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Weather Support for the 2002 Olympic and Paralympic Games
Dr. Tom Potter
SLOC Weather Coordinatorand NOAA Cooperative Institute for Regional
Prediction. U. of Utah Department of Meteorology
Presented by John Horel
KSL
2002 Winter Games
• 2500 Athletes• 78 Events at 10 Venues• 1.5 Million Spectators• 9000 Accredited Media + 4 K more• 26,000 Volunteers + 5000 Staff• Budget $ 1.3 Billion• Games Labeled “Outstanding” by
Athletes,Spectators,TV Audience, and the Media.
KSL
Wasatch Front
KSL
D. Judd
Downtown Salt Lake City
KSL
Paralympics
CIRP
Weather Effects on Olympic Activities
• Sport Competition Delays• Transportation (Ground and Air)• Spectator Safety & Comfort• Medical Emergency Response• Security• Snowmaking & Snow Removal• Engineering & Construction:
Seats,tents,flags,displays,…• Environmental Quality & Air Pollution• Ceremonies with weather-critical shows
before 50,000+ people in stadium
Potential Wx Concerns
Westwide Avalanche Network
• Forecasts of Precipitation in the Mountains• Forecasts for tiny sports venues at precise
fixed times• Heavy Snow• Strong Winds• Too Warm for Snowmaking• Rain on Snow• Low Visibility: Fog or Snow• Lightning• Avalanches
• Air Pollution
Actual Weather
• Nearly perfect for Winter Games: Colder & drier than normal, with
no big snowstorms, strong wind gusts, or low visibilities
• Few weather delays/postponements
- Mostly from winds - Only one postponement from
snow - Potential wind/lightning impacts
at all 4 Opening/Closing Ceremonies
What Was Provided
• Forecasts & Warnings : For 5 Outdoor Venues,the Salt Lake Area, and Roads
• Official Weather Conditions at Venues
• Historical Climate Data: Venues & Cities plus Climate Forecasts from CPC
• Consultant advice on applications: snowmaking,engineering & construction, transportation, security, ceremonies,...
Who Did the Job
Unique Weather Team from public, private, academic and military sectors
- NWS WFO: Area-wide & road corridor fcsts, plus led twice-daily conference calls
- KSL : Detailed fcsts for sports venues
- U: Pre-Game Planning, Sensors, MesoWest, Research, Fcst Tools, Hi-Res Analyses & Fcsts, Wx Aides
- Hill AFB: Helicopter Support and TMOS
- NWS Western Region SSD, NCEP, SLOC IS/Comm/Others, USFS Avalanche Center, FSL (FX-Net), UOPSC
Real-time Operations
• Weather Operations Center at NWS Office near SLC Airport (24/7)
• Coordinator/Aides at SLOC/MOC(04-1900)
• Weather Forecasters at Outdoor Venues ( 0400 to 1800 on event days)
• Volunteer Weather Aides at Outdoor Venues: Official Obs (0600 to 1800)
• High-res MM5 and ADAS Runs, MesoWest DataBase at U of U (24/7)
• Aviation Weather from Hill AFB (24/7)
Weather Operations Center
KSL
Weather Operations Center
KSL
Media Operations Center
KSL
CIRP
KSL Weather Team
KSL
Hill AFB
CIRP
Ingredients for Success
• Planning Before the Games– Science
• IPEX February 2000 field program• Local studies
– Technology• FX-Net• MesoWest• MM5/MM5-MOS
IPEX field program during February 2000
Research ongoing to improve the understanding, analysis, and prediction of precipitation and precipitation processes in complex terrain
More information: BAMS. February 2002
J. Steenburgh
IPEX- Intermountain Precipitation Experiment
FX NET• PC-based weather display
system from NOAA/FSL
• Provides access to NWS/AWIPS information at outdoor venues and Hill AFB
• Insures all forecasters on Olympic team have access to the same weather information
KSL
MesoWest surface network
• 2600 stations & 70 networks in western US
• 250+ stations in northern Utah
• BAMS. February 2002
www.met.utah.edu/mesowest
Monitoring Weather
MesoWest
Mesoscale modeling/(MOS)
Mesoscale Model Skill
Temperature MAE
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Mountain Mountain Valley Wasatch FrontValley
Site Type
MA
E (o
C)
MM5-12kmMM5-4kmMM5-12km AdjMM5-4km AdjMOS
The mean absolute error (MAE) of
temperature by geographic region for the period 23 Jan 2002 – 24 Mar 2002.
Ingredients for Success
• Operations During the Games– Clearly Defined Areas of Forecast
Responsibility During the Games• NWS: protection of life and property and
coordination with federal and state agencies• KSL: provide SLOC with detailed guidance for
weather critical events
* Forecasters Knew Local Mtn Weather* Each Component of Weather Team brought
unique strengths* Twice Daily Conference Calls Aided in
Accurate & Well-Coordinated Forecasts
Olympic region sites
Outdoor Venues
Soldier Hollow: Cross Country, Biathlon, Nordic Combined
Snowbasin Downhill, Combined, Super-G
Utah Olympic ParkBobsled, Luge, Skeleton,
Ski Jumping, Nordic Combined
Park CityAlpine GS, Snowboard GS
Snowboard Half Pipe
Deer ValleyAlpine Slalom, Aerials, Moguls
Locations of Weather Stations
Venue Forecasts
Soldier Hollow Cross Country/Biathlon Cross Country/Biathlon
CIRP
Deer Valley Aerial/Slalom/MogulsAerial/Slalom/Moguls
KSL
Park City Snowboard/Grand SlalomSnowboard/Grand Slalom
KSL
CIRP
Utah Olympic Park: Ski Jump/Bobsleigh/LugeSki Jump/Bobsleigh/Luge
CIRP
SnowBasin DownhillDownhill
D. Judd
KSL
Closing Ceremonies
CIRP
•Ceremonies Begin•6-7 PM Calm
• Balloons and Fireworks
•8:30-9:05 PM Calm
• Set-Up•4-5 PM Lightning
•Post Ceremony Cold Front•9:20 PM Gust to 21 mph•9:45 PM Gust to 41 mph
Forecast Results
• Overall, forecasts were excellent, according to customers.
• Superb data sets and wide range of models available to experienced forecasters who coordinated well.
• Had high resolution analyses/forecasts.• MM5/MOS forecasts for venues were quite
accurate.• Detailed, precise forecasts for
Opening/Closing Ceremonies were exceptionally good.
LEGACIES
• More observations and new forecast tools
• Better understanding of winter weather in complex terrain as a result of research & experience
• Will result in better forecasts in mountain regions well after the Olympics
• Model of multi-sector cooperation
Ongoing scientific issues
• QPF!!!– When, where, how much
• Highway surface modeling/guidance
• Air quality during cold pools/inversions
• For additional information: BAMS Feb 2002