Weather and ice information as a tool for arctic marine ... and ice information as a tool for arctic marine and offshore services ... • Summary and conclusions . ... – Operations

Weather and ice information as a tool for

arctic marine and offshore services

World Meteorological Organization Executive Council

Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services

President & CEO Tero Vauraste

8.2.2012 1 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd

AGENDA


• Company overview • Our customers and their needs – what do we do? • Weather services as a planning tool • Long, mid and short term planning

• Baltic – current services • Arctic – new service needs

• Alaskan operation 2012-2014 • Overview and requirements

• Summary and conclusions

We are a leading producer of Baltic icebreaking, arctic ice management and

offshore services.

Arctia Shipping Ltd is a shipping company, which provides icebreaking, ice management, arctic offshore, oil recovery and archipelago commuter services.


Customers and Arctia

Baltic icebreaking • The end users are the Finnish industry

and shipping companies – The operation is based on the

agreements between Arctia and the Finnish Transport Agency

• 5+2 icebreakers • 1000-3500 assignments / year • 250-1000 operating days / year • 150 persons • Turnover +/-30 m€

Global – arctic offshore

• Customers are international energy and construction companies

• 3 multipurpose vessels • 150 persons • 400-800 operating days / year • Turnover 20-40m€


Customers and Arctia

Oil Spill Response • Client: European Maritime Safety Agency

EMSA • Customer potential:

• The Finnish environmental authorities

• International oil companies • Conversions of the current fleet and

newbuildings • Turnover 0,6-0,8m€ / y

Archipelago traffic • Customer is Centre for Economic

Development, Transport and the Environment • End users are archipelago inhabitants and

tourists • No fees for the users • 11 vessels • 120 000 vehicles / y • 230 000 passengers / y • 50 persons • Turnover 7m€ / y


Icebreakers and multipurpose icebreakers The icebreaker and multipurpose vessel fleet


• The majority of customers are

either oil and gas or offshore companies

– Participation in ice tests in Spitsbergen area

– Operations in western Greenland area

– Operations in eastern Greenland area

– Operations in Alaska

• EXAMPLES OF ASSIGNMENTS

• icebreaking • Ice management • offshore construction • hoistings • operation as mother ship - diving • anchor handling • pipe laying • cable work


Customers and their needs

(C) Arctia Shipping ltd

The need for weather services

…is to avoid this from taking place

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Long term, mid term and short term planning

Long term planning • Climate developments during the forthcoming decades

• Ice conditions development globally and locally • Fleet investment is a long term decision for the next 3-4 decades • We need to foresee the developments in order to invest into a correct

fleet type • Example: FMI-Arctia climate change study


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Longterm planning Baltic Ice coverage predictions

• The Finnish Meterological institute has made a reserach in autumn 2010 for Arctia concerning the proposed development of the Baltic Sea ice coverage

• The purpose of the study is to evaluate the future needs of next

icebreaker generation in light of the proposed ice conditions


Research model

• The study was based on the temperature sum model • Historical data was based on years 1971-2000 and 1951-2000 • The future scenarios were based on different scenarios of global

emission reduction • The future modelling looked into years 2010 – 2050


Jääpeitteen laajuuden jakauma 1951-2000

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Jääpeitteen laajuus (km2)

Osu

us (%

)The maximum ice coverage 1951-2000

Very mild Mild Average Severe Very

severe


The changes in the ice thickness

The average maximum ice thickness based on temperature sum model within the coastal region in 1971-2000


The average thickness through the next decades

8.2.2012 (C) Arctia Shipping ltd

151

Conclusions - Ice coverage:

- The severe winters will be less during the next decades

- After 2040 there are no more severe winters

-The amount of mild and very mild winters will increase

-Ice thickness:

- After 2020 the average ice thickness will be 15-20 cm lower than during 1971-2000

- After 2040 the average ice thickness will be 25-35 cm lower than during 1971-2000.

- The Southern Baltic will no longer have an ice coverage

Long term, mid term and short term planning

Mid term planning • The most difficult part with a high significance

• Fleet and resource planning for an operational period of 1-6 months

within the operation area • Challenging to forecast, but of high importance • No pratctical solutions found yet • High significance in resource allocation


Long term, mid term and short term planning Short term planning • Predictions of the operational conditions for the next 0-7 days

• Weather, ice, drifts, (current)

• Resource allocation and traffic restrictions

• Preparation of the fleet and the crews

• Good models in use for the Baltic Sea

• Lack of infrastructure for forecasting in the arctic area

• How to bring the good models to the arctic and antarctic

• Weather conditions

• Wetaher and ice conditions and their predicted developments • Drift of icebergs



Finland

Sweden


Finland

Sweden

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A practical approach Case study

SHELL ALASKA MARINE SUPPORT PLAN – 2012 The operation, ice conditions and required

weather services

8.2.2012 23


OVERVIEW 2012

History • In 1980’s Shell Exploration drilled :

- 25 Wells Beaufort - 4 Wells in Chukchi


Noble Discoverer, source, www.shipsotting.com

Kulluk, source, www.icetech12.org

2012 Plan

• Drilling Season 1st July to 31st October • Wells: 3 Chukchi 2 Beaufort

LOCATIONS & DISTANCES

Dutch to Beaufort = 6.5 days/9kts Dutch to Chukchi = 5 days/9kts

BARROW DEADHORSE

POINT HOPE

PORT CLARENCE

NOME

ANCHORAGE

DUTCH HARBOR

BEAUFORT SEA

CHUKCHI SEA

ARCTIC OCEAN

WAINWRIGHT


Primary Ice Management “Nordica” / “Fennica”

• Length – 116m / 380ft • Ice Class – DNV POLAR 10 • 20,400hp • BP 234T


8.2.2012 27

Source: Cryosphere today

Changes in conditions in the Alaskan area

No fast ice during the summer

Drifting ice fields and icebergs

Satellite image

forecasting?


Beaufort Sea • Beaufort Sea Gyro

brings multi year ice during summer season towards the northern coastline

• Large floes of sea ice

and icebergs during summer – Sea ice and iceberg

drift forecasting 0-7 days • First

year/multiyear


Esittäjä

Esityksen muistiinpanot

Beaufort Sea, North of Alaska, is completely covered by ice, first year and multi year ice in winter. [NÄYTÄ] On this picture, taken in early spring, the dark areas are open water between Alaska in the south and the ice edge. The Beaufort Sea Gyro brings a lot of multi year ice during summer season. Large floes of sea ice and icebergs during summer. Navigation is possible mainly outside winter season. Our multipurpose icebreaker NORDICA will spend next summer season in this are in ice management duties! NOE WE HAVE SEEN THAT ESPECIALLY ARCTIC SEA AREAS HAVE A LOT OF ICE!

8.2.2012 29

ICEBERG TOWING


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ICEFIELD PROTECTION AND FLUSHING


Summary and conclusions

• Three dimensions of forecasting needed for resource and operational planning and safety – Long term – decades – Mid term – seasonal – Short term – 0-14 days

• Baltic models to be multiplied to the arctic areas – Ice charts – Satellite images – Icing

• Weather and ice field+iceberg movement forecasting – First year / multiyear – Ice packing predictions

• Drift calculations in SAR and spill situations


Documents

Weather and ice information as a tool for arctic marine ... and ice information as a tool for arctic marine and offshore services ... • Summary and conclusions . ... – Operations