Weather Discussion

5/17/2011

Forecast Competition

Amazing Snowpack

Squaw Valley

The Patterns

• http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml

The Danger: A Rapid Warmup

June 1948

Big Weekend Event

Big Rainfall Event over the NW

• Weekend Totals (West Side)– Puyallup: 2.00"– North Bend: 1.96"– Federal Way: 1.95”– Sea Tac 1.79– Olympia: 1.74"– Eatonville: 1.65"– Auburn: 1.60"– Issaquah: 1.59"– Tacoma: 1.54"– Gig Harbor: 1.52"– Bainbridge Isl: 1.50"– Maple Valley: 1.48"– Bellevue: 1.42"– Renton: 1.36"– Kent: 1.34"– Covington: 1.33"– Bothell: 1.31"– Mercer Island: 1.25"– Everett: 1.15"– Redmond: 1.11"– Sequim: 1.09"– Shoreline: 0.98"

Lots of Daily Records Set on Saturday and Sunday

• RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA127 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.97 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.54 SET IN 2001.

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.67 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE WA WFO YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.34 SET IN 2001.

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.93 INCHES WAS SET AT OLYMPIA WA AIRPORT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.83 SET IN 2001.

• RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE, WA623 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.81 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.56 SET IN 2001.

East Side• RECORD REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA117 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2011

THE PRECIPITATION AT WENATCHEE AIRPORT IN THE PAST 24 HOURSWAS 0.61 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATIONFOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.16 INCHES WAS SET IN 1980.RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE 1959.

THE PRECIPITATION AT EPHRATA IN THE PAST 24 HOURSWAS 0.53 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATIONFOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.29 INCHES WAS SET IN 1978.RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE 1948.

• RECORD REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA118 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2011

THE PRECIPITATION AT WENATCHEE AIRPORT IN THE PAST 24 HOURSWAS 0.84 INCHES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE MOST PRECIPITATIONFOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 0.08 INCHES WAS SET IN 2005.RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AT THIS SITE SINCE 1959.

• RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR

138 AM PDT MNN MAY 16 2011 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PENDLETON OREGON... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 0.72 INCH WAS SET AT PENDLETON OR YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.7 SET IN 1894. STATION PREVIOUS NEW RECORDS RECORD/YEAR RECORD BEGAN PENDLETON OR 0.7 / 1894 0.72 1890

Big Rainfall Event Last Weekend: Excellent Forecasts and Great Predictability

• Dmodeldt:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?mm5d2_wa_pcp24+v2011051600///+-st

• UWME Ensemble Systemhttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ens/view_wrf.cgi1312 initializationProb

• Probcast: Bayesian Model Averaging post-processing of UWME

• http://www.probcast.com/

• NAEFS:• http://www.meteo.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/EPSgrams_e.html

Probcast: Sat Night: Prob of Precip

Quite a bit of lightning on the east side

• http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ltnw+/4d/

The Forecast

• http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml