We Have Seen the Shadow

8/4/2019 We Have Seen the Shadow

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We Have Seen the Shadow, But Not the Substance Yet

By Saneitha Nagani

In Indonesia they have a kind of popular puppet shows (wayung kulit), which tell stories

adapted from the great Indian epics ofRamayana and Mahabharata. The action is depicted by

shadows projected onto the screen from flat puppets manipulated by a skilful puppeteer (dalang).

We are not Indonesian but we too have a saying that, one should see the substance even if only

when one is shown the shadow. (ayeik-pya, a-kaung-htin).

Recently before leaving Naypyidawon Saturday, Daw Aung San Suu Kyitold the reporters that she

was happy and satisfied with her an hour long meeting with President Thein Sein on Friday for the

first time. Burmese state broadcasts on Friday evening and the state newspapers on Saturday also

reported on the meeting with pictures and in particular, the footage where the two of them were

shown posing for a photo beneath the picture ofBogyoke Aung San, Daw Aung San Suu Kyis father.

The Burmese have a way of looking at politics as a very complex form of human activities. That is

why there is a saying that, Politics is like a parrot on a Banksias tree. (min-yei-ne-taing-pyi-a-yei,pauk-ne- kyei). If given the choice, ordinary people would not want to do anything with politics.

However, whether it was under the colonial rule or post independence Burma they have never been

able to disassociate themselves from politics. Like Daw Suu said, You may not be interested in

politics but politics is interested in you.

So far as what was reported in the news and from those who were in the position to comment on

the meeting was saying, Daw Suu has exchanged friendly conversations with PresidentThein Sein.

But for one hour long conversations I am sure it would not just be centered on things like, Daw Suu

telling President Thein Sein that the pattern of his pasoe would be more appropriate if it was the

pattern for women, or even she might tell him that if he really wanted exiles living overseas to

return he should try first with those former Burmese ambassadors living overseas. He might have

more success in convincing them, after all were they not the former representatives of the Burmese

government?

This reminded me of my ignorance as a provisional officer-in-training in the Political Department at

the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. At the first staff meeting the director of the division I was in asked me

about a state visit between the country that I was covering in the news. I was asked in particular

about the joint communiqu that they released at the end of the visit. I have no idea that I have to

go behind the news to really get the substance of the visit. Since I had no experience whatsoever I

answered my directors question with, they have discussions on issues that were of mutual benefit

to the two countries. Isnt it just like the exchanged of friendly conversations that took place at

the meeting between Daw Aung San Suu Kyiand the President? Doesnt makes sense to any of those

who are not familiar with the practice.

Since neither side was prepared to reveal more than what was reported in the news then we have to

just look at the shadows and find out what the substance by ourselves. I am not an analyst but I

was fortunate to be studying China in the very secretive period of the late 1960s to the late 1970s. I

could say that it was like watching wayung kulit with Chinese characteristics. First, one has to

familiarize with Whos who in China. What ideological differences existed between each key


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personality within the Chinese leadership? What is Red and Expert? What can one expect the policy

outcome to be, if and when such and such personalities leaned towards a certain position in the

factional Chinese politics? The bug stayed with me till this day.

It was indeed watching a shadow play when the talks took place soon after some ministers in the

Thein Seins regime was reported to have openly demanded that Daw Aung San Suu Kyishould stay

out of politics. In another instance the Minister for Information Kyaw Hsan was reported as saying,

In view of national reconciliation, the government is delicately and carefully handling the issue of

the NLD, which has no legal right to exist, offering it opportunities to serve the national interest in

cohesion. If the NLD wants to get involved in politics, it should set up a legal party through formal

procedures. Anyhow, the government is doing its best to invite the NLD to its national reconciliation

process. He sounded more like the person having been knocked down and lying flat on his back

but still havent stopped swearing at his opponent yet (auk-ka-lei-nei-thei, ha-hli-hler-mashaw). He

also made it clear his dislike for Daw Suu by not even having the common courtesy as a member of

the host to either welcome her or engaged with her in friendly conversation. The crying boy or the

moaning natgadaw (transvestites in Burma dressed themselves as women and acted as a go-

between man and the spirits like a Shaman in other cultures) could not restrain himself from thehatred he has towards Daw Suu. What a pitiful character?

Even though Nay Zin Latt, a member of the Burmese Presidents political advisory board, told The

Irrawaddythat from what he had heard, Daw Suu would be invited as an observer to the National

Level Workshop on Rural Development and Poverty Alleviation in Naypyidaworganized by the

Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development. The reception she received on that day

was reported to have been far grander than what an ordinary observer might expect to received.

However, in another report it was mentioned that Daw Suu was at the workshop as a special

guest of the President. She even had dinner with the President and his wife.

If the United States and China, two rival states with very different cultures, could reach out to each

other in a journey of cultural empathy, with statesmen like Americas Henry Kissinger and Chinas

Zhou Enlai, paving the way for the quasi alliance the opening of China might never have happened;

and the world would be a very different place. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, her party the National League

for Democracy (NLD) and the military are neither from a different culture nor from a different or

rival state. Both sides should, as a report in the state media The New Light of Myanmarmentioned,

try to find out the potential common grounds to cooperate in the interests of the nation and the

people while putting aside the views that are different. However, since it was mentioned that

during the one-hour talk Daw Suu was reported to have requested a meeting with Senior General

Than Shwe and Vice Senior General Maung Aye. The question that came to my mind is, Is that

because Daw Suu wanted to meet them out of courtesy or is it because she felt that Thein Sein, even

though he may be the President or Head of the State like former President San Yu under U NeWins Socialist Government he might not have the authority to make important decisions? Its too

early to tell. As the saying goes, One swallow does not make the summer, one meeting does not

make a breakthrough either.

Since there is a speculation about split in the regime and it could be a subtle probe from Daw Suu

to find out whether there is any truth in that. The diatribe from Kyaw Hsan, the Minister for

Information, Daw Aung San Suu Kyis National League for Democracy (NLD) has been dissolved by


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the government last year and it needs to register through formal procedures to obtain its renewed

legal recognition and added to that the absence of the First Vice President ex-General Thiha Thura

Tin Aung Myint Oo and Commander-in-Chief of Defense Services Major-General Min Aung Hlaing, at

face value might seem to support that all is not well between the Government led by Thein Sein and

other top leadership in the military regime. Maybe their absence was just a coincidence since they

both were in China (according to the BBC) doing their tayaah-htoke (a word play for tayoke ah-htar meaning sucking up to the Chinese). China indeed has to hedge on its bets looking at the

political landscape occurring in Burma.

Henry Kissinger took from his mentor William Yandell Elliott that, without grasping the long arc of

time, any account of politics and government would be shallow and self-defeating. In the same vein

if we ignored the history of the talks (or call it peace negotiations or even national reconciliation if

you like) the talks between the military and the Burmese Communist Party and other armed

groups in the late 1950s or early 1960s; the talks between the Karen National Union; and the talks

between various armed groups (except Karen); the talks between the Than Shwe military regime and

Daw Suu; then the talks between Minister for LiaisonAung Kyi and Daw Suu all failed dismally, we

should aware of the history of talks and their pitfalls before we can be optimistic about the recentone.

If one is to work on the concept of the analytical pyramid one could made sound assumptions as

the two sides, building the two sides on a wide base of factual information thus leading us to the

apex of which one could safely draw a conclusion. So far we do not have a sound factual base to

build on, whatever assumptions as some suggests the military regime is using Daw Suu to did

themselves out of trouble, or the regime is trying to isolate and split Daw Suu from her party and so

on are just assumptions that will not lead us to any credible conclusion. As how things are at the

moment, lets just enjoy the shadow puppet show or wayung kulit. If things are not going to

progress, like there will be no release of political prisoners or no peace with the ethnic minorities,

come 2014 the Burmese Foreign Minister Wunna Maung Lwinwould have to be chasing hiscounterpart, the Indonesian Foreign Minister, to the urinals in the toilet in order that he might be

able to break the news on the ASEAN Chairmanship just like his predecessor has done at the tea

break. END

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We Have Seen the Shadow