· Web viewState of Oregon ANNUAL FORECAST QUALITY REPORT DHS /OHA, Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis July 201 5 Contents Introduction3 Summary6 Aging and People with

State of Oregon

ANNUAL FORECAST QUALITY REPORT

DHS/OHA, Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis

July 2015

DHS/OHA, Office of Forecasting Research and Analysis, July 2015

ContentsIntroduction.................................................................................................................................................3

Summary.....................................................................................................................................................6

Aging and People with Disabilities (APD).....................................................................................................9

Child Welfare (CW)....................................................................................................................................13

Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities (I/DD)..........................................................................................17

Medical Assistance Programs (MAP).........................................................................................................21

Self Sufficiency Programs (SSP)..................................................................................................................27

APPENDICES..............................................................................................................................................31

Appendix A1: Aging and People with Disabilities Programs, Nursing Facility Care................................32

Appendix A2: Aging and People with Disabilities Programs, Community Based Care...........................33

Appendix A3: Aging and People with Disabilities Programs, In-Home Care...........................................34

Appendix B1: Child Welfare Programs, Foster Care...............................................................................35

Appendix B2: Child Welfare Programs, Adoption Assistance................................................................36

Appendix C1: Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities Programs, Case Management..........................37

Appendix C2: Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities Programs, Brokerage (Adult)............................38

Appendix D1: Medical Assistance Programs, ACA Adults......................................................................39

Appendix D2: Medical Assistance Programs, Parent/Caretaker Relative...............................................40

Appendix D3: Medical Assistance Programs, Pregnant Women............................................................41

Appendix D4: Medical Assistance Programs, Children’s Medicaid........................................................42

Appendix D5: Medical Assistance Programs, Children’s Health Insurance Program..............................43

Appendix D6: Medical Assistance Programs, Aid to Blind and Disabled................................................44

Appendix D7: Medical Assistance Programs, Old Age Assistance..........................................................45

Appendix D8: Medical Assistance Programs, Foster/Substitute Care and Adoption Assistance............46

Appendix D9: Medical Assistance Programs, Qualified Medicare Beneficiary.......................................47

Appendix D10: Medical Assistance Programs, Citizen/Alien-Waived Emergent Medical......................48

Appendix E1: Self Sufficiency Programs, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families.............................49

Appendix E2: Self Sufficiency Programs, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.........................50

Appendix F: Resources...........................................................................................................................51

2


Introduction

The Office of Forecasting, Research, and Analysis (OFRA) produces two caseload forecasts each year, one in the spring and one in the fall. The purpose of these forecasts is to estimate the number of clients anticipated to access DHS/OHA services in order to budget accurately, inform program management, and support oversight. This annual report analyzes the quality of the historical forecasts by program and provides information about consistency, trends and areas for improvement. This information should be useful to individuals who use the caseload forecasts and want to know how reliable they have been in the past. It also provides feedback to the forecasters themselves about how accurate they have been and where adjustments may be appropriate.

FORECAST QUALITY MEASURES

This report uses two indicators of forecast quality: statistical bias and accuracy. Other desirable characteristics of forecast quality such as the efficiency with which a forecaster uses available information are harder to assess.

Statistical bias indicates the tendency of a forecast to over- or under-estimate real outcomes. To measure statistical bias, OFRA uses the Mean Percentage Error (MPE) - the arithmetic average of the forecasting errors. A small MPE can be produced by either small errors or errors (even large ones) which are offset by errors in the opposite direction. MPE imperfectly measures the quality of a forecast. However, for budgeting purposes, MPE is probably the best measure of quality since what matters is total spending over time, and savings from one month are frequently used to offset excess costs in another month.

The accuracy of a forecast is the degree to which its values are narrowly dispersed around actual outcomes. To measure accuracy OFRA uses the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) – the average of the forecasts’ errors without regard to arithmetic sign. From a technical perspective, MAPE is usually considered a better measure of quality since it measures errors in all directions.

Both quality measures (MPE and MAPE) are calculated for 14 sequential forecast cycles (Spring 2008 through Fall 2014) for the first 6, 12, and 24 months of each forecast. Theoretically, and in practice, the quality of a forecast diminishes the further out the forecast projects. In an environment of changing policies and economic uncertainty it is hard to produce precise long-term forecasts. To address this challenge, OFRA produces a new forecast twice each year - in spring and in fall. Each forecast produces caseload estimates on a month-by-month basis for the remainder of the current biennium and the full upcoming biennium.

3


PROGRAM SERVICES COVERED BY THIS REPORT

Although OFRA prepares forecasts for seven major program areas and over 50 separate caseload categories, this report focuses only on caseload categories that meet the following criteria:

1. Has more than 5,000 participants or is a major service category;2. Enrollment is not limited by the agency (e.g. programs that have a maximum caseload

capacity or a waiting list to get into the program such as Employment Related Daycare, JOBS, and Vocational Rehabilitation are not included);

3. Has well behaved historical data with a long enough time series to produce reliable forecasts and historical actuals that do not change frequently (e.g., the Mandated Mental Health programs).

Based on the rules listed above, this report analyzes the quality of caseload forecasts for the following programs and caseload categories:

Aging and People with Disabilities (APD)o Nursing Facility Care (NFC)o Community Based Care (CBC)o In-Home Care (IHC)

Child Welfare (CW)o Foster Careo Adoption Assistance

Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities (I/DD)o Case Managemento Brokerage Enrollment (Adult)

Medical Assistance Programs (MAP)o ACA Adultso Parent/Caretaker Relative (PCR)o Pregnant Womeno Children’s Medicaido Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)o Aid to Blind and Disabled (ABAD)o Old Age Assistance (OAA)o Foster/Substitute Care & Adoption Assistance (FSCAA)o Qualified Medicare Beneficiary (QMB)o Citizen/Alien-Waived Emergent Medical (CAWEM)

Self Sufficiency Programs (SSP)o Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)o Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)

4


BACKGROUND

Forecasts are developed using a combination of time-series techniques, input-output deterministic models, and expert consensus. Most forecasts are produced using custom software created by Looking Glass Analytics (LGAN) based on an analytical model developed by Willamette University. The LGAN model is based on the statistical technique of survival probability and the concept that clients start service in a given program by virtue of being a new client or by transitioning from another service. The model simulates the movement of clients or client groups such as families or households in and out of services. There are certain risk factors to the forecasts, such as:

Demographics Economy Policy/Law changes Revisions to historical data Small sample size

Demographic changes have a long-term and relatively predictable influence on caseloads. When the economy is more volatile or economic trends change, forecast inaccuracies generally increase. The most immediate and dramatic effects often come from policy changes that alter the pool of eligible clients or the duration of their program eligibility/participation. Policy/Law changes are incorporated into the numerical forecast only when the new policy or law has been approved and sufficient data exists to confidently quantify the impact. Frequently the impact of these various changes cannot be quantified, in which case they are considered “risks” to the forecast accuracy. Major “risks” are discussed in the forecast publication. Statistical error in forecasts is higher for programs that serve a small number of clients, or are relatively new and don’t have enough historical data on which to base the forecast. In some cases, what appear to be forecast inaccuracies are actually the result of post-forecast revisions to historical data.

