WCRP/CLIVAR perspectives for ETCCDI

Howard Cattle

International CLIVAR Project Office,

National Oceanography Centre,

Southampton, UK(ETCCDI May 2008)

GEWEX 1988 2012 SPARC 19922011

WOCE 1990-2002

CLIVAR 1998 2013

TOGA 1985-1994

WGNEWGSFWGCMIPABWOAPWMP

ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000

SOLAS 2001 ->

CliC 20002015

WCRP Strategic framework 2005-15WCRP Strategic framework 2005-15Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth SystemCoordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System

Developed by the Joint Developed by the Joint Scientific Committee Scientific Committee (JSC) for WCRP, it’s (JSC) for WCRP, it’s governing bodygoverning body

Reiterates WCRP Reiterates WCRP objectives to determine objectives to determine the predictability of the predictability of climate and the effect climate and the effect of human activities on of human activities on climateclimate

Seeks to facilitate Seeks to facilitate analysis and prediction analysis and prediction of Earth System of Earth System variability and change variability and change for practical for practical applications of direct applications of direct relevance, benefit and relevance, benefit and value to societyvalue to society

WCRP Strategic Plan

WCRP Cross Cutting TopicsSeasonal PredictionMonsoonsDecadal PredictionClimate ExtremesAnthropogenic climatechangeChemistry and ClimateIPYSea level rise CLIVAR: contributions to all areas

Development of Earth System Models (with IGBP)“Seamless prediction” (across all timescales)Maintain/develop sustained observing systemIntegration of models and dataDeveloping links to applications

JSC-28 (Zanzibar, March 2007)

• Reviewed progress with the core projects, WCRP panels and working groups and in other relevant organizations (e.g WCP, IGBP)

• Reviewed initial progress of and made decisions on the“cross cutting” topics”.

• Made decisions on budget allocations: WCRP finances under severe pressure

• Agreed that the WCRP Core projects (CLIVAR, GEWEX, SPARC and CliC) should continue to their agreed “sunset dates”

• Except for ACC, agreed that the projects should provide the management focus for the cross cuts and appointed “JSC oversight groups”.

ACC

Next generation of climate change experiments including “near term prediction (decades - see below); modelling aspects of climate change detection

JSC group +WCRP Support Office, Paris

AC&C

Tropospheric & stratospheric chemistryIGAC/SPARC IPOs

Monsoons

International Monsoon Study

- Asian Monsoon years 2007-12

- Year of Tropical Convection

CLIVAR & GEWEX IPOs jointly;

Extreme climate events

Being defined - JSC-29 special sessionCLIVAR & GEWEX IPOs jointly;

Seasonal prediction (TFSP->WGSIP)

Climate System Historical Forecast ExperimentCLIVAR - WGSIP (-> ICPO support)

Decadal prediction

Near term climate prediction (decadal, to ~2030), Atlantic MOC activities

CLIVAR (WGCM/WGSIP) (-> ICPO support)

IPY WCRP contributions to IPY, including CLIVAR SO Panel’s lead in Climate of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean cluster

CliC IPO

Sea level Successful workshop; future activities tbd J Church

Outline agenda: JSC-29 Arcachon, France, 31 March-4 April 2008

1. Welcome, introduction2. Review of WCRP cross cutting activities with

special session on climate extremes (1 + 1/2 days)

3. Review of WCRP core projects (3/4 day)4. Review of WCRP WGs and Panels (WGCM, WGNE,

WOAP …) (0.4 day)5. Review of other projects and activities (ESSP,

START, THORPEX…) (1/4 day)6. Discussion of WCRP post 2013 (3/4 day)7. Executive sessions etc including budgets (1 day)8. Science lectures (1/4 day)

JSC-29 “Climate Extremes Session’’Overall goals for the session:

– Determine what steps WCRP can/should take to meet user requirements – Determine what WCRP will do to impact the research agenda on

extremes.

1. Introduction – A. Busalacchi

2. Stakeholder needs a. Stakeholder (CIRUN Workshop) meeting outcomes – T. Busalacchi – Re-insurance needs – J Slingo

3. Work of ETCCDI

4. Other WCRP research priorities vis-à-vis extremes a. CEOP – S. Sorooshian b. Drought – J. Hurrell – Modelling – T. Palmer

5. Climate Extremes cross cut - summary of proposals to date - H Cattle

6. Panel discussion on how to progress research on climate extremes and where WCRP should focus its efforts.

Objectives of the cross cut• Summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of climate

extremes and develop a common framework.• Design an intercomparison framework to assess models,

observations to evaluate changes in climate extremes• Accelerate progress on prediction of climate extremes

developing capabilities and products facilitating practical applications

• Assess and improve the observational and dataset framework for study of global extremes

• Determine how extremes are changing/varying and why. • Understand the processes controlling extreme climate• Build capacity in the interpretation of model outputs and

observational datasets with regard to climate extremes • Develop climate indices for the study and monitoring of

extremes

Issues emerging from AGU discussion(participants Lisa Alexander, Gabi Hegerl, Neville Nicholls, Simon Tett and Francis Zwiers

• The scale discrepancy between models and observations

• Improving model representations of extremes• “Internal consistency” of extremes, e.g:

– Understanding how modes of variability influence extremes– The dynamical situations leading to extremes

• “Extreme” extremes (e.g. hurricanes) and small scale weather extremes (tornadoes, hail, thunderstorms…)

• Data quality and availability• Detectability and predictability of extremes

Present WCRP extremes foci• CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI activity

– Development of new indices/develop global indices database– ETCCDI meeting (KNMI, May 2008) to include joint workshop with

ENSEMBLES (Focus on “Extremes in a changing climate” and workshop on “”issues of scaling” - how do we adequately compare observed extremes with model output?)

• Proposed near term (decadal cross cut, out to ~2030) climate experiments aims to give guidance on the changing risk of extremes

• WGCM: International detection and attribution group on design of C20 simulations for next IPCC are addressing issues related to detection of extremes

• GEWEX/CEOP extremes study: Canadian drought a focus• US CLIVAR-led activity on US drought (US focus)• GEWEX/UNESCO global heavy rainfall product at 24 & 48 hour

accumulation periods, funded by NASA, NOAA and UNESCO• Sea level extremes, sea ice extremes etc… Do we need to consider

ocean extremes?

How can we bring these together into acoordinated cross-WCRP effort, adding value?

JSC recommendations, decisions and actions - climate extremes

1. GEWEX and CLIVAR to engage each other to participate in forthcoming workshops in climate extremes.

2. Form a task force on Climate Extremes including representation not only from GEWEX and CLIVAR but also from CliC and SPARC, IGBP, WWRP(THORPEX) and IRDR to determine focus and deliverables for this crosscut. Establish links and consider cooperation with climate watch.

3. Recommend participation of representatives of WCRP projects in ETCCDI…

Concluding remarks

• Climate Extremes cross cut still needs to be defined; it should aim at integrating across WCRP

• ETCCDI views on how this should be done as well as reactions to the JSC decisions on the cross cut where they impact on ETCCDI are welcomed

• CLIVAR SSG-15 (Sep 2007) “requested: ETCCDI to seek to provide wider range of indices on their website to cover both atmosphere and ocean indices and to take the lead in coordinating CLIVAR indices efforts (including those by CLIVAR Panels) with those of OOPC and others as appropriate”. ETCCDI may wish to consider how best to meet this request

Thank youwww.clivar.org

CLIVAR SSG-15Geneva, 11-14 September 2007

Chaired by Tim Palmer

Howard Cattle

ICPO, NOCS(ETCCDI, May 2008)

SSG-15 outline agenda

1. Welcome, introduction2. Sponsor and other programme/project input

(including WMO, OOPC, WCRP Core projects etc)3. Review of key progress and issues from chairs of

CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups4. Review of JSC cross cutting topics and plenary

discussion5. Reports from CLIVAR-affiliated projects, national

contributions and ICPO6. Breakout groups and plenary discussion based

around CLIVAR Road Map (SSG-14)7. Science lectures (N Gruber and M Beniston)8. Actions and administrative matters

CLIVAR funding allocations for 2008• CLIVAR: CLIVAR Core 9.2% 50,140• 50% Extremes 1.5% 8,175• 50% IMS (Monsoons) 3.4% 18,530• Decadal prediction 1.1% 5,995• Total 82,840• JSC allocations are said to be for “real outcomes”• The “CLIVAR Core” allocation of ~CHF50k is some 25% of

that in previous years (~CHF400k per biennium)• JPS pursuing further income but allocation tbd by JSC• ACC allocation 48,505k; Sea Level 5,995k; Modelling 18,530k• Extremes and Monsoon cross cut spends tbd with GEWEX

(and … ?)

Some possible ways forwardOption (0): Keep present structure and try to continue

on with it

Some options considered for reorganization

• Keep present structure• Agree to terminate CLIVAR early• Reduce the number of panels by closing some• Compress panels into a smaller number (e.g. single

ocean panel) • Reorganise around set of CLIVAR Science Themes• Reorganize around JSC cross cuts …

SSG-15 - outcomes

CLIVAR structure and funding• Agreed not to restructure CLIVAR in response to the

announced reduction of WCRP funds for 2008 feeling that that a major organizational change would disrupt progress

• Decided to leave the structure as it is out to at least the 2010 timeframe at which time the project would be restructured to accommodate a final analysis and assessment phase1.

• Recognized that WCRP support for meetings will be minimal. Panels and Working Groups will be required to seek other support for meetings and to seek to reduce costs by arranging meeting in the margins of Workshops/Conferences.

• Agreed SSG would provide guidance on allotment of WCRP funds for meetings

SSG-15 - outcomes

Future plans

• CLIVAR to seek major presence at the 2009 World Climate Conference-3 (J Mitchell, M Visbeck now on organising committee; M Visbeck chair of programme panel)

• SSG co-chairs to press the Chair and vice Chair of the JSC summarizing SSG concerns about the urgent need to develop a vision for WCRP beyond the sunset dates of the current projects (possible feed into WCC-3)

• Seek to hold the 2nd CLIVAR Science Conference in 2011 with a final closure meeting in 2013.

• Engage all CLIVAR panels and working groups in providing assessments of achievements and identification of major outstanding questions for input to the 2nd CLIVAR Science Conference.

SSG-15 - outcomes

OceanObs’09

• Fully endorsed the efforts and plans for the OceanObs/09 Symposium & made suggestions on format.

• Asked that CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups work with the organizers to ensure that the role(s) of CLIVAR science and scientists are fully represented.

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http://www.oceanobs09.net/

Thank youwww.clivar.org

Areas of future research identified in JSC-29 paper

• Continued development of the CEOP extremes activity• Coordination of wider drought research with US drought programme• Encourage activity to understand how modes of variability influence

extremes and what dynamical situations lead to them• Seek to reduce uncertainties of model simulation of extremes

(Modelling Summit expects to address this)• Improve methods of interpreting model output, reanalyses and

satellite products - how do we best compare models and data?• Develop consistent definitions of extremes between between

modellers and observations/scientists and practitioners• Establish regional projects - workshops bringing together

observationalists, regional modellers and planners/decision makers aimed at improving the region’s ability to reduce risk from climate-related disasters…