€¦ · Web viewTasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Technical Report Series 7, 74 pp. which primarily dealt with inshore areas (less than 20 m). Spatial Analysis routines in ArcMap

Final report for CERF project ‘Ecosystem model analysis to address fisheries management issues in south eastern

Australia and the implications of climate change’

R. Watson, C. Buxton, S. Frusher, A. Smith and R. Gales

Final report for CERF project ‘Ecosystem model analysis to address fisheries management issues in south eastern Australia and the implications of climate change’

R. Watson1, C. Buxton2, S. Frusher2, A. Smith3 and R. Gales4

1. Ecomarres, PO Box 1086, Sandy Bay Tasmania 70062. Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania Private Bag 49, Hobart Tasmania 7001.3. CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research, Castray Esplanade, Hobart Tasmania 7000.4. Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, GPO Box 44, Hobart Tasmania 7001.

© Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts 2011

This work is copyright. Except as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), no part of this publication may be reproduced by any process, electronic or otherwise, without the specific written permission of the copyright owners. Neither may information be stored electronically in any form whatsoever without such permission.

ISBN ??

Preferred way to cite:

Watson R, Buxton C, Frusher S, Smith A and Gales R (2011) Final report for CERF project ‘Ecosystem model analysis to address fisheries management issues in south eastern Australia and the implications of climate change’. Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, Australia.

DISCLAIMER

The authors do not warrant that the information in this report is free from errors or omissions. The authors do not accept any form of liability, be it contractual, tortious or otherwise, for the contents of this book or for any consequences arising from its use or any reliance placed upon it. The information, opinions and advice contained in this report may not relate to, or be relevant to, a reader's particular circumstances. Opinions expressed by the authors are the individual opinions of those persons and are not necessarily those of the publisher or research provider.

ContentsObjective.....................................................................................................................................................3

Summary of the major activities undertaken by the organisation...............................................................3

An outline of any demonstration/communication activities undertaken..................................................11

The benefits and outcomes of the Activity as a whole..............................................................................12

Degree to which the Activity has effectively achieved its objectives.........................................................12

The appropriateness of the approaches used in the development and implementation of the Activity. .13

Future engagement...................................................................................................................................14

Budget.......................................................................................................................................................15

CERF project report: Ecosystem model analysis and the implications of climate change – SE Australia

Objective

‘The Activity will focus on the development of a coastal ecosystem model using eastern and southern Tasmania as an example. The Activity will bring together expertise from some of the world’s leading marine ecosystem modelling groups to assemble existing datasets across different Institutions, with the aim of developing and adapting ecosystem models for the Australian marine environment.’

Summary of the major activities undertaken by the organisation

Initially the project focused on identifying the available models and datasets that existed to assess their usefulness as inputs for the model. Several meetings with scientists in the Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE), Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute (TAFI) and CSIRO occurred. These meetings identified two existing models of marine ecosystems in waters around Tasmania, and examined their similarities and differences from the proposed model for this project. A framework for the proposed model was developed in relation to the area to be covered and the subdivision of the marine areas. The boundaries of the areas were designed to be consistent with other applications to ensure that data could be easily shared across projects in the different organisations. The model geometry was agreed on (Figure 1) and the data fundamental to the oceanographic and primary production required in the model was finalised in the first phase of the project.

It was decided to cover the entire coastal waters surrounding Tasmania (down to about 300 m), although concentrating on the east coast, to enable as complete a picture as possible to be developed. Different collaborators had different areas of interest. For example, the DPIPWE representatives wanted to include all of Bass Strait because they believed that this area will undergo the most significant changes, especially with regard to marine mammals. Others wanted all commercial fishing areas including the west coast of Tasmania included. No existing model had these elements. Regions within the model were designed to accommodate issues such as the movement of seals in Bass Strait, the bathymetry of the regions as they relate to bioregionalisation, and data recording areas for research surveys and for the fishing industry.

Another fundamental decision related to the functional or biomass groups to be used in the model. Several rounds of meetings and email exchanges involving robust discussion with fisheries scientists at TAFI and CSIRO resulted in the identification of 46 functional or biomass groups, close to the maximum that a viable model allows (Table 1). The selection of functional groups was a compromise between the taxonomic, feeding/life history behaviour of biota, and the commercial groupings in the case of fished species. Care was taken to represent major fished and unfished groups, as well as those of conservation

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interest such as marine mammals and seabirds. Organisms were grouped where they occupied a similar ecological niche but separated where impacts of climate change may be expected to be differentiated.

Finally, a range of habitat and fish survey datasets, as well as fisheries catch and effort data (both commercial and recreational) were brought together to form the basis of the description of the ecosystem at present (in the late 1990s). These were used to quantify the density and distribution of the functional groups in the model, and the removal of biomass by fishers (based on catch statistics).

Habitat information was based on Barrett et al.1 which primarily dealt with inshore areas (less than 20 m). Spatial Analysis routines in ArcMap (ESRI version 9.3.1) were used to extrapolate these results to the entire model area. For temperate reef habitat, a local depth-based attrition rate was used such that most reef habitat was assumed to occur within the shallow inshore areas. Expert opinion from collaborators allowed reef estimates for the deeper depths and other unsurveyed areas of the model.

Biomass estimates for fish and invertebrate species were based primarily on three sources from TAFI research: shelf trawl surveys (January 1993 to January 1995), temperate reef dive surveys (March 2006 to April 2007) and inshore beam trawl surveys (June 1995 to March 1996). Point or transect area biomass estimates were extrapolated to the model area based on Spatial Analysis (ArcMap) using an inverse distance-weighted model. The model biomass estimates of reef associated or shallow-water groups were prorated accordingly. For the marine mammals and birds, biomass estimates were obtained from the scientific literature after consultation with marine mammal specialists from DPIPWE, and calculated in units appropriate to the model.

Once the data had been collated and worked into a suitable format, a static Ecopath model was developed. Such a model describes one representative period of time. The biomass values extracted from survey data, representing average levels within the last decade, were used to parameterise the model. Most groups were constrained to only a portion of the model area because of their habitat or depth range associations. Production to Biomass ratios from similar groups from existing Ecopath models were used to guide estimates of these parameters. Some parameters needed to be estimated by the model to preserve mass balance. The diets of predators were adjusted as the model was balanced, because information on diets from the literature for many groups was mostly qualitative, and thus with its inherent uncertainty, provided room for some adjustment. A proportion of biomass was quantified to come from areas outside the model, to allow for immigration into and emigration out of the model area. The balanced Ecopath model is represented 1 Barrett, N., Sanderson, J.C., Lawler, M., Halley, V., Jordan, A., 2001. Mapping of inshore marine habitats in south-eastern Tasmania for marine protected area planning and marine management.Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Technical Report Series 7, 74 pp.

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diagrammatically in Figure 2, where the biomass groups and the major pathways in the food web are illustrated.

The Ecopath model was further developed into a time dynamic model (EcoSim) for hypothesis testing including simulation of expected climate-change induced differences. For this model the time series of fisheries landings and the effort involved in their capture for the 10 years to 2008 were included. This included data from both commercial and recreational fisheries.

Given the general uncertainty about the environmental changes expected to the marine environment around Tasmania under a range of possible future greenhouse gas abatement scenarios, it was decided to concentrate on changes to primary productivity in algal groups (often considered a first-order impact), and the subsequent impacts on the other functional groups in the modelled system and its fisheries. To ensure that the ranges that have been previously predicted were covered, a range of change from -30% to +30% in primary productivity was simulated over a century from the model’s static values. Unfortunately there is still much uncertainty about what change in primary productivity will be created under various climate change scenarios.

The change in biomass of fish species and fisheries landings under the scenario of increased primary productivity induced by climate change was an increase (usually non-linear) in landings in all cases, although the scale of the increases was not the same. The largest increase was in the arrow squid fishery, with more moderate increases in the flathead and reef-associated species after about a 20% increase in primary productivity. Those with the least response were the coastal demersal and coastal transitory species. On the other hand, when primary productivity was decreased, many fisheries had their landings collapse to zero when production fell by only between 10 and 20% of static levels. For the marine mammals and birds, most showed little response to changes in the range of primary productivity tested, with the exception of one group. The biomasses of little penguins and shearwaters, fur seals and dolphins were relatively static with either and increase or a decrease in primary productivity. The seabird group (shy albatross, gannets, storm petrels and fairy prions) decreased in biomass with decreased productivity, and increased when primary productivity increased (Figure 3).

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Table 1: Functional groups used in the Ecopath model.c

No. Group Name Range Members1 Large phytoplankton all large plankton (diatoms)2 Small phytoplankton all picophytoplankton3 Gelatinous zooplankton all salps (pryosomes), coelentrates4 Large zooplankton all krill (also chaetognaths etc)5 Mesozooplankton all copepods6 Small zooplankton all heterotrophic flagellates7 Soft sediment small benthic carnivores 10% shrimps, small crabs, carnivorous polychaetes

8 Benthic deposit feeders allpolychaetes, some echinoderms incl holothurians (on shelf), infaunal bivalves

9 Deep benthic filter feeders > 100 m depth sponges, corals, crinoids, bivalves, bryozoa10 Shallow filter feeders < 100 m depth oysters, other shallow filter feeders (e.g. corals and sponges), ascidians11 Urchins reef including Centrostephanus12 Reef mesograzers reef amphipods, errant polychaetes,microgastropods13 Benthic grazers fished (Abalone) < 30 m reef blacklip abalone, greenlip abalone14 Herbivorous macrozoobenthos < 100 m depth gastropods (including Turbo)15 Carnivorous macrozoobenthos reef sea stars, dog whelks

16 Carnivorous macrozoobenthos fished < 200 m reefsouthern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii), velvet crabs, giant crabs (Pseudocarcinus gigas)

17 Meiobenthos all 18 Macroalgae reef + drift areas kelp19 Seagrass some reefs seagrass20 Coastal squid fished < 50 m depth calamari (southern calamari Sepioteuthis australis)21 Transitory squid fished all arrow squid (Nototodarus gouldi)22 Octopus fished all Octopus maorum, Octopus pallidus

23Coastal soft sediment microcarnivorous teleost all gobies, pipefish, seahorse

24Coastal demersal reef herbivourous teleost fished reef herring cale, marblefish, luderick

25Coastal small demersal reef planktivore teleost reef

southern hula fish, damselfish, cardinalfish, bullseyes, barber perch, butterfly perch

26 Coastal demersal reef carnivorous teleost reef magpie perch, leatherjacket, long snouted boarfish, purple wrasse, blue

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fished throat wrasse, banded morwong, bastard trumpeter

27Transitory demersal reef carnivorous teleost fished reef + nearby striped trumpeter, jackass morwong

28 Shelf associated carnivorous teleost fished non-reefflounder, flatheads, stargazers, gurnard, latchet, rock cod, dories, whitings

29 Coastal piscivores fished all barracouta, Australian salmon, pike

30Coastal schooling omnivorous pelagic teleosts fished < 50 m depth mullets, sea garfish

31Coastal schooling carnivorous pelagic teleosts fished < 100 m depth blue warehou, silver trevally

32 Oceanic planktivores all sauries, flying fish33 Oceanic piscivores fished all tunas, swordfish, billfish34 Small pelagic planktivorous teleost all sardine, pilchard, herring, sprats, anchovy35 Small pelagics carnivorous teleost fished all redbait, yellowtail scad, jack mackerel, blue mackerel36 Offshore carnivorous teleosts fished > 100 m depth blue-eye trevalla, ling, blue grenadier, hapuka, whiptails, cardinalfish37 Migratory mesopelagics all myctophids, frostfish, lancetfish, hatchetfish38 Shelf associated demersal sharks all gummy shark, draughtboard shark, Port Jackson shark, saw shark, inshore

dog sharks, school shark

39 Offshore demersal sharks > 100 m depthdeepwater dogsharks (Owstons dogfish, golden dogfish, Plunket’s dogfish, etc)

40 Pelagic sharks all bronze whaler, dusky whaler, blue shark, mako, white pointer, 7-gill shark41 Skates and rays all angel shark, stingray, stingaree, fiddler, Tasmanian numbfish, skate42 Dolphins all dolphins: longfin pilot whale Globicephala melaena , killer whale Orcinus

orca, false killer whale Pseudorca crassidens, common dolphin Delphinus delphis, bottlenose dolphin Tursiops truncatus

43 Fur Seal all Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus) and New Zealand fur seal

44 Little penguin, mutton birds alllittle penguin (Eudpyptula minor), short-tailed shearwater (Puffinus tenuirostris)

45 Sea Birds allshy albatross (Thalassarche cauta cauta), gannets, storm petrels, fairy prions

46 Detritus all

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40° S

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148° E144° E

Tasmania

Figure 1: Map showing the modelled area (outlined with line) nearly 137,000 km2, the location of beam trawl samples (open circles), trawl survey samples (crosses) and temperate reef dive survey sites (filled circles) used in biomass estimates of functional groups. The 100 m (faint dashed) and 300 m (bold dashed) depth contours shown.

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LargePhytoplankton

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BenthicCarnivores

Benthic Deposit Feeders

Gelatinous zooplankton

Small invertebrate

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Coastal small demersal reef

planktivore teleosts

Coastal Squid

Transitory Squid

Octopus

Coastal schooling omnivorous

pelagic teleosts

SeahorsesPipefish

Goby

Skates & Rays

Dolphins

Small pelagic planktivorous

teleosts

Offshore demersal sharks

Oceanic planktivores

Coastal demersal reef carnivorous

teleosts

Fur Seal SeabirdsPenguins Shearwater

Coastal schooling carnivorous

pelagic teleosts

Oceanic piscivores

Transitory demersal reef carnivorous

teleosts

Pelagic sharks

MacrozoobethosHerbivores

Shelf associated carnivorous

teleosts

Offshore carnivorous

teleosts

Coastal demersal reef herbaceous

teleosts

Small pelagics carnivorous

teleosts

Small zooplankton

Large zooplankton

Detritus

Shelf associated demersal

sharks

Coastal piscivores

Migratory mesopelagics

SmallPhytoplankton

Mesoplankton

Discards

Urchins Reef Mesograzers

Abalone

Macrozoobenthos Macrozoobenthos Meiobenthos

Macroalgae Seagrass

Figure 2: A simplified diagram of the modelled food web with thick connection lines representing > 40% biomass flows, while thinner lines represent smaller flows. For clarity flows of <10% are not shown. The size of boxes does not represent biomass. Shaded boxed represent fished groups.

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Land

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ings

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Figure 3: Changes in projected fisheries landings and the biomass of groups of special conservation interest in response to changes in climate change induced rates of primary productivity over 100 years.

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An outline of any demonstration/communication activities undertaken

During September 2008 Dr Watson participated in a workshop on ecosystem modelling to address climate change, held at the University of Tasmania, involving scientists from across Australia and overseas. The development and adaptation of models appropriate for predicting and interpreting climate change impacts has become a rapidly expanding area of discussion in Australia. These discussions provided an up-to-date synthesis and review of a broad range of models in the Australian marine environment.

These scientists have developed or were involved in the development of Australian marine ecosystem models. This work culminated in the publication of a paper in the Global Change Biology journal entitled ‘Effects of climate driven primary production change on marine food webs: implications for fisheries and conservation’2. Though the CERF-funded model was not completed at the time of this workshop it was discussed and valuable exchanges occurred.

Similarly Dr Watson has also been part of a team working on global climate change impacts on fisheries which has culminated in another paper published with the Global Change Biology journal. This work is entitled ‘Large-scale redistribution of maximum catch potential in the global ocean under climate change’3.

Both these outcomes demonstrate the importance of collaboration between this CERF project and work at both the national and international level. Importantly, knowledge and skills developed elsewhere were used to add value to the CERF project and confirm that the direction undertaken by the CERF project was on target. We are pleased to report that the work on this project is at the forefront of model developments in climate change.

Dr Watson made a presentation of the model at the CERF meeting in May 2010 in Canberra. The work presented was favourably received by experts in attendance.

A talk was also presented at the Australian Society of Fish Biology conference (the professional organisation for fisheries scientists) in July of 2010, exposing the work to the wider Australian marine science community. The abstract is presented here:

Initial attempts to model the impacts of climate change on global marine resources have indicated the potential for a large-scale redistribution of global catch potential with an average of 30–70% increase in high-latitude regions and a drop of up to 40% in the tropics, with socioeconomic consequences. Meanwhile a CERF-funded collaborative attempt is underway to investigate climate change on the specific marine ecosystems of Tasmania using the Ecopath/Ecosim ecosystem modelling framework. Various

2 Brown, C.J., Fulton, E.A., Hobday, A.J., Matear, R., Possingham, H., Bulman, C., Christnesen, V., Forrest, R., Gehrke, P., Gribble, N., Griffiths, S., Lozano-Montes, H., Martin, J.M., Metcalf, S., Okey, T.A., Watson, R., Richardson, A.J. (2010) Effects of climate driven primary production change on marine foodwebs: implications for fisheries and conservation. Global Change Biology, 16, p. 1194–1212.3 Cheung, W.L., Lam, V.W., Sarmiento, J.L., Kearney, K., Watson, R., Zeller, D., Pauly, D. (2010) Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global Change Biology, 16, p. 24-35.

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scenarios are being investigated including range shifts, increased primary production and forced changes to diets. Impacts on biomass and fisheries landings will be examined.

As the model progressed, meetings were held with the appropriate fisheries managers and marine mammal scientists, both for input into the structure of the model and to update them on progress. Undoubtedly, there will be considerable interest in CERF-funded modelling work and the model it produced for several years to come. The exposure will likely lead to the model being further progressed through Commonwealth and state agencies in collaboration, possibly with the involvement of a post-doctoral student.

The benefits and outcomes of the Activity as a whole

The cooperation and collaboration of scientists, each normally working on their own portion of the Tasmanian marine environment, has enabled the synergies of the combined knowledge of the group and their scientific information to be realised to a degree which has not been achieved before. The amount and variety of data sourced in this project is more than was used in previous models and has enhanced its usefulness for biodiversity conservation and fisheries ecosystem management.

The inclusion of a widely accepted spatial regime, and the carefully chosen functional groups (both commercially fished or otherwise) allows this model to be rapidly taken up and adapted by several agencies whose interests are in conservation of the fisheries and wildlife. CERF has funded the difficult part of the process whereby the ground-work, data-gathering and initial model construction was completed. Moreover, interest in the initial results, and the collaboration involved in analysis and interpretation has forged stronger cooperation between various Commonwealth and state agencies and their marine researchers.

A scientific paper has been written, and Dr Watson is in the process of incorporating comments from all the authors (which span multiple agencies) in readiness for submission to an international ecological modelling journal. This will ensure that the work has been peer reviewed and is available to a wide scientific audience. The model (and the data contained within it) will be available to all via a web service available by Ecopath.org.

Degree to which the Activity has effectively achieved its objectives

The project has successfully achieved, and exceeded, its objectives. A functioning ecosystem model has been produced which models the current ecosystem of the marine environment surrounding the entire coast on Tasmania (not just the eastern coast, as originally promised). Importantly, this model has input from, and is accepted by, a range of top marine scientists concerned with marine life and fisheries spanning Commonwealth and state agencies, as well as university experts. The model was extended to a time dynamic model to incorporate projections of possible scenarios

12


under climate induced changes and the consequences for biota and fisheries. Significant collaborations were established throughout the community working on the Tasmanian marine environment, including TAFI, CSIRO and DPIPWE (including both fisheries managers and marine mammal scientists). As a result, many data sets were brought together in this model, which had not been incorporated into models before.

A significant effort was made to ensure that the functional groups captured by the model and the spatial and temporal scales of the model met the requirements of a broad range of end-users. The amount and variety of data sourced in this project is more than was used in most previous models and has enhance this model’s usefulness for biodiversity conservation and fisheries ecosystem management.

The modelling framework used allows future users to change model assumptions including climate change predictions and reassess what probable impacts on marine life and fisheries will be. It is a dynamic tool.

The appropriateness of the approaches used in the development and implementation of the Activity

Unlike many single agency approaches to modelling a marine system, which tend to be limited in scope and not inclusive of other opinions, agencies and future uses, this project took the much more challenging approach of involving a wide range of scientific input from the planning stage and throughout. This has meant the process itself was valuable in forging greater cooperation between what sometimes seem to be competing groups of experts, but in addition, the model produced has both credibility and function for the wider scientific community. Having a model which has collated a wide range of scientific input and research data makes the process much more valuable. This approach takes an incredible amount of negotiating and therefore proceeds more slowly, but it is worth the cost.

The modelling framework used, Ecopath with Ecosim, is widely used around the world so that experts everywhere can now examine and use the model. Further, the preparation that went into making this model was extensive, so that a spatial version (one where the impacts on specific parts of Tasmanian waters can be tested) can be developed rapidly, as can the transfer of information to other modelling frameworks such as Atlantis. Atlantis is also widely used and was developed at CSIRO.

In short, the preparation allows for the work to be rapidly assimilated by others using a range of other modelling frameworks. The process allows for researchers in Commonwealth and state agencies, and universities to enhance and build upon the work completed. The presentation of results in scientific meetings and its publication in a scientific journal will continue to attract attention and ensure that model results play a role in decision making.

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Future engagement

Outcomes from the project will continue to inform the management of the south eastern Australian region through providing the baseline for understanding the impact of climate change on marine resources. This will include the South East Australian component of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility’s Marine Biodiversity and Resources Network and associated research plan. Outcomes will also assist the recently released Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry’s National Climate Change Action Plan for Fisheries and Aquaculture.

The modelling framework and collaborations established during this project will also provide the basis for continual upgrading of the model as new information becomes available.

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Budget

Financial statement:

Contribution

($)

In-kind ($)

CERF Grant (incl GST) 168,960

University of Tasmania 316,808

CSIRO 112,898

DPIPWE 38,614

TOTAL 168,960 468,320

All funds have been spent and all host institution and partner contributions have met budgeted amounts.

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Documents

€¦ · Web viewTasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Technical Report Series 7, 74 pp. which primarily dealt with inshore areas (less than 20 m). Spatial Analysis routines in ArcMap