Below is the newest edition of the Region One Climate Change Science Update. FWS employees can also find it and past issues on the Climate Change Sharepoint site.

Pacific Region Climate Change Science UpdateDecember, 2103 Issue

A monthly e-newsletter aimed at helping you stay connected to climate change science that is integral to our conservation work. Do you have a new published article you would like to share? Please send it our way. And many thanks to those who have provided material for this edition!

David PatteClimate Change Coordinator (Senior Advisor on Ecosystem Change)US Fish and Wildlife Service, Pacific Region, Portland, Oregon(503) 231-6210

Quick Links (Abstracts and Weblinks are Below)

Learning Opportunities- Upcoming Webinars and Meetings

North Pacific LCC Funding Opportunity

What are the Effects of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest?

National Research Council Issues Report on Abrupt Changes

EPA Issues draft National & Regional Climate Change Adaptation Implementation Plans

Tribal and Indigenous People

Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United StatesNOAA Tribal Consultation Handbook

Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response

November 2013 issue of the Ecological Society of America’s journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment <http://www.esajournals.org/toc/fron/11/9> is devoted to an assessment of climate change effects on ecosystems, and the consequences for people.How does climate change cause extinction? Will climate change promote future invasions?

Aquatic Resources and Ecosystems/Water Resources/Hydrology Bull Trout Suitable Habitat in a Changing World * !the video! * Effects of Climate Change on Oregon Coast Coho Salmon: Habitat and Life-Cycle InteractionsEvaluating Effects of Forest Harvest and Climate Change on Cutthroat Trout Climate-Aquatics Blog #51: Part 10, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Extinction; #50: Part 9, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Evolutionary responses

Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification/Sea Level RiseOcean Acidification Summary for Policymakers – Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World Technical Report Summarizes Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Oceans, Marine ResourcesThe impact of temperature on marine phytoplankton resource allocation and metabolism

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidificationEPA's Climate Ready Estuaries Program Releases Draft Workbook on Developing Climate Change Adaptation Plans and Seeks Public Comment

New Study About Public Opinion on Climate Change, Mapped out State by State

Reducing Greenhouse Gas EmissionsUnderstanding the recent United Nations Climate Conference in Warsaw Opinion: Climate Crisis: Who Will Act? Global Carbon Budget 2013 has now been published (includes new Global Atlas)Business Support for a Coordinated Approach to Climate Policy The role of short-lived climate pollutants in meeting temperature goals

Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/NewsGlobal warming in the period since 1997 may be far greater than previously reportedThe Lingering Clouds: Why Pollution Results in Larger Storm Clouds, Colder Days, Warmer NightsCrop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world

DOI Climate Science Annual Report

Climate and Weather Reports and Services (Multiple Entries)

List Servers and FWS Tools (Multiple Entries)

___________________________________________________________Learning Opportunities- Upcoming Webinars and Meetings

Dec 5, 11:00-12:00 pm (Pacific Time) Science in support of large ecosystem recovery: perspectives from California's Delta and Puget Sound NWFSC, OneNOAA Science Seminars; (Click here for information and to add to Google Calendar) Trouble with the seminar information? try an alternate view

Dec 9-13, American Geophysical Union’s 46th annual Fall Meeting, San Francisco. Includes numerous presentations and webcasts (Fall Meeting Virtual Options) on climate science, policy and communications. More info

Dec 9-10, Reno, NV. The Great Basin Consortium Conference: A Landscape Under Fire See: http://environment.unr.edu/consortium/conference3.html

Dec 10, 10-11am (Alaska Time) Climate Scenarios and Vulnerabilities in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands, OneNOAA Science Seminars (Click the following link for more info and to Add to Google Calendar) Trouble with the seminar information? try an alternate view

Dec 12, 10-11am (Pacific Time) Assessing Habitat and Community Sensitivity to Climate Change Impacts OneNOAA Science Seminars (Click the following link for more info and to Add to Google Calendar) Trouble with the seminar information? try an alternate view

Jan-March, 2014, “Decision Analysis for Climate Change” NCTC class explores climate change in the context of decision analysis. This 8-week online course starts the week of January 20th, 2014 and continues through March 12, 2014 and highlights principles from Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate (2009) National Research Council

Report. During this time, you will work in a team on actual decision problems building expertise in climate change impacts and decision analysis. Participants will also utilize videos that show techniques in structured decision making, adaptive management, climate change. To register for this course, go to DOI Learn at https://www.doi.gov/doilearn/index/cfm

February 2014 - June 2014, Climate Academy: This 5 month online course is designed to cover the fundamentals of climate science, provide tools and resources for climate adaptation, and increase climate literacy and communication. Click here for more information.

April 22-24, 2014, rescheduled Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment class in Jackson, WY. This course is designed to guide conservation and resource management practitioners in two essential elements in the design of climate adaptation plans: (1) identifying which species or habitats are likely to be most strongly affected by projected changes; and (2) understanding why these resources are likely to be vulnerable. Vulnerability Assessments are a critical tool in undertaking any climate change planning or implementation. We will use regionally specific examples tailored to participants. Learn more and register here.

NOAA Hosts Monthly Webinar Series on Climate Information for Managing Risks in Water ResourcesWorking with collaborators such as the U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System, Water Research Foundation, Water Environment Federation, Water Environment Research Foundation, and American Water Works Association, the Sectoral Applications Research Program in NOAA's Climate Program Office is hosting a series of webinars the third Thursday of every month. For a listing of webinars, visit this site.

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North Pacific LCC Funding OpportunityTo further develop, coordinate, and disseminate science to inform landscape level conservation and sustainable resource management in the face of a changing climate and related stressors, the NP LCC just released a Request for Pre-Proposals (Submit by: December 19, 2013). Projects should seek to advance 3 categories of actions (Click here for more information):

Informing management decisions at local regional or scales based on information syntheses at landscape scales

Incorporating climate change information into habitat conservation, restoration, adaptation, or enhancement actions.

Assist decision makers with incorporating climate change information into their planning efforts and implementing adaptation actions.

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What are the Effects of Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest? Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities: This report, provided as technical input to the Third National Climate Assessment report, assesses the current state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the Pacific Northwest, including projected impacts on: PNW climate; Hydrology and water supply; Coasts and oceans; Forest ecosystems; Agriculture; Human health, and Northwest Tribes. The 271-page report, which draws on the expertise of dozens of scientists and subject-matter experts within the region, was

edited by Meghan Dalton and Phil Mote (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute) and Amy Snover (Univ. WA Climate Impacts Group).

The 4th Annual Pacific Northwest Climate Conference drew about 320 researchers and practitioners to Portland in September. Videos of many of the talks have been posted and linked to the agenda (presentations with videos are underlined/hotlinked).

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National Research Council Issues Publication on Abrupt ImpactsAbrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises: This report summarizes the state of our knowledge about potential abrupt changes and abrupt climate impacts and categorizes changes that are already occurring, have a high probability of occurrence, or are unlikely to occur. Because of the substantial risks to society and nature posed by abrupt changes, this report recommends the development of an Abrupt Change Early Warning System that would allow for the prediction and possible mitigation of such changes before their societal impacts are severe. Identifying key vulnerabilities can help guide efforts to increase resiliency and avoid large damages from abrupt change in the climate system, or in abrupt impacts of gradual changes in the climate system, and facilitate more informed decisions on the proper balance between mitigation and adaptation. Although there is still much to learn about abrupt climate change and abrupt climate impacts, to willfully ignore the threat of abrupt change could lead to more costs, loss of life, suffering, and environmental degradation. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change makes the case that the time is here to be serious about the threat of tipping points so as to better anticipate and prepare ourselves for the inevitable surprises. (National Research Council, 2013)

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EPA Issues draft Adaptation Implementation Plans In early November, 2013, EPA released 17 Program and Regional Adaptation Implementation Plans for a 60 day public comment period. The public is invited to review and provide comment on the draft Implementation Plans through the public docket at www.regulations.gov (Docket Number EPA-HQ-OA-2013-0568). If you are providing comments through the public docket, it is important to identify which of the 17 Plans your comments refer to.

These draft Implementation Plans were prepared by EPA's Program and Regional Offices following the February 2013 publication of the Draft Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PDF, 55pp, 767 kb). The 17 plans included here are part of an ongoing effort to address adaptation across the federal government, in response to Executive Order 13514 - "Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance."

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Tribal Climate Change and Indigenous Peoples in the United States: Kathy Lynn, Adjunct Faculty with the Environmental Studies Program at the University of Oregon began teaching this new course, Fall, 2013. Contact Kathy for potential future offerings and/or a list of the journal articles and other material that were used for the class (many of which are freely available online). Kathy is a Tribal Climate Change Project Coordinator, Adjunct Researcher, Environmental Studies Program, at the University of Oregon. Office: 541-346-5777 kathy@uoregon.edu

NOAA Tribal Consultation Handbook: NOAA released a tribal consultation handbook in November, titled NOAA Procedures for Government-to-Government Consultation with Federally Recognized Indian Tribes and Alaska Native Corporations. The handbook is intended to improve coordination with Indian tribal governments and assist NOAA in conducting effective government-to-government consultations. http://www.legislative.noaa.gov/policybriefs/NOAA%20Tribal%20consultation%20handbook%20111213.pdf. Federal register notice: http://www.ofr.gov/OFRUpload/OFRData/2013-27415_PI.pdf

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Biodiversity/Species and Ecosystem Response-- Journal Articles & Other Publications

[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 Sharepoint CC Species/Ecosystems Response Library]

November 2013 issue of the Ecological Society of America’s journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment <http://www.esajournals.org/toc/fron/11/9> is devoted to an assessment of climate change effects on ecosystems, and the consequences for people. Major topics of the issue:

Biodiversity: Ecologists have predicted that species will move out of their historic ranges as climate changes and their old territories become inhospitable. This is already occurring. Past predictions that species would seek out historic temperature conditions by moving up latitudes, uphill, or into deeper waters have turned out to be too simple, as species movements have proven to be idiosyncratic. Because some species can move and cope with change more easily than others, relationships between species are changing, sometimes in ways that threaten viability, as interdependent species are separated in time and space.

Ecosystem functionality: Living things have powerful influences on the lands and waters they occupy. As existing ecosystems unravel, we are seeing the chemistry and hydrology of the physical environment change, with further feedback effects on the ecosystem. Ecosystem changes, in turn, feedback to climate.

Ecosystem Services: Impacts on natural systems have direct consequences for crop and seafood production, water quality and availability, storm damage, and fire intensity. Working with rather than against, ecosystems may help society to adapt to changes, like sea-level rise and storm surge, that threaten lives and property.

Combined effects of climate and other pressures: Species will be hard pressed to adapt to rapidly changing physical conditions without room to move. Ecosystems are already stressed by habitat loss and fragmentation, pollution, and natural resource extraction.

Preparation for change: Adaptation efforts may need to think beyond the preservation of current or historic natural communities. Existing relationships between species and the landscapes they inhabit will inevitably change. We may need to consider managing the changing landscapes to maintain biodiversity and the functional attributes of ecosystems, rather than specific species.

How does climate change cause extinction? Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, researchers systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. They find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely.

Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. Very similar patterns are found in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, the authors briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. (Abigail E. Cahill, Matthew E. Aiello-Lammens, M. Caitlin Fisher-Reid, Xia Hua, Caitlin J. Karanewsky, Hae Yeong Ryu, Gena C. Sbeglia, Fabrizio Spagnolo, John B. Waldron, Omar Warsi and John J. Wiens. How does climate change cause extinction? Proc. R. Soc. B 2013 280, 20121890)

Will climate change promote future invasions? Biological invasion is increasingly recognized as one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Using ensemble forecasts from species distribution models to project future suitable areas of the 100 of the world's worst invasive species defined by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, this research shows that both climate and land use changes will likely cause drastic species range shifts. Looking at potential spatial aggregation of invasive species, we identify three future hotspots of invasion in Europe, northeastern North America, and Oceania. The findings also emphasize that some regions could lose a significant number of invasive alien species, creating opportunities for ecosystem restoration. From the list of 100, scenarios of potential range distributions show a consistent shrinking for invasive amphibians and birds, while for aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates distributions are projected to substantially increase in most cases. Given the harmful impacts these invasive species currently have on ecosystems, these species will likely dramatically influence the future of biodiversity. (Bellard, C., Thuiller, W., Leroy, B., Genovesi, P., Bakkenes, M. and Courchamp, F. (2013), Will climate change promote future invasions?. Global Change Biology, 19: 3740–3748. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12344)

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Aquatic Resources and Ecosystems/Water Resources/Hydrology[FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint C.C. Water Resources Library]

Bull Trout Suitable Habitat in a Changing World *!the video!* Illustrates New Methods for Probablistic Accounting of Uncertainty, Seth Wenger, Trout Unlimited

Effects of Climate Change on Oregon Coast Coho Salmon: Habitat and Life-Cycle Interactions: This paper assesses the effects of climate change on sustainability of Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

populations that spawn in the coastal rivers of Oregon. Four distinct habitats are important to different life-history stages of coho salmon: terrestrial forests, freshwater rivers and lakes, estuaries, and the ocean. Each of these habitats is affected by multiple aspects of climate change, resulting in a complex web of pathways influencing sustainability. Regional climate change studies are summarized to predict future climate patterns affecting these habitats, identify the ecological pathways by which these patterns affect coho salmon, and review coho salmon ecology to assess the likely direction and magnitude of population response. Despite substantial uncertainties in specific effects and variations in effects among populations, the preponderance of negative effects throughout the life cycle indicates a significant climate-driven risk to future sustainability of these populations. It is recommended that management policies for all four habitats focus on maximizing resilience to the effects of climate change as it interacts with other natural and anthropogenic changes. (Thomas C. Wainwright and Laurie A. Weitkamp, Effects of Climate Change on Oregon Coast Coho Salmon: Habitat and Life-Cycle Interactions, Northwest Science 87(3):219-242. 2013, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.3955/046.087.0305)

Evaluating Effects of Forest Harvest and Climate Change on Cutthroat Trout: USGS-advised PhD student Brooke Penaluna examined how contemporary forest harvest and climate change may affect trout populations in the Oregon Coast Range. Trout responses were highly variable, suggesting that some populations of trout may be more vulnerable than others to forest harvest, climate change, or their combined effects. [FullText] Contact: Jason Dunham, 541-750-0990, jdunham@usgs.gov

Climate-Aquatics Blog #51: Part 10, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Extinction; #50: Part 9, Mechanisms of change in fish populations: Evolutionary responses (Dan Isaak, USFS RMRS)

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Coastal/Marine Ecosystems/Ocean Acidification [FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint CC Coastal Library]

Ocean Acidification Summary for Policymakers – Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World Ocean acidification research is growing rapidly. The Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World (Monterey, California, September 2012) convened 540 experts from 37 countries to discuss the results of research into ocean acidification, its impacts on ecosystems, socio-economic consequences and implications for policy. More than twice as many scientists participated in the Monterey symposium compared to the previous symposium four years earlier. A summary of the state of knowledge on ocean acidification based on the latest research presented at the symposium and beyond was published on Nov 14 and is available online. (IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013). Ocean Acidification Summary for Policymakers – Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Stockholm, Sweden) Some of the key points that keep us up at night:

The ocean continues to acidify at an unprecedented rate in Earth’s history. Latest research indicates the rate of change may be faster than at any time in the last 300 million years. As ocean acidity increases, its capacity to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere decreases. This decreases the ocean’s role in moderating climate change. Within decades, large parts of the polar oceans will become corrosive to the unprotected shells of calcareous marine organisms. Changes in carbonate chemistry of the tropical ocean may hamper or prevent coral reef growth within decades. The far-reaching effects of ocean acidification are predicted to impact food webs, biodiversity, aquaculture and hence societies.

Technical Report Summarizes Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Oceans, Marine Resources: According to a technical report prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment, the nation's valuable ocean ecosystems and marine resources are already being affected by a changing climate. These impacts are expected to increase in the coming years, putting marine resources, and the people and economies that depend on them, at high risk in a changing world. Experts from NOAA and other federal, academic, and nongovernmental organizations collaborated on "Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate"- a comprehensive look at our current understanding of the effects of climate change on the oceans and marine ecosystems under U.S. jurisdiction. The report synthesizes information on projected climate-driven changes in U.S. ocean ecosystems over the next 25 to 100 years and concludes that marine ecosystems likely will continue to be affected, in most cases negatively, by anthropogenic-driven climate change and rising levels of atmospheric CO2. To view the report, click here (opens pdf file).

The impact of temperature on marine phytoplankton resource allocation and metabolism: The effect of temperature on marine phytoplankton growth strategies, metabolism and composition is studied using a range of techniques. This approach indicates that temperature plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in resource allocation and marine phytoplankton elemental ratios, with implications for biogeochemical cycling. (Toseland et al, Nature Climate Change 3, 979–984 (2013)

doi: 10.1038/nclimate1989)

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification: Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. This research shows how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. Researchers apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). The models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. Ocean acidification is found to be less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. This approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate. (Couce, E., Ridgwell, A. and Hendy, E. J. (2013), Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification. Global Change Biology, 19: 3592–3606. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12335)

EPA's Climate Ready Estuaries Program Releases Draft Workbook on Developing Climate Change Adaptation Plans and Seeks Public Comment: EPA has released a draft workbook for environmental professionals and city managers to help identify and manage risks associated with climate change, and is seeking comments from the public on the draft. The document, "Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans," provides a systematic process for environmental

professionals and city managers to use in determining important climate risks that should be addressed, along with approaches for building local capacity to understand and manage these risks to protect future generations. The workbook was produced by EPA's Climate Ready Estuaries program, which works with 28 National Estuary Programs and the coastal management community to assess climate change vulnerabilities, develop and implement adaptation strategies, and engage and educate stakeholders. To review the draft workbook, visit: http://water.epa.gov/type/oceb/cre/news.cfm. Written comments must be received by November 22, 2013 and should be directed to crehelp@epa.gov

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Climate Change Journal Articles/Publications/News[For FWS Employees- Click here for the entire FWS R1 SharePoint Climate Change Library]

Global warming in the period since 1997 may be far greater than previously reported: (summary from reportingclimatescience.com) “A lack of Arctic temperature readings in the HadCRUT4 data, compiled jointly by the UK Meteorological Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in the UK, means that the global warming in the period since 1997 may be as much as two and a half times greater than the current HadCRUT data implies, according to the research.

Furthermore, the analysis highlights potential flaws in temperature records maintained by US space agency NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) which may also be underestimating the global warming trend due to the way they treat sea surface temperatures. If correct, this research has serious implications for the rate of observed global warming and also for the significance of the so called pause in global warming that has been observed since the late 1990s.” (The research is reported in a paper that is entitled “Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends” by Kevin Cowtan of the University of York and Robert Way of the University of Ottawa, Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc, accepted manuscript online, Nov 12, DOI: 10.1002/qj.2297)

The Lingering Clouds: Why Pollution Results in Larger Storm Clouds, Colder Days, Warmer Nights(Science Daily story.) Citation: J. Fan, L. R. Leung, D. Rosenfeld, Q. Chen, Z. Li, J. Zhang, H. Yan. Microphysical effects determine macrophysical response for aerosol impacts on deep convective clouds. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2013; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1316830110

Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world: The extent to which crop pests and pathogens have altered their latitudinal ranges in response to climate change remains largely unknown. Now observations of hundreds of pests and pathogens reveal an average poleward shift of 2.7±0.8 km yr−1 since 1960, supporting the hypothesis of climate-driven pest movement. (Bebber et al., Nature Climate Change 3,

985–988

(2013)

doi:10.1038/nclimate1990)

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Communications/Public OpinionNew Study About Public Opinion on Climate Change, Mapped out State by State (summary from the Earth to Sky Interagency Partnership) Stanford University Professor Jon Krosnick* released new state-level

polling data that shows how Americans in different states view the issue of climate change and specific policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions. This information was presented to the Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change** in early November. What’s really cool about this is the interactive maps you can use to gain understanding of the publics’ views on climate change, state by state. You can click on the map or the list to download a fact sheet on the climate polling data for each state. To view several maps of the United States that display Professor Krosnick's key findings, visit this page. Here’s the link to the presentation by Dr. Krosnick, which includes an interesting discussion with a few members of the Task Force (it’s about 45 min. long): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nflOfnffMMY

*Professor Krosnick is the Frederic O. Glover Professor in Humanities and Social Sciences at Stanford University and a Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. For more information about Professor Krosnick’s work, visit http://climatepublicopinion.stanford.edu .

**The Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change, founded in January 2013, focuses on drawing congressional and public attention to climate change and developing effective policy responses to this urgent challenge. The current co-chairs are Rep. Henry A. Waxman, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, Rep. Bobby L. Rush, Sen. Ben Cardin, Rep. Earl Blumenauer, and Sen. Ed Markey.

Meanwhile,

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Reducing Greenhouse GasesUnderstanding the recent United Nations Climate Conference in Warsaw : the conference took further steps towards a potential universal climate agreement targeted for 2015.

Opinion: Climate Crisis: Who Will Act? By Kofi Annan, secretary general of the United Nations from 1997 to 2006

Global Carbon Budget 2013 has now been published (includes new Global Atlas): http://www.globalcarbonproject.org Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement

production increased by 2.1% in 2012, with a total of 9.7±0.5 GtC (billion tonnes of carbon) emitted to the atmosphere, 58% above 1990 emissions (the Kyoto Protocol reference year). Emissions are projected to increase by a further 2.1% in 2013. In 2012, the ocean and land carbon sinks respectively removed 28% and 23% of total (fossil fuel and land use change) CO2. The land sink in 2012 was much less than in 2011, a year of a strong La Niña weather pattern... Read more

In 2012, global CO2 emissions were dominated by emission from China (27%), the USA (14%), the EU (28 member states; 10%) and India (6%).

Growth rates of these countries from 2011 to 2012 were 5.9% for China, −3.7% for the USA, −1.3% for the EU28, and 7.7% for India.

The per-capita CO2 emissions in 2012 were 1.4 tC per person, per year for the globe [4.4 for the USA, 1.9 for the EU, 1.9 for China, and 0.5 for India].

Business Support for a Coordinated Approach to Climate Policy: the Climate Declaration Over 700 companies have signed the Climate Declaration, in support of a national strategy to tackle climate change. This group is urging policymakers to take action now on climate, in part because of the potential for economic gain.

The role of short-lived climate pollutants in meeting temperature goals: (Summary from Science Shot ) Some scientists have proposed drastic cuts in the emissions of soot, methane, and other strong but short-lived greenhouse gases as a way to tackle global warming in the short term. But such approaches won’t lessen the long-term rate of climate change, a new study confirms. At current emission rates, methane and soot (from industrial activity as well as from vehicles, image) spewed into the atmosphere between 2010 and 2020 will increase the eventual peak in global average temperature by only a few hundredths of a degree, the analysis suggests. But emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases during the same 10-year period will eventually boost peak warming about 10 times that amount, the researchers report online today in Nature Climate Change. The difference, the researchers explain, is due to disparities in the atmospheric lifetimes of these planet-warmers: Although methane and soot exert much stronger greenhouse gas effects than carbon dioxide does, they persist in the atmosphere, on average, only 12 years and a few weeks, respectively; CO2, on the other hand, sticks around for centuries. While trimming emissions of methane and soot can indeed delay warming in the short term, those measures—whether they’re taken almost immediately or implemented a couple of decades from now—will be largely irrelevant for the global climate if emissions of carbon dioxide continue unabated. (Bowerman et al., Nature Climate Change, published online Nov 21, 2013, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2034

)

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Climate and Weather Reports and ServicesResearch Feature: Simulated Changes in Northwest U.S. Climate in Response to Amazon Deforestation Numerical models have long predicted that the deforestation of the Amazon would lead to large regional changes in precipitation and temperature, but the extratropical effects of deforestation have been a matter of controversy. This paper investigates the simulated impacts of deforestation on the northwest United States December–February climate. The simulations show that Amazon deforestation results in 10%–20% precipitation reductions for the coastal northwest United States and the Sierra Nevada. Snowpack in the Sierra Nevada experiences declines of up to 50%.... (Medvigy, David, Robert L. Walko, Martin J. Otte, Roni Avissar, 2013: Simulated Changes in Northwest U.S. Climate in Response to Amazon Deforestation. J. Climate, 26, 9115–9136. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00775.1 )

The average summer over the last century in the Eastern Canadian Arctic has exceeded the same such average in any previous over the last 44,000 years, according to a University of Colorado at Boulder press release.

The Office of the Washington State Climatologist issues a monthly newsletter that summarizes the WA climate for the previous month, includes a precipitation and temperature outlook, and also includes a brief summary of an interesting aspect of the weather or climate of WA, among a few other sections: See www.climate.washington.edu/newsletter for copies and to join the listserv.

PNW Climate Outlook: This quarterly report from the Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium (CIRC) provides a seasonal wrap up of relevant regional issues along with an outlook for the coming season in Idaho, Oregon, Washington and Western Montana. To subscribe send an email to John Stevenson.

Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard: this website provides up to date climate and weather data and forecasts/outlooks for the Great Basin including temperature, precipitation, drought, snowpack and hydrologic information. (Some of the information includes the entire western U.S.) The Dashboard is a joint effort amongst the Western Regional Climate Center, California and Nevada Applications Program, the USDA Farm Service Agency and the Great Basin LCC.

NOAA Climate Connection E-Newsletter: Free monthly e-newsletter designed to increase climate literacy and communication capacity for NOAA and its partners. Subscription requests can be sent to NOAAClimateConnection@noaa.gov. Click here to view the June 2013 NOAA Climate Connection e-newsletter.

NOAA’s State of the Climate Monthly Update

NOAA Monthly Drought Outlook: The monthly drought outlook complements the weekly drought condition updates via the U.S. Drought Monitor. See this site.

NOAA Climate Portal: http://www.climate.gov/ National Snow and Ice Data Center: http://nsidc.org

The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center Annual Report for 2012

____________________________________________________________DOI Climate Science

Annual Report: The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) announced the inaugural edition of the NCCWSC and the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) annual report in November. It is available through the USGS Publications Warehouse at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1387/. The FY 12 annual report provides a summary of the people and science leading the NCCWSC and DOI CSCs.

____________________________________________________________List Servers

Climate CIRCulator (Oregon Climate Change Research Institute) Climate Impacts Group (Univ. Washington) EPA Climate Change and Water E-Newsletter LCC list servers (see your LCC’s website) OneNOAA Science Webinars PNW Tribal Climate Change Network: send email to kathy@uoregon.edu NCTC Climate Change List server (upcoming webinars and courses): send email danielle_larock@fws.gov US Forest Service Fish & Wildlife Research Updates

FWS Resources and Tools

FWS Pacific Region employees can access journal articles and publications archived at the Region’s Climate Change Sharepoint site (links below). The Region's Climate Change Science Synthesis document uses these new findings. (The blog is used to highlight changes made to the document.) > Home Page> Read this report in Word/Find previous reports> Document library (journal articles, reports, etc., updated weekly)

> Best available climate change science-- R1 synthesis (updated weekly)> Blog (provides updates on new journal articles, R1 examples on use of climate science in decision making, etc.)> Use of Climate science: Regional examples

FWS Climate Change Response: How do partnership efforts such as Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy fit into the Service's overall response to accelerating climate change? How is our agency reducing its carbon footprint? What is our agency doing now to reduce the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife and plants? Learn more

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Natural systems and landscapes are impacted by increasing land use pressures and widespread resource threats amplified by a rapidly changing climate. These changes are occurring at an unprecedented pace and scale. By leveraging resources and strategically targeting science to inform conservation decisions and actions, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of partnerships working in unison to ensure the sustainability of America’s land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources. Learn more

National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy: The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy will provide a unified approach—reflecting shared principles and science-based practices—for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants, habitats and associated ecological processes across geographic scales. Learn more

FWS Climate Change Information Toolkit: A key part of the Service's climate change strategy is to inform FWS staff about the impacts of accelerating climate change and to engage partners and others in seeking collaborative solutions. Through shared knowledge and communication, we can work together to reduce the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats. Here are some resources that can help.

Climate Change, Wildlife, and Wildlands Toolkit: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, in partnership with the National Park Service and with input from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, developed a kit for use when talking with the public about how climate change is affecting our nation's wildlife and public lands. Learn more .

Safeguarding Wildlife from Climate Change Web Conference Series: The FWS and National Wildlife Federation have developed a series of web conferences to increase communication and transfer of technical information between conservation professionals regarding the growing challenges of climate change. Learn more

(FWS employees only) NCTC Climate Change Resource Library: The NCTC Climate Change Resource Library provides selected citations to peer-reviewed journal articles, documents, books, theses, presentations, and Websites on the effect of climate change on North American fish, wildlife and habitats. FWS employees can access the library here

For more information on how the Service is working with others to conserve the nature of America in a changing climate, visit http://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/