“Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel

Dodge/Fond du Lac Forage Council – 20 Jun 2012Dodge/Fond du Lac Forage Council – 20 Jun 2012 11

““Weather 101” – or Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel Beyond the Weather Channel

Edward J. Hopkins, PhDEdward J. Hopkins, PhDAssistant Wisconsin State ClimatologistAssistant Wisconsin State Climatologist

Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesDept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesUniversity of Wisconsin-MadisonUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison

20 June 201220 June 2012

Dodge & Fond du Lac County Forage Council Dodge & Fond du Lac County Forage Council

Twilight MeetingTwilight Meeting University of Wisconsin-ExtensionUniversity of Wisconsin-Extension

Mayville, WIMayville, WI


Differences between Weather & ClimateDifferences between Weather & Climate

““Climate is what you expect, weather is Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.”what you get.”

Weather is –Weather is –– WeatherWeather ( (“weder”“weder”) ) – State of atmosphere at a given place or State of atmosphere at a given place or

time.time. Climate is –Climate is –

– ClimateClimate ( (“klima”“klima”))– Typical conditions & extremes for a Typical conditions & extremes for a

local.local.


SeeSee http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/pdf/newsletter/Spring_2012_Vol4_Iss1.pdf

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/poe_index.php?lead=1&var=t

The group will certainly be different than the 2005 group. I would suggest building the topic as close to the weather The group will certainly be different than the 2005 group. I would suggest building the topic as close to the weather conditions that are we are currently experiencing. The summer solstice is a great point from which to begin. What conditions that are we are currently experiencing. The summer solstice is a great point from which to begin. What has happened prior to that point (known) to predicting what will happen in the rest of the growing season. I think has happened prior to that point (known) to predicting what will happen in the rest of the growing season. I think that growing degree days is a great indicator of what has happened weather-wise and what is needed to make a that growing degree days is a great indicator of what has happened weather-wise and what is needed to make a successful crop from that point on. (Just a suggestion for a point from which to start.)successful crop from that point on. (Just a suggestion for a point from which to start.)

My nephew (who says that he had you for a class at UW and now works at The Weather Channel) says that My nephew (who says that he had you for a class at UW and now works at The Weather Channel) says that Monsanto has contracted with TWC as a partnership in developing new hybrids. He is tight-lipped on what that is Monsanto has contracted with TWC as a partnership in developing new hybrids. He is tight-lipped on what that is about, but perhaps you would have some insight into this as well.about, but perhaps you would have some insight into this as well.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/gdd.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/grodgree.txt


Extreme rain events in Midwest double over last 50 years -- The non-profit Rocky Mountain Climate Extreme rain events in Midwest double over last 50 years -- The non-profit Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council recently released a study entitled "Doubled Organization and the Natural Resources Defense Council recently released a study entitled "Doubled Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms," revealing a dramatic increase in the number of major Trouble: More Midwestern Extreme Storms," revealing a dramatic increase in the number of major precipitation events that produce deadly and costly flooding across eight Midwestern States (Illinois, precipitation events that produce deadly and costly flooding across eight Midwestern States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) over the last half century. Rainstorms producing Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) over the last half century. Rainstorms producing three or more inches in 24 hours increased by 103 percent between 1961 and 2011. [The Rocky Mountain three or more inches in 24 hours increased by 103 percent between 1961 and 2011. [The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization] http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htmClimate Organization] http://www.rockymountainclimate.org/reports_3.htm


COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE& CLIMATE

WeatherWeather– Current Weather Observational DataCurrent Weather Observational Data– Weather MapsWeather Maps– Weather ForecastsWeather Forecasts


MADISON’S CURRENT WEATHERMADISON’S CURRENT WEATHERMadison Weather at 1000 AM CST MON 21 FEB 2005 Updated twice an hour at :05 and :25

Sky/WeatherSky/Weather CLOUDY CLOUDY TemperatureTemperature 32°F 32°FDew PointDew Point 22°F 22°FRelative Humidity 66%Relative Humidity 66%

Wind NW 8 mphWind NW 8 mph Pressure 1014.9 mb (29.97 in)Pressure 1014.9 mb (29.97 in)


TODAY’S NATIONAL WEATHERTODAY’S NATIONAL WEATHER


TOMORROW’S NATIONAL WEATHERTOMORROW’S NATIONAL WEATHER


COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER COMPARISONS BETWEEN WEATHER & CLIMATE& CLIMATE

WeatherWeather– Current Weather Observational DataCurrent Weather Observational Data– Weather MapsWeather Maps– Weather ForecastsWeather Forecasts

Climate Climate – Long-term statisticsLong-term statistics– Climate maps & chartsClimate maps & charts– Long Range Forecasts/OutlooksLong Range Forecasts/Outlooks


SummerSummerSolstice on 21 JuneSolstice on 21 June

Highest average temperaturesHighest average temperaturesIn mid JulyIn mid July


From From National National Climatic Climatic

Data Data CenterCenter


Anomaly = actual current T - long term average TAnomaly = actual current T - long term average T


Summer (JJA) 2012 OutlookSummer (JJA) 2012 OutlookFrom From NOAA Climate Prediction CenterNOAA Climate Prediction Center

Temperature OutlookTemperature Outlook Precipitation OutlookPrecipitation Outlook

Ed

Done


Differences between Weather and Differences between Weather and ClimateClimate

““Climate is what you expect, weather is Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”what you get”

Weather is –Weather is –– State of atmosphere at a given place or State of atmosphere at a given place or

time.time. Climate is –Climate is –

– Typical conditions & extremesTypical conditions & extremes What’s the bottom line?What’s the bottom line?

– Be able to react and cope with each.Be able to react and cope with each.


Weather/Climate ForecastingWeather/Climate Forecasting

Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Some folklore has scientific meritSome folklore has scientific merit

– Red sunsets/sunrisesRed sunsets/sunrises

– RainbowsRainbows

– HaloesHaloes


Red skies (or sails):Red skies (or sails):Red sails at night, sailors delight,Red sails at night, sailors delight,

Red sails at morning, sailors take warningRed sails at morning, sailors take warning


RainbowsRainbowsIf seen in evening, fair weather aheadIf seen in evening, fair weather ahead

But, unsettled weather when seen in morning.But, unsettled weather when seen in morning.


Halo PhenomenaHalo PhenomenaUsually indicates precipitation within 48 hours Usually indicates precipitation within 48 hours


FolkloreFolklore

Some folklore has scientific meritSome folklore has scientific merit

– Red sunsets/sunrisesRed sunsets/sunrises

– RainbowsRainbows

– HaloesHaloes But others do notBut others do not

– Groundhog Day Groundhog Day


Groundhog DayGroundhog Day If Candlemas be fair and bright,If Candlemas be fair and bright,

Winter has another flight.Winter has another flight.If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,Winter will not come again.Winter will not come again.

Six more weeks of winterSix more weeks of winter

Early spring?Early spring?

Jimmy the Groundhog of Sun Prairie did not see his shadow on 2 Feb 2005!


AlmanacsAlmanacs

Forecasts derived from “a secret Forecasts derived from “a secret formula”formula”– devised by Almanac founder devised by Almanac founder

Robert B. Thomas in 1792Robert B. Thomas in 1792– He believed that weather was He believed that weather was

influenced by sunspots. influenced by sunspots. – Today they employ 3 “scientific Today they employ 3 “scientific

disciplines” to make long-range disciplines” to make long-range predictions: predictions:

solar sciencesolar science climatologyclimatology meteorologymeteorology

– ““our results are almost always our results are almost always very close to our traditional very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.”claim of 80 percent.”


What “The Old Farmers Almanac” ThinksWhat “The Old Farmers Almanac” Thinks(Nov 2004-Oct 2005)(Nov 2004-Oct 2005)

Above average Dec Temp & precip

Above average Dec Temp & precip


Warm west, chilly east


Dry west, wet east



Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends


Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends

Forecast future event based upon a Forecast future event based upon a current condition or trend:current condition or trend:

– What happened yesterday or What happened yesterday or today, will happen tomorrow. today, will happen tomorrow.

– OrOr

– Move weather systems along with Move weather systems along with same speed.same speed.


TrendsTrends


NowcastsNowcasts


Current Drought ConditionsCurrent Drought Conditions


Climate Outlook (Forecast)Climate Outlook (Forecast)

Edward J. Hopkins

CURRENT



Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs


AnalogAnalog

This weather pattern (storm) looks This weather pattern (storm) looks like a previous system.like a previous system.

– Keep file of old weather maps Keep file of old weather maps

– Forecast based upon behavior of Forecast based upon behavior of previous storm.previous storm.


SS Edmund Fitgerald – SS Edmund Fitgerald – “The Pride of the American side”“The Pride of the American side”



Comparison Comparison between between

10 Nov 1975 10 Nov 1975 & &

10 Nov 1998 10 Nov 1998 StormsStorms(From (From

Ackerman & Ackerman & Knox)Knox)



Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs Single Station ForecastingSingle Station Forecasting


Weather Conditions around Weather Conditions around Mid latitude Storm systemMid latitude Storm system


Weather along Storm TracksWeather along Storm Tracks(A) Warm Side(A) Warm Side vs. vs. (B) Cold side (B) Cold side


Weather Conditions on the Weather Conditions on the Warm Side of StormWarm Side of Storm


Weather Conditions on Cold Weather Conditions on Cold Side of stormSide of storm



Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs Single Station ForecastingSingle Station Forecasting ClimatologyClimatology


Using ClimatologyUsing Climatology

Record Highs

Record Lows










Probability Forecast based on Probability Forecast based on ClimatologyClimatology

Madison: 2 of 3 or 67%Green Bay: 3 of 4 or 77%Wausau: 9 of 10 or 93%



Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs Single Station ForecastingSingle Station Forecasting ClimatologyClimatology Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction


Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction

Developed in last 50 yearsDeveloped in last 50 years Run on super computersRun on super computers Use Equations that employ:Use Equations that employ:

– Newton’s Laws of MotionNewton’s Laws of Motion

– Conservation of mass & energyConservation of mass & energy

– Gas laws & thermodynamicsGas laws & thermodynamics


Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather PredictionMaking a grid of initial dataMaking a grid of initial data

40 km 40 km50 levels


Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction Applying the Equations of Atmospheric MotionApplying the Equations of Atmospheric Motion



Time steps on order

of minutes



Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Jet Stream Level WindsJet Stream Level Winds

From Hydrometeorological From Hydrometeorological Prediction CenterPrediction Center


Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Short Range (24-hr) Forecast of Surface Weather SystemsSurface Weather Systems

From Hydrometeorological From Hydrometeorological Prediction CenterPrediction Center


24-hr Quantitative Precipitation Forecast24-hr Quantitative Precipitation ForecastValid 6 PM tonightValid 6 PM tonight

From Hydrometeorological Prediction CenterFrom Hydrometeorological Prediction Center


COMPARISON OF FORECASTS OVER TIME


Medium Range

Forecast3-7 Day From HPC

Wed AM Thurs AM Fri AM

Sat AM Sun AM


Medium Range

Outlook8-14 Day from

HPC

Temp Prob – Next Mon thru Sun

Precip Prob – Next Mon thru Sun



Types of NWP ModelsTypes of NWP Models

– NowcastsNowcasts

– Short termShort term

– Medium RangeMedium Range

– OutlooksOutlooks



Effects of Above Average SST on Effects of Above Average SST on North AmericaNorth America


Effect of El NiEffect of El Niñño o


Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST Variation in Equatorial Pacific SST 1930-20001930-2000