How to interpret Box Plots

5

75th PERCENTILE – 75% of data is

below this value

MEDIAN – Half the data is

below this value & half is above

25th

PERCENTILE– 25% of data is

below this value

MINIMUM – Lowest value

MEAN - Average value

(can fall below or above MEDIAN)

MAXIMUM – Highest value


Summary

For most program areas, barring discrete issues such as big policy changes (e.g. HealthyKids reform, ACA reforms such as Medicaid Expansion and K-Plan implementation, etc.), economic disruptions, or data challenges, the quality of the 6-month forecast has increased gradually over time.

The first 6-months of each forecast had very good quality, with forecasts fairly unbiased (Box Plot 1) and accurate (Box Plot 2). Average MPE varied from -1.2% to 1.8%, and average MAPE varied from 0.4% to 3.9%. With few exceptions, forecast errors were under 5%.

For all program areas, the quality of forecasts decline as time increases since the forecast was issued. OFRA’s practice of updating the forecasts twice each year is intended to address this issue.

6


Note: First forecast for Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities programs was produced in Fall 2009. There are no

forecasts for Child Welfare for Spring 2012 and Fall 2012.

7

-1.2%

1.8%

[13.7%]

[16.5%]

[-19.9%]

[13.7%]


Note: First forecast for Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities programs was produced in Fall 2009. There are no forecasts for Child Welfare for Spring 2012 and Fall 2012.

8

3.9%

0.4%


Aging and People with Disabilities (APD)

Nursing Facility Care (NFC)

Community Based Care (CBC)

In-Home Care (IHC)

9


The Aging and People with Disabilities (APD) caseload forecast includes 18 Long-Term Care (LTC) service categories grouped into three broad categories: Nursing Facility Care, Community-Based Care, and In-Home Care. Within Nursing Facility Care, the largest service category is Basic Nursing Facility; for Community-Based Care the largest service categories are Assisted Living and Commercial Adult Foster Care; and, for In-Home Care, the largest service category is In-Home Hourly. Due to the small caseload size for many of the individual service categories, only totals for Nursing Facility Care, Community-Based Care, and In-Home Care are included in this report.

Forecast Quality

Overall

The overall quality of APD forecasts is very high. Over the course of 14 forecasts, the average 6-month forecast MPEs for Nursing Facility Care (NFC), Community-Based Care (CBC), and In-Home Care (IHC) are -1.0%, -0.4%, and 0.7% respectively (Box Plot 1.1). While forecasts for CBC and IHC hover around zero, NFC forecasts show a tendency towards being over-forecast (actuals are lower than forecasts). NFC’s Fall 2013 forecast is an exception, however; in this instance, the forecast was developed without including Hospice caseloads, which had in fact been included in actuals since May 2013, resulting in an under-forecast with MPE and MAPE of 6.4% (Appendix A1). However, if Hospice actuals are excluded (as assumed in the forecast), errors drop to the 1.0% level. The accuracy of 6-month forecasts is highest for CBC with its average MAPE at 0.7%, followed by IHC with an average of 1.4%, and NFC at 2.4% (Box Plot 1.2).

10


Elapsed Time since Forecast was Issued

As expected, forecast quality is lower in the long term. Higher error variation is observed for both quality measures (MPE and MAPE) as prediction time period increases from 6 to 12 months and from 12 to 24 months (Box Plots 1.3 and 1.4). Even so, the quality remains relatively high, with the average MPE shifting slightly to the negative, indicating greater tendency towards over-forecasting further out from the prediction, and average MAPE growing incrementally larger.

11


Quality of Different Forecast Cycles

Forecast quality was impacted by the economic downturn of 2008-09. In-Home Care forecast quality was also impacted by the retroactive addition of In-Home Agency and State Plan Personal Care (Agency) service categories in July 2009 and Independent Choices in July 2011. Finally, 2012-13 cycle quality suffered from the exclusion of Hospice caseloads from the Nursing Facility Care forecast in Fall 2013. Implementation of K Plan1 had a profound impact on In-Home Care Caseload and resulted in higher than usual forecast errors in Fall 2014 cycle.

More detailed information for each individual APD program can be found in Appendix A1-A3.

1 K-Plan was implemented in late 2013 and it changed the eligibility requirements for Long Term Care. Before clients had to meet four criteria: 1) be assessed as needing help with activities of daily living, 2) be over 65 or have an official determination of disability, 3) have income below 300% of SSI (roughly 225% FPL), and 4) have very limited assets. Under K-plan, clients only need to meet two criteria: 1) be assessed as needing help with activities of daily living and 2) be eligible for a Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid).

12


Child Welfare (CW)

Foster Care

Adoption Assistance

13


The Child Welfare caseload forecast includes 4 service categories: Adoption Assistance, Guardianship Assistance, Foster Care, and Child In-Home. DHS implemented a new Child Welfare computer system (OR-KIDS) in August 2011. The Spring 2013 forecast is the first edition based on OR-KIDS data. No forecasts were done in Spring 2012 and Fall 2012 due to data problems caused by the system conversion. Only Adoption Assistance and Foster Care caseloads meet the size criteria to be included in this report.

Forecast Quality

Overall

The overall quality of Child Welfare forecasts is very high with the exception of Fall 2008, when an error in the monthly Foster Care counts resulted in large forecast error of 13.7% (for more information, see the Spring 2009 Forecast, B-16, Out of Home Care Forecast available at http://www.oregon.gov/dhs/ofra/ofradocuments/Spring%202009%20Forecast.pdf ).

The quality of 6-month forecasts for Adoption Assistance are higher than for Foster Care. The average MPE is -0.4% and the average MAPE is 0.6%. Foster Care forecast has somewhat lower quality, but it is largely due to the Fall 2008 data point. The average MPE for Foster Care is 1.3% and the average MAPE is 2.7% (Box Plot 2.1, Box Plot 2.2).

14

http://www.oregon.gov/dhs/ofra/ofradocuments/Spring%202009%20Forecast.pdf


Note: There are no forecasts for Spring and Fall 2012.

Time Elapsed since Forecast was Issued

The quality of 12 and 24-month forecasts are unusually high: quality declines only slightly as prediction time period increases from 6 to 12 months and from 12 to 24 months (Box Plots 2.3 and 2.4). The average MPE shifts into the negative, indicating a small bias towards over-forecasting further out from the prediction and the average MAPE gets incrementally larger.


15



The quality of 6-month forecasts has improved over time (Box Plots 2.5 and 2.6).


The individual forecast error reports for Adoption Assistance and Foster Care programs can be found in Appendix B1-B2.

16


Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities (I/DD)

Case Management

Brokerage Enrollment (Adult)

17


The Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities (I/DD) caseload forecast includes Case Management (delivered to all individuals with intellectual or developmental disabilities) and 14 service categories that fall into three broad groups: Adult services, Child services, and Other services. Most of the service categories are quite small, so only the Case Management and Adult Brokerage categories met the size criteria for inclusion in this report. The first I/DD caseload forecast was produced in Fall 2009, therefore there are no data for the Fall 2008 and Spring 2009 forecasts.

