NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY Hazards briefing for Severe Weather and Flash

Flood Potential Today through Thursday 6:00 a.m. July 2nd , 2014

Meteorologists: Ted Champney and Mark Pellerito

FOR CENTRAL NY This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton, and Oneonta.

FOR NORTHEAST PA This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre.

This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton

Service Area only:

Hazards Summary • A few severe thunderstorms occurred

Tuesday with sporadic wind damage reports (mainly Central NY). However, the ingredients for severe weather are better today areawide, compared to Tuesday.

• TODAY: Primary threats are for damaging winds and some large hail. Localized Flash Flooding, and even an isolated tornado, cannot be ruled out. Main Timing: Late Morning through Afternoon.

• THURSDAY: A front will stall out in our vicinity, while interacting with an indirect feed of moisture from what is now Tropical Storm Arthur. Some potential for Thunderstorms with Flash Flooding Thursday depending on how things evolve, especially (but not limited to) Poconos-Catskills.

Storm Reports

Severe Risk Today/Tonight

**THIS STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK

AS OF 6:00 AM ON 7/2/14.**

A slowly moving cold front, running into a very warm and unstable air mass, is

expected produce scattered strong to severe

thunderstorms across much of the Appalachian Region.

Specific Threat Probabilities:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK

DAMAGING WINDS LARGE HAIL TORNADOES

15% 5% 5%

15%

5%

2%

• Arthur will not track over our region, but tropical moisture from this system will interact with a stalling front in our vicinity Thursday.

• Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall may occur Thursday for parts of Northeast PA/Central NY (especially Poconos-Catskills), but there is still uncertainty for which specific area will be impacted. There is some potential for Flash Flooding.

• If confidence in this threat increases, a Flash Flood Watch could be issued for the most vulnerable locations, so monitor the forecast closely. Areas that get heavy rainfall today will be especially sensitive to additional rains Thursday.

TROPICAL STORM

ARTHUR: INDIRECT IMPACTS

THURSDAY

Monitor Conditions!

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• Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov

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