WCRP-WWRP/THORPEX MJO Task ForceWCRP-WWRP/THORPEX MJO Task Force

Duane WaliserJPL/Caltech/USA

Matthew WheelerABOM/Australia

SSG-18, UNESCO Paris, Franca; May 2011

Membership =>Established 2010

Follows from theUS CLIVAR MJO

Working Group

Figures: Maloney, PMEL/TAO, Nakazwa, MJO WG, Lin, Waliser

• The MJO is the dominant form of intraseasonal variability in the Tropics

• The MJO impacts a wide range of weather & climate phenomenao Monsoon Onset & Breakso ENSO+IOD Interactionso Tropical Cyclone Modulationo Mid-latitude Weather Impactso Organization of Chl, Aerosols,

Ozone, etc. variability

• Our weather & climate models have a poor representation of the MJO

• Great benefit could be derived from better predictions of the MJO - Helps to bridge the gap between weather and seasonal predictions

MotivationMotivation

TORs

Overall goal: Facilitate improvements in the representation of the MJO in weather and climate models in order increase the predictive skill of the MJO and related weather and climate phenomena• Develop process-oriented diagnostics/metrics to assess/guide physics and take advantage of more modern data (e.g. A-Train)

• Explore MJO multi-scale interactions and with emphasis on vertical structure and diabatic processes

•Expand MJO forecast metrics: e.g., boreal summer & multi-model ensemble development

•Coordinate community MJO activities (e.g. WCRP monsoon)

In late 2009, follow-on WCRP/WWRP Task Force established: “…. the MJO Task Force should be formed within the framework of the joint WWRP/THORPEX/WCRP YOTC activity, and report to the JSC-

WWRP, ICSC THORPEX and the SSG-CLIVAR.”

MJO Simulation Diagnostics for GCMs (MJOWG, J. Climate, 2009)

Observation-Based Diagnostics•Variability•Life Cycle•Mean-State•Data Set Sensitivity

Web Display and Code Availability

Adopted by NCAR/NCL

www.usclivar.org/mjo.php

Application of Diagnostics to GCMs (Kim et al. J. Climate, 2009)

Applied to 8 GCMs CAM3.5, CAM-3Z, SPCAM,

ECHAM4/OPYC, CFS, SNU, GFDL, GEOS5

SPCAM (uncoupled) ECHAM4/OPYC (coupled)

Performed best. Still Challenges!

MJOTF: 3 sub-themesMJOTF: 3 sub-themes1. MJO Forecasting and Impacts

• Experimental real-time MJO forecasts being made• Project forecast data onto the observed MJO modes

• Skill assessment, multi-model approach, etc.

2. Boreal summer monsoon ISV diagnostics and metrics• Goal of better capture the northward propagating component

(especially over the western Pacific)

3. Development of process-oriented diagnostics• To better understand the physics of the MJO/ISO• Develop metrics to stratify model performance• Develop metrics too be used for quick look diagnosis and as

a contribution to the WGNE/WGCM Metrics Panel

1. MJO Forecasting and Impacts• Experimental real-time MJO forecasts being made

• Project forecast data onto the observed MJO modes• Skill assessment, multi-model approach, etc.

2. Boreal summer monsoon ISV diagnostics and metrics• Goal of better capture the northward propagating component

(especially over the western Pacific)

3. Development of process-oriented diagnostics• To better understand the physics of the MJO/ISO• Develop metrics to stratify model performance• Develop metrics too be used for quick look diagnosis and as

a contribution to the WGNE/WGCM Metrics Panel

Why an Operational MJO Forecast Metric?Why an Operational MJO Forecast Metric?

MJO - ?MJO - ?

http://www.usclivar.org/mjo.phphttp://www.usclivar.org/mjo.php

Use of a common forecast metric allows for:• quantitative forecast skill assessment• targeted model improvements• friendly competition to motivate model improvements.• developing a multi-model ensemble forecasts

ENSO – ENSO – ““Nino 3.4Nino 3.4””Weather – 500 mb heightsWeather – 500 mb heights

ECMWF

• Based WH Indices• With Support WGNE• Operational Center

Participation• CPC/NCEP Host

Operational Forecast Metric (Gottschalck et al. BAMS, 2010)

w/ WGNE

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

10 operation centers, 20 data streams, 13 ensemble

forecasts (with 4 – 51 members)

NCEP CPTEC

Operational Forecasts (26 April 2011 – 10 May 2011)• Differences in propagation rate, amplitude, and dispersion

NCEP: 26 April start

Operational Forecasts: NCEP

NCEP: 3 May start

Operational Skill Verification (Gottschalck et al. BAMS, 2010)

w/ WGNE

MJO Modeling and Forecasts from ECMWF

Promising gains from continued model improvementsResolution, Data Assimilation, Model Physics (Tomkins et al. 2007; Bechtold et al 2008) – M. Miller.

OLR; 15-day Lead Time; 10N-10S; TOGA COARE

Courtesy F. VitartECMWF

Forecast Skill of Combined RMM1 & RMM2

80 ensemble mean start dates, daily 1st Feb., May, Aug and Nov 1989-2008

MJO Forecasts from ECMWF

Forecast Skill of RMM1 & RMM2

48 ensemble mean start dates - daily from

15 Dec 1992 to 31 Jan1993

Courtesy, F. Vitart ECMWF

Boreal Summer Monsoon ISV

Compare MJO forecasts generated by projecting onto the near-equatorial basis functions of Wheeler and Hendon (2004) to those using the OLR spatial patterns from Annamalai and Sperber (2005)

Compare MJO forecasts generated by projecting onto the near-equatorial basis functions of Wheeler and Hendon (2004) to those using the OLR spatial patterns from Annamalai and Sperber (2005)

Process Oriented / Vertical Structure Diagnostics & Metrics

Zhu et al 2010

TRMM Diabatic Heating

Moisture Precip RelationshipsKim et al 2009

Jiang et al 2009

Jiang et al 2010

CloudSat Retrievals

AIRS Temp and WV

Tian et al 2010

YOTC MJOTF, GEWEX GCSS, AAMP MJO Diabatic Heating Experiment

YOTC MJOTF, GEWEX GCSS, AAMP MJO Diabatic Heating Experiment

• Long-Term Simulations & Initialized Hindcasts During YOTC MJOs

• Focus on Diabatic Heating Structure

• Utilize TRMM & Reanalyses Q1, QR

• Encourage HiRes

Miura et al. 2007

Dec 2006 MJO

I. CLIVAR MJOWG Sponsored, Irvine, CA 2007I. CLIVAR MJOWG Sponsored, Irvine, CA 2007

Sperber and WaliserBAMS Meeting Summary 2008

New Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting the

Madden-Julian Oscillation

II. WCRP/WWRP MJOTF + CLIVAR AAMP, Busan, 2010II. WCRP/WWRP MJOTF + CLIVAR AAMP, Busan, 2010

MJO WorkshopsMJO Workshops

Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability Modeling Workshop

BAMS Meeting Summary(in press)

ISVHEIntraseasonal Variability

Hindcast Experiment

Suited for MJO & other ISV

Contacts:Bin Wang & June-Yi Lee

Close Collaboration:AAMP, YOTC, AMY, APCC

Partial Support: NOAA CTB