WDT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 10/03/2017€¦ · Threat Legend Orange –Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Red –Significant Severe Thunderstorm Threat Purple –Severe Weather

Threat LegendOrange – Strong to Severe Thunderstorms PossibleRed – Significant Severe Thunderstorm ThreatPurple – Severe Weather Outbreak (Day 1 and 2 Only)Green – Excessive Rainfall

Blue – Significant Snow/Ice

Day 1 Threat Regions Map Day 2 Threat Regions Map

WDT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 10/03/2017

Days 1 – 2 (Short Term) Threat Summary

DAY 1 NEW MEXICO: MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE

DAY 2EASTERN NEW MEXICO: EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE

OKLAHOMA: EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE

Day 3

Day 6

WDT THREATS AT A GLANCE – Days 3 Through 7 10/03/2017

Day 4

Day 5



Day 7



Day 1 – Tuesday Threat Assessments and Morning Frontal Analysis Threat Region Discussion:

New Mexico: A weak disturbance will track through the Four Corners region today, atop modest moisture return at the surface. While significant instability is not forecast to develop, sufficient wind shear and pockets of better instability may support a few marginally severe storms before dark, primarily across the eastern half of New Mexico.

Further north, a weak area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest region is forecast to lift into eastern Canada on Tuesday. Behind it, a lingering front will remain wedged between high pressure over the Central Rockies and a stronger area of high pressure draped across the Eastern US. Lingering showers and a few thunderstorms remain forecast late in the day and evening, but severe impacts are not expected. To the west and east, much of the rest of the country should remain fairly dry, with perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms across the Arklatex during the morning and late afternoon hours.



Day 2 – Wednesday Threat Assessments and Morning Frontal Analysis Threat Region Discussion:

Eastern New Mexico: A near-stationary front draped across the Central United States will remain ensconced between two areas of high pressure into Wednesday. Shower activity should be more pronounced than on Tuesday, owing to increasing moisture lifting northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This may see a small threat of minor flooding and local runoff for parts of Eastern New Mexico. Additional shower activity is expected to continue northeastward and into the Great Lakes region with minimal impacts.

Oklahoma: The same front will also result in a small threat of excessive rainfall across the state of Oklahoma. Some areas could see between one and two inches of total rainfall through early Thursday morning with a local runoff and very minor flooding possible.



Day 3 – Thursday Threat Assessments and Morning Frontal Analysis Threat Region Discussion:

Missouri Valley: A minimal threat for severe weather is forecast to continue into Thursday. warm front, which should A new area of developing low pressure is not expected to deepen much as it digs weakly southeastward during the daytime hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and south of a warm front stretching from Nebraska into Illinois. Rainfall amounts from Thursday into early Friday morning will range from 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. A threat for minor flooding and local runoff will be possible across the Missouri Valley as a result.



Day 4 – Friday Threat Assessments and Morning Frontal Analysis No Threat Regions:

No severe weather is currently forecast on Friday, but an area of low pressure over the Missouri Valley should be in the process of deepening somewhat. This will see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across the Missouri Valley and Midwest regions. Further south, increasing shower activity is also forecast across the state of Florida, although flooding impacts remain less certain.



Day 5 – Saturday Threat Assessments and Morning Frontal Analysis No Threat Regions:

High pressure is expected to build into the Central United States by the beginning of the weekend. This will push a pre-existing front southeastward while a surface low tracks through the Great Lakes region. An area of scattered showers and few thunderstorms are forecast along and ahead of the front during the day. Further south, a monsoon gyre of low pressure is forecast to lift across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This should see widespread shower activity continue across much of Florida.

Day 6 – Sunday Threat Assessments and Morning Frontal Analysis

Discussion: The first in a series of Fall-like fronts is forecast over the latter half of the weekend and into early next week across the Central US. While significant severe weather is not forecast at this time, increasing showers and thunderstorms may develop with each front’s passage. Meanwhile, model guidance is suggesting some potential for a the development of a subtropical low offshore of the Florida Coast. If this low develops, it should track northward along the Atlantic Coast with scattered showers for much of the coastal regions. Regardless of tropical development, rain will likely continue across Florida for another day or two.

Day 7 – Monday Threat Assessments and Morning Frontal Analysis

Documents

WDT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK 10/03/2017€¦ · Threat Legend Orange –Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Red –Significant Severe Thunderstorm Threat Purple –Severe Weather