Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 1900

Weather BriefingWeather Briefingforfor

The 2013 Presidential InaugurationThe 2013 Presidential InaugurationNOAA / National Weather ServiceNOAA / National Weather Service

Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast OfficeBaltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

January 21, 2013January 21, 20131900 UTC / 2:00 PM EST1900 UTC / 2:00 PM EST

Steven ZubrickSteven ZubrickScience and Operations OfficerScience and Operations Officer

OutlineOutline

• Weather Hazards Weather Hazards • Current Observations/RadarCurrent Observations/Radar• Forecast OverviewForecast Overview• Forecast Tables and GraphsForecast Tables and Graphs• Reagan and Dulles METAR & TAFReagan and Dulles METAR & TAF• Illumination DataIllumination Data• Space WeatherSpace Weather• Dispersion ModelingDispersion Modeling• Summary of Weather HazardsSummary of Weather Hazards• Briefing ScheduleBriefing Schedule

1/21/2013 2 PM EST 2NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

Weather HazardsWeather Hazards1600 UTC 21 Jan – 1200 UTC 22 Jan 20131600 UTC 21 Jan – 1200 UTC 22 Jan 2013

for Washington, D.C.for Washington, D.C.

30% chance of a snow squall 30% chance of a snow squall (Sometime between 5:00 PM and 09:00 PM today)(Sometime between 5:00 PM and 09:00 PM today)

•Arctic cold front may produce a snow squall that Arctic cold front may produce a snow squall that could produce up to 1 inch of snow.could produce up to 1 inch of snow.

Gusty Winds Gusty Winds (30 mph tonight, 35 mph Tuesday)(30 mph tonight, 35 mph Tuesday) •Small Craft Advisory for the Potomac starts at Noon Small Craft Advisory for the Potomac starts at Noon today. today. •Wind chills will drop below 20 after midnight, and will Wind chills will drop below 20 after midnight, and will fall to the upper single digits by dawn Tuesday.fall to the upper single digits by dawn Tuesday.

3NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

1/21/2013 2 PM EST

1/21/2013 2 PM EST NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

4

Regional Radar/Surface Mosaic 1800 UTC 21 Jan 2013

1/21/2013 2 PM EST NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

5

Regional Visible Satellite1745 UTC 21 Jan 2013

Forecast OverviewForecast Overviewfor Washington, D.C.for Washington, D.C.


Normals: High: 43F Low: 28F

1/21/2013 2 PM EST

1/21/2013 11 AM EST NWS Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office

7

Weather Element ForecastWeather Element Forecastfor Washington, D.C.for Washington, D.C.


1/21/2013 2 PM EST

DayHour(LST)

Mon12

Mon13

Mon14

Mon15

Mon16

Mon17

Mon18

Temp/Dwpt(F) 42/19 43/20 44/21 44/22 43/23 40/23 37/22

Weather NO NO NO NO S- S- SW-

Probabilityof Pcpn -- -- SCHC SCHC SCHC SCHC CHC

SnowCover N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SkyCover BKN BKN BKN SCT SCT SCT SCTWindDirSpeed/Gust(mph)

SE12/15

S13/17

S14/17

S14/17

S14/18

SW16/21

W20/23

WindChill(F) 33 37 38 38 36 32 27

PotomacTemp(F) 42F 42F 42F 42F 42F 42F 42F

MixingHeight(ft) 3400 3900 5200 6500 7300 6600 5300

Visibility(mi) 10 10 10 10 10 5 5PotomacWaveHeight(ft) 0.8 1 1 1 1 1 1

KDCA METAR & TAFKDCA METAR & TAFRonald Reagan National AirportRonald Reagan National Airport

METAR

METAR KDCA 211752Z 18006KT 10SM BKN100 06/M07 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP146 T00561067 10056 20006 58048

TAF

KDCA 211739Z 2118/2218 17011KT P6SM OVC080

FM212200 22013KT P6SM OVC070

FM212300 27015KT P6SM OVC060

FM220300 30019G27KT P6SM SCT200


1/21/2013 2 PM EST

KIAD METAR & TAFKIAD METAR & TAFDulles International AirportDulles International Airport

METAR

METAR KIAD 211752Z 16008KT 10SM OVC090 04/M06 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP138 T00391061 10039 21011 58048

TAF

KIAD 211739Z 2118/2224 18011KT P6SM OVC080

FM212000 22012KT P6SM OVC060

FM212200 28015G23KT P6SM BKN050

FM220300 30018G27KT P6SM SCT150

FM222300 30011KT P6SM FEW250


1/21/2013 2 PM EST

Date SR SS MR MS Lunar Illumination (%)19-Jan-13 1223Z/0723L 2215Z/1715L 1639Z/1139L 20/0653Z-20/0153L 60%20-Jan-13 1223Z/0723L 2216Z/1716L 1716Z/1216L 21/0748Z-21/0248L 69%21-Jan-13 1222Z/0722L 2217Z/1717L 1756Z/1256L 22/0841Z-22/0341L 77%22-Jan-13 1222Z/0722L 2218Z/1718L 1840Z/1340L 23/0930Z-23/0430L 84%23-Jan-13 1221Z/0721L 2219Z/1719L 1929Z/1429L 24/1016Z-24/0516L 91%24-Jan-13 1220Z/0720L 2221Z/1721L 2021Z/1521L 25/1058Z-25/0558L 95%25-Jan-13 1220Z/0720L 2222Z/1722L 2117Z/1617L 26/1136Z-26/0636L 98%

Illumination DataIllumination DataWashington, D.C.Washington, D.C.


