Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
www.eupinions.eu
Catherine E. de Vries, Professor of European Politics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Isabell Hoffmann, Senior Expert, Bertelsmann Stiftung
On the 20th of June 2016, just days before the
Brexit referendum took place in the United
Kingdom (UK), we published a report "Keep
Calm and Carry On” examining how citizens in
the remaining 27 member states viewed the
possibility of the UK leaving the European Union
(EU). The results were clear: a majority of
Europeans would like the UK to have remained a
member of the EU. At the same, citizens in the
EU27 did not think that Brexit would be the end
of the EU. Since June 2016 much has
happened. Brexit turned out to be a difficult and
lengthy process. While we know that public
opinion in the United Kingdom to this day is
divided on the topic, of Brexit, what about people
in the EU27? In December 2018, we have again
polled people in the 27 remaining member states
to get a sense of how they view Brexit and how
this differs across those who feel close to
particular political parties.
Specially, we asked to two questions, one
relating to the possible consequences of Brexit
for countries within the EU:
1. The British decided to leave the EU in
2019, what do you think best describes
the consequences the EU will face, if
eupinions brief | February 2019
We’ll be fine. How People in the EU27 View Brexit
The political drama called Brexit leaves observers in London fascinated, appalled
or exhausted. Whereas in the UK, the tension seems to intensify with every twist
and turn the British take on their way out of the European Union, Europeans on the
continent seem to be surprisingly detached. They support their country’s
membership in the EU in ever greater numbers, and calmly carry on with their daily
business. Don’t they think that they will be affected by Brexit? We decided to ask
them.
We’ll be fine. How People in the EU27 View Brexit | page 2
www.eupinions.eu
any? EU countries will be better off, EU
countries will be worse off, or there will
not be a significant change. And one
question relating to the possible
consequences of Brexit for the United
Kingdom:
2. The British decided to leave the EU in
2019, what do you think best describes
the consequences the United Kingdom
will face, if any? The UK will be better off,
the UK will be worse off, or there will not
be a significant change.
Here we detail the three main findings of our
analysis of this data:
• Like in June 2016, the citizens in the
remaining 27 member states think that
the EU countries will not be much
affected by Brexit. A majority, 61 per
cent, thinks that there will not be a
significant change in EU countries
because of Brexit. 27 per cent think that
EU countries will be worse off, while only
12 per cent EU countries will be better off
because of Brexit. The Dutch and Poles
are on average most pessimistic
about the consequences of Brexit for
EU countries. 34 and 32 per cent of
Dutch and Polish respondents
respectively think that EU countries will
be worse off, and only 50 and 54 per
cent respectively think that the situation
will remain the same.
• Interestingly, citizens in the EU27 are
much more split when it comes to
how they view the consequences of
Brexit for the UK. 31 per cent of
respondents in the EU27 think that there
will not be a significant change for the
UK, while 44 per cent that the UK will be
worse off because of Brexit, and 25 per
cent think the UK will be better off. The
German and Spanish respondents are
most pessimistic about the
consequences of Brexit for the UK. 58
and 50 per cent of German and Spanish
respondents respectively think that the
UK will be worse off because of Brexit,
while only 13 and 19 per cent
respectively think that the UK will be
better off.
• Finally, our findings show that there is
quite some variation across party
supporters, especially when it comes
to the perceived consequences of
Brexit for the UK. Those who feel close
to far-right or populist-right parties like
the Rassemblement National (former
Front National) in France or the Lega in
Italy think that the UK will be better off
because of Brexit. 59 per cent of those
who feel close to Le Pen’s
Rassemblement National or 52 per cent
of those who feel close to Salvini’s Lega
think that the UK will be better off
because of Brexit, while only 10 and 13
per cent respectively think that the UK
would be worse off.
