes – or perhaps other

hidden rights. We expect WD would continue to consider acquisition of

Toshiba Memory by any other consortia to be strategically unsatisfactory.

This deal structure may face fewer obstacles in anti-trust reviews,

compared to one with majority ownership by WD.

The main uncertainty in our mind had been how long WD would fight to stall

the sale through their demands for arbitration (originally aimed at exclusive

negotiating rights and a majority stake) – which we had believed would hold

things up for at least a year. Our view was that it made little sense for WD to

push Toshiba to the brink, since a bankruptcy would likely have curtailed their

rights with respect to the JVs and raised the likelihood of an open sale.

Earnings and target price revision

No change. Our estimates assume successful disposal of Toshiba Memory.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: ¥280 based on a Price to Book methodology.

Catalyst: Finalisation of Toshiba Memory transaction (potentially by end-Jun).

Action and recommendation

We consider Toshiba to be close to fair value assuming a ¥2tr transaction

value for the sale of Toshiba Memory.

10

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Please refer to page 13 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

GLOBAL

Inside

Backing Value and Momentum 2

Analyst(s) Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited Gurvinder Brar +91 97 8055 5902 [email protected] Giuliano De Rossi, PhD +44 20 3037 1997 [email protected] Jakub Kolodziej, CFA +44 20 3037 2016 [email protected] Steve Gao, PhD +44 20 3037 2765 [email protected] Macquarie Securities (Australia) Limited John Conomos, CFA +61 2 8232 5157 [email protected] Jeremy Lamplough +61 2 8232 1060 [email protected] Lachlan Palmer +61 2 8232 0615 [email protected] Zhe Chen, PhD +61 2 8237 9642 [email protected] Fabrice Schloegel, PhD +61 2 8232 7520 [email protected] Macquarie Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd Josiah Rudolph, FRM +27 11 583 2210 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Limited Woei Chan +852 3922 1421 [email protected] Per Gullberg, CFA +852 3922 1478 [email protected] Danny Deng +852 3922 4646 [email protected] Alvin Chao +852 3922 1108 [email protected]

6 June 2017

Global Dynamics Backing Value and Momentum Reviewing style performances

In our Style Outlook 2017 report, we made a case for Value investing on the

back of improving global economic outlook. Tactically Value trade looked

overbought, hence we cautioned investors to wait for a better entry point in 1H

2017. Reviewing YTD style performances, Cyclical Value theme has struggled in

US and Europe whilst being flat in Asia, Australia and South Africa.

Is it a good time to buy Value stocks?

A sustainable equity rally has three phases. In the first phase, equity markets

rally in expectations of changing economic outlook. In the second phase,

analysts upgrade their earnings expectations to reflect market views. In the third

phase, companies deliver on consensus expectations providing further support

to the equity rally. We witnessed the first two phases in 2016 – Rising asset

prices and an upgrade of consensus analyst expectations.

Leading on to the third phase of the rally, the 1Q 17 reporting season recorded a

higher beat-to-miss ratio and CEO confidence as suggested by our proprietary

Conference Call Transcript Sentiment index. Sustainability of CEO confidence

momentum will support Equity markets and Value stocks in 2017.

Is it a good time to buy Value stocks? Seasonality analysis is not supportive as it

shows that summer months favour Quality stocks whilst the Nov – Apr period

favours Value stocks. We would, however, argue that Value and Momentum

correlations are trading closer to longer-term averages and at current valuations,

Value is an attractive trade. Moreover, positive CEO confidence is a marked

shift from earlier years and supports our favourable outlook towards Value.

Diverging US / Europe growth outlook and slowing Commodity prices will drive

down correlations favouring a local approach to Value investing. Value should be

a stronger performer in developed than commodity markets in 2H 2017.

What are the risks to the Value trade?

The US policy execution risks and slowing global growth pose greatest risks to

the Value trade. Our economists expect the long grinding cycle to continue and

global growth to range between 2.5 to 3.0%. On the positives, both the US and

EU consumer (sentiment, wages and unemployment) and private sector are

recovering. On the negatives, they believe that the reflation trade is behind us

and financial repression policies will persist. Low bond yields, they argue,

suggests growth scarcity and will continue to favour bond surrogates.

Backing Price Momentum

Price Momentum has gone through significant rotation but it seems now to have

stabilised. Compared to this time last year, the opportunities for diversification

are much larger: Looking at correlations we see that Momentum is neither anti-

Value nor pro-Value. It isn’t ‘quality’ either. Momentum Crash Risk Indicator

signals a favourable environment whilst this trade is not impacted by seasonality

either. Investors unsure of the factor direction should tilt towards Momentum.

That is, next factor leadership will be picked up by the Momentum factor.

Macquarie Global Quantitative Conference – June 20/21

11

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Please refer to page 11 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

GLOBAL

Inside

About the data 2

Online retail 3

Fashion retailers 4

Classifieds 6

Wallets / e-payments 7

Travel 9

Cab hail 10

Analyst(s) Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) Ltd Alankar Garude, CFA +91 22 6720 4134 [email protected] Suresh Ganapathy, CFA +91 22 6720 4078 [email protected] Macquarie Equities South Africa (Pty) Ltd George Brits +27 11 583 2223 [email protected] Zintle Gantsho +27 11 583 2107 [email protected]

6 June 2017

Internet traffic in India Using internet traffic to navigate the rhetoric The data set in this report is quite simple and designed for a quick scroll of the

mouse.

Main points

Online retail: Amazon’s website traffic has doubled over the last two and a

half years to ~200m per month, while Flipkart’s has declined by ~20% to

~120m per month. Amazon has also drawn level with App installs. Capital

raised in the April funding round is positive, but will not automatically change

Flipkart’s competitive positioning with respect to Amazon. Snapdeal has come

out worst in the rivalry between Flipkart and Amazon (web traffic down 80%

over two and a half years, app installed base down 40% over 18 months), and

it is not clear that Snapdeal’s problems would not outweigh its benefit to

Flipkart in the event of a takeover.

Online fashion retailers: Both Jabong and Myntra are losing a bit of traction.

Flipkart has ambitious targets for both of them. Given Amazon’s increasing

focus on the high-margin fashion segment, it will be interesting to see how it

evolves.

OLX is outpacing Quikr in core horizontal classifieds. Quikr has embarked on

an ambitious programme to acquire bolt-on verticals (property, automotive,

jobs, services), but it still has to bear fruit.

PayTM is the king of Indian wallets, with Freecharge and Mobikwik in distant

second and third positions. Flipkart’s new wallet, PhonePe, has built up a

small following in the six months since launch. Beyond these four wallets,

there is nothing of substance. The UPI wallets seem to be going nowhere.

MakeMyTrip dominates both the premium (MakeMyTrip brand) and budget

(Goibibo brand) end of the market. Android installed bases are decent, and

usage is high by global standards.

Uber is giving Ola a run for its money. On this battleground, Ibibo Ryde has

not made progress.

On balance

Naspers is winning in travel and classifieds, losing in wallets / e-payments, and

the jury is still out, in our view, on just how big a second place will be left for

Flipkart in the wake of Amazon’s determined expansion.

Naspers companies in this report

Naspers companies in this report: Flipkart (online retail), Myntra and Yabong

(fashion retail), OLX (classifieds), PayU and Citrus (wallets / e-payments),

MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, Redbus (travel), Ibibo Ryde (Cab hail).

12

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Macquarie Research

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada

Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be

expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 March 2017

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 47.26% 55.50% 38.46% 45.47% 59.09% 48.21% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.20% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 38.01% 29.31% 42.86% 48.77% 37.88% 36.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.25% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 14.73% 15.19% 18.68% 5.76% 3.03% 15.00% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 8.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company-specific disclosures: Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

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Asia Research Head of Equity Research

Peter Redhead (Global – Head) (852) 3922 4836

Jake Lynch (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 3583

David Gibson (Japan – Head) (813) 3512 7880

Conrad Werner (ASEAN – Head) (65) 6601 0182

Automobiles/Auto Parts

Janet Lewis (China, Japan) (813) 3512 7856

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Financials

Scott Russell (Asia) (852) 3922 3567

Dexter Hsu (China, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530

Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078

Sameer Bhise (India) (9122) 6720 4099

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Ken Ang (Singapore) (65) 6601 0836

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Conglomerates

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Consumer and Gaming

Linda Huang (Asia, China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068

Zibo Chen (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1130

Terence Chang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3581

Sunny Chow (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3768

Satsuki Kawasaki (Japan) (813) 3512 7870

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

KJ Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9935

Stella Li (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7514

Amit Sinha (India) (9122) 6720 4085

Fransisca Widjaja (65) 6601 0847 (Indonesia, Singapore)

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Chalinee Congmuang (Thailand) (662) 694 7993

Emerging Leaders

Jake Lynch (Asia) (852) 3922 3583

Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265

Timothy Lam (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1086

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Marcus Yang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7532

Conrad Werner (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0182

Industrials

Janet Lewis (Asia) (813) 3512 7856

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Kunio Sakaida (Japan) (813) 3512 7873

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Benson Pan (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7527

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Justin Chiam (Singapore) (65) 6601 0560

Internet, Media and Software

Wendy Huang (Asia, China) (852) 3922 3378

David Gibson (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7880

Hillman Chan (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3716

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Aditya Suresh (Asia, China, India) (852) 3922 1265

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Isaac Chow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6720 4086

Wei Li (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 5494

Property

Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Raymond Liu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3629

Wilson Ho (China) (852) 3922 3248

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

Aiman Mohamad (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8986

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Resources / Metals and Mining

Polina Diyachkina (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Coria Chow (China) (852) 3922 1181

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Sumangal Nevatia (India) (9122) 6720 4093

Technology

Damian Thong (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7877

George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854

Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641

Allen Chang (Greater China) (852) 3922 1136

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7512

Patrick Liao (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7515

Louis Cheng (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7526

Kaylin Tsai (Greater China) (8862) 2734 7523

Telecoms

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Prem Jearajasingam (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8989

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Transport & Infrastructure

Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Azita Nazrene (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8980

Utilities & Renewables

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Candice Chen (China) (8621) 2412 9087

Alan Hon (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3589

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Commodities

Colin Hamilton (Global) (44 20) 3037 4061

Ian Roper (65) 6601 0698

Jim Lennon (44 20) 3037 4271

Lynn Zhao (8621) 2412 9035

Matthew Turner (44 20) 3037 4340

Economics

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Global) (813) 3512 7850

Larry Hu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3778

Quantitative / CPG

Gurvinder Brar (Global) (44 20) 3037 4036

Woei Chan (Asia) (852) 3922 1421

Danny Deng (Asia) (852) 3922 4646

Per Gullberg (Asia) (852) 3922 1478

Strategy/Country

Viktor Shvets (Asia, Global) (852) 3922 3883

Chetan Seth (Asia) (852) 3922 4769

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Jayden Vantarakis (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8310

Anand Pathmakanthan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8833

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarieresearch.com/ideas/ Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email [email protected] for access

Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales

Miki Edelman (Global) (1 212) 231 6121

Jeff Evans (Boston) (1 617) 598 2508

Jeffrey Shiu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061

Sandeep Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4101

Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41 22) 818 7712

Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486

Nick Cant (Japan) (65) 6601 0210

John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988

Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861

Regional Heads of Sales cont’d

Paul Colaco (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5003

Amelia Mehta (Singapore) (65) 6601 0211

Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601

Ben Musgrave (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4882

Christina Lee (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4873

Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002

Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555

Sales Trading cont’d

Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Justin Morrison (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Daniel Clarke (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7580

Brendan Rake (Thailand) (662) 694 7707

Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44 20) 3037 4905

15

This publication was disseminated on 06 June 2017 at 17:49 UTC.