1/21/2013 2 PM EST

Space Weather Summary/Forecast

Space Weather Activity

Summary Forecast

Past 48 Hours

CurrentNext 24 Hours

Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (R Scale) None None R1 – Slight

Chance

Solar Radiation Storms (S Scale) None None None

Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) None None None

Joint NOAA/USAFSpace Weather Briefing

Jan. 21, 2013 - 1800 UTC

Summary/Forecast Details:•Region 1654 continues to decay and will begin to rotate off the disk on 21 January.•Currently quiet across S and G scales •Overall threat of significant space weather activity is low

12

1638

1640

1642

Geomagnetic Storms

1644

1641

Solar Flare Radio Blackouts

Phenomena Reference/Impacts

Joint NOAA/USAFSpace Weather Briefing

Jan. 21, 2013 - 1800 UTC

Solar Flare Radio Blackout (R Scale):•No advance warning•Effects lasts for 10’s of minutes to several hours•Impacts High Frequency (HF) communication on the sunlit side of the Earth•First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

Solar Radiation Storm (S Scale):•Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale•Elevated levels can persist for several days•Impacts to the health and operation of satellites and International Space Station operations and crew•Impacts High Frequency communication in the polar regions, affecting commercial airline operations

Geomagnetic Storm (G Scale):•Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth range from just under a day to several days (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) •In extreme storms, impacts to power grid operations and stability •Impacts to Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy and availability•Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48

Complete NOAA Space Weather Scale information available online at: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/


HYSPLIT DISPERSION MODELHYSPLIT DISPERSION MODEL12Z NAM 1/21/1312Z NAM 1/21/13

Release at 1700Z 21 Jan 2013 (NAM)Release at 1700Z 21 Jan 2013 (NAM) Release at 2300Z 21 Jan 2013 (NAM)Release at 2300Z 21 Jan 2013 (NAM)

1/21/2013 2 PM EST

AlwaysAlwaysup to dateup to date

NOAA/NWSNOAA/NWSBaltimore/WashingtonBaltimore/Washington

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/washingtonhttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/washington


1/21/2013 2 PM EST

SummarySummary

• Inauguration Day:Inauguration Day: • Mostly cloudy and mild, but cooler than yesterdayMostly cloudy and mild, but cooler than yesterday

• Turning cold in the eveningTurning cold in the evening

• 30% chance of a snow squall after 5 P.M.30% chance of a snow squall after 5 P.M.• This could produce a quick accumulation of snow from a dusting to one-half This could produce a quick accumulation of snow from a dusting to one-half

inch.inch.

• Monday Night: Monday Night: • 30% chance of a snow squall remains until 10 P.M.30% chance of a snow squall remains until 10 P.M.

• Then clearing and cold Then clearing and cold

• Gusty northwest winds to 30 mphGusty northwest winds to 30 mph

• Lows by dawn in the lower 20s Lows by dawn in the lower 20s

• Wind chills by dawn in the upper single numbersWind chills by dawn in the upper single numbers


1/21/2013 2 PM EST

Briefing ScheduleBriefing Schedule• T-7 days: Tue Jan 15 1500 ESTT-7 days: Tue Jan 15 1500 EST• T-6 days: Wed Jan 16 1500 ESTT-6 days: Wed Jan 16 1500 EST• T-4 days: Thu Jan 17 1500 ESTT-4 days: Thu Jan 17 1500 EST• T-3 days: Fri Jan 18 1500 EST T-3 days: Fri Jan 18 1500 EST • T-2 days: Sat Jan 19 1500 ESTT-2 days: Sat Jan 19 1500 EST• T-1.5 Day: Sat Jan 19 2200 ESTT-1.5 Day: Sat Jan 19 2200 EST• T-1 Day: Sun Jan 20 1500 EST T-1 Day: Sun Jan 20 1500 EST • T-14 hours: Sun Jan 20 2200 ESTT-14 hours: Sun Jan 20 2200 EST• T-12 hours: Mon Jan 21 0000 ESTT-12 hours: Mon Jan 21 0000 EST• T-9 hours: Mon Jan 21 0300 EST (if needed)T-9 hours: Mon Jan 21 0300 EST (if needed)• T-6 hours: Mon Jan 21 0600 ESTT-6 hours: Mon Jan 21 0600 EST• T-3 hours: Mon Jan 21 0900 ESTT-3 hours: Mon Jan 21 0900 EST• T-1 hour: Mon Jan 21 1100 EST• T+2 hour: Mon Jan 21 1400 ESTT+2 hour: Mon Jan 21 1400 EST• T+5 hour: Mon Jan 21 1700 ESTT+5 hour: Mon Jan 21 1700 EST

Other times / dates as needed or requestedOther times / dates as needed or requested


1/21/2013 2 PM EST

Next Scheduled BriefingNext Scheduled Briefing

2200 UTC/ 5:00 PM EST 2200 UTC/ 5:00 PM EST

Mon 21 Jan 2013Mon 21 Jan 2013

Thank you for your participation!Thank you for your participation!


1/21/2013 2 PM EST

Documents

Weather Briefing for The 2013 Presidential Inauguration NOAA / National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington Weather Forecast Office January 21, 2013 1900