Figure 1 below shows the distribution of answers
to the question about the consequences of Brexit
for EU countries. 61 per cent think of
respondents in the EU27 think that there will not
be a significant change in EU countries because
of Brexit. 27 per cent think that EU countries will
be worse off, while only 12 per cent think that EU
countries will be better off. The figure highlights
interesting variation across countries. The Dutch
and Poles are on average most pessimistic
about the consequences of Brexit for EU
countries: 34 and 32 per cent respectively think
that EU countries will be worse off, 16 and 14 per
cent think EU countries will be better off, and
only 50 and 54 per cent respectively think that
the situation will remain the same. In France,
Germany and Italy, a large majority of
respondents, 68 per cent, thinks that not much
will change in EU countries because of Brexit,
while 63 per cent of Spanish respondents think
the same.
We’ll be fine. How People in the EU27 View Brexit | page 3
www.eupinions.eu
Figure 1:
Figure 2 displays the answers of respondents in
the EU27 to the question what they think the
consequences of Brexit for the UK will be. 31 per
cent of respondents in the EU27 think that there
will not be a significant change for the UK, while
44 per cent that the UK will be worse off because
of Brexit, and 25 per cent think the UK will be
better off. In France and Italy, respondents are
least likely to think that Brexit will have bad
consequences for the UK, 33 and 29 per cent of
French and Italian respondents respectively think
the UK will be worse off because of Brexit. 33
percent of French and Italian respondents think
that there will not be much of a change, while 34
and 38 of French and Italian respondents think
that the UK will be better off because of Brexit.
The German and Spanish respondents are most
pessimistic about the consequences of Brexit for
the UK. 58 and 50 per cent of German and
Spanish respondents respectively think that the
UK will be worse off because of Brexit, while only
13 and 19 per cent respectively think that the UK
will be better off.
Figure 2:
Figures 3 and 4 present the same information
than figures 1 and 2, but now splits the answers
by how close people feel to particular political
parties in six member states where we
conducted more in-depth surveys. The results
suggest that those who feel close to far-right or
populist right parties are much more likely to
think that the UK will be better off because of
Brexit, see figure 4. This is perhaps the clearest
in France and Italy. Those who feel close to far-
right or populist-right parties like the
Rassemblement National (former Front National)
in France or the Lega in Italy think that the UK
will be better off because of Brexit. 59 per cent of
those who feel close to Le Pen’s
Rassemblement National or 52 per cent of those
who feel close to Salvini’s Lega think that the UK
will be better off because of Brexit, while only 10
and 13 per cent respectively think that the UK
would be worse off. Also, the majority of those
who feel close to the Alternative für Deutschland
in Germany and the Partii voor de Vrijheid or
Forum voor Democratie in the Netherlands think
that Brexit will have good consequences for the
UK. 42 per cent of those who feel close to the
Alternative für Deutschland think that the UK will
be better off because of Brexit, and 45 and 49 of
those who feel close to Partii voor de Vrijheid or
Forum voor Democratie think the same. A clear
majority of those who support centrist parties,
like President Macron’s Republique en Marche in
France (59 per cent) or Chancellor Merkel’s
Christliche Demokratische Union in Germany,
think that the UK will be worse of because of
Brexit (63 per cent).
We’ll be fine. How People in the EU27 View Brexit | page 4
www.eupinions.eu
Figure 3:
We’ll be fine. How People in the EU27 View Brexit | page 5
www.eupinions.eu
Figure 4:
We’ll be fine. How People in the EU27 View Brexit | page 6
www.eupinions.eu
Hardly anybody expected the British to vote for
Brexit. As a result, analysts and pundits have
learned to be more prudent when attempting to
predict what will happen next in London. At the
same time, continental Europeans have learned
to live with these extraordinary events and the
associated uncertainty.
...............................................................
Interested in more data on European public
opinion? Visit us at www.eupinions.eu
Data note:
The sample of n=11.735 was drawn by Dalia
Research in December 2018 across all 28 EU
Member States, taking into account current
population distributions with regard to age (14-
65 years), gender and region/country. In order
to obtain census representative results, the
data were weighted based upon the most
recent Eurostat statistics. Calculated for a
sample of this size and considering the design-
effect, the margin of error would be +/-1.1 % at
a confidence level of 95 %.
Imprint:
© February 2019
Bertelsmann Stiftung
Carl-Bertelsmann-Straße 256
33311 Gütersloh
www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de
Responsible:
Isabell Hoffmann
Phone: +49 5241 81 81313
@eupinions