Forecast Quality

Overall

The overall quality of I/DD forecasts is excellent. The forecasts are unbiased: 6-month average MPEs for Case Management and Adult Brokerage are 0.3% and -0.6% respectively (Box Plot 3.1). They are also very accurate: average 6-month MAPEs for Case Management and Adult Brokerage are 0.5% and 0.8% respectively; all of the 6-month MAPEs are below 2% (Box Plot 3.2).

Note: First forecast produced Fall 2009.

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Forecast quality is lower in the long term. Higher error variation is observed for both quality measures (MPE and MAPE) as prediction time period increases from 6 to 12 months and from 12 to 24 months (Box Plots 3.3 and 3.4). Long term forecasts are biased towards being over-forecast (the actuals are lower than the forecast). The 12-month forecasts are still relatively high quality, with all errors under 3% and small negative bias. The 24-month forecasts are less accurate and have greater negative bias, but are very good in comparison to 24-month forecasts from other program areas.



The quality of 6-month forecasts was good for the 2010-11, 2012-13, and 2014-15 cycles, with errors not exceeding 2% (Box Plots 3.5 and 3.6). The 2008-09 cycle is harder to judge since I/DD forecasts did not begin until Fall 2009.

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The individual forecast error reports for Case Management and Adult Brokerage programs can be found in Appendix C1-C2.

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Medical Assistance Programs (MAP)

ACA Adults

Parent/Caretaker Relative (PCR)

Pregnant Women

Children’s Medicaid

Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP)

Aid to Blind and Disabled (ABAD)

Old Age Assistance (OAA)

Foster/Substitute Care & Adoption Assistance (FSCAA)

Qualified Medicare Beneficiary (QMB)

Citizen/Alien-Waived Emergent Medical (CAWEM)

21


Medical Assistance Program (MAP) caseloads fall into two broad groups: OHP Plus and Other. OHP Plus includes the following eight categories: ACA Adults, Parent/Caretaker Relative (PCR), Pregnant Women, Children’s Medicaid, Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Aid to the Blind and Aid to the Disabled (ABAD), Old Age Assistance (OAA), and Foster/Substitute Care and Adoption Assistance (FSCAA). Other contains three categories: Qualified Medicare Beneficiaries (QMB), Citizen/Alien-Waived Emergent Medical (CAWEM), and the Breast and Cervical Cancer Program. The Breast and Cervical Cancer program is too small for inclusion in this report.

January 2014 marked the start of comprehensive health care reform under the Affordable Care Act (ACA)2. As a result of ACA reform, three new caseloads were formed: 1) ACA Adults, 2) Children’s Medicaid (this new caseload combined kids from Poverty Level Medical – Children program, TANF Related and Extended Medical programs, and CHIP kids under 133% FPL), and 3) Parent/Caretaker Relative (this includes adults only from the former TANF Related and Extended Medical programs). Due to these changes, the historical series for TANF Related Medical, TANF Extended Medical, and Poverty Level Medical – Children have been discontinued. See previous publications for information about the forecast quality for those caseloads. Quality tracking is now in place for the new caseloads. Due to an insufficient number of observations they are not included in the summary level box plots, although detailed information is available in Appendix D1, D2, and D4.

Forecast Quality

Overall

The overall quality of MAP forecasts is very good with the exception of:

1) Fall 2009 and Spring 2010 forecasts for CHIP, when the forecasts overestimated the immediate impact of the Healthy Kids Program implementation (average MPE of -9.6% in Fall 2009 and -19.9% in Spring 2010), and

2) Spring 2014 and Fall 2014 - Implementation of the ACA reform in January 2014 introduced many uncertainties and challenges which consequently impacted the quality of forecasts for several Medical Assistance Programs.

The 6-month forecasts for MAP caseloads appear largely unbiased (Box Plot 4.1). CAWEM represents the largest bias observed, an average MPE of 1.8% (under-forecast). Accuracy is high

2 Under ACA reform the Medicaid eligibility expanded to adults with family incomes under 138% FPL. Previously, in Oregon, adults under 100% FPL qualified for medical coverage under a STANDARD program, but not everyone who met the criteria got coverage – lottery determined who received the coverage from the reservation list. ACA reform also expanded the eligibility for CAWEM program (this program provides emergent medical coverage to clients who meet the income eligibility for Medicaid coverage but don’t have the required residency/citizenship status.

22


for most MAP caseloads, with all average 6-month MAPEs below 5%, although CAWEM, CHIP, FSCAA, and Pregnant Women exceeded 5% mark in a few cases (Box Plot 4.2).

23



As expected, 12-month and 24-month forecasts are less accurate. Higher error variation is observed for both quality measures (MPE and MAPE) as the prediction time increases (Box Plots 4.3 and 4.4). While accuracy diminishes further out from the forecast (average MAPEs for 6, 12, and 24-month forecasts are 1.9%, 3.1%, and 4.0% respectively), the forecasts appear to be fairly unbiased regardless of time (average MPEs for 6, 12, and 24-month forecasts are 0.0%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively).

24



The quality of 6-month forecasts in the 2012-13 cycle is very good, with an average MPE of 0.3% and MAPE of 1.9%; errors rarely exceed 2% and are unbiased and well balanced around zero (Box Plots 4.5 and 4.6). The quality of MAP forecasts in the two cycles between 2008 and 2011 was impacted by the unstable economy and major policy changes. Some events of significant impact were: the 2008-09 recession, and the 2009-10 HealthyKids3 implementation. The quality of the most recent cycle (2014-15) is impacted by the ACA implementation.

3 Healthy Kids reform was implemented in 2009. A few changes impacted kids caseloads: 1) CHIP eligibility income limit increased from 185 to 200%FPL, 2) certification period changed from 6 to 12 months for PLMC, 3) the resource limitation was removed, and 4) lawful permanent residents under age 19 with less than 5 years of residency were made eligible for the traditional Medicaid rather than CAWEM benefits.

25


The individual forecast error reports for MAP programs can be found in Appendix D1-D10.

26


Self Sufficiency Programs (SSP)

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)

27


The Self-Sufficiency (SSP) caseload forecast covers five program areas: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), Employment Related Daycare (ERDC), Temporary Assistance for Domestic Violence Survivors (TADVS), and Pre-SSI. Only SNAP and TANF met all of the selection criteria and are included in the report. The ERDC program has a maximum capacity and a waiting list and the TADVS and Pre-SSI programs are too small. Self-Sufficiency caseloads are measured by both number of clients and number of cases. For SNAP a case means a household; for TANF a case means a family.

Forecast Quality

Overall

The overall quality of SSP forecasts is very high, with small bias and high accuracy. Average 6-month forecast MPE’s for SNAP and TANF are: 0.7% and 0.8% respectively (Box Plot 5.1), meaning that the forecasts for SSP are slightly biased to being under-forecast (forecasts are lower than the actuals). The accuracy of 6-month forecasts is high: average MAPEs for SNAP and TANF are 1.0% and 1.7% respectively (Box Plot 5.2);

28


Elapsed Time since Forecast was Issued

12 and 24-month forecasts are much less accurate than 6-month forecasts. Higher error variation is observed for both quality measures, MPE and MAPE, as prediction time increases (Box Plots 5.3 and 5.4). The positive bias grows larger the further the forecast extends, indicating an increasing tendency to under-forecast (average MPEs for 6, 12, and 24-month forecasts are 0.7%, 2.3%, and 6.4% respectively). Accuracy diminishes as the forecasting period increases (average MAPEs for 6, 12, and 24-month forecasts are 1.3%, 2.9%, and 6.7% respectively).