1997-981997-981982-831982-83

1991-931991-931994-951994-95

1986-871986-87

Recent Major El NiñoRecent Major El NiñoWarm Phase EpisodesWarm Phase Episodes


Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies Last FallLast Fall

in Celsius degreesin Celsius degrees (Current - Average SST values)(Current - Average SST values) NOAA-NESDISNOAA-NESDIS


Recent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) AnomaliesRecent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies in Celsius degreesin Celsius degrees (Current - Average SST values)(Current - Average SST values) NOAA-NESDISNOAA-NESDIS


Monthly Outlook for March 2005Monthly Outlook for March 2005from NOAA Climatic Prediction Center (CPC)from NOAA Climatic Prediction Center (CPC)



Mar 2005

Spring 2005

Monthly Monthly & &

Seasonal Seasonal OutlookOutlook

From From CPCCPC




Contact InformationContact Information

Ed HopkinsEd Hopkins [email protected]

State Climatology OfficeState Climatology Office1225 W. Dayton St.,1225 W. Dayton St.,Madison, WI 53706Madison, WI 53706 http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~scohttp://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco


ANNUAL GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATUREANNUAL GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATUREfor Instrumental Period of Recordfor Instrumental Period of Record



See Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)See Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)

1997-981997-981982-831982-83

1991-931991-931994-951994-95

1986-871986-87

Recent Major El NiñoRecent Major El NiñoWarm Phase EpisodesWarm Phase Episodes


WHAT’S INVOLVEDWHAT’S INVOLVED

Long-term “Normal” ConditionsLong-term “Normal” Conditions– Atmospheric Component:Atmospheric Component:

Semi-permanent Pressure Patterns;Semi-permanent Pressure Patterns; Wind Circulation Regime;Wind Circulation Regime; Precipitation Patterns.Precipitation Patterns.

– Oceanic Component:Oceanic Component: Large-Scale Ocean Circulation;Large-Scale Ocean Circulation; Upwelling;Upwelling; Sea-surface temperature patterns;Sea-surface temperature patterns; Thermocline.Thermocline.


Average Air Pressure & Average Air Pressure & Atmospheric CirculationAtmospheric Circulation


OCEAN CURRENTSOCEAN CURRENTS


UPWELLING along South American CoastUPWELLING along South American Coast See Figures 9.21& 9.22 Moran (2002)See Figures 9.21& 9.22 Moran (2002)

Fig. 9.22 - Ekman SpiralFig. 9.22 - Ekman Spiral Fig. 9.21 - Resulting Fig. 9.21 - Resulting UpwellingUpwelling



See Figure 9.23 A, Moran (2002)See Figure 9.23 A, Moran (2002)


Effect of El NiEffect of El Niñño o


See Figure 9.23 B, Moran (2002)See Figure 9.23 B, Moran (2002)


Effects of SST on North AmericaEffects of SST on North Americasee Figure 9.24, Moran (2002)see Figure 9.24, Moran (2002)


El Niño El Niño TeleconnectionsTeleconnections

see also Figure 9.24, see also Figure 9.24, Moran (2002)Moran (2002)



See Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)See Figure 9.25, Moran (2002)

1998-20001998-2000

197519751995-961995-96

19881988

19731973

Recent Major La NiñaRecent Major La NiñaCold Phase EpisodesCold Phase Episodes


A Recent La Niña A Recent La Niña From NOAAFrom NOAA




La NiLa Niñña a TeleconnectionsTeleconnections



Folklore/LegendsFolklore/Legends Persistence or TrendsPersistence or Trends AnalogsAnalogs Single Station ForecastingSingle Station Forecasting ClimatologyClimatology Numerical Weather PredictionNumerical Weather Prediction StatisticalStatistical



Changing climate from Changing climate from thermometersthermometers

Around the globeAround the globe

Ed

updated


March 2012 Statewide TempMarch 2012 Statewide Temp


June 2012 OutlookJune 2012 OutlookFrom From NOAA Climate Prediction CenterNOAA Climate Prediction Center


Ed

Done

Documents

“Weather 101” – or Beyond the Weather Channel