The SNAP and TANF programs are very sensitive to economic conditions. However, using Oregon employment as a predictor in the forecasting model aided in producing fairly high quality forecasts despite the 2008-09 recession (Box Plots 5.5 and 5.6). The 2008-09 and 2010-11 forecasts tended to under-estimate actuals, but still have error rates below 4%. The quality of 6-month forecasts in 2012-13 is near-perfect, with average MPEs well-balanced around zero and not exceeding 1% in absolute values. It is difficult to judge the quality of the 2014-15 cycle as it only contains two forecasts – Spring and Fall 2014.

29


The individual forecast error reports for SNAP and TANF programs can be found in Appendix E1-E2.

30


APPENDICES

31


Appendix A1: Aging and People with Disabilities Programs, Nursing Facility Care

32


Quality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 4,784 4,938 -3.2% 3.2%Fall-09 4,762 4,779 -0.4% 0.9%Spring-10 4,645 4,713 -1.5% 1.5%Fall-10 4,619 4,742 -2.7% 2.7%Spring-11 4,616 4,708 -2.0% 2.0%Fall-11 4,553 4,598 -1.0% 1.0%Spring-12 4,460 4,533 -1.6% 1.7%Fall-12 4,477 4,474 0.1% 0.6%Spring-13 4,412 4,500 -2.0% 2.0%Fall-13 4,388 4,108 6.4% 6.4%Spring-14 4,327 4,361 -0.8% 0.8%Fall-14 4,269 4,170 2.3% 2.4%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 4,786 4,917 -2.7% 2.7%Fall-09 4,703 4,740 -0.8% 1.0%Spring-10 4,642 4,701 -1.3% 1.6%Fall-10 4,632 4,742 -2.4% 2.6%Spring-11 4,601 4,678 -1.7% 1.7%Fall-11 4,497 4,587 -2.0% 2.0%Spring-12 4,468 4,527 -1.3% 1.4%Fall-12 4,433 4,478 -1.0% 1.4%Spring-13 4,380 4,498 -2.7% 2.7%Fall-13 4,341 4,084 5.9% 5.9%Spring-14 4,298 4,331 -0.8% 0.8%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 4,721 4,890 -3.6% 3.6%Fall-09 4,665 4,667 -0.1% 1.1%Spring-10 4,613 4,710 -2.1% 2.3%Fall-10 4,591 4,763 -3.8% 3.8%Spring-11 4,539 4,678 -3.1% 3.1%Fall-11 4,454 4,568 -2.6% 2.6%Spring-12 4,422 4,520 -2.2% 2.3%Fall-12 4,382 4,486 -2.4% 2.6%Spring-13 4,339 4,496 -3.6% 3.6%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle

Avg Mo CaseloadMPE MAPE

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle

Avg Mo CaseloadMPE MAPE 5.9%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

6.4%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-3.8%

3.8%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

33


Appendix A2: Aging and People with Disabilities Programs, Community Based CareQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 11,001 10,893 1.0% 1.0%Fall-09 11,507 11,416 0.8% 0.8%Spring-10 11,823 11,828 0.0% 0.2%Fall-10 11,950 11,942 0.1% 0.1%Spring-11 12,217 12,302 -0.7% 0.7%Fall-11 12,446 12,566 -1.0% 1.0%Spring-12 12,542 12,502 0.3% 0.4%Fall-12 12,707 12,748 -0.3% 0.4%Spring-13 12,682 12,797 -0.9% 1.0%Fall-13 11,438 11,550 -1.0% 1.0%Spring-14 11,451 11,506 -0.5% 0.5%Fall-14 11,528 11,522 0.1% 0.1%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 11,201 10,972 2.0% 2.0%Fall-09 11,665 11,508 1.3% 1.3%Spring-10 11,975 11,996 -0.2% 0.3%Fall-10 12,065 12,114 -0.4% 0.5%Spring-11 12,320 12,428 -0.9% 0.9%Fall-11 12,513 12,696 -1.5% 1.5%Spring-12 12,624 12,587 0.3% 0.3%Fall-12 12,694 12,835 -1.1% 1.2%Spring-13 12,275 12,875 -5.2% 5.2%Fall-13 11,453 11,634 -1.6% 1.6%Spring-14 11,490 11,591 -0.9% 0.9%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 11,538 11,084 3.9% 3.9%Fall-09 11,945 11,674 2.2% 2.2%Spring-10 12,180 12,312 -1.1% 1.1%Fall-10 12,247 12,439 -1.5% 1.6%Spring-11 12,445 12,678 -1.9% 1.9%Fall-11 12,605 12,946 -2.7% 2.7%Spring-12 12,395 12,749 -3.1% 3.4%Fall-12 12,125 13,007 -7.6% 7.7%Spring-13 11,882 13,022 -9.9% 9.9%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-5.2%

5.2%

-12.0%

-8.0%

-4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%MPEMAPE

-12.0%

-8.0%

-4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%MPEMAPE

-9.9%

9.9%

-12.0%

-8.0%

-4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%MPEMAPE

34


Appendix A3: Aging and People with Disabilities Programs, In-Home CareQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 10,805 10,533 2.5% 2.5%Fall-09 10,990 10,966 0.2% 0.2%Spring-10 11,116 11,152 -0.3% 0.3%Fall-10 11,137 11,161 -0.2% 0.4%Spring-11 11,017 11,127 -1.0% 1.0%Fall-11 10,906 10,988 -0.8% 0.8%Spring-12 10,837 10,928 -0.8% 0.8%Fall-12 11,021 10,811 1.7% 2.3%Spring-13 12,210 12,352 -1.2% 1.2%Fall-13 13,611 13,304 2.2% 2.2%Spring-14 14,087 13,788 2.1% 2.1%Fall-14 15,169 14,682 3.2% 3.2%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 10,874 10,554 2.9% 2.9%Fall-09 11,053 10,998 0.5% 0.5%Spring-10 11,091 11,212 -1.1% 1.1%Fall-10 11,084 11,221 -1.2% 1.3%Spring-11 10,970 11,167 -1.8% 1.8%Fall-11 10,869 11,030 -1.5% 1.5%Spring-12 10,929 10,935 -0.2% 1.9%Fall-12 11,610 10,803 6.6% 6.9%Spring-13 12,645 12,359 2.0% 3.7%Fall-13 14,014 13,335 4.8% 4.8%Spring-14 14,628 13,850 5.2% 5.2%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 10,984 10,593 3.5% 3.5%Fall-09 11,034 11,054 -0.2% 0.7%Spring-10 11,013 11,328 -2.9% 2.9%Fall-10 10,995 11,344 -3.2% 3.2%Spring-11 10,902 11,241 -3.1% 3.1%Fall-11 11,296 11,098 1.5% 4.1%Spring-12 11,851 10,945 6.9% 8.0%Fall-12 12,702 10,798 14.1% 14.2%Spring-13 13,637 12,371 8.6% 9.4%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


6.9%

-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%

MPEMAPE

3.2%

-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%

MPEMAPE

14.2%

-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%

MPEMAPE

35


Appendix B1: Child Welfare Programs, Foster CareQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 8,072 8,050 0.3% 0.7%Fall-09 8,118 8,135 -0.2% 0.4%Spring-10 8,101 8,097 0.0% 1.2%Fall-10 8,296 8,058 2.9% 2.9%Spring-11 8,374 8,227 1.8% 1.8%Fall-11 8,095 8,294 -2.5% 2.7%Spring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 7,773 7,929 -2.0% 2.0%Fall-13 7,500 7,468 0.4% 0.4%Spring-14 7,327 7,437 -1.5% 1.5%Fall-14 7,165 7,237 -1.0% 1.2%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 8,092 7,996 1.2% 1.4%Fall-09 8,128 8,079 0.6% 0.9%Spring-10 8,243 8,073 2.0% 2.6%Fall-10 8,345 8,056 3.5% 3.5%Spring-11 8,265 8,190 0.9% 1.3%Fall-11 8,014 8,278 -3.3% 3.4%Spring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 7,652 7,916 -3.5% 3.5%Fall-13 7,380 7,469 -1.2% 1.7%Spring-14 7,236 7,452 -3.0% 3.0%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 8,155 7,873 3.4% 3.5%Fall-09 8,240 8,006 2.8% 3.0%Spring-10 8,233 8,090 1.7% 2.4%Fall-10 8,201 8,058 1.7% 2.7%Spring-11 8,114 8,148 -0.5% 1.6%Fall-11 7,950 8,245 -3.7% 3.8%Spring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 7,444 7,903 -6.3% 6.3%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.N/F - Forecast not available or was not done due to data issues.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

2.9%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-6.3%

6.3%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

36


Appendix B2: Child Welfare Programs, Adoption AssistanceQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 10,667 10,742 -0.7% 0.7%Fall-09 10,774 10,901 -1.2% 1.2%Spring-10 10,762 10,775 -0.1% 0.2%Fall-10 10,757 10,801 -0.4% 0.4%Spring-11 10,742 10,797 -0.5% 0.5%Fall-11 10,921 10,815 1.0% 1.0%Spring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 11,035 11,094 -0.5% 0.5%Fall-13 11,081 11,117 -0.3% 0.3%Spring-14 11,083 11,136 -0.5% 0.5%Fall-14 11,136 11,094 0.4% 0.4%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 10,722 10,902 -1.7% 1.7%Fall-09 10,766 11,005 -2.2% 2.2%Spring-10 10,760 10,823 -0.6% 0.6%Fall-10 10,751 10,897 -1.4% 1.4%Spring-11 10,822 10,855 -0.3% 0.4%Fall-11 10,893 10,884 0.1% 0.9%Spring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 11,052 11,160 -1.0% 1.0%Fall-13 11,087 11,162 -0.7% 0.7%Spring-14 11,120 11,169 -0.4% 0.4%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 10,741 11,202 -4.3% 4.3%Fall-09 10,767 11,197 -4.0% 4.0%Spring-10 10,797 11,055 -2.4% 2.4%Fall-10 10,817 11,187 -3.4% 3.4%Spring-11 10,855 10,988 -1.2% 1.3%Fall-11 10,937 10,988 -0.5% 1.0%Spring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 11,086 11,281 -1.8% 1.8%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.N/F - Forecast not available or was not done due to data issues.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-2.2%

2.2%

-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

MPEMAPE

-1.2%

1.2%

-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

MPEMAPE

-4.3%

4.3%

-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

MPEMAPE

37


Appendix C1: Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities Programs, Case ManagementQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 18,251 18,118 0.7% 0.7%Spring-10 18,730 18,626 0.6% 0.6%Fall-10 19,006 18,903 0.5% 0.5%Spring-11 19,464 19,512 -0.2% 0.3%Fall-11 19,744 19,905 -0.8% 0.8%Spring-12 20,004 19,988 0.1% 0.1%Fall-12 20,472 20,321 0.7% 0.7%Spring-13 20,840 20,706 0.6% 0.6%Fall-13 21,538 21,422 0.5% 0.5%Spring-14 21,972 21,867 0.5% 0.5%Fall-14 22,530 22,413 0.5% 0.5%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 18,490 18,256 1.3% 1.3%Spring-10 18,991 18,734 1.3% 1.3%Fall-10 19,214 19,101 0.6% 0.6%Spring-11 19,556 19,730 -0.9% 0.9%Fall-11 19,909 20,088 -0.9% 0.9%Spring-12 20,238 20,151 0.4% 0.4%Fall-12 20,692 20,481 1.0% 1.0%Spring-13 21,098 20,859 1.1% 1.1%Fall-13 21,811 21,629 0.8% 0.8%Spring-14 22,309 22,071 1.1% 1.1%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 18,942 18,532 2.1% 2.1%Spring-10 19,308 18,996 1.6% 1.6%Fall-10 19,471 19,515 -0.2% 0.8%Spring-11 19,826 20,214 -1.9% 1.9%Fall-11 20,339 20,454 -0.6% 0.6%Spring-12 20,709 20,478 1.1% 1.1%Fall-12 21,201 20,807 1.8% 1.8%Spring-13 21,649 21,186 2.1% 2.1%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.N/F - No forecast was produced.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


1.3%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%MPEMAPE

-0.8%

0.8%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%MPEMAPE

2.1% 2.1%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%MPEMAPE

38


Appendix C2: Intellectual/Developmental Disabilities Programs, Brokerage (Adult)Quality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 6,510 6,561 -0.8% 0.9%Spring-10 6,817 6,860 -0.6% 0.6%Fall-10 6,951 7,023 -1.0% 1.0%Spring-11 7,369 7,312 0.8% 0.8%Fall-11 7,331 7,473 -1.9% 1.9%Spring-12 7,127 7,181 -0.8% 0.8%Fall-12 7,234 7,246 -0.2% 0.3%Spring-13 7,280 7,327 -0.6% 0.7%Fall-13 7,490 7,493 0.0% 0.4%Spring-14 7,632 7,707 -1.0% 1.0%Fall-14 7,619 7,673 -0.7% 0.7%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 6,663 6,858 -2.9% 2.9%Spring-10 6,960 7,019 -0.8% 0.8%Fall-10 7,129 7,174 -0.6% 0.7%Spring-11 7,492 7,486 0.1% 1.0%Fall-11 7,238 7,415 -2.4% 2.4%Spring-12 7,180 7,275 -1.3% 1.3%Fall-12 7,258 7,371 -1.6% 1.6%Spring-13 7,327 7,421 -1.3% 1.4%Fall-13 7,560 7,649 -1.2% 1.4%Spring-14 7,622 7,756 -1.8% 1.8%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 6,979 7,443 -6.4% 6.5%Spring-10 7,209 7,305 -1.4% 1.6%Fall-10 7,255 7,445 -2.7% 2.9%Spring-11 7,318 7,770 -6.3% 6.8%Fall-11 7,252 7,516 -3.6% 3.6%Spring-12 7,268 7,448 -2.5% 2.5%Fall-12 7,394 7,559 -2.2% 2.3%Spring-13 7,475 7,590 -1.5% 1.6%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.N/F - No forecast was produced.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-2.9%

2.9%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-1.9%

1.9%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-6.3%

6.8%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

39


Appendix D1: Medical Assistance Programs, ACA AdultsQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 331,758 216,305 35.0% 35.0%Spring-14 331,758 265,217 20.1% 20.1%Fall-14 353,935 344,638 2.6% 2.6%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 351,261 242,382 31.2% 31.2%Spring-14 351,261 277,216 21.0% 21.0%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.N/F - Forecast not available or was not done due to data issues.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


31.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%MPEMAPE

35.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%MPEMAPE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%MPEMAPE

40


Appendix D2: Medical Assistance Programs, Parent/Caretaker RelativeQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-14 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-14 77,756 80,325 -3.3% 3.3%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-14 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-14 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.N/F - Forecast not available or was not done due to data issues.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

MPEMAPE

-3.3%

3.3%

-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

MPEMAPE

-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%

MPEMAPE

41


Appendix D3: Medical Assistance Programs, Pregnant WomenQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 11,225 10,923 2.3% 5.3%Fall-09 12,121 11,787 2.8% 2.8%Spring-10 12,558 12,033 4.1% 4.1%Fall-10 12,607 12,758 -1.2% 1.2%Spring-11 12,709 12,492 1.6% 3.4%Fall-11 12,944 13,176 -1.8% 1.9%Spring-12 13,128 13,105 0.2% 0.7%Fall-12 12,996 12,918 0.6% 0.7%Spring-13 13,080 12,995 0.6% 0.8%Fall-13 13,531 13,494 0.2% 1.6%Spring-14 16,975 14,043 16.5% 16.5%Fall-14 20,871 21,095 -1.1% 1.4%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 11,692 11,133 4.5% 6.0%Fall-09 12,373 11,710 5.3% 5.3%Spring-10 12,496 12,373 0.9% 3.3%Fall-10 12,547 12,918 -3.0% 3.0%Spring-11 12,833 12,494 2.6% 3.5%Fall-11 13,057 13,259 -1.6% 1.6%Spring-12 13,062 13,101 -0.3% 0.9%Fall-12 13,061 12,978 0.6% 0.7%Spring-13 13,242 13,056 1.4% 1.5%Fall-13 15,253 13,612 9.2% 10.0%Spring-14 19,094 14,146 24.6% 24.6%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 12,076 11,421 5.3% 6.0%Fall-09 12,514 12,212 2.4% 3.4%Spring-10 12,685 12,960 -2.1% 4.3%Fall-10 12,780 13,264 -3.8% 3.8%Spring-11 12,948 12,695 1.9% 2.6%Fall-11 13,097 13,282 -1.4% 1.7%Spring-12 13,166 13,144 0.2% 1.4%Fall-12 13,932 13,051 5.3% 5.4%Spring-13 15,501 13,168 12.3% 12.4%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%MPEMAPE

16.5%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%MPEMAPE

12.4%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%MPEMAPE

42


Appendix D4: Medical Assistance Programs, Children’s MedicaidQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-14 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-14 337,593 334,176 1.0% 1.1%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-14 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-09 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-10 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-11 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-12 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-13 N/F N/F N/F N/FSpring-14 N/F N/F N/F N/FFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.N/F - Forecast not available or was not done due to data issues.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%MPEMAPE

1.1%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%MPEMAPE

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%MPEMAPE

43


Appendix D5: Medical Assistance Programs, Children’s Health Insurance ProgramQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 47,927 47,228 1.4% 1.4%Fall-09 49,592 54,439 -9.6% 9.6%Spring-10 53,202 63,891 -19.9% 19.9%Fall-10 56,941 56,373 1.0% 1.0%Spring-11 64,804 66,159 -2.1% 2.1%Fall-11 69,598 69,953 -0.5% 0.5%Spring-12 70,646 71,437 -1.1% 1.1%Fall-12 72,566 71,493 1.5% 1.5%Spring-13 74,682 74,693 0.0% 0.1%Fall-13 77,923 77,306 0.8% 1.0%Spring-14 77,186 71,222 7.8% 7.9%Fall-14 77,141 78,057 -1.2% 1.2%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 48,007 47,175 1.7% 1.7%Fall-09 52,024 63,005 -20.5% 20.5%Spring-10 56,988 69,782 -22.2% 22.2%Fall-10 60,174 60,325 -0.2% 1.2%Spring-11 66,651 67,943 -1.9% 1.9%Fall-11 70,272 70,915 -0.9% 0.9%Spring-12 71,606 72,277 -0.9% 0.9%Fall-12 73,757 72,132 2.2% 2.2%Spring-13 75,698 75,224 0.6% 0.7%Fall-13 77,554 72,218 6.9% 7.5%Spring-14 76,651 70,853 7.5% 7.6%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 51,480 47,790 6.6% 6.6%Fall-09 57,943 72,559 -24.6% 24.6%Spring-10 62,133 77,088 -23.8% 23.8%Fall-10 64,517 67,534 -4.3% 4.8%Spring-11 69,129 70,653 -2.2% 2.2%Fall-11 72,389 72,713 -0.5% 0.7%Spring-12 73,869 73,857 0.0% 1.0%Fall-12 75,605 73,172 3.2% 3.2%Spring-13 76,635 76,294 0.4% 1.0%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-22.2%

22.2%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%MPEMAPE

-19.9%

19.9%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%MPEMAPE

-24.6%

24.6%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%MPEMAPE

44


Appendix D6: Medical Assistance Programs, Aid to Blind and DisabledQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 67,386 67,271 0.2% 0.5%Fall-09 71,148 71,399 -0.4% 0.4%Spring-10 72,954 73,293 -0.5% 0.5%Fall-10 74,064 74,386 -0.4% 0.4%Spring-11 76,683 77,629 -1.2% 1.2%Fall-11 78,353 78,894 -0.7% 0.7%Spring-12 79,145 79,105 0.1% 0.1%Fall-12 80,614 80,789 -0.2% 0.2%Spring-13 81,867 81,770 0.1% 0.1%Fall-13 83,976 83,877 0.1% 0.1%Spring-14 83,878 84,433 -0.7% 0.7%Fall-14 83,253 83,116 0.2% 0.2%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 68,822 68,255 0.8% 1.0%Fall-09 72,243 72,519 -0.4% 0.4%Spring-10 74,079 74,339 -0.4% 0.4%Fall-10 75,092 75,902 -1.1% 1.1%Spring-11 77,323 79,369 -2.6% 2.6%Fall-11 78,961 80,109 -1.4% 1.4%Spring-12 79,880 79,884 0.0% 0.1%Fall-12 81,379 81,407 0.0% 0.2%Spring-13 82,660 82,589 0.1% 0.1%Fall-13 83,927 84,460 -0.6% 0.8%Spring-14 83,485 84,630 -1.4% 1.4%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 71,076 70,187 1.2% 1.3%Fall-09 74,281 74,671 -0.5% 0.5%Spring-10 75,803 76,503 -0.9% 0.9%Fall-10 76,627 78,887 -2.9% 2.9%Spring-11 78,601 82,952 -5.5% 5.5%Fall-11 80,440 82,593 -2.6% 2.6%Spring-12 81,414 81,556 -0.2% 0.2%Fall-12 82,636 82,663 0.0% 0.5%Spring-13 83,226 83,881 -0.8% 0.9%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-2.6%

2.6%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-1.2%

1.2%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-5.5%

5.5%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

45


Appendix D7: Medical Assistance Programs, Old Age AssistanceQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 30,877 31,069 -0.6% 0.6%Fall-09 31,791 31,765 0.1% 0.1%Spring-10 32,170 31,978 0.6% 0.6%Fall-10 32,478 32,476 0.0% 0.1%Spring-11 33,251 33,622 -1.1% 1.6%Fall-11 33,778 34,867 -3.2% 3.2%Spring-12 34,141 34,628 -1.4% 1.4%Fall-12 34,871 35,152 -0.8% 0.8%Spring-13 35,240 35,299 -0.2% 0.2%Fall-13 36,024 36,361 -0.9% 0.9%Spring-14 36,812 36,697 0.3% 0.4%Fall-14 37,888 37,777 0.3% 0.4%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 31,189 31,301 -0.4% 0.4%Fall-09 32,025 32,005 0.1% 0.1%Spring-10 32,583 32,069 1.6% 1.6%Fall-10 32,838 32,790 0.1% 0.5%Spring-11 33,411 34,085 -2.0% 2.3%Fall-11 34,076 35,305 -3.6% 3.6%Spring-12 34,506 35,219 -2.1% 2.1%Fall-12 35,093 35,701 -1.7% 1.7%Spring-13 35,521 35,684 -0.5% 0.5%Fall-13 36,418 36,799 -1.0% 1.0%Spring-14 37,460 37,121 0.9% 0.9%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 31,752 31,774 -0.1% 0.3%Fall-09 32,590 32,509 0.2% 0.4%Spring-10 33,003 32,308 2.1% 2.1%Fall-10 33,256 33,421 -0.5% 0.8%Spring-11 33,958 34,980 -3.0% 3.1%Fall-11 34,673 36,129 -4.2% 4.2%Spring-12 35,058 36,267 -3.4% 3.4%Fall-12 35,685 36,713 -2.9% 2.9%Spring-13 36,302 36,533 -0.6% 0.7%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-3.6%

3.6%

-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

MPEMAPE

-3.2%

3.2%

-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

MPEMAPE

-4.2%

4.2%

-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

MPEMAPE

46


Appendix D8: Medical Assistance Programs, Foster/Substitute Care and Adoption AssistanceQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 17,917 18,043 -0.7% 1.1%Fall-09 18,426 19,437 -5.9% 5.9%Spring-10 19,100 19,116 -0.1% 0.4%Fall-10 19,114 19,252 -0.7% 0.9%Spring-11 18,773 19,123 -1.9% 2.2%Fall-11 18,400 18,439 -0.2% 0.4%Spring-12 18,582 18,581 0.0% 0.3%Fall-12 18,936 18,893 0.2% 0.3%Spring-13 19,065 19,043 0.1% 0.5%Fall-13 18,765 18,943 -1.0% 1.0%Spring-14 18,692 18,642 0.3% 0.4%Fall-14 18,921 18,916 0.0% 0.1%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 18,289 18,078 1.1% 2.0%Fall-09 18,793 19,548 -4.2% 4.2%Spring-10 19,059 19,181 -0.6% 0.9%Fall-10 19,009 19,378 -2.0% 2.1%Spring-11 18,590 19,237 -3.5% 3.6%Fall-11 18,562 18,366 1.0% 1.4%Spring-12 18,759 18,568 1.0% 1.2%Fall-12 19,000 18,909 0.5% 0.5%Spring-13 18,977 19,041 -0.3% 0.7%Fall-13 18,728 18,903 -0.9% 1.0%Spring-14 18,812 18,655 0.8% 0.9%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 18,555 18,184 1.9% 3.3%Fall-09 18,780 19,705 -5.0% 5.0%Spring-10 18,795 19,322 -2.8% 3.0%Fall-10 18,734 19,624 -4.8% 4.9%Spring-11 18,675 19,424 -4.0% 4.1%Fall-11 18,787 18,246 2.8% 3.0%Spring-12 18,851 18,489 1.9% 2.0%Fall-12 18,870 19,000 -0.7% 1.2%Spring-13 18,871 19,104 -1.2% 1.4%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-4.2%

4.2%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-5.9%

5.9%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-5.0%

5.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

47


Appendix D9: Medical Assistance Programs, Qualified Medicare BeneficiaryQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 13,517 13,652 -1.0% 1.0%Fall-09 13,677 13,677 0.0% 0.0%Spring-10 14,405 14,252 1.0% 1.1%Fall-10 14,936 14,931 0.0% 0.2%Spring-11 16,539 16,499 0.2% 0.3%Fall-11 18,230 18,173 0.3% 0.4%Spring-12 18,793 18,913 -0.6% 0.8%Fall-12 19,459 19,741 -1.4% 1.4%Spring-13 20,250 20,276 -0.1% 0.3%Fall-13 21,673 21,756 -0.4% 0.4%Spring-14 22,321 22,628 -1.4% 1.4%Fall-14 22,497 22,651 -0.7% 0.7%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 13,450 13,873 -3.2% 3.2%Fall-09 14,126 14,036 0.6% 0.6%Spring-10 14,951 14,595 2.3% 2.3%Fall-10 15,518 15,227 1.8% 1.9%Spring-11 17,168 17,193 -0.1% 0.4%Fall-11 18,588 18,695 -0.6% 0.9%Spring-12 19,126 19,390 -1.4% 1.4%Fall-12 19,931 20,300 -1.8% 1.8%Spring-13 20,780 20,739 0.2% 0.4%Fall-13 21,997 22,287 -1.3% 1.3%Spring-14 22,427 23,053 -2.8% 2.8%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 14,024 14,306 -2.1% 2.7%Fall-09 15,225 14,911 1.9% 1.9%Spring-10 16,164 15,283 5.2% 5.2%Fall-10 16,754 15,678 6.0% 6.1%Spring-11 18,147 18,260 -0.6% 0.7%Fall-11 19,428 19,760 -1.7% 1.8%Spring-12 20,038 20,330 -1.5% 1.5%Fall-12 20,906 21,381 -2.2% 2.2%Spring-13 21,554 21,559 0.0% 0.7%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-3.2%

3.2%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

-1.4%

1.4%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

6.1%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%MPEMAPE

48


Appendix D10: Medical Assistance Programs, Citizen/Alien-Waived Emergent MedicalQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 20,014 18,811 5.7% 5.8%Fall-09 21,916 21,651 1.2% 2.1%Spring-10 23,495 22,646 3.6% 3.6%Fall-10 24,018 24,256 -1.0% 1.0%Spring-11 26,254 25,938 1.2% 1.2%Fall-11 26,408 26,204 0.8% 1.6%Spring-12 26,887 26,871 0.1% 0.3%Fall-12 26,352 26,314 0.1% 0.9%Spring-13 25,770 25,773 0.0% 0.5%Fall-13 24,374 24,904 -2.2% 2.2%Spring-14 31,630 26,904 13.7% 13.7%Fall-14 38,402 38,448 -0.1% 1.3%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 20,925 19,006 8.9% 8.9%Fall-09 22,832 22,427 1.7% 2.2%Spring-10 23,956 23,140 3.4% 3.4%Fall-10 24,735 24,193 2.1% 3.1%Spring-11 26,393 26,127 1.0% 1.6%Fall-11 26,707 25,896 3.0% 3.4%Spring-12 26,619 26,742 -0.5% 0.6%Fall-12 26,029 26,363 -1.3% 1.8%Spring-13 25,305 26,032 -2.9% 3.2%Fall-13 28,002 25,151 7.8% 11.3%Spring-14 35,282 27,391 21.0% 21.0%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 22,193 19,256 12.8% 12.8%Fall-09 24,272 22,792 5.8% 6.0%Spring-10 25,223 23,099 8.2% 8.2%Fall-10 25,712 24,419 4.9% 5.4%Spring-11 26,506 26,677 -0.7% 2.0%Fall-11 26,223 25,682 2.0% 2.7%Spring-12 25,883 26,792 -3.6% 3.7%Fall-12 26,536 26,341 -0.3% 6.4%Spring-13 28,929 26,237 6.5% 12.0%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%MPEMAPE

13.7%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%MPEMAPE

12.8%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%MPEMAPE

49


Appendix E1: Self Sufficiency Programs, Temporary Assistance for Needy FamiliesQuality of the first 6-months of the forecasts

Actual ForecastSpring-09 24,686 23,779 3.6% 3.6%Fall-09 25,777 25,246 2.0% 2.1%Spring-10 27,110 26,738 1.4% 1.4%Fall-10 27,944 27,159 2.8% 2.8%Spring-11 30,084 29,660 1.4% 1.4%Fall-11 33,842 33,689 0.4% 0.9%Spring-12 35,487 35,440 0.1% 0.4%Fall-12 35,884 36,030 -0.4% 0.5%Spring-13 36,014 35,973 0.1% 0.4%Fall-13 34,331 34,593 -0.8% 0.8%Spring-14 33,697 33,698 0.0% 0.4%Fall-14 31,153 31,975 -2.7% 2.7%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 24,897 24,250 2.6% 2.6%Fall-09 26,568 25,392 4.3% 4.3%Spring-10 28,046 26,768 4.4% 4.4%Fall-10 28,900 27,581 4.5% 4.5%Spring-11 31,338 29,654 5.2% 5.2%Fall-11 34,664 33,943 2.0% 2.3%Spring-12 35,686 35,471 0.6% 0.7%Fall-12 35,688 35,788 -0.3% 0.6%Spring-13 35,263 35,534 -0.8% 1.0%Fall-13 33,569 33,999 -1.3% 1.3%Spring-14 32,175 33,086 -3.0% 3.2%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 26,329 24,842 5.4% 5.4%Fall-09 28,358 25,655 9.1% 9.1%Spring-10 30,126 26,541 11.2% 11.2%Fall-10 31,207 27,429 11.4% 11.4%Spring-11 33,379 29,581 10.9% 10.9%Fall-11 35,176 33,795 3.9% 4.0%Spring-12 35,306 34,797 1.4% 1.5%Fall-12 34,761 34,703 0.2% 0.7%Spring-13 33,930 34,754 -2.6% 2.7%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


5.2%

-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%

MPEMAPE

3.6%

-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%

MPEMAPE

11.4%

-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%

MPEMAPE

50


Appendix E2: Self Sufficiency Programs, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program


Actual ForecastSpring-09 308,382 296,209 3.8% 3.8%Fall-09 354,946 356,553 -0.5% 0.5%Spring-10 374,765 372,174 0.7% 0.7%Fall-10 386,114 384,487 0.4% 0.4%Spring-11 411,976 409,914 0.5% 0.5%Fall-11 431,841 431,779 0.0% 0.1%Spring-12 442,843 441,030 0.4% 0.5%Fall-12 443,237 446,474 -0.7% 0.7%Spring-13 443,902 440,609 0.7% 0.7%Fall-13 438,814 441,532 -0.6% 0.6%Spring-14 440,428 435,724 1.1% 1.1%Fall-14 436,685 435,704 0.2% 0.2%


Actual ForecastSpring-09 326,770 305,525 6.3% 6.3%Fall-09 366,722 365,098 0.4% 0.9%Spring-10 386,300 381,321 1.3% 1.3%Fall-10 397,408 394,845 0.6% 0.7%Spring-11 419,496 415,497 0.9% 0.9%Fall-11 437,342 437,216 0.0% 0.2%Spring-12 443,040 439,608 0.8% 0.8%Fall-12 443,480 446,628 -0.7% 0.7%Spring-13 442,052 435,739 1.4% 1.4%Fall-13 439,209 438,236 0.2% 0.9%Spring-14 438,166 430,224 1.8% 1.8%Fall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/A


Actual ForecastSpring-09 354,626 319,739 9.5% 9.5%Fall-09 388,750 377,479 2.7% 3.0%Spring-10 405,497 389,329 3.8% 3.8%Fall-10 414,469 404,084 2.4% 2.4%Spring-11 430,671 420,117 2.4% 2.4%Fall-11 440,411 435,614 1.1% 1.2%Spring-12 442,167 435,163 1.6% 1.6%Fall-12 441,520 442,794 -0.3% 0.6%Spring-13 440,298 428,820 2.6% 2.6%Fall-13 N/A N/A N/A N/ASpring-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AFall-14 N/A N/A N/A N/AN/A – Insuffi cient time has elapsed since the forecast was made to be evaluated.

Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


Forecast Cycle


6.3%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%MPEMAPE

3.8%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%MPEMAPE

9.5%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%MPEMAPE

51


Appendix F: Resources

1. CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2010 Update, available at: http://www.cbo.gov/publication/21520, last accessed on 7/15/2014

2. CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2013 Update, available at: http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43846, last accessed on 7/15/2014

3. Various Semi-annual Forecasts publications by OFRA, available at:http://www.oregon.gov/dhs/ofra/Pages/Forecasts-Reports-Publications.aspx

4. Office of Economic Analysis, Oregon Youth Authority Forecast Tracking Report: April 2007 Forecast, available at: http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/Pages/oya.aspx#Reports__pdf_ , last accessed on 7/15/2014

5. Office of Economic Analysis, Oregon Prison Population Forecast Accuracy 2000-2012, available at: http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/Pages/corrections.aspx#Reports__pdf_ , last accessed on 7/15/2014

6. Office of Economic Analysis, Excel file for Oregon’s Correction Forecast Historical Accuracy, 2000 to 2012 (xls), available at: http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/Pages/corrections.aspx#Reports__pdf_ , last accessed on 7/15/2014

7. Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting, last accessed on 7/15/2014

Report Prepared by: Betsy Jensvold and Sata Hackenbruck, DHS/OHA Shared Services, OFRA

52

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forecasting

http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/Pages/corrections.aspx#Reports__pdf_

http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/Pages/corrections.aspx#Reports__pdf_

http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/Pages/oya.aspx#Reports__pdf_

http://www.oregon.gov/dhs/ofra/Pages/Forecasts-Reports-Publications.aspx

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43846

http://www.cbo.gov/publication/21520

Documents

· Web viewState of Oregon ANNUAL FORECAST QUALITY REPORT DHS /OHA, Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis July 201 5 Contents Introduction3 Summary6 Aging